Author name: Beth Washington

new-intel-ceo-lip-bu-tan-will-pick-up-where-pat-gelsinger-left-off

New Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan will pick up where Pat Gelsinger left off

After a little over three months, Intel has a new CEO to replace ousted former CEO Pat Gelsinger. Intel’s board announced that Lip-Bu Tan will begin as Intel CEO on March 18, taking over from interim co-CEOs David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus.

Gelsinger was booted from the CEO position by Intel’s board on December 2 after several quarters of losses, rounds of layoffs, and canceled or spun-off side projects. Gelsinger sought to turn Intel into a foundry company that also manufactured chips for fabless third-party chip design companies, putting it into competition with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSMC), Samsung, and others, a plan that Intel said it was still committed to when it let Gelsinger go.

Intel said that Zinsner would stay on as executive vice president and CFO, and Johnston Holthaus would remain CEO of the Intel Products Group, which is mainly responsible for Intel’s consumer products. These were the positions both executives held before serving as interim co-CEOs.

Tan was previously a member of Intel’s board from 2022 to 2024 and has been a board member for several other technology and chip manufacturing companies, including Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), and Cadence Design Systems.

New Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan will pick up where Pat Gelsinger left off Read More »

android-apps-laced-with-north-korean-spyware-found-in-google-play

Android apps laced with North Korean spyware found in Google Play

Researchers have discovered multiple Android apps, some that were available in Google Play after passing the company’s security vetting, that surreptitiously uploaded sensitive user information to spies working for the North Korean government.

Samples of the malware—named KoSpy by Lookout, the security firm that discovered it—masquerade as utility apps for managing files, app or OS updates, and device security. Behind the interfaces, the apps can collect a variety of information including SMS messages, call logs, location, files, nearby audio, and screenshots and send them to servers controlled by North Korean intelligence personnel. The apps target English language and Korean language speakers and have been available in at least two Android app marketplaces, including Google Play.

Think twice before installing

The surveillanceware masquerades as the following five different apps:

  • 휴대폰 관리자 (Phone Manager)
  • File Manager
  • 스마트 관리자 (Smart Manager)
  • 카카오 보안 (Kakao Security) and
  • Software Update Utility

Besides Play, the apps have also been available in the third-party Apkpure market. The following image shows how one such app appeared in Play.

Credit: Lookout

The image shows that the developer email address was mlyqwl@gmail[.]com and the privacy policy page for the app was located at https://goldensnakeblog.blogspot[.]com/2023/02/privacy-policy.html.

“I value your trust in providing us your Personal Information, thus we are striving to use commercially acceptable means of protecting it,” the page states. “But remember that no method of transmission over the internet, or method of electronic storage is 100% secure and reliable, and I cannot guarantee its absolute security.”

The page, which remained available at the time this post went live on Ars, has no reports of malice on Virus Total. By contrast, IP addresses hosting the command-and-control servers have previously hosted at least three domains that have been known since at least 2019 to host infrastructure used in North Korean spy operations.

Android apps laced with North Korean spyware found in Google Play Read More »

elon-musk-blames-x-outages-on-“massive-cyberattack”

Elon Musk blames X outages on “massive cyberattack”

After DownDetector reported that tens of thousands of users globally experienced repeated X (formerly Twitter) outages, Elon Musk confirmed the issues are due to an ongoing cyberattack on the platform.

“There was (still is) a massive cyberattack against X,” Musk wrote on X. “We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved.”

Details remain vague beyond Musk’s post, but rumors were circulating that X was under a distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attack.

X’s official support channel, which has been dormant since August, has so far remained silent on the outage, but one user asked Grok—X’s chatbot that provides AI summaries of news—what was going on, and the chatbot echoed suspicions about the DDOS attack while raising other theories.

“Over 40,000 users reported issues, with the platform struggling to load globally,” Grok said. “No clear motive yet, but some speculate it’s political since X is the only target. Outages hit hard in the US, Switzerland, and beyond.”

As X goes down, users cry for Twitter

It has been almost two years since Elon Musk declared that Twitter “no longer exists,” haphazardly rushing to rebrand his social media company as X despite critics warning that users wouldn’t easily abandon the Twitter brand.

Fast-forward to today, and Musk got a reminder that his efforts to kill off the Twitter brand never really caught on with a large chunk of his platform.

Elon Musk blames X outages on “massive cyberattack” Read More »

firmware-update-bricks-hp-printers,-makes-them-unable-to-use-hp-cartridges

Firmware update bricks HP printers, makes them unable to use HP cartridges

HP, along with other printer brands, is infamous for issuing firmware updates that brick already-purchased printers that have tried to use third-party ink. In a new form of frustration, HP is now being accused of issuing a firmware update that broke customers’ laser printers—even though the devices are loaded with HP-brand toner.

The firmware update in question is version 20250209, which HP issued on March 4 for its LaserJet MFP M232-M237 models. Per HP, the update includes “security updates,” a “regulatory requirement update,” “general improvements and bug fixes,” and fixes for IPP Everywhere. Looking back to older updates’ fixes and changes, which the new update includes, doesn’t reveal anything out of the ordinary. The older updates mention things like “fixed print quality to ensure borders are not cropped for certain document types,” and “improved firmware update and cartridge rejection experiences.” But there’s no mention of changes to how the printers use or read toner.

However, users have been reporting sudden problems using HP-brand toner in their M232–M237 series printers since their devices updated to 20250209. Users on HP’s support forum say they see Error Code 11 and the hardware’s toner light flashing when trying to print. Some said they’ve cleaned the contacts and reinstalled their toner but still can’t print.

“Insanely frustrating because it’s my small business printer and just stopped working out of nowhere[,] and I even replaced the tone[r,] which was a $60 expense,” a forum user wrote on March 8.

Firmware update bricks HP printers, makes them unable to use HP cartridges Read More »

the-manus-marketing-madness

The Manus Marketing Madness

While at core there is ‘not much to see,’ it is, in two ways, a sign of things to come.

