Author name: Shannon Garcia

youtube-tv-starts-testing-customizable-2×2-multiview-options

YouTube TV starts testing customizable 2×2 multiview options

Tech, youtube TV / /

Just in time for football to end —

YouTube TV has been promising customizable multiview for 10 months.

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For the NBA YouTube launched

Enlarge / For the NBA YouTube launched “Multiview,” which is coming to Sunday Ticket. It’s four games in a split screen.

YouTube

YouTube TV may finally get a configurable split-screen mode. Google’s cable TV replacement service launched a 2×2 “multiview” feature in 2023, but it relied on pre-made choices cooked up by some person (or maybe AI) inside Google. It’s 10 months later, and now some users on Reddit are seeing a “Build a multiview” option that would let you pick which four channels you want to watch. Cord Cutters News got confirmation from Google that the feature is now being tested.

The current multiview is a fun way to stay on top of multiple games, but getting the games you want is an awkward experience. I’ve been watching NFL Sunday Ticket through YouTube TV this year, and there will be times when there are nine games on simultaneously, and you get only a handful of pre-made multiview options to sift through. Is your desired combination of four games in one of those multiview options? You’d better hope so! The canned combinations only get more awkward as the day goes on: one game ends early, and the station cuts to coverage of another game, and now two of your four windows have duplicate games. If an early game runs long and you want to watch the end next to an already-started late game, that was never an option either. The canned options were always four NFL games, too. If you wanted to watch the NFL and some non-NFL content, you were out of luck. You were easily looking at hundreds of multiview possibilities, so canned selections don’t scale well at all.

The Reddit user claims to have access to the feature and says that, during NBA games, the feature is limited to only selecting other NBA games, but at least that is better than scrolling through random pre-made combinations.

YouTube told Cord Cutters News that the feature would roll out to all devices that currently support multiview, but YouTube did not say when that would happen. YouTube has been promising customizable multiview since the feature launched last March. It also promised mixing and matching content types back in June, but that feature hasn’t widely launched, either. Testing is a good sign, at least.

The calls for customizable multiview have been so loud that the feature request once made it into a Deadline interview with YouTube Chief Business Officer Mary Ellen Coe. Without explaining too much, Coe called the feature “a very hard thing to do technically.”

YouTube TV starts testing customizable 2×2 multiview options Read More »

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Ars Technica used in malware campaign with never-before-seen obfuscation

ars technica, Biz & IT, malware, Security / /

WHEN USERS ATTACK —

Vimeo also used by legitimate user who posted booby-trapped content.

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Ars Technica used in malware campaign with never-before-seen obfuscation

Getty Images

Ars Technica was recently used to serve second-stage malware in a campaign that used a never-before-seen attack chain to cleverly cover its tracks, researchers from security firm Mandiant reported Tuesday.

A benign image of a pizza was uploaded to a third-party website and was then linked with a URL pasted into the “about” page of a registered Ars user. Buried in that URL was a string of characters that appeared to be random—but were actually a payload. The campaign also targeted the video-sharing site Vimeo, where a benign video was uploaded and a malicious string was included in the video description. The string was generated using a technique known as Base 64 encoding. Base 64 converts text into a printable ASCII string format to represent binary data. Devices already infected with the first-stage malware used in the campaign automatically retrieved these strings and installed the second stage.

Not typically seen

“This is a different and novel way we’re seeing abuse that can be pretty hard to detect,” Mandiant researcher Yash Gupta said in an interview. “This is something in malware we have not typically seen. It’s pretty interesting for us and something we wanted to call out.”

The image posted on Ars appeared in the about profile of a user who created an account on November 23. An Ars representative said the photo, showing a pizza and captioned “I love pizza,” was removed by Ars staff on December 16 after being tipped off by email from an unknown party. The Ars profile used an embedded URL that pointed to the image, which was automatically populated into the about page. The malicious base 64 encoding appeared immediately following the legitimate part of the URL. The string didn’t generate any errors or prevent the page from loading.

Pizza image posted by user.

Enlarge / Pizza image posted by user.

Malicious string in URL.

Enlarge / Malicious string in URL.

Mandiant researchers said there were no consequences for people who may have viewed the image, either as displayed on the Ars page or on the website that hosted it. It’s also not clear that any Ars users visited the about page.

Devices that were infected by the first stage automatically accessed the malicious string at the end of the URL. From there, they were infected with a second stage.

The video on Vimeo worked similarly, except that the string was included in the video description.

Ars representatives had nothing further to add. Vimeo representatives didn’t immediately respond to an email.

The campaign came from a threat actor Mandiant tracks as UNC4990, which has been active since at least 2020 and bears the hallmarks of being motivated by financial gain. The group has already used a separate novel technique to fly under the radar. That technique spread the second stage using a text file that browsers and normal text editors showed to be blank.

Opening the same file in a hex editor—a tool for analyzing and forensically investigating binary files—showed that a combination of tabs, spaces, and new lines were arranged in a way that encoded executable code. Like the technique involving Ars and Vimeo, the use of such a file is something the Mandiant researchers had never seen before. Previously, UNC4990 used GitHub and GitLab.

The initial stage of the malware was transmitted by infected USB drives. The drives installed a payload Mandiant has dubbed explorerps1. Infected devices then automatically reached out to either the malicious text file or else to the URL posted on Ars or the video posted to Vimeo. The base 64 strings in the image URL or video description, in turn, caused the malware to contact a site hosting the second stage. The second stage of the malware, tracked as Emptyspace, continuously polled a command-and-control server that, when instructed, would download and execute a third stage.

Mandiant

Mandiant has observed the installation of this third stage in only one case. This malware acts as a backdoor the researchers track as Quietboard. The backdoor, in that case, went on to install a cryptocurrency miner.

Anyone who is concerned they may have been infected by any of the malware covered by Mandiant can check the indicators of compromise section in Tuesday’s post.

Ars Technica used in malware campaign with never-before-seen obfuscation Read More »

lawsuit:-citibank-refused-to-reimburse-scam-victims-who-lost-“life-savings”

Lawsuit: Citibank refused to reimburse scam victims who lost “life savings”

citibank fraud, Policy / /

Online banking fraud —

Citibank’s poor security helped scammers steal millions, NY AG’s lawsuit says.

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A large Citibank logo on the outside of a bank building.

Enlarge / The Citibank logo on a bank in New York City in January 2024.

Citibank has illegally refused to reimburse scam victims who lost money due partly to Citibank’s poor online security practices, New York Attorney General Letitia James alleged in a lawsuit filed today in US District Court for the Southern District of New York.

“The lawsuit alleges that Citi does not implement strong online protections to stop unauthorized account takeovers, misleads account holders about their rights after their accounts are hacked and funds are stolen, and illegally denies reimbursement to victims of fraud,” James’ office said in a press release.

The AG’s office alleged that Citi customers “have lost their life savings, their children’s college funds, or even money needed to support their day-to-day lives as a result of Citi’s illegal and deceptive acts and practices.”

“Defendant Citi has not deployed sufficiently robust data security measures to protect consumer financial accounts, respond appropriately to red flags, or limit theft by scam,” the lawsuit said. “Instead, Citi has overpromised and underdelivered on security, reacted ineffectively to fraud alerts, misled consumers, and summarily denied their claims. Citi’s illegal and deceptive practices have cost New Yorkers millions.”

Citi approved large wire transfers

Describing the case of a New York woman who lost $35,000 to a scammer in July 2022, the AG’s press release stated:

She was reviewing her online account and found a message that her account had been suspended and was instructed to call a phone number. She called the number provided and a scammer told her that he would send her Citi codes to verify recent suspicious activity. The scammer then transferred all of the money in the customer’s three savings accounts into her checking account, changed her online passwords, and attempted a $35,000 wire transfer.

Citi attempted to verify the wire transfer by calling the customer, but she was working and did not see the call at the time. Less than an hour later, the scammer attempted another $35,000 wire transfer, which Citi approved without ever having made direct contact with the customer. She lost nearly everything she had saved, and Citi refused to reimburse her.

In an October 2021 incident, a customer clicked a link in a scammer’s message “but did not provide additional information” and then “called her local branch to report the suspicious activity but was told not to worry about it,” the AG’s office said.

“Three days later, the customer discovered that a scammer changed her banking password, enrolled in online wire transfers, transferred $70,000 from her savings to her checking account, and then electronically executed a $40,000 wire transfer, none of which was consistent with her past account activity,” the AG’s office said. “For weeks, the customer continued to contact the bank and submit affidavits, but in the end, she was told that her claim for fraud was denied.”

Citi: No refunds when people “follow criminals’ instructions”

Citi defended its security and refund practices in a statement provided to Ars.

“Citi closely follows all laws and regulations related to wire transfers and works extremely hard to prevent threats from affecting our clients and to assist them in recovering losses when possible. Banks are not required to make clients whole when those clients follow criminals’ instructions and banks can see no indication the clients are being deceived,” the company said.

Citi acknowledged that there has been an “industry-wide surge in wire fraud during the last several years,” and said it has “taken proactive steps to safeguard our clients’ accounts with leading security protocols, intuitive fraud prevention tools, clear insights about the latest scams, and driving client awareness and education. Our actions have reduced client wire fraud losses significantly, and we remain committed to investing in fraud prevention measures to help our clients secure their accounts against emerging threats.”

James’ lawsuit argues that Citibank must provide reimbursement under the Electronic Fund Transfer Act (EFTA), a US law passed in 1978. “As with credit cards, so long as consumers promptly alert banks to unauthorized activity, the EFTA limits losses and requires reimbursement of stolen funds. These consumer protections cannot be waived or modified by contract… Under the EFTA, Citi’s electronic debits of consumers’ accounts are unauthorized and Citi must reimburse all debited amounts,” the lawsuit said.

The lawsuit seeks a permanent injunction against Citibank, an accounting of customer losses over the last six years, payment of restitution and damages to harmed consumers, and civil penalties.

Lawsuit: Citibank refused to reimburse scam victims who lost “life savings” Read More »

rhyming-ai-powered-clock-sometimes-lies-about-the-time,-makes-up-words

Rhyming AI-powered clock sometimes lies about the time, makes up words

AI, AI clock, Biz & IT, chatgpt, chatgtp, confabulation, hallucination, hallucinations, machine learning, Matt Webb / /

Confabulation time —

Poem/1 Kickstarter seeks $103K for fun ChatGPT-fed clock that may hallucinate the time.

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A CAD render of the Poem/1 sitting on a bookshelf.

Enlarge / A CAD render of the Poem/1 sitting on a bookshelf.

On Tuesday, product developer Matt Webb launched a Kickstarter funding project for a whimsical e-paper clock called the “Poem/1” that tells the current time using AI and rhyming poetry. It’s powered by the ChatGPT API, and Webb says that sometimes ChatGPT will lie about the time or make up words to make the rhymes work.

“Hey so I made a clock. It tells the time with a brand new poem every minute, composed by ChatGPT. It’s sometimes profound, and sometimes weird, and occasionally it fibs about what the actual time is to make a rhyme work,” Webb writes on his Kickstarter page.

The $126 clock is the product of Webb’s Acts Not Facts, which he bills as “.” Despite the net-connected service aspect of the clock, Webb says it will not require a subscription to function.

A labeled CAD rendering of the Poem/1 clock, representing its final shipping configuration.

Enlarge / A labeled CAD rendering of the Poem/1 clock, representing its final shipping configuration.

There are 1,440 minutes in a day, so Poem/1 needs to display 1,440 unique poems to work. The clock features a monochrome e-paper screen and pulls its poetry rhymes via Wi-Fi from a central server run by Webb’s company. To save money, that server pulls poems from ChatGPT’s API and will share them out to many Poem/1 clocks at once. This prevents costly API fees that would add up if your clock were querying OpenAI’s servers 1,440 times a day, non-stop, forever. “I’m reserving a % of the retail price from each clock in a bank account to cover AI and server costs for 5 years,” Webb writes.

For hackers, Webb says that you’ll be able to change the back-end server URL of the Poem/1 from the default to whatever you want, so it can display custom text every minute of the day. Webb says he will document and publish the API when Poem/1 ships.

Hallucination time

A photo of a Poem/1 prototype with a hallucinated time, according to Webb.

Enlarge / A photo of a Poem/1 prototype with a hallucinated time, according to Webb.

Given the Poem/1’s large language model pedigree, it’s perhaps not surprising that Poem/1 may sometimes make up things (also called “hallucination” or “confabulation” in the AI field) to fulfill its task. The LLM that powers ChatGPT is always searching for the most likely next word in a sequence, and sometimes factuality comes second to fulfilling that mission.

Further down on the Kickstarter page, Webb provides a photo of his prototype Poem/1 where the screen reads, “As the clock strikes eleven forty two, / I rhyme the time, as I always do.” Just below, Webb warns, “Poem/1 fibs occasionally. I don’t believe it was actually 11.42 when this photo was taken. The AI hallucinated the time in order to make the poem work. What we do for art…”

In other clocks, the tendency to unreliably tell the time might be a fatal flaw. But judging by his humorous angle on the Kickstarter page, Webb apparently sees the clock as more of a fun art project than a precision timekeeping instrument. “Don’t rely on this clock in situations where timekeeping is vital,” Webb writes, “such as if you work in air traffic control or rocket launches or the finish line of athletics competitions.”

Poem/1 also sometimes takes poetic license with vocabulary to tell the time. During a humorous moment in the Kickstarter promotional video, Webb looks at his clock prototype and reads the rhyme, “A clock that defies all rhyme and reason / 4: 30 PM, a temporal teason.” Then he says, “I had to look ‘teason’ up. It doesn’t mean anything, so it’s a made-up word.”

Rhyming AI-powered clock sometimes lies about the time, makes up words Read More »

raspberry-pi-is-planning-a-london-ipo,-but-its-ceo-expects-“no-change”-in-focus

Raspberry Pi is planning a London IPO, but its CEO expects “no change” in focus

ARM, arm holdings plc, Biz & IT, eben upton, IPO, Raspberry Pi, Stock Market, Tech / /

Just enough RAM to move markets —

Eben Upton says hobbyists remain “incredibly important” while he’s involved.

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Raspberry Pi 5 with Active Cooler installed on a wood desktop

Enlarge / Is it not a strange fate that we should suffer so much fear and doubt for so small a thing? So small a thing!

Andrew Cunningham

The business arm of Raspberry Pi is preparing to make an initial public offering (IPO) in London. CEO Eben Upton tells Ars that should the IPO happen, it will let Raspberry Pi’s not-for-profit side expand by “at least a factor of 2X.” And while it’s “an understandable thing” that Raspberry Pi enthusiasts could be concerned, “while I’m involved in running the thing, I don’t expect people to see any change in how we do things.”

CEO Eben Upton confirmed in an interview with Bloomberg News that Raspberry Pi had appointed bankers at London firms Peel Hunt and Jefferies to prepare for “when the IPO market reopens.”

Raspberry previously raised money from Sony and semiconductor and software design firm ARM, and it sought public investment. Upton denied or didn’t quite deny IPO rumors in 2021, and Bloomberg reported Raspberry Pi was considering an IPO in early 2022. After ARM took a minority stake in the company in November 2023, Raspberry Pi was valued at roughly 400 million pounds, or just over $500 million.

Given the company’s gradual recovery from pandemic supply chain shortages, and the success of the Raspberry Pi 5 launch, the company’s IPO will likely jump above that level, even with a listing in the UK rather than the more typical US IPO. Upton told The Register that “the business is in a much better place than it was last time we looked at it [an IPO]. We partly stopped because the markets got bad. And we partly stopped because our business became unpredictable.”

News of the potential transformation of Raspberry Pi Ltd from the private arm of the education-minded Raspberry Pi Foundation into a publicly traded company, obligated to generate profits for shareholders, reverberated about the way you’d expect on Reddit, Hacker News, and elsewhere. Many pointed with concern to the company’s decision to prioritize small business customers requiring Pi boards for their businesses as a portent of what investors might prioritize. Many expressed confusion over the commercial entity’s relationship to the foundation and what an IPO meant for that arrangement.

Seeing comments after the Bloomberg story, Upton said he understood concerns about a potential shift in mission or a change in the pricing structure. “It’s a good thing, in that people care about us,” Upton said in a phone interview. But he noted that Raspberry Pi’s business arm has had both strategic and private investors in its history, along with a majority shareholder in its Foundation (which in 2016 owned 75 percent of shares), and that he doesn’t see changes to what Pi has built.

“What Raspberry Pi [builds] are the products we want to buy, and then we sell them to people like us,” Upton said. “Certainly, while I’m involved in it, I can’t imagine an environment in which the hobbyists are not going to be incredibly important.”

The IPO is “about the foundation,” Upton said, with that charitable arm selling some of its majority stake in the business entity to raise funds and expand. (“We’ve not cooked up some new way for a not-for-profit to do an IPO, no,” he noted.) The foundation was previously funded by dividends from the business side, Upton said. “We do this transaction, and the proceeds of that transaction allow the foundation to train teachers, run clubs, expand programs, and… do those things at, at least, a factor of 2X. That’s what I’m most excited about.”

Asked about concerns that Raspberry Pi could focus its attention on higher-volume customers after public investors are involved, Upton said there would be “no change” to the kinds of products Pi makes, and that makers are “culturally important to us.” Upton noted that Raspberry Pi, apart from a single retail store, doesn’t sell Pis directly but through resellers. Margin structures at Raspberry Pi have “stayed the same all the way through,” Upton said and should remain so after the IPO.

Raspberry Pi’s lower-cost products, like the Zero 2 W and Pico, are fulfilling the educational and tinkering missions of the project, now at far better capability and lower price points than the original Pi products, Upton said. “If people think that an IPO means we’re going to … push prices up, push the margins up, push down the feature sets, the only answer we can give is, watch us. Keep watching,” he said. “Let’s look at it in 15, 20 years’ time.”

This post was updated at 2: 30 pm ET on January 30 to include an Ars interview with Raspberry Pi CEO Eben Upton.