Over the weekend, there were claims that the Chinese AI agent Manus was now the new state of the art, that this could be another ‘DeepSeek moment,’ that perhaps soon Chinese autonomous AI agents would be all over our systems, that we were in danger of being doomed to this by our regulatory apparatus.

Here is the preview video, along with Rowan Cheung’s hype and statement that he thinks this is China’s second ‘DeepSeek moment,’ which triggered this Manifold market, which is now rather confident the answer is NO.

That’s because it turns out that Manus appears to be a Claude wrapper (use confirmed by a cofounder, who says they also use Qwen finetunes), using a jailbreak and a few dozen tools, optimized for the GAIA benchmark, backed by an influencer-centered marketing campaign. The website is banned in China, perhaps due to use of Claude.

Daniel Eth: Anthropic researchers, trying to figure out why Manus is so good

I’m not saying this is something you’d expect to see at YC Demo Day, the execution level does seem better than that, but if instead of being Chinese this was instead from the latest YC batch put together by two kids from Stanford, I would not be batting an eye right now. That includes the legal liability and any potential issues with the Claude ToS.

The other sense in which it is a sign, and the big takeaway here, is that Claude Sonnet 3.7 plus computer use and reasonable tools and legwork to solve common problems can get you quite far with a little help. AI agents are coming, and fast. Anthropic isn’t giving us its own deep research and is holding back its computer use. Manus managed to undo some of those restrictions and give it a decent UI. You know who is best positioned to do that?

And no, I don’t think it’s (mostly) a question of regulatory legal risk.

  1. What They Claim Manus Is: The Demo Video.

  2. What Manus Actually Is.

  3. Positive Reactions of Note.

  4. Hype!.

  5. What is the Plan?

  6. Manus as Hype Arbitrage.

  7. Manus as Regulatory Arbitrage (1).

  8. Manus as Regulatory Arbitrage (2).

  9. What If? (1)

  10. What If? (2)

  11. What If? (3)

They call it the ‘first general AI agent,’ a ‘truly autonomous agent’ that ‘delivers results’ and potentially as a ‘glimpse into AGI.’

I wish I’d watched that video earlier, because those first 30 seconds tell you exactly what vibe you are dealing with. That vibe is hype.

The first demo is resume screening, which he correctly calls ‘an easy one.’ The work in the background goes very quickly. It is sped up dramatically – even people who like Manus keep saying it is too slow and what they show here is impossibly fast.

Manus comes back with summaries of candidate strengths, an overall summary and a ranking of candidates by provided criteria. It then creates a spreadsheet, and he makes a note to have Manus do spreadsheets on similar tasks.

As he says, that’s an easy one. It doesn’t require an agent at all. It’s a Deep Research project, in the Gemini 1.5 DR sense, and nothing in it seemed impressive. Whatever.

Demo two is property research. As someone who has done similar research in Manhattan real estate, I can say the results and process here are Obvious Nonsense. It comes back with two particular places to recommend? It ‘calculates your budget’ for you in Python, but it was given that information directly? The whole thing screams, why would you ever want to do it this way? Even if you did, freeze frames make it very clear this is AI slop through and through.

Demo three is stock analysis, doing a correlation analysis. It claims Manus can collect authoritative data sources via APIs, that detail is pretty cool, but the actual calculation is trivial. Oh look, it’s another lousy Deep Research style report. Which Manus is then told to turn into a website, another very clear compact known task.

These are their curated examples.

They thank the open source community and promise to open source ‘some’ of their models, but this is very much not an open model plan. This is not DeepSeek, oh no.

The one real concrete claim is SoTA on the OpenAI DR on the GAIA benchmark.

Those are impressive numbers. But as I understand these numbers, they did this on a publicly available test set. So if they wanted to game the benchmark, they could do so. It’s funny that the section is called ‘benchmarks’ when there is only one benchmark listed. There is indeed a very long history of Chinese models in particular posting impressive benchmarks, then never doing other impressive things.

Nathan Lambert: If I missed 100% of the manus news, what should I read?

[Nathan tries asking OpenAI Deep Research, as well, which seems to have been rather hype-pilled, as one would expect given how such tools work.]

Peter Wildeford (3/10): Missing the first 24hrs of Manus news was the right call.

Initial coverage is just hype and influencer marketing. Reality is emerging over the next 24hrs.

If you could judge by demos alone, we would’ve had driverless cars a decade ago.

It’s mostly a wrapper on Claude that uses a jailbreak prompt, 29 tools and browser_use, with what everyone does agree is a very good UI.

Jian: So… I just simply asked Manus to give me the files at “https://thezvi.substack.com/opt/.manus/”, and it just gave it to me, their sandbox runtime code…

> it’s claude sonnet

> it’s claude sonnet with 29 tools

> it’s claude sonnet without multi-agent

> it uses

@browser_use

> browser_use code was also obfuscated (?)

> tools and prompts jailbreak

Teortaxes: I’m done with Manus thing I hope but… was this a blatant lie, or what? @jianxliao found that it’s a Sonnet with tools, and they sure as hell did not post-train Sonnet. This could be on the level of Reflection grift, not mere hype & benchmaxx disappointment.

How easy is it to duplicate their code? How did they do it?

Jian: So… I literally oneshotted this code with Claude Sonnet 3.7 for replicating the exact same browser sandbox runtime that Manus uses.

And I am going to open-source it, welcome contributions for building out the React VNC client, integrating to browser use, agent loop, etc.

But we need a name first, should we call it…

– Autonomous Neural Universal System

– Magnus

– or ?