Raspberry Pi is planning a London IPO, but its CEO expects “no change” in focus Read More »

sim-swapping-ring-stole-$400m-in-crypto-from-a-us-company,-officials-allege

SIM-swapping ring stole $400M in crypto from a US company, officials allege

Cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency scam, cryptocurrency scheme, cryptocurrency wallets, device fraud, Identity theft, mobile device security, Policy, sim swap, sim swapping, wire fraud / /

Undetected for years —

Scheme allegedly targeted Apple, AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile stores in 13 states.

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SIM-swapping ring stole $400M in crypto from a US company, officials allege

The US may have uncovered the nation’s largest “SIM swap” scheme yet, charging a Chicago man and co-conspirators with allegedly stealing $400 million in cryptocurrency by targeting over 50 victims in more than a dozen states, including one company.

A recent indictment alleged that Robert Powell—using online monikers “R,” “R$,” and “ElSwapo1″—was the “head of a SIM swapping group” called the “Powell SIM Swapping Crew.” He allegedly conspired with Indiana man Carter Rohn (aka “Carti” and “Punslayer”) and Colorado woman Emily Hernandez (allegedly aka “Em”) to gain access to victims’ devices and “carry out fraudulent SIM swap attacks” between March 2021 and April 2023.

SIM-swap attacks occur when someone fraudulently induces a wireless carrier to “reassign a cell phone number from the legitimate subscriber or user’s SIM card to a SIM card controlled by a criminal actor,” the indictment said. Once the swap occurs, the bad actor can defeat multi-factor authentication protections and access online accounts to steal data or money.

Powell’s accused crew allegedly used identification card printers to forge documents, then posed as victims visiting Apple, AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile retail stores in Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Utah, Nebraska, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Texas, New Mexico, Tennessee, Virginia, and the District of Columbia.

According to the indictment, many of the alleged victims did not suffer financial losses, but those that did were allegedly hit hard. The hardest hit appears to be an employee of a company whose AT&T device was allegedly commandeered at a Texas retail store, resulting in over $400 million being allegedly transferred from the employee’s company to co-conspirators’ financial accounts. Other individual victims allegedly lost cryptocurrency valued between $15,000 and more than $1 million.

Co-conspirators are accused of masking stolen funds, sometimes by allegedly hiding transfers in unhosted or self-hosted virtual currency wallets. If convicted, all stolen funds must be forfeited, the indictment said.

Powell has been charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit aggravated identity theft and access device fraud, Special Agent Brent Bledsoe said in the indictment. This Friday, Powell faces a detention hearing, where he has been ordered by the US Marshals Service to appear in person.

Powell’s attorney, Gal Pissetzky, told Ars that Powell has no comment on the indictment at this time.

SIM swaps escalating in US?

When Powell’s alleged scheme began in 2021, the FBI issued a warning, noting that criminals were increasingly using SIM-swap attacks, fueling total losses that year of $68 million.

Since then, US law enforcement has made several arrests, but none of the uncovered schemes come close to the alleged losses from the thefts Powell’s crew are being accused of.

In 2022, a Florida man, Nicholas Truglia, was sentenced to 18 months for stealing more than $20 million from a single victim. On top of forfeiting the stolen funds, Truglia was also ordered to forfeit more than $900,000 as a criminal penalty. According to security blogger Brian Krebs, Truglia was connected to a group that allegedly stole $100 million using SIM-swap attacks.

Last year, there were a few notable arrests. In October, the Department of Justice sentenced a hacker, Jordan Dave Persad, to 30 months for stealing nearly $1 million from “dozens of victims.” And in December, four Florida men received sentences between eight and 27 months for stealing more than $509,475 in SIM-swap attacks.

Ars could not find any FBI warnings since 2021 raising awareness that losses from SIM-swap attacks may be further increasing to amounts as eye-popping as the alleged losses in Powell’s case.

A DOJ official was unable to confirm if this is the biggest SIM-swapping scheme alleged in the US, directing Ars to another office. Ars will update this report with any new information the DOJ provides.

US officials seem aware that some bad actors attempting SIM-swap attacks appear to be getting bolder. Earlier this year, the Securities and Exchange Commission was targeted in an attack that commandeered the agency’s account on X, formerly known as Twitter. That attack led to a misleading X post falsely announcing the approval of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, causing a brief spike in bitcoin’s price.

To protect consumers from SIM-swap attacks, the Federal Communications Commission announced new rules last year to “require wireless providers to adopt secure methods of authenticating a customer before redirecting a customer’s phone number to a new device or provider. The new rules require wireless providers to immediately notify customers whenever a SIM change or port-out request is made on customers’ accounts and take additional steps to protect customers from SIM swap and port-out fraud.” But an Ars review found these new rules may be too vague to be effective.

In 2021, when European authorities busted a SIM-swapping ring allegedly targeting high-profile individuals worldwide, Europol advised consumers to avoid becoming targets. Tips included using multifactor authentication, resisting associating sensitive accounts with mobile phone numbers, keeping devices updated, avoiding replying to suspicious emails or callers requesting sensitive information, and limiting personal data shared online. Consumers can also request the highest security settings possible from mobile carriers and are encouraged to always use stronger, longer security PINs or passwords to protect devices.

SIM-swapping ring stole $400M in crypto from a US company, officials allege Read More »

japan-government-accepts-it’s-no-longer-the-’90s,-stops-requiring-floppy-disks

Japan government accepts it’s no longer the ’90s, stops requiring floppy disks

floppy disks, Japan, Policy, Tech / /

“war on floppy disks” —

Government amends 34 ordinances to no longer require diskettes.

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A pile of floppy disks

The Japanese government is finally letting go of floppy disks and CD-ROMs. It recently announced amendments to laws requiring the use of the physical media formats for submissions to the government for things like alcohol business, mining, and aircraft regulation.

Japan’s minister for Digital Transformation, Taro Kono, announced the “war on floppy discs” in August 2022. Before the recent law changes, about 1,900 government procedures required the use of obsolete disk formats, including floppy disks, CDs, and MiniDiscs, for submissions from citizens and businesses.

Kono announced intentions to amend regulations to support online submissions and cloud data storage, changing requirements that go back several decades, as noted recently by Japanese news site SoraNews24.

On January 22, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced that it changed 34 ordinances to eradicate the requirements of floppy disks. As per a Google translation of a January 23 article from the Japanese tech website PC Watch, the ministry has deleted requirements of floppy disks and CD-ROMs for various ordinances, including some pertaining to quarrying, energy, and weapons manufacturing regulations.

METI’s announcement, as per a Google translation, highlighted the Japanese government’s “many provisions stipulating the use of specific recording media such as floppy disks regarding application and notification methods,” as well as “situations that are hindering the online implementation of procedures.”

Floppy disks first became commercially available in 1971 through IBM. They evolved through the decades, including with the release of the 3.5-inch floppy in 1983 via Sony. With usage growing and peaking in the ’80s and ’90s, the floppy disk couldn’t compete with the likes of CD-ROMs, USB thumb drives, and other more advanced forms of storage made available by the late ’90s. Sony, the last floppy disk manufacturer standing, stopped making floppies in 2011.

Floppy disks aren’t equipped for many of today’s technological needs, with storage capacity maxing at 1.44MB. Still, government bodies in Japan have been using them regularly, leading, at times, to complications. For example, in 2021, it was reported that Tokyo police lost a pair of floppy disks that had information about 38 public housing applicants.

Japan’s reliance on dated tech is something METI is tackling, but reports have noted resistance from some government bodies. This includes local governments and the Ministry of Justice resisting moving to cloud-based admin systems, per the Japan News newspaper. Japan is ranked number 32 out of 64 economies in the Institute for Management Development’s (IMD’s) 2023 World Digital Competitiveness Ranking, which the IMD says “measures the capacity and readiness of 64 economies to adopt and explore digital technologies as a key driver for economic transformation in business, government, and wider society.”

Some have attributed Japan’s sluggish movement from older technologies to its success in establishing efficiencies with analog tech. Governmental bureaucracy has also been listed as a factor.

Japan isn’t the only entity holding on to the floppy, though. Despite a single photo these days being enough to overfill a floppy disk, various industries—like embroidery, medical devices, avionics, and plastic molding—still rely on them. Even the US Air Force stopped using 8-inch floppy disks in its missile launch control system in 2019. And last year, we reported on an Illinois Chuck E. Cheese using a 3.5-inch floppy for its animatronics system.

US-based Floppydisk.com told The Register that Japan’s rule changes shouldn’t endanger the business. Its Japanese customers are “mostly hobbyists and private parties that have machines or musical equipment that continue to use floppy disks,” Tom Persky, who runs the site, said. Floppydisk.com also sells data-transfer services but told The Register in 2022 that the bulk of revenue is from blank floppy disk sales. At the time, Persky said he expected the company to last until at least 2026.

Japan government accepts it’s no longer the ’90s, stops requiring floppy disks Read More »

boeing-withdraws-bid-for-safety-exemption-as-details-on-missing-bolts-emerge

Boeing withdraws bid for safety exemption as details on missing bolts emerge

Boeing, boeing 737 max 9, boeing door plug, Policy / /

Missing bolts —

Boeing workers apparently failed to replace bolts after reinstalling door plug.

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Tarp-like material covers a large opening in the side of a Boeing airplane.

Enlarge / A hole is covered where a door plug blew off a Boeing 737 Max 9 plane used by Alaska Airlines.

Getty Images

Boeing is withdrawing an application for a safety exemption related to its 737 Max 7 aircraft as more details emerge on the cause of a near-disaster involving a 737 Max 9 plane used by Alaska Airlines.

While initial inspections of Alaska Airlines’ fleet of Boeing 737 Max 9s turned up “many” loose bolts, a Wall Street Journal report yesterday said it now appears that “bolts needed to secure part of an Alaska Airlines jet that blew off in midair appear to have been missing when the plane left Boeing’s factory.”

“Boeing and other industry officials increasingly believe the plane maker’s employees failed to put back the bolts when they reinstalled a 737 Max 9 [door plug] after opening or removing it during production, according to people familiar with the matter,” the article said.

In the incident on January 5, a Boeing 737 Max 9 lost a passenger door plug while in flight, causing decompression of the passenger cabin and forcing an emergency landing (a door plug is used instead of an emergency exit door in some planes). The Federal Aviation Administration subsequently grounded 171 Boeing planes and informed Boeing that the agency “will not grant any production expansion of the Max, including the 737-9 Max.”

737 Max 7 application withdrawn

With the 737 Max 9 investigation continuing, Boeing confirmed this week that it withdrew an application for a safety exemption for the 737 Max 7. Boeing was facing pressure from US Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), who chairs a subcommittee on aviation safety and operations. Duckworth last week urged the FAA to reject Boeing’s request for “an exemption from safety standards to prematurely allow the 737 Max 7 to enter commercial service.”

“The exemption Boeing seeks involves an anti-ice system that can overheat and cause the engine nacelle to break apart and fall off,” Duckworth wrote. “This could generate fuselage-penetrating debris, which could endanger passengers in window seats behind the wing and/or result in a loss of control of the aircraft.”

Even though a permanent fix is not expected until 2026, Boeing “is asking the FAA to allow the Max 7 to fly with merely a warning to flight crews to remember to manually turn off the anti-ice system when the aircraft emerges from icy conditions,” Duckworth wrote. “This is a request for the FAA to certify a commercial aircraft with a single point of failure subject to human error with potentially catastrophic consequences.”

In a statement provided to Ars and other media outlets, Boeing said it is withdrawing the request for an exemption. “We have informed the FAA that we are withdrawing our request for a time-limited exemption relating to the engine inlet deicing system on the 737-7,” Boeing said. “While we are confident that the proposed time-limited exemption for that system follows established FAA processes to ensure safe operation, we will instead incorporate an engineering solution that will be completed during the certification process.

“As always, the FAA will determine the timing of certification and we will follow their lead every step of the way,” Boeing added. “We’re committed to being transparent, listening to all our stakeholders and taking action to strengthen safety and quality at Boeing.”

Duckworth also met Thursday with Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun. “After this bold-face attempt to put profits over the safety of the flying public with the Max 7 and this month’s horrific Alaska Airlines incident aboard the Max 9, I am as committed as ever to doing everything I can to ensure Boeing aircraft meet all safety standards—and I made that clear in today’s meeting,” Duckworth said.

Details suggest missing bolts on Max 9

The Wall Street Journal report about the Max 9 investigation said that an “apparent absence of markings” on the door plug is one factor suggesting that bolts were missing when the plane left Boeing’s factory. The WSJ said its sources “also pointed to paperwork and process lapses at Boeing’s Renton, Wash., factory.”

“The National Transportation Safety Board has been conducting metallurgical analysis of the [door plug] but hasn’t released the results of the testing. Laboratory tests might show whether the bolts were in place or not there at all,” the article said.

When contacted by Ars today, the NTSB said the agency’s preliminary report is slated to be released on Wednesday and “will include all of the factual information that we have developed at this point in the investigation.” (Update at 3: 38pm ET: The NTSB now says the report will not be issued on Wednesday, and a new date for its release has not been set.)

Boeing said it was unable to comment on the probe because “only the US National Transportation Safety Board can release information about the investigation.”

Boeing withdraws bid for safety exemption as details on missing bolts emerge Read More »

microsoft-edge-is-apparently-usurping-chrome-on-people’s-pcs

Microsoft Edge is apparently usurping Chrome on people’s PCs

chrome, Microsoft Edge, Tech / /

invasion of the browser snatchers —

An apparent bug that plays into criticisms of how Microsoft pushes Edge.

–

Microsoft Edge is apparently usurping Chrome on people’s PCs

If you run the Chrome browser in Windows 10 or 11 and you’ve suddenly discovered that you’re running Microsoft Edge instead, you’re not alone. The Verge’s Tom Warren reports that he and multiple other users on social media and Microsoft’s support forums have suddenly found their Chrome browsing sessions mysteriously replicated in Edge.

Without an official comment from Microsoft, Warren posits that the tab-snatching happened because of a bug or an inadvertently clicked-through dialog box that triggers a feature in Edge that’s meant to make it easier to (intentionally) switch browsers. The setting, which can be accessed by typing edge://settings/profiles/importBrowsingData into the browser’s address bar, offers to import recent browsing data from Chrome every time you launch Edge, as opposed to the one-time data import it offers for Firefox.

The setting in question, as seen on a Windows 11 23H2 system running Edge 122. It will offer to continuously import data from Chrome, but not from other browsers. Edge will offer a one-time data import from Firefox, but most other browsers (like Opera) don't show up here.

Enlarge / The setting in question, as seen on a Windows 11 23H2 system running Edge 122. It will offer to continuously import data from Chrome, but not from other browsers. Edge will offer a one-time data import from Firefox, but most other browsers (like Opera) don’t show up here.

Andrew Cunningham

Assuming it is a bug, this data-importing issue is hard to distinguish from some of Microsoft’s actual officially sanctioned, easy-to-reproduce tactics for pushing Edge. I encountered two of these while installing Chrome on a PC for this piece—one when I navigated to the Chrome download page and another across the top of Edge’s Settings pages after I had set another browser as my default.

Microsoft has also used system notifications, special Edge-specific pop-up messages, and full-screen post-update messages about “recommended browser settings” to push Windows users into running Edge and using Bing. (I personally would love it if PCs I’ve been using for months or years would stop asking me to “finish setting up [my] device.”)

Edge is based on the same Chromium browsing engine as Chrome, and most users probably wouldn’t notice much of a difference in how most pages render in either browser. But Edge is centered on Microsoft’s products and services, starting with a Microsoft account but also extending to coupon codes and other shopping notifications, the Microsoft 365 app suite, and generative AI tools like Image Designer and the Copilot chatbot.

Microsoft has gotten more aggressive about how it pushes everything from Microsoft account sign-in to Microsoft 365 and Game Pass subscriptions in recent years, something that has made a “clean” Windows install feel much less clean than it used to. Whether this Edge data-import thing is a bug, it’s telling that it’s not immediately obvious whether it’s a bug or something that Microsoft did intentionally.

Microsoft Edge is apparently usurping Chrome on people’s PCs Read More »

childhood-and-education-roundup-#4

Childhood and Education Roundup #4

Childhood / /

Before we begin, I will note that I have indeed written various thoughts about the three college presidents that appeared before Congress and the resulting controversies, including the disputes regarding plagiarism. However I have excluded them from this post.

Washington Post Editorial Board says schools should ban smartphones, and parents should help make this happen rather than more often opposing such bans in order to make logistical coordination easier.

I agree with the editorial board. Even when not in use, having a phone in one’s pocket is a continuous distraction. The ability to use the phone creates immense social and other pressures to use it, or think about using it, continuously. If we are going to keep doing this physically required school thing at all, students need to be fully device-free during the school day except for where we intentionally want them to have access. Having a phone on standby won’t work.

The Netherlands is going to try it for January 2024, including all electronic devices.

Jonathan Haidt, man with a message, highlights Vertex Partnership Academies, which locks all student electronic devices away all day and claims this is a big win all around. They say even the kids appreciate it. With phones available, other kids know you have the option to be on your phone and on social media, so you pay a social price if you do not allow constant distraction. Whereas with phones physically locked away, you can’t do anything during school hours, so your failure to do so goes unpunished.

Some old school straight talk from David Sedaris. He is wrong, also he is not wrong. He is funny, also he is very funny.

This explanation is one more thing that, as much as I hate actually writing without capital letters, makes me more positive on Altman:

Sam Altman: mildly interesting observation:

i always use capital letters when writing by hand, but usually only type them when doing something that somehow reminds me of being in school.

And of course, your periodic reminder department:

Alyssa Vance: In California, it is legally rape for two high school seniors to have consensual sex with each other. This is dumb, and people should be allowed to say it’s dumb without being accused of coddling rapists.

I do not pretend to know exactly what the right rules are, but this is not it. If there is no substantial age gap, it shouldn’t be statutory rape.