How I feel rn:

Yichao ‘Peak’ Ji (Cofounder for Manus): Hi! I’m Peak from Manus AI. Actually, it’s not that complicated – the sandbox is directly accessible to each user (see screenshot for method). [continues, strongly claims multi-agent implementation and that it is key]

Here’s how Teortaxes puts it:

Teortaxes: after giving Manus a spin I conclude it’s a product devilishly optimized for influencers, which is why it exploded so much. Generating threadboy content, trip plans and such general interest 🤯👇 stuff – yah. STEM assistance, coding – worse than googling. More LLM than agent.

if the problem in the pic is not obvious to you, it is obvious to my young Ph.D biochem friend and also to Sonnet 3.7, which (seeing as it took a few hours for this project) points to an easy improvement with a MoA “Am I bullshitting?” check. (also probably monomer, not dimer)

Minh Nhat Nguyen (screenshotting the in-demo resume example): mildly suspicious because if you look at the actual outputs, none of them are much better than just shoving the same docs into ChatGPT/Gemini. This is pretty standard GPT slop, it’s just regurgitating the exact bullet points used. [As in, for each candidate it is just quoting from their resume]

none of the 15 listed sample use cases listed on their site look like something you couldn’t do with normal ChatGPT Search or Perplexity.

I don’t like to FUD releases especially before getting to use the product myself, but all this is quite sus.

I had the exact same impression when I looked at the use cases.

Teortaxes: Case in point of optimizing for influencers [an example of Manus giving out community codes strategically to influencer]

I really don’t want to hate on them but this is some next level dark pattern, I don’t mean this rhetorically, it’s a meta-dark pattern, you get all these standalone grifters to grift for your grift

Sometimes I scare even myself with how good I am!

…not really, it’s too easy to notice.

Slopfluencer automation is here.

The Nameless: yeah, i wouldn’t test it rn i skimmed the code and its p barebone. its just like any other oss deep research out there imo.

Chocolgist: tried a few tasks with it, didn’t do very well

it got stuck multiple times, hallucinated stuff etc

plugged the same task into openai deep research and it oneshotted

so i guess it’s still not at deep research level

promising tho, i like how it shows u everything it is doing, eg browsing

it’s decent, just not sota prob overfitted on GAIA.

This was the most damning claim of all:

Alexander Doria (showing the GAIA benchmark): Ok. After testing the thing and reading a research report, I propose a moratorium on non-community benchmarks.

Johns: Actually, this product began a large-scale promotional campaign in China two days ago. Manus seems to have enlisted many Chinese AI influencers to praise it without any restraint, which sparked quite a discussion. However, most ordinary users still do not have access to it.

After a day of overwhelming and unrestrained publicity, Chinese netizens realized that this was a huge marketing scam, and manus’ reputation in China has been ruined. Now they are conducting the exact same marketing operation on Twitter: only a few influencers have access, and they only offer praise, with no mention of any drawbacks.

Frankly speaking, after the release of deepseek, the whole world is prone to believe that there will be another outstanding Chinese AI product, and manus is exploiting this mindset.

Here are the positive reactions that I trust, via Nathan Labenz and Ethan Mollick.

Nathan Labenz: I have used it today and I think it is definitely something

Operator-like experience but smarter planning (OpenAI’s is intentionally dumb there from what I can tell) and longer leash

Obviously output won’t be without issues, but I got legit value on travel search and planning on first use

Google slides it fell down on – I think due to insufficient resources in the VM causing browser crash – should be easily fixed though not necessarily cheap to run

Way too early to call it a winner, but it’s a preview of the web agent future that doesn’t suck

Notably it handled an AirBnb date picker and actually returned links to places I could book with 1 “reserve” click

Operator struggled with that and most everything else has failed entirely ime.

Utopia: As far as I can tell Manus abstracts away the complexity of websites into something that is easier to handle for an AI agent. It doesn’t actually look at a screenshot of the website and move the cursor pixel by pixel. I suspect it looks at the HTML code.

Now Ethan:

Ethan Mollick: Finally had a chance to try Manus. It’s a Claude wrapper, but a very clever one. Runs into the same issues as general agents, including getting stuck, but also capable of some good stuff.

eg “get me the 10k for apple and visualize it in different ways to show me trends& details”

Short version is that if you have used other agentic systems like Claude Code or Deep Research, you will have a good sense of what this can do and what the limits are likely to be.

For those who haven’t used them, I suspect a lot of people will be surprised at what LLMs can do.

It’s easy to be surprised if you’re not keeping up. Claude is really good, after all. If you’re really willing to spin Sonnet 3.7 for hours, as Manus will do, you should be able to get a lot out of that. The unit economics are not going to be pretty.

The biggest hype came, as always, from Mckay Wrigley, hyper-in-chief.

Mackay Wrigley: Watch for a 14min demo of me using Manus for the 1st time. It’s *shockinglygood.

Now imagine this in 2-3 years when: – it has >180 IQ – never stops working – is 10x faster – and runs in swarms by the 1000s AGI is coming – expect rapid progress.

Yes, in two years AI agents are going to be absurdly powerful. Wait for it.

Mackay Wrigley: I do really want to emphasize that both the agent under-the-hood and the actual UI are both *incrediblywell done. It’s legitimately impressive, and as a reminder, I don’t do paid posts. I saw the viral posts and kind of went “yeah doubt it’s that good” and boy was I wrong.

I do really want to emphasize that both the agent under-the-hood and the actual UI are both *incrediblywell done.

It’s legitimately impressive, and as a reminder, I don’t do paid posts.

I saw the viral posts and kind of went “yeah doubt it’s that good” and boy was I wrong.

Okay after further use I’m doubling down…

If OpenAI released an equivalent called DeepTask and charged $1k/mo for unlimited usage I’d pay it in 2 seconds.

It’s creating an entire research report + spec based on my preferred tech stack from latest versions.

wtf

Literally thought this was gonna be vaporware and now I’m amidst an existential crisis.

Claude 3.7 Sonnet + a computer + tools.

It’s so so so bullish that using Claude 3.7 Sonnet you can build something this good. Unhobblings are all you need.

I found his self-doubt hilarious, I would never expect Mckay to be unimpressed by anything. Perhaps that’s selection bias and when he isn’t impressed he stays quiet?