A disobedience guide for children, addressed to those facing physical abuse. The issue is that children mostly only have the ability to inflict damage. You can break windows, or hit back, or tell people you’re being abused, or run away, or otherwise make the situation worse to get what you want. A lot of unfortunately this is a symmetric weapon. A child can inflict a lot of damage and make life worse if they want to do that, and can do that with any goal in mind however righteous or tyrannical. The asymmetry hopefully arrives in a selective willingness to go to total war.

Bad stuff that happens to you in childhood makes you a less happy adult (direct). Bad stuff here includes financial difficulties, death of a parent, divorce, prolonged absence of a parent, health issues, bullying and physical or sexual abuse. Definitely a study I expect to replicate and that we mostly did not need to run, yet I am coming around to the need to have studies showing such obvious conclusions. People are often rather dense and effect sizes matter.

The effect sizes here seem moderate. For example, divorce was associated with an 0.07 point decrease in happiness on a scale where very happy is 3 and not too happy is 1. That’s a big deal if real, also not overwhelming.

What worries me are the controls. Adverse childhood events are often not accidents or coincidences. Associating bad events with bad outcomes does not tell us much about how much of that relationship is causal. I do not find the additional variables in their regression models to be doing enough to capture the hidden variables.

That was me being polite. The top comment at MR rips into the paper and writes it off as useless, pointing out all the bad outcomes and causes are correlated.

We constantly face the clash between the story of nature, where genetics is claimed to overwhelmingly be the main determinant of outcomes and who claim to back it up with robust statistics, and nurture, where we can look at or talk to people and see the obvious impact of the events in their lives, and who are now trying to back that up with statistics. Genetics obviously matter a lot as any parent of multiple children knows, but also the events that happen doubtless matter a lot too. I would expect very bad outcomes from any parents who actually believe otherwise. Luckily, as in the case of Bryan Caplan who clearly puts in tons of mindful effort, this does not seem to often translate into actually acting as if the other stuff doesn’t matter.

A different kind of choice: Letting children skip grades causes gifted (top 1% in math) adolescents to earn more doctorates, publish mor papers, file more patents, and do it all at earlier ages.

Emmett Shear: Anecdotally, from knowing many close friends who skipped multiple grades, the primary impact seems to be academic. Grade-skippers seem to excel in school, but at the cost of other areas of achievement. Which makes sense because you’re ramping academic difficulty.

My anecdata is that everyone I know who skipped grades came out far the better for it, and we should do vastly more of this. The whole ‘emotional development’ form of argument seems crazy to me. Why would you want to take such a child and force them to ‘emotionally develop’ with dumber children their own age?

Ideal of course are schools that track each subject on its own, so you can skip kids around as appropriate and avoid boring them out of their minds.

Sweden’s schools minister declares their free school system a failure. Why? The schools have gotten international acclaim, but recently performance is on the decline, so she is blaming the possibility that someone, somewhere might be earning a profit. There is wide declaration that ‘joint stock companies are not a long-term sustainable form of operation to run school activities’ as the union claims. But, again, why? What makes this different from all other services?

The core justification is that the state of paying, and this allows profit from spending less and providing poor quality education. But if that is the case, why not compete by offering a better school that is still profitable? No explanation is given.

Gated paper claims private school competition is very good for public schools, ungated working version here.

Abstract: Using a rich dataset that merges student-level school records with birth records, and leveraging a student fixed effects design, we explore how a Florida private school choice program affected public school students’ outcomes as the program matured and scaled up.

We observe growing benefits (higher standardized test scores and lower absenteeism and suspension rates) to students attending public schools with more preprogram private school options as the program matured. Effects are particularly pronounced for lower-income students, but results are positive for more affluent students as well. Local and district-wide private school competition are both independently related to student outcomes.

This could easily have gone the other way. We have two stories:

  1. Private schools steal resources and the best students from public schools.

  2. Private school competition forces public schools to get their act together.

Everything in the left-wing, anti-market, statist and collectivist perspective says story one is a nightmare and story two is not a thing.

Everything in the pro-market, pro-freedom and standard economic perspective says story two should dominate, although the selection effect is still a concern.

It is correct to update quite generally, if this finding holds up.

Los Angeles Zones of Choice (ZOC) allowed some students to choose which school to attend, paper finds student outcomes improve markedly in proportion to the amount of competition faced by schools. Whatever one thinks of vouchers, letting students choose between different public schools seems obviously beneficial.

Matt Yglesias makes a case against school choice, arguing that school choice would create a competition for prestige and to attract the best students, similar to that among top colleges. And that this… would be bad. That this would come at the expense of results.

Scott Sumner: Yes, there’s a danger that the school choice movement could make our K-12 system of education as successful as Harvard. But I’m willing to take that risk.

The basic argument is that what makes school work is things like ‘boring drill,’ that Washington is going to hold schools accountable and ensure they produce good results, whereas school choice would not hold schools accountable for good results.

That all seems pretty crazy. If you wanted to steelman the argument and consider it properly, what are the mechanisms that might make this happen?

  1. Children would have a say in which school they choose, and they would tend to choose schools where they will do worse.

I find this highly unlikely. I do not think that in general students want to go to ‘easier’ schools, or ones that teach them less well. Nor do I think they ultimately have that much of the decision making power at such ages.

  1. Parents would have a say in which school they choose, and they would choose schools based on factors that anti-correlate with results.

What would those factors be? Is the worry that they will choose schools that spend their budget or time on signaling wokeness (or anti-wokeness)? That focus on looking nice or on fooling the parents in other ways or tell them what they want to hear? That the schools will try to create lifestyle convenience for parents, in ways that we don’t think should factor in? Or is it the prestige thing?

This is some combination of preference falsification, saying parents (or children) will choose in ways we dislike, and also that they will be fooled and choose wrong.

I think that parents will care about outcomes in math and reading at least as much as the state does. I am confused why you would not expect this. Yes, they might also care about other things, but that should not be a problem. Competition should improve math and reading outcomes here.

  1. Parents will do a relatively poor job evaluating school academic performance.

Unlike with colleges, it is feasible to measure incoming and outgoing skill levels in such matters, and also the parents get to observe student outcomes and talk to each other.

Meanwhile, the baseline is that the state essentially doesn’t evaluate. Low performing schools do not lose students. They do not close. High performing schools do not gain students. They do not franchise. Why should we expect selection here to be worse than that? Sounds absurd.

  1. Prestige and sorting concerns will be destructive.

Yglesias frames this as a conservative would-be worry, citing comparisons to Harvard. The thing is that conservatives very much do not object to Harvard sorting the best students from the worst students. What they object to is that Harvard has various fingers on various scales, both in admissions and in what is taught and by who.

Also, Harvard doesn’t matter, and is not typical. It is the extreme outlier or outliers. All colleges, obviously, feature school choice, you can go wherever. Most college students go to a state or local college. And also they have flexibility in what they can and will charge, they pass on the expenses, and no one is measuring educational outcomes or much caring about them. There’s no reason to think this will translate.

Most important is the role of distance. If I got into Harvard, I would have gone, no matter where I lived at the time around the world. If I got into Harvard Middle School, would my family have moved for it? If it had the same impact on life outcomes as Harvard College and the alternative was where I actually went, then I think they would have, but again that’s an extreme case. If they could instead send me to Columbia Middle School and keep their lives and jobs since it was a mile away from our apartment, they’d definitely have chosen that.

Distance will still matter a ton. This will severely limit prestige spirals caused by school choice rules. You don’t need to fight for selection effects against that many other schools in most places.

You know who does get massive selection effects? The places that provide great schools and then use real estate to price out everyone who is not rich. They get this benefit. Allowing neighboring students to crash such parties would reduce, not amplify, such effects.

The other choice is home school.

Chrisman: When friends start homeschooling they are invariably shocked at how little time is needed for academics. School just fills the time.

Ryan Briggs: This stunned me during Covid. We accidentally did ~2 years of the curriculum in under a year doing 1 hr/day of focused work

What is odd to me is that everyone finds this surprising. Didn’t they all go to school? I member. All that time spent looking at the clock, staring out the window, listening to teachers drone on or talk to other students. Dealing with discipline issues and administrative tasks. Moving between classes. Teaching things you already knew, over and over again, with or without minor variations.

So why is being able distill this activity down dramatically so surprising? One hour a day being good enough to learn at twice the usual overall rate does exceed my baseline prediction, but a dramatic improvement being possible seems obvious.

Among people I know, it is essentially assumed that home school focused on academics using a dedicated teacher who knows what they are doing (let alone proper aristocratic tutoring) would blow away any school on academics.

With the advent of ChatGPT, that should only become more true, assuming regular schools do not adapt so well to it.

A study of 2k children allocated via lottery to attend or not attend one of 280 charter schools showed dramatic long term impact from KIPP (Knowledge is Power Program) charter schools if and only if the kids stay from middle through high school.

John Arnold: Results released today of a new study following the long term impact of KIPP charter schools are incredible and highly policy relevant.

One of my critiques of program evaluations is they tend to judge short term measures (like test scores) when what matters is long term outcomes (higher ed completion and income). So we @Arnold_Ventures sanctioned the 1st study to follow kids who attended a KIPP charter school for 10 years.

While earlier research showed kids who attended a KIPP middle school had significant improvements in test scores, this study shows that kids who subsequently did not attend a KIPP high school only had minimal improvement in college attendance and completion.

But for kids who attended both a KIPP middle and high school, the impact was enormous: nearly doubling the % of kids who graduated with a 4-year degree. As the researchers wrote: “An effect of this size, extrapolated nationwide, would be large enough to nearly close the degree-completion gap (for Black and Hispanic students).”

Why the very large impact? Students who attended a KIPP high school received college prep coursework (including AP classes) and wrap-around supports to and through college. I suspect many other schools did not do the same. Given most of the students come from first-gen college households, receiving these supports in school has enormous value.

But it’s also true not every student wants to attend a 4-year college. Indeed, even at KIPP the majority of students did not earn that degree. KIPP has since enlarged its mission to prepare kids not only for college but also for a career or military service.

The role of K-12 should be to prepare students to be successful in life, whatever they desire to do. In my opinion, KIPP does this as well if not better than any large operator. That some states still fight their expansion is outrageous.

KIPP combines many of the obvious things one would be inclined to try if you thought the solution was More School and to School Harder. Kids get longer hours, more homework, get called upon more, get stricter discipline, face AP and other advanced classes.

Did this matter? If it was only the middle school, not so much:

Slightly more kids entered college, but all the extra enrollees failed to graduate, so treatment here had minimal net impact. To get the impact, you have to stay in the program, this is the finding Arnold was quoting:

The problem is, if both of these graphs are accurate, what would the fourth graph look like, covering students who did the KIPP middle school but not the high school?

We can do the math. 47.6% of the control group enrolled in a four year college. 51.4% of the treatment group (middle school admission) enrolled in a four year college. 76.6% (!) of those who attended KIPP middle school and high school enrolled in a four year college. 36% of the treatment group attended a KIPP high school. Which means 37.2% of the KIPP-for-middle-school-only group went to a four year college.

That is much worse than the control group. Presumably this means that KIPP high school is a strong selection effect, since I doubt KIPP middle school on its own massively backfires. It likely does backfire on a small subset of kids who can’t or don’t want to handle it, most of whom do not proceed to KIPP high school.

If given the opportunity, should you send your child to a KIPP middle school with the option to go to a KIPP high school?

If your goal is to get them onto the strict academic track, you think the family can handle and support that and the alternative is a public school, and you are willing to make the quality of life sacrifices involved in not letting your kid be much of a kid for a while, it seems hard to turn down the resources involved. It makes sense to think you can beat the odds.

The net benefits for all children, however, including from the high schools, do not seem to be clearly different from zero. Probably a lot of families do not know what they are getting into, or fool themselves into thinking they can handle it.

Nate Silver points out this fun little passage, in a piece mostly making terrible justifications for school closures under Covid:

Nate Silver: TFW the motivated reasoning hits so strong and you’re so terrified to admit that critics of school closures had a point that you start going with “School is bad, actually”.

John Ehrenreich (Slate): Schools have a darker side. At school, children may face sexual assault and harassment and racism. One in five high school students reports being bullied on school property. Schools create stress over academic performance, pressure students to fit into normative gender roles, force invidious social comparisons on children, and conjure up feelings of failure and shame and humiliation over academic failure. Perhaps as a result, a recent Yale University study reported that nearly 75 percent of high school students’ self-reported feelings related to school were negative. Other studies show that teen suicide rates are highest during the months children are in school and lowest during the summer.

Those are not the main considerations one would note if taking the question ‘is school bad, actually?’ seriously. But it is important to note that school should not be assumed to be good and a benefit, rather than bad and a cost. By default it is an expensive thing (in time and money and coercion) that generates benefits. During the pandemic, in practice, the alternative was ‘remote learning’ which was the worst of all possible worlds. Compared to that, school in person is clearly good and a benefit, as would be doing nothing. But compared to a more enlightened alternative, this is far less clear.

Babies need people, not devices. Stop giving them screen time. Easy for her to say, but also yes. This seems clear. Being a parent has made it abundantly clear that screen time must be minimized, even when the uses are ‘educational’ or otherwise curated, that too much of it too early is not healthy.

Such screens of all sizes are also, of course, immensely useful to you, the parent. With all the demands placed on parents now, some compromise on this will be necessary. And I wouldn’t be terrified of the television being on, or anything. But, yeah.

Somehow the statistics get worse every time on what kids are allowed to do. A survey found half of parents of 9-to-11 year olds won’t let their kids go to another aisle at the store. Utter madness.

We have a natural experiment proving teacher preparatory programs are useless.

Daniel Buck: NEW DATA: 5,800 teachers received emergency licenses during the pandemic.

Their students showed the same👏🏼exact👏🏼growth👏🏼in reading and math as their traditionally trained counterparts

Why do we still have university teacher prep programs exactly?

It was actually strictly better by some metrics people care about:

Calder report, Abstract: Relative to the novice teacher workforce before the pandemic, Temporary CE teachers were substantially more diverse without any significant effects on teacher performance or student test scores.

Matthew Yglesias has a gated write-up, in which he notes this is consistent with prior research, which makes it even crazier that we went back to the requirements.

In New Jersey, he notes that those teachers also included many who had actively failed a certification step in the past. If people you are rejecting do as well as the people you accept, in a profession with a perpetual labor shortage, maybe stop that.

Paper claims having male teachers in primary school in Finland was greatly beneficial to students of all genders. It is based on the natural experiment that there used to be quotas to ensure 40% male teachers, then the quotas went away.

Patrick McKenzie presents: Adventures in American math education:

Problem: Cindy has less than ten $5 bills in her pocket. How much money could she have?

Lillian (9): … Any amount.

Me: That’s my girl! Now, to write some math fanfiction.

(Lillian’s rationalization included a) most money isn’t bills, b) Cindy could have yen or something, c) didn’t say anything about $1 bills so can have as many as she wants and d) most money isn’t in a wallet because Cindy isn’t stupid.)

(The math fanfiction that this 3rd grade problem wants is “She has less than fifty dollars because 5 times 10 is 50 and she has less than that.”)

(Elsewhere in math homework twice tonight she said something which phrased slightly differently would be acceptable in a proof and I had to tell her that her intuition is wonderful but the password is phrased differently in third grade.)

“Steve has some pairs of socks. Does Steve have 17 socks?” “No.” “How do you know?” “Eight twos is 16. Nine twos is 18. There is no number between eight and nine.” “… Absolutely good logic. Now, do you remember even and odd?” “This nonsense again?” “Yes.” “‘17 is odd.’ *sigh*”

As flawed as those are, they’re not actually so bad. It gets so much worse.

Another way it gets worse is that if you have rules against expulsion of bullies, then you are effectively bullying and expelling the targets of bullies. New York Post covers an 11-year-old girl who has been continuously bullied at a gifted and talented school in New York, who has been offered a ‘safety transfer’ because the system has no punishments that can deter or prevent bullying however blatant.

Post on: What the algorithm does to young girls. First focus is Instagram, where influencers pushed into your customized feed push both themselves and viewers into cosmetic surgery, often ending up strictly worse off for it. Then mental health, with everyone discussing their issues on Tumblr and then all discussions reduced to TikTok trends. All ‘engineered to be massively addictive.’ What ‘chance does the next generation stand,’ Freya India asks, even without considering AI. She warns not to let children open social media accounts until at least 16 and for children to generally get off screens, which seems wise.

If there are products known to be massively addictive and harmful, but which one can choose to simply not consume, the play seems obvious? I realize the talk of ‘network effects’ and all that but I mostly do not buy it. These are not the previous wave of social networks and feeds. I realize I am on Twitter all the time and it would be healthier not to be so I’m not zero percent a hypocrite, but I am there in large part to do a job.

Chicago mayor, after promising not to, announces plan to ax their high achieving selective enrollment high schools to boost equity. As always, if X

My heart sank as I read this post entitled ‘Math Team.’ The author spent hours each week on math competitions, hating every minute of it, finding it utterly boring, in order to get into a good college. Where the math team was a trick that relied for its funding on getting kids into the top colleges. He missed out on early decision at Princeton then ultimately landed at Stanford, notorious for telling me to apply based on my math competition scores despite being certain to reject me (which they did), causing my parents to force me to burn one of my seven application slots on a <1% chance. This is what happens when everyone is optimizing against each other for a fixed pool of slots and sacrificing actual everything to get one.

The author of The Great AI Weirdening, the source of the above post, extends this to further academic admissions and also hiring in AI, thinking of it as the AI catching everyone in maximizing rat races. With frictionless reproducibility, it is argued, requirements can multiply endlessly in a recursive rat race.

This might well be happening in AI research, but I do not blame AI. This is humans doing human things, trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods with a wrong model of the world and having their mistakes fail to cancel out. If it is no longer a signal of anything but grit and time wasted to have lots of publications, why should I hire you based on your publication counts or repo scores?

Especially because I could read your best paper, see your best code, interview you, give you real tests of skill. The best will do that. I have a hunch that OpenAI does not much care how many papers you published.