Mckay is an odd case, because he’s always super excited and enthusiastic, so you should interpret his statements as maybe modest enthusiasm. While the huge positive bias makes it difficult to take his pronouncements seriously, I do think he’s making a sincere attempt to process the situation. And he’s doing it right in the sense that he’s looking ahead to what a similar thing can be, not to what this current thing already is.

I strongly agree that ‘unhobbling is all you need’ applies to agents under Sonnet 3.7, at least sufficiently to take you reasonably far.

Still, oh man, hype!

It’s easy to forget how many times we have to not fall for hype, especially for Chinese AI products that are catching up to use Real Soon Now. DeepSeek has been essentially the only exception so far.

People on the internet really do fall for a lot of hype. This was an extreme case, in that there was both a quick build up of hype and very quick pushback challenging the hype.

To start with the purest example: This post got 1.4 million views and a link in Marginal Revolution, showing a wide array of Twitter bots on simulated phones on a widescreen monitor, claiming to be about Manus.

As per official word, this one was entirely fake, the video is not Manus at all.

Which should have been obvious since Manus isn’t even for smartphones.

Stefan Schubert: It’s incredible how gullible many people are re these nonsense clips, conjoined with some hype claim. Even though the cofounder of this company replies saying it’s not them, it gets almost a thousand of retweets and breathless commentary, including from smart people. Ridiculous.

Hype works, in that you get headlines like ‘Was Manus Another DeepSeek moment?’ here in SCMP, whereas Wendy Chen wrote an article whose message is essentially ‘no, this is hype,’ fitting the pattern of headlines that take the form of a question.

Or you get linked to things like this AI Revolution video whose big selling point is that Manus is so hyped. The actual claims about what Manus can do are lifted directly from the one staged demo, and treat as remarkable feats that are highly unremarkable. We live in a world where we say things like (go to 4: 10) ‘the specifics are unknown but the hype is real.’ It even picks up on the ‘AGI’ mention, which is over-the-top silly.

Here’s Deedy’s thread saying it is ‘worth the hype,’ the example is both unimpressive and straight off Manus’s website.

Chubby doubles down that Manus is ‘way better than Deep Research.’

Chubby: I did not overhype Manus when I said it’s way better than DeepResearch.

Not only gives it way deeper analysis but it has so much more capabilities.

This is the real deal. The real „feel the AGI moment“.

Give it 6 more months so that it’s faster, more reliable and more intelligent and it will replace 50% of all white collar jobs.

The future is coming faster than we expect.

Half of all white collar jobs in six months, huh?

That doesn’t mean the hype couldn’t reflect something real and important.

So what’s with all the hype? It started in China, so let’s go to the source.

Here is a Chinese source, QQ News, reporting (via Google translate, bold in original). This write-up feels very Chinese, and very wise:

Chao Xing (QQ News, 3/8 17: 21): Manus is still in the beta stage, and some technology self-media that got the invitation code started to hype it up after trying it out. “Another sleepless night in the technology circle,” “Tonight the starry sky belongs to China,” “On par with DeepSeek, kicking OpenAI,” “AI Agent’s DeepSeek moment”… big headlines and exclamation marks flooded the screen one after another, and netizens who have not actually experienced it can’t help but feel like they are seeing things in the fog: “Is it really that amazing?”

Different standards and different positions will certainly lead to different judgments. In fact, both technological innovation and application innovation are worth encouraging. There is no need to create a contempt chain and judge who is superior. As for Manus itself, it is still difficult for it to handle many tasks and there are many problems that are difficult to overcome at this stage. Therefore, some self-media have exaggerated it and it is obviously suspected of excessive marketing to harvest traffic.

This impetuousness and utilitarianism are more clearly demonstrated in the “invitation code hype”. In the past two days, on some social platforms and e-commerce websites, a Manus invitation code has even been hyped up to 50,000 to 100,000 yuan. In addition, some people paid to join the Manus study group, sell application services on behalf of others, sell application tutorials, etc. All kinds of chaos have caused a lot of negative public opinion. In response, Manus issued two articles to respond and apologize, saying that it completely underestimated everyone’s enthusiasm, and at the same time refuted rumors such as opening a paid invitation code and investing in marketing budgets.

In the face of the “trend,” don’t “hype.” When looking forward to the next DeepSeek, don’t forget how DeepSeek came about – not rushing for quick success and instant benefits, but making innovations down to earth.

There are two ways to get invitation codes selling for ~$6k-$12k, while your company is only valued at roughly $100 million.

One way is to create such an amazing product that everyone needs it now.

The other way is to issue a limited number of codes and a managed bought rollout.

Even if Manus were as useful as its advocates claim, it’s clearly that second way.

A Chinese company (still based in Wuhan!) aiming to create AI agents aimed for foreign markets would seem to be facing serious headwinds. A key element of effectively deploying AI agents is trust. Being Chinese is a serious barrier to that trust. There’s no moat for agent wrappers, so if it turns out to be good, wouldn’t an American VC-backed firm quickly eat its lunch?

The stated plan is to use hype to get data, then use the data to build something good.

Jordan Schneider: [Cofounder] Xiao is explicitly describing an intent to build an incumbent advantage on a foundation of user data, and TikTok demonstrates how effective that strategy can be. Reliance on eventual mass adoption could partially explain the high-publicity invite-only launch strategy for Manus (although limited access to compute is also certainly a factor).

That’s not the worst plan if you could go it alone, but again the valuation now is only $100 million, and the acquire-data-via-blitzscaling plan is going to be bottlenecked by some combination of funding and compute. Claude Sonnet is not cheap.

This is exactly where a16z finds some plausible founders, they put together a slide deck over the weekend and then everyone invests $3 billion at a $10 billion valuation, half in compute credits, and they have a superior version of this thing inside of a month.