NY Times reports that many schools have made it almost impossible to fail, even if you do not show up for class or cannot do the work at all.

Not everything is a mystery.

Rob Henderson: A real head scratcher.

Rob Henderson: I spent some time in the LA Unified school system when they were marginally less stupid in the 1990s. My favorite example of their bumbling ineptitude was later in 2013 when they bought 700,000 iPads thinking it would boost learning outcomes for low-income kids.

Naturally, it backfired. Grades plummeted because kids used their iPads to surf the internet and play games.

Danny Muth: I’m a teacher in Sacramento. Last year our school board implemented a grading policy that sets a 50% floor for all assignments- even missing assignments. Grades soar.

Scores in the ACT, which is a test of knowledge, versus GPA, which is a test of something else. Note the scale on the Y-axis, but still.

Oregon again says students don’t need to prove basic mastery of reading, writing or math to graduate, citing harm to students of color.

Padme: The harm is that they aren’t mastering reading, writing and math, right?

Oregon is not alone.

Razib Khan: Going to make explicit what seems to be happening in high schools.

There are differences in graduation rates by socioeconomic status and race.

Education establishment does not like this. Looks bad.

Solution: pull away objective metrics/filters that cause this imbalance

⬆️ graduation rates by removing filters that hit low SES & minorities is a total win for the education establishment. equity

BUT, it is bad for the low SES/minority kids for whom HS diploma is an important signal that they’re one of the ‘good ones’

When you give everyone a credential the credential is worthless. ppl like those who are mostly reading this tweet HS diploma is kind of irrelevant; you’re focused on the bachelor’s degree but for working and lower class kids who have brains, focus and conscientiousness it’s not.

To be charitable… they may not even understand this logic. it’s up to policy ppl to guide them.

Woodgrains (QTing abovee): To make it more explicit, this is happening systematically at every level of institutions, with high schools only one particularly salient example breaking the thermometer turns out to be rather easier than changing thee weather.

The only four ways to make graduation rates and performance equal are:

  1. Equalize actual learning by helping everyone learn better. Seems hard.

  2. Equalize actual learning by sabotage, a la Harrison Bergeron. Has been tried.

  3. Equalize graduation rates by making graduation automatic. Oregon and company.

  4. Equalize graduation rates by using unequal thresholds and failing kids as needed.

Do you want your children taught by a system that is optimizing to not know things?

Study confirms that SAT scores are one of our best predictors of college performance, superior in this to high school grades, although grades alone can explain a lot of the variance if you don’t control for SAT scores first. Attending elite high schools outperforms both, but everyone seems to be comfortable actively discriminating in college admissions against those who go to elite high schools. This likely is part of why such kids overperform.

How easily are people fooled by grade point averages?

Tyler Austin Harper: I find it *insanethat the Ivy League does crazy grade inflation and — seeing that — so many people at non-Ivies insist on grading “rigorously,” thereby re-enforcing the pre-existing opinion of employers that elite uni kids are geniuses (he’s a 4.0!) and state school kids idiots

Even if you believe grades are effective measures of student learning and provide crucial motivational functions — which I do not — they are meaningless when every university has wildly different grading cultures and the institutions at the top rig the system for their graduates.

All you are doing by insisting on stringent grading standards is lending material support to the inequalities that keep elite university grads at the top and others beneath them. I find it maddening. And so many profs who are infuriatingly woke in other ways grade like fascists.

Nate Silver: If I were hiring right now I’d prefer high-achieving state school students >>> undifferentiated Ivy League students. Not a remotely close call.

I am with Nate Silver and my answer is ‘not very.’

Everybody knows, at this point, that the Ivies and other hyper-selective colleges are practicing grade hyper-inflation. Your grades there are essentially meaningless. A 4.0 from Yale means only slightly more than ‘I got into Yale.’ I am highly skeptical that such graduates are then getting much additional job market mileage out of their GPAs, even for their first job.

Whereas at state schools your grades mean something. Often I will watch for the top ‘student athletes’ and even with a presumed finger on the scale no one on the team could rally above a 3.6. That means that if you are an exceptional student, you can prove it and differentiate yourself. Which is very important when making it into the school is not itself a strong signal. That’s the point.

Percent of young adults who say that a college degree is very important has dropped over the last 10 years from 74% to 41% (!), according to NYT. Stunning drop.

Tyler Cowen makes the case for college sports. He notes that college athletes make more money than non-athletes, partly by more often entering business and finance, and also make more money for the schools. If anything, that makes it sound like we do not give enough weight to athletics in admissions.

I do not think this is a convincing argument that athletics teaches useful skills, so much as an argument that the non-athletic components of college mostly do not do so, and competitive sports are at least as good for character as classrooms. And that physical prowess is rewarded in today’s marketplace, as it always has been.

Certainly I would be happy to see my children playing a sport competitively purely for its own sake, and it seems better than a lot of what college students spend their time doing. I am all in favor of college sports, including the ones in which I have zero interest.

Perhaps there should be a greater shift towards the sports ‘of the people’ and away from ‘rich person’ sports, then again perhaps this too is fine? What the children of the rich most need is hard work and competition on a level playing field. Lacrosse or boat racing do have barriers to admission in the form of money, but past those barriers they are fair, and they are real tests. I can get behind this.

Math homework is rigged, engineered to have easy answers, and even more than that easily formulated and selected questions. This means it is little help with allowing you to set up real world problems and find their practical solutions. I have made a lot of money out of doing math. Almost all that math is deeply, deeply simple at its core. The hard part is figuring out what math to do. I still remember that one time I got to write an integral sign on a piece of paper in real life. I did a dance of joy.

Or as John Cook puts it: “What kind of math does your consulting involve?” “Sometimes fancy stuff, but often high school level math.” “Why would anyone hire a professional mathematician to do high school math?” “Because a professional mathematician can wield high school math like a professional.”

Exactly. Tighten pipe, $5. Knowing which pipe to tighten, $495. Worth it.

The case for copywork: Physically copying the work of others. I buy that it is (part of) the best way to learn to play an instrument. I do not buy the case made here that it is the best way to learn how to write, done with pen and paper. Seems very much like a virtue previously born of necessity, when people like Ben Franklin had little to work with and made the most of it. Back then, this made sense. Now, we can do better.

Then again, will we do better? Or is copywork still effectively a win, like many other traditional practices that cause you to do the work at all? It depends on the person. It does sound, if you choose passages that appeal to you and speak to you, like copywork is a better use of time than many other traditional exercises.

Emmett Shear on college-level organic chemistry. His experience was that the class was composed of a mix of science track and premed track students. The science students are there to actually learn and retain the material, so even though it’s a massive amount of compounding facts you have to learn, they do fine. Whereas the premed students are happy to do the work, but are thinking of the class as a structural barrier rather than source of information, so they cram rather than retaining information, and then struggle. So it is a question of motivation. How do we get students, across the board, to be motivated by actually caring about the material?

This well matches my experience. Any time my internal motivation was ‘pass this class’ and ‘pass this test’ and ultimately ‘get through this’ then information did not build, I did not learn in a way that stuck, and pretty soon I was struggling. It never went well. Whereas in classes where I actually wanted to learn something, it went far better even during the class and I also often retained useful knowledge.

There isn’t quite no point in having a student in a class that does not want to be there for the knowledge, but it is pretty damn close.

How is Auburn University spending so much money, especially with so little football success? Wall Street Journal investigates this test case. Nice amenities, new facilities, debt service and quite a lot of administrators.

Another trick academia and colleges use is to claim credit for everything. Talib talks about this a lot, where a tinkerer or businessperson will figure something out, then someone in academia writes it up and claims the intellectual credit.

Or, alternatively, we have someone who comes up with something, and then associates with academia in order to get the idea taken seriously and to get the credit, so the credit then gets taken by academia.

Case in point: Effective Altruism.

Ian Bogost: This article wasn’t the place to go into it, but, we need to face a difficult truth in academia: Original thought—truly original, creative research ideas—are extremely rare now. Scholarship is mostly careerist incrementalism, the profession deserves sneers for it.

Nate Silver: Half-troll, half-serious Q: What are the most influential ideas to come out of academia over the past 10-20 years, excluding hard sciences? Effective altruism? (EA also has significant non-academic influences.) Critical theory? (Academic origins date back >> 20 years.)

Andy Masley: I remain extremely bullish on EA and suspect it’ll be a clearer and clearer contender for one of the most influential ideas to come out of recent academia.

Oliver Habryka: I really don’t think describing EA as having its origin in academia is accurate. It seems like one of the least academic intellectual communities and movements that I know about. Which academic publications are supposed to have much to do with EAs founding?

Andy Masley: I’m mainly thinking of Parfit + academic analytic philosophy. Not claiming that EA is especially academic, just that some of the key ideas came from pretty academic environments.

Oliver Habryka: Hmm, I guess I haven’t seen that much influence from Parfit, though like, it does seem like one of the three sets of intellectual influences was somewhat though not hugely influenced by Parfit, but that seems far from sufficient to classify EA as “coming out of academia”.