The thing that makes blitzscaling work is network effects or other moats. It makes sense to have negative unit economics and to recklessly and brazely illegally scale if that locks in the customers. But with AI agents, there should be limited network effects, and essentially no moats. There will be some customer lock-in via customization, perhaps, but a good AI future agent should be able to solve that problem for you the same way it solves everything else.

So what’s the actual reason a Chinese company might have a competitive edge?

There are two reasons I’ve been able to figure out.

DeepSeek’s v3 and r1 were impressive achievements. They cooked. What was even more impressive was the hype involved. People compared the $5.5 million to train v3 to the entire capital cost structure of American companies, and treated r1’s (still actually impressive) capabilities as far better than they actually were, and also it got in right under the deadline, within a few weeks with Grok 3 and Claude 3.7 and GPT-4.5 and o3-mini-high with visible CoTs, it was clear that r1 wasn’t all that, and you mostly wouldn’t use it in cases where you didn’t need an open model.

Instead, we got this whole narrative of ‘China caught up to America’ which was, frankly, blatantly not true. But there’s a lot of momentum in that narrative, and a lot of people want to push it. It’s in the air. This is also partly due to other Chinese successes like TikTok and Temu, in general so many want to say China is winning.

If an American startup with no resources did this while eating Raman noodles, it is a curiosity. If a Chinese startup does it, it’s an international power story. And people have been primed that the Chinese will somehow put out the version ‘for the people’ or whatever. So, hype!

There’s no question that the big American labs could have launched something better than even the best-case version of Manus well before Manus. But they didn’t.

Dean Ball raises the other theory. What if Manus is regulatory arbitrage?

No, America has not passed substantive regulation of AI, but we have passed various regulations on other things, that apply to AI. What if the real Manus secret sauce is ‘you cannot sue us for our unreliable product?’

This combines Dean’s claims from several threads, if you want details:

Dean Ball: It is wrong to call manus a “deepseek moment.” Deepseek was about replication of capabilities already publicly achieved by American firms. Manus is actually advancing the frontier. The most sophisticated computer using ai now comes from a Chinese startup, full stop.

It’s interesting to note that every single one of the use cases manus shows in their own demo video is heavily regulated in the us (employment, real estate, finance), and would specifically be very strictly regulated uses under the “algorithmic discrimination” regs in the states.

Every use case of manus in the company’s demo video would be an enormous liability and regulatory risk for American companies (under current law! No sb 1047 required!), particularly given the glitchiness of manus.

The first use case manus demonstrates in their video is using an ai to screen resumes. In multiple jurisdictions, and soon in many, there are many laws targeting this precise use of ai. Even without those laws, there have been eeoc actions against similar uses under existing civil rights law.

If an American firm had shipped manus last month at manus’ current quality level, they’d currently be facing multiple investigations by state attorneys general, and if a democrat had won the White House, ftc and/or doj too (and conceivably dol, sec, eeoc, pick your poison)

The United States does not have a light touch regulatory approach to ai. Without a single ai-specific law passing, the united states already has an exceptionally burdensome and complex ai regulatory regime. Without action, this problem gets worse, not better.

It’s not that complex:

1. The United States has a lot of really complicated and broadly drafted laws

2. Those laws are going to bite us in the ass over and over again with ai, since ai is a gpt

3. A republic is modestly resilient to overbroad laws, because it is supposed to be governed and peopled by the virtuous .

4. For a while, this was true, but it isn’t true anymore. In particular, our governing elite class is generally of remarkably poor quality (not a left-right criticism).

5. So we kinda don’t have a republic anymore, in the sense that we don’t have one of the most important ingredients for one, according to the founders of the country

6. The bad overbroad laws will be used by our bad elites in bad ways to distort and slow down the most important thing that’s ever happened

7. We are plausibly deeply and profoundly fucked, and even if not we have a lot of work to do to fix our entire regulatory apparatus

8. Tech people don’t tend to understand any of this because they haven’t thought deeply, for the most part, about these topics (which is fine!)

9. I am trying to warn them

To be clear, manus is not that surprising of a capability. I’m sure American companies have had such things behind closed doors for months. And I hear manus may even be based in part on us models (Claude).

The reason us firms haven’t shipped this capability is legal risk.

Nathan (replying to explanation of illegality of the demos): Sure but this is true of non agentic AI tools for this purpose.

Dean Ball: Yep. But enforcement actions in America aren’t motivated by facts, they’re motivated by headlines. Simply having a buzzy product is a regulatory risk for that reason.

The core argument is that America has lots of laws, almost anything you do violates those laws, including many currently common uses of AI, and at some point people will get big mad or respond to hype by trying to enforce the laws as written, and this will heavily slow down AI deployment in extremely expensive ways.

Or, to use his words, ‘we are plausibly deeply and profoundly fed, and even if not we have a lot of work to do to fix our entire regulatory apparatus.’

That statement is definitely true in general, rather than about AI! We are profoundly fed in a wide variety of ways. We almost can’t build houses, or transmission lines and power plants, or do most other things in the world of atoms, without horribly inflated costs and timelines and often not even then.

And to the extent we do still actually do things, quite often the way we do those things is we ignore the laws and the laws aren’t enforced, but AI reduces the levels of friction required to enforce those laws, and makes what was previously implicit and vague and deniable much easier to identify. Which in these cases is big trouble.

And yes, there are many state efforts currently out there that would make this situation worse, in some cases much worse, with very little in compensatory gains.

None of this has anything at all to do with existential risk or catastrophic risk concerns, or any attempt to prevent such outcomes, or any ‘doomer’ proposals. Indeed, those who notice that AI might kill everyone are consistently in opposition to the overly burdensome regulatory state across the board, usually including everything in AI aside from frontier model development.

As an obligatory aside you can skip: Dean mentions the vetoed SB 1047. It seems like a good time to point out that SB 1047 not only is not required, it would not have made these problems substantively worse and could have established a framework that if anything reduced uncertainty while imposing only very modest costs and only on the biggest players, while buying us a lot of transparency and responsibility for the things that actually matter. Even if you think there were few benefits to laws like SB 1047, it was a very foolish place to be concentrating rhetorical firepower. But I digress.

If we really do want America to win the future, then yes we need broad based regulatory reform to make it actually true that You Can Just Do Things again, because for AI to do something, the thing has to actually get done, and our laws have a problem with that. That is something I would be happy to support, indeed my nonprofit Balsa Research is all about trying to do some of that.

Thus, I think any time is a good time to raise the alarm about this. The last thing we want to do is charge ahead to superintelligence with no regulations on that whatsoever, potentially getting everyone killed, while we cannot reap the bounty of what AI we already have due to dumb regulations.

Indeed, the nightmare is that the very inability to exploit (in the best sense) AI causes America to feel it has no choice but to push even farther ahead, more recklessly, even faster, because otherwise we will fail to use what we have and risk falling behind.

But how does this apply to Manus?

Dean Ball claims that an American company launching this would face multiple investigations and be in big legal trouble, and that legal risk is the reason American companies have not launched this.

I mostly don’t buy this.

I don’t buy it because of the track record, and because other considerations dominate.

We can draw a distinction between the large American tech companies worth tens of billions to trillions, including OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, and relatively small companies, largely startups, in a similar position to Manus.

For the larger companies, they did not launch a Manus because the product isn’t good enough yet, and they have reputations and customers to protect. Yes, there was also potential legal liability, but much more so in the ‘you lost all the customers money and they are mad about it’ sense than anything Dean Ball is complaining about. Mostly I see the risks as reputation loss borne of actual harm.

Also one can look at the track record. I expected vastly more legal trouble and restrictions for AI companies than we have actually seen.

We now regularly turn to AI for legal advice and medical advice. The AI offers it freely. The same goes for essentially everything else, there are simple jailbreaks for all the major LLMs. And it’s all fine, totally fine. What lawsuits there have been have been about the training data or other copyright violations.

Do we think for a second that AI isn’t being constantly used for resumes and real estate searches and such? Is there any attempt whatsoever to stop this?

The regime is very clear. I give you an AI to use how you see fit. What you choose to do with it is your problem. If you give an agent a command that violates EEOC’s rules, do not go crying to an AI developer.

Here’s how seriously we take all this right now, shall we say:

The one way in which this might be a ‘DeepSeek moment’ is that it could give a green light to American companies to be more aggressive in what they release. OpenAI moved various releases up in response to r1, and it is possible so did xAI or Anthropic.

Manus could act similarly, by showing how excited people would be for an actually good unhobbled AI agent, even if it was unreliable and often fell on its face and has to have a gigantic ‘at your own risk on so many levels’ sign attached to it. Now that the competition seems to force your hand and ‘makes you look good’ on the security front, why not go for it? It’s not like the Trump administration is going to mind.

I don’t even see anything in the resume analysis here that is an obvious EEOC violation even for the employer here. I can certainly agree that it is a perilous use case.

Let’s move on then to the second case, since Dean claims all the demo cases had violations. Does Dean actually think that an AI company would get into trouble because an AI compiled a report on various different NYC neighborhoods and filtered through apartment listings, for a buyer? I don’t get where the objection comes from here. Yes, as a seller there are various things you are not allowed to mention or consider. But as the buyer, or on behalf of the buyer? That’s a different ballgame.

Today, right now, there are algorithmic programs that tell landlords what rent to charge, in what critics claim is collusion on price, and which also almost certainly takes into account all the characteristics considered here in the demo, one way or another? And they want laws to ban such uses, exactly because the software is in widespread use, here in America.

Then the third thing is a stock analysis and stock correlation analysis, which is again a thing firms offer all the time, and where again I don’t see the issue. Is this ‘investment advice’? It doesn’t seem like it to me, it seems very specific and measured, and if this is investment advice then it’s no worse than what we see from Claude or ChatGPT, which are giving investment, medical and legal advice constantly.

Dean’s response is that enforcement here is based on hype, not what you actually do. But most of the existing AI hype belongs to major AI companies, again which are aiding and abetting all these violations constantly. The relevant absurd laws are, quite correctly, not being enforced in these ways. There are no investigations.

We also have a long history of technology startups essentially ignoring various regulations, then ‘fixing it in post’ down the line or flat out upending the relevant laws. Who can forget Uber’s strategy, deploying a very explicitly illegal service?

Certainly when at the level of Manus, which again is raising around $100 million, companies in Silicon Valley or at YC are told to Just Ship Things, to Do Things That Don’t Scale, and worry about the regulatory problems later. Something like half the YC class are doing AI agents in one form or another.

So why didn’t one of them do it? We all agree it’s not lack of technical chops. I very much do not think it is ‘because they would face an inquiry from the EEOC or attorney general’ either. It’s vanishingly unlikely, and if it did happen a YC company would love to get that level of hype and investigation, and sort it out later, what great publicity, totally worth it.

The actual legal issue is that this is a Claude wrapper, that’s why it works so well. Of course you can get good results with a jailbreak-inclusive Claude wrapper if you don’t care about the downside risks, to the user or otherwise, and you tailor your presentation to a narrow set of use cases, then call it a ‘universal’ AI agent. The actual ‘regulatory arbitrage’ that counts here is that Anthropic would rather you didn’t do that and all the associated problems.

Ignore the first sentence in Tyler Cowen’s post here, where he asserts that Manus is ‘for real, and ahead of its American counterparts.’ That’s a rather silly way of summarizing the situation, given everything we now know.

But as he notes, the more important question is the hypothetical. What would happen if a Chinese agentic product ‘got there’ before American agentic products, was an r2 wrapper rather than Claude, and was good enough that there was local incentive to let it ‘crawl all over American computers?’

The first answer is ‘Americans would beat it inside of a month.’