Like, my model is that Paul Graham, the economics blogging community, the fallacies and biases literature, Peter Singer’s popular writing, the 20th century hard sci-fi community, and early contributors to the field of AI all had a greater or at least equal contribution to Parfit.

[more discussion, including how much weight to put on Oxford, follows]

The counterfactual influence of academia on Effective Altruism is large in the sense that EA uses Oxford and other top colleges as prime recruiting grounds. If they didn’t have that affordance, things would be very different. In terms of the core ideas, it seems to me to mostly lie elsewhere, and for those at Oxford who contributed to have not done so thanks to any affordances they got from Oxford.

A lot of things seem to be like this. Academia increasingly is not the source of important new ideas. And when it is the source of important new ideas, they are important because academia is succeeding at spreading their Obvious Nonsense, whereas a sane civilization would shrug the same concepts off as ludicrous.

We talk about the cost of college a lot in the United States, but the average resulting debt burden here does not seem so unusually large?

It helps that we are richer. It also makes it easier to pay off the debt.

Jewish families picking colleges now forced to choose largely on the basis of worries about antisemitism and physical safety. If one must choose, it is noted that the Universities of Florida and Miami have been taking relatively strong steps to keep Jewish students safe. If, as one student notes in the post, the issue is the ‘other politics’ going on in Florida, I would suggest that is a misunderstanding of what one should prioritize. I would also suggest that this is a sign to not go to college at all, do not lend your strength to that which you wish to be free from and will not be worth it in the new AI age anyway, and instead start a business.

A young woman, with a marketing degree and $80k in student debt, complains that she can’t get any decent jobs that use her degree because they all require ‘experience.’ The degree, she says, was the experience. Which is the kind of thing only said by someone with no experience, expecting to get the six-figure jobs right off the bat because she has a degree. She could indeed get a job in marketing, to get the experience, but it would mean an ‘insane’ pay cut. She didn’t realize that, didn’t plan for it and can’t stomach it.

Inez Stepman: Unpopular opinion: instead of dunking on her, we should be going after the predatory university system that has shown for decades and especially in the last week that it does not deserve our public $ nor our trust.

She should’ve never been given an $80,000 loan at 18, no bank would’ve given it to her. But USG will!

At a minimum, before we give kids gigantic loans to go get a degree, perhaps we should check for reasonable market expectations on what that degree might enable them to do? And also, if we do not think they should be forced to pay it back but do want them to have the money, give them a grant instead?

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Amazon marketplace crackdown has sellers searching for legal help

Amazon, counterfeit, Policy, syndication / /

Legit or not —

Clean-up drive has led to some small businesses having their accounts suspended.

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Amazon marketplace crackdown has sellers searching for legal help

Leon Neal | Getty Images

Merchants who have been suspended from selling goods on Amazon’s marketplace are turning to a cottage industry of lawyers to regain access to their accounts and money, amid growing scrutiny of how the retailer treats independents.

Millions of accounts on the leading ecommerce platform have been prevented from engaging in sales for alleged violations of Amazon’s broad range of policies and other bad behavior. Even temporary suspensions can be a critical blow to the small business owners who rely on online sales.

Four ecommerce-focused US law firms told the Financial Times that the majority of the cases they took on were complaints brought by aggrieved Amazon sellers, with each handling hundreds or thousands of cases every year.

About a dozen sellers also said they had grown worried about Amazon’s power to suspend their accounts or product listings, as it was not always clear what had triggered the suspension and Amazon’s seller support services did not always help to sort out the issue.

Account suspension was “a big fear of mine,” said one seller, who declined to be named. “At the end of the day, it’s not really your business. One day you can wake up and it’s all gone.”

Amazon’s recent efforts to crack down on issues such as fake product reviews have come as US and European regulators have upped their scrutiny of the online harms facing shoppers.

But critics said the existence of a growing army of lawyers and consultants to deal with the fallout from Amazon’s actions pointed to a problem with the way the retailer treats its sellers.

“If you’re a seller and you need help to navigate the system, that’s a real vulnerability for the marketplace. If you’re operating a business where the people you’re deriving revenue from feel that they’re being treated in an arbitrary way without due process, that is a problem,” said Marianne Rowden, chief executive of the E-Merchants Trade Council.

“The fact that there are entire law firms dedicated to dealing with Amazon says a lot,” said one seller, who like many who spoke to the FT asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals.

Amazon declined to comment in detail but said its selling partners were “incredibly important” and the company worked hard to “protect and help them grow their business.” The company worked to “eliminate mistakes and ‘false positive’ enforcements” and had an appeal process for sellers in place.

Sellers on Amazon’s marketplace account for more than 60 percent of sales in its store. In the nine months to September 30, Amazon recorded $96bn in commissions and fees paid by sellers, a jump of nearly 20 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.

As the marketplace has grown, Amazon has had to do more to police it. During the first half of 2023 in its EU store, Amazon took 274mn “actions” in response to potential policy violations and other suspected problems, which included the removal of content and 4.2mn account suspensions. Amazon revealed the numbers as part of its first European transparency report newly required by EU law.

Amazon typically withholds any money in the account of a seller it has suspended for alleged fraudulent or abusive practices, which it may keep permanently if the account is not reinstated and the merchant is deemed to have been a bad actor.

Figuring out what caused a suspension and how to reverse it can be difficult. “We had a listing shut down during Prime Big Deals Days with no warning, no cause, no explanation,” said one kitchenware seller who has been selling on Amazon.com since 2014. “That’s pretty common.”

Amazon gave no further information when the listing was reinstated days later, the seller said.

Such confusion drives some sellers towards lawyers and consultants who advise on underlying problems, such as intellectual property disputes.

Amazon-focused US firms said they typically charged flat fees of between $1,300 and $3,500 per case.

CJ Rosenbaum, founding partner of the Amazon and ecommerce-focused law firm Rosenbaum Famularo, said the practice experienced a “big jump” in demand during the pandemic.

Many cases related to IP complaints from bigger brands “trying to control who sells their products” and making “a baseless counterfeit complaint” against a smaller Amazon seller, he added.

Lawyers said some sellers had been wrongly accused by the company’s automated systems that identify breaches of rules and policies. They added though that others had broken Amazon’s rules.

The retailer has become “more draconian” in the enforcement of its policies in recent years, said attorney Jeff Schick.

“Clients will say Amazon is unfair,” he said, but added that if the company did not strictly enforce its rules “then the platform becomes the next [US classified advertisements website] Craigslist.”

As part of escalated disputes, lawyers might steer merchants through a costly arbitration process that the company requires US sellers to use for most issues, rather than filing lawsuits against it.

Sellers were subject to “forced” arbitration clauses that required them to “sign away the right to their day in court if a dispute with Amazon arises,” said a 2022 US government report.

The details of arbitrations are not public, and decisions do not typically set binding precedents. They can also be hugely expensive: the up to three arbitrators that preside over a case can charge hundreds of dollars an hour.

“Quickly, you’re at $25,000 of costs or more,” said sole practitioner Leo Vaisburg, who left firm Wilson Elser in 2022 to pursue Amazon-related work full time. For many small businesses the high costs were “a barrier to entry,” he added. “Very few cases are worth that kind of money.”

© 2024 The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved. Not to be redistributed, copied, or modified in any way.

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tesla-sold-1.8-million-electric-vehicles-in-2023

Tesla sold 1.8 million electric vehicles in 2023

BYD, Cars, Tesla, Tesla earnings / /

38 < 50 —

It met its sales goal, but growth is well below CEO Elon Musk’s stated target.

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Workers walk past a large Tesla logo.

Getty Images | San Francisco Chronicle/Hearst Newspapers

Tesla found new homes for 1.8 million electric vehicles last year, it revealed on Tuesday afternoon. That will no doubt please CEO Elon Musk—it means the company has met its sales volume goal given to investors when it released its 2022 financial results at the end of last January.

Tesla built 494,989 vehicles in the last quarter of 2023, of which 18,212 were the more expensive but aging Models S and X. More importantly to the bottom line, Tesla built 476,777 Models 3 and Y. For the same three months, it delivered 484,507 EVs, of which 461,538 were the popular Models 3 and Y.

Cumulatively, Tesla built 1,845,985 EVs—1,775,159 Models 3 and Y and 70,826 Models S and X. And it delivered 1,808,581 EVs (1,739,707 Models 3 and Y; 68,874 Models S and X)—meeting the 2023 sales goal of 1.8 million cars sold.

That’s another record year for Tesla, but it’s also another year where the company has fallen far short of its targeted cumulative annual growth rate of 50 percent. Last year, it grew by 40 percent; this year, it grew by just 38 percent.

For that 50 percent CAGR to become a reality, 2024 will need to be a much stronger year than Tesla has had in the past. But that might prove easier said than done. BYD, a Chinese automaker, eclipsed Tesla in EV sales for the first time in Q4 2023, and Tesla’s market share is declining—albeit slowly—in the US as dozens of new EVs have gone on sale of late.

China and the US are Tesla’s two most important markets, and it seems investors have taken notice—Tesla’s share price has fallen almost five percent since the start of trading this morning.

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