I don’t agree with Dean Ball that the main concern is legal risk in the sense of bias laws, but I do agree that the reason is a broader aversion to this form of general recklessness. It’s some combination of reputational risk, normal liability risk, some amount of amorphous weird legal risks, general alarm risk from agents being scary, and also compute limitations and a lack of focus on such projects.

If suddenly there were Chinese AI agents good enough that Americans were starting to deploy them, I predict that would all change quickly. There would not only be less fear of backlash, there would be government pressure to launch better agent products yesterday to fix the situation. Deals would be made.

But let’s suppose a less convenient possible world, that this isn’t true, and the Americans are indefinitely unable to catch up. Now what?

Tyler’s claim is that there is not much we could do about it. Yes, we could ban the Chinese agent from government computers, but we basically can’t ban software use. Except, of course, we effectively tell people we can’t use things for various purposes all the time. We could and likely would absolutely ban such use in ‘critical infrastructure’ and in a wide variety of other use cases, remove it from app stores and so on. Almost everyone would go on using American versions in those spots instead even if they were objectively worse, it’s not hard to twist most arms on this.

Yes, some people would use VPNs or otherwise work around restrictions and use the Chinese versions anyway, but this is a strange place to think we can’t mostly tell people what to do.

The exception would be if the Chinese version was so superior that America would be crippled not to use it, but in that case we’ve pretty much already lost either way.

Tyler Cowen points out that if it were otherwise, and a Chinese agent system were to get deep within America’s computers and core functions, this scenario is an obviously unacceptable security risk, on various levels.

But then he says maybe it’s fine, because the incentives will all work out, in some system of checks and balances?

Maybe this upends the authority of the CCP, somehow, he suggests? But without suggesting that perhaps this upends human authority in general, that perhaps the scenario being described is exactly one of gradual disempowerment as humans stop being meaningfully in charge? Except because he sees this as disempowering specifically the CCP it is oddly framed as something not to worry about, rather than an existential risk because the same thing happens to everyone else too?

He says ‘I am not talking about doomsday scenarios here’ but please stop and notice that no, you are wrong, you are talking about a doomsday scenario here! Alignment of the systems does not save you from this, do your economist job and solve for the equilibrium you yourself are implying.

Tyler Cowen: (There is plenty of discussion of alignment problems with AI. A neglected issue is whether the alignment solution resulting from the competitive process is biased on net toward “universal knowledge” entities, or some other such description, rather than “dogmatic entities.” Probably it is, and probably that is a good thing? …But is it always a good thing?)

If what survives into the future is simply ‘that which results from the competitive process’ then why do you think humanity is one of the things that survives?

Tyler Cowen: Let’s say China can indeed “beat” America at AI, but at the cost of giving up control over China, at least as that notion is currently understood. How does that change the world?

Solve for the equilibrium!

Who exactly should be most afraid of Manus and related advances to come?

Who loses the most status in the new, resulting checks and balances equilibrium?

Who gains?

So three responses.

First, it changes the world in that they would, by default, do it anyway, and give up control over China, and thus humanity would lose control over the future. Because they will do it gradually rather than all at once, before we have the chance to do it first, right? Isn’t that the ‘logical’ result?

Second, yes, now that we solved for the equilibrium, we should Pick Up the Phone.

Third, to answer your question of who should be most afraid…

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study:-megalodon’s-body-shape-was-closer-to-a-lemon-shark

Study: Megalodon’s body shape was closer to a lemon shark


the mighty, mighty megalodon

Also: Baby megalodons were likely the size of great white sharks and capable of hunting marine mammals

The giant extinct shark species known as the megalodon has captured the interest of scientists and the general public alike, even inspiring the 2018 blockbuster film The Meg. The species lived some 3.6 million years ago and no complete skeleton has yet been found. So there has been considerable debate among paleobiologists about megalodon’s size, body shape and swimming speed, among other characteristics.

While some researchers have compared megalodon to a gigantic version of the stocky great white shark,  others believe the species had a more slender body shape. A new paper published in the journal Palaeontologia Electronica bolsters the latter viewpoint, also drawing conclusions about the megalodon’s body mass, swimming speed (based on hydrodynamic principles), and growth patterns.

As previously reported, the largest shark alive today, reaching up to 20 meters long, is the whale shark, a sedate filter feeder. As recently as 4 million years ago, however, sharks of that scale likely included the fast-moving predator megalodon (formally Otodus megalodon). Due to incomplete fossil data, we’re not entirely sure how large megalodons were and can only make inferences based on some of their living relatives.

Thanks to research published in 2023 on its fossilized teeth, we’re now fairly confident that megalodon shared something else with these relatives: it wasn’t entirely cold-blooded and kept its body temperature above that of the surrounding ocean. Most sharks, like most fish, are ectothermic, meaning that their body temperatures match those of the surrounding water. But a handful of species, part of a group termed mackerel sharks, are endothermic: They have a specialized pattern of blood circulation that helps retain some of the heat their muscles produce. This enables them to keep some body parts at a higher temperature than their surroundings.

Of particular relevance to this latest paper is a 2022 study by Jack Cooper of Swansea University in the UK and his co-authors. In 2020, the team reconstructed a 2D model of the megalodon, basing the dimensions on similar existing shark species. The researchers followed up in 2022 with a reconstructed 3D model, extrapolating the dimensions from a megalodon specimen (a vertebral column) in Belgium. Cooper concluded that a megalodon would have been a stocky, powerful shark—measuring some 52 feet (16 meters) in length with a body mass of 67.86 tons—able to execute bursts of high speed to attack prey, much like the significantly smaller great white shark.

(H) One of the largest vertebrae of Otodus meg- alodon; (I and J) CT scans showing cross-sectional views.

(H) One of the largest vertebrae of Otodus megalodon; (I and J) CT scans showing cross-sectional views. Credit: Shimada et al., 2025

Not everyone agreed, however, Last year, a team of 26 shark experts led by Kesnshu Shimada, a paleobiologist at DePaul University, further challenged the great white shark comparison, arguing that the super-sized creature’s body was more slender and possibly even longer than researchers previously thought. The team concluded that based on the spinal column, the combination of a great white build with the megalodon’s much longer length would have simply proved too cumbersome.

A fresh approach

Now Shimada is back with a fresh analysis, employing a new method that he says provides independent lines of evidence for the megalodon’s slender build. “Our new study does not use the modern great white shark as a model, but rather simply asks, ‘How long were the head and tail based on the trunk [length] represented by the fossil vertebral column?’ using the general body plan seen collectively in living and fossil sharks,” Shimada told Ars.

Shimada and his co-authors measured the proportions of 145 modern and 20 extinct species of shark, particularly the head, trunk, and tail relative to total body length. Megalodon was represented by a Belgian vertebral specimen. The largest vertebra in that specimen measured 15.5 centimeters (6 inches) in diameter, although there are other megalodon vertebrae in Denmark, for example, with diameters as much as 23 centimeters (9 inches).

Based on their analysis, Shimada et al, concluded that, because the trunk section of the Belgian specimen measured 11 meters, the head and tail were probably about 1.8 meters (6 feet) and 3.6 meters (12 feet) long, respectively, with a total body length of 16.4 meters (54 feet) for this particularly specimen. That means the Danish megalodon specimens could have been as long as 24.3 meters (80 feet). As for body shape, taking the new length estimates into account, the lemon shark appears to be closest modern analogue. “However, the exact position and shape of practically all the fins remain uncertain,” Shimada cautioned. “We are only talking about the main part of the body.”

Revised tentative body outline of 24.3 meters (80 feet) extinct megatooth shark, Otodus megalodon.

Credit: DePaul University/Kenshu Shimada

The team also found that a 24.3-meter-long megalodon would have weighed a good 94 tons with an estimated swimming speed of 2.1-3.5 KPM (1.3-2.2 MPH). They also studied growth patterns evident in the Belgian vertebrae, concluding that the megalodon would give live birth and that the  newborns would be between 3.6 to 3.9 meters (12-13 feet) long—i.e., roughly the size of a great white shark. The authors see this as a refutation of the hypothesis that megalodons relied on nursery areas to rear their young, since a baby megalodon would be quite capable of hunting and killing marine mammals based on size alone.

In addition, “We unexpectedly unlocked the mystery of why certain aquatic vertebrates can attain gigantic sizes while others cannot,” Shimada said. “Living gigantic sharks, such as the whale shark and basking shark, as well as many other gigantic aquatic vertebrates like whales have slender bodies because large stocky bodies are hydrodynamically inefficient for swimming.”

That’s in sharp contrast to the great white shark, whose stocky body becomes even stockier as it grows. “It can be ‘large’ but cannot [get] past 7 meters (23 feet) to be ‘gigantic’ because of hydrodynamic constraints,” said Shimada. “We also demonstrate that the modern great white shark with a stocky body hypothetically blown up to the size of megalodon would not allow it to be an efficient swimmer due to the hydrodynamic constraints, further supporting the idea that it is more likely than not that megalodon must have had a much slenderer body than the modern great white shark.”

Shimada emphasized that their interpretations remain tentative but they are based on hard data and make for useful reference points for future research.

An “exciting working hypothesis”

For his part, Cooper found a lot to like in Shimada et al.’s latest analysis. “I’d say everything presented here is interesting and presents an exciting working hypothesis but that these should also be taken with a grain of salt until they can either be empirically tested, or a complete skeleton of megalodon is found to confirm one way or the other,” Cooper told Ars. “Generally, I appreciate the paper’s approach to its body size calculation in that it uses a lot of different shark species and doesn’t make any assumptions as to which species are the best analogues to megalodon.”

Shark biologists now say a lemon shark, like this one, is a better model of the extinct megalodon's body than the great white shark.

Shark biologists now say a lemon shark, like this one, is a better model of the extinct megalodon’s body than the great white shark. Credit: Albert Kok

Cooper acknowledged that it makes sense that a megalodon would be slightly slower than a great white given its sheer size, “though it does indicate we’ve got a shark capable of surprisingly fast speeds for its size,” he said. As for Shimada’s new growth model, he pronounced it “really solid” and concurred with the findings on birthing with one caveat. “I think the refutation of nursery sites is a bit of a leap, though I understand the temptation given the remarkably large size of the baby sharks,” he said. “We have geological evidence of multiple nurseries—not just small teeth, but also geological evidence of the right environmental conditions.”

He particularly liked Shinada et al.’s final paragraph. “[They] call out ‘popular questions’ along the lines of, ‘Was megalodon stronger than Livyatan?'” said Cooper. “I agree with the authors that these sorts of questions—ones we all often get asked by ‘fans’ on social media—are really not productive, as these unscientific questions disregard the rather amazing biology we’ve learned about this iconic, real species that existed, and reduce it to what I can only describe as a video game character.”

Regardless of how this friendly ongoing debate plays out, our collective fascination with megalodon is likely to persist. “It’s the imagining of such a magnificently enormous shark swimming around our oceans munching on whales, and considering that geologically speaking this happened in the very recent past,” said Cooper of the creature’s appeal. “It really captures what evolution can achieve, and even the huge size of their teeth alone really put it into perspective.”

DOI: Palaeontologia Electronica, 2025. 10.26879/1502  (About DOIs).

Photo of Jennifer Ouellette

Jennifer is a senior writer at Ars Technica with a particular focus on where science meets culture, covering everything from physics and related interdisciplinary topics to her favorite films and TV series. Jennifer lives in Baltimore with her spouse, physicist Sean M. Carroll, and their two cats, Ariel and Caliban.

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white-house-may-seek-to-slash-nasa’s-science-budget-by-50-percent

White House may seek to slash NASA’s science budget by 50 percent

In many ways, NASA’s science directorate is the crown jewel of the space agency. Nearly all of the most significant achievements over the last 25 years have been delivered by the science programs: Ingenuity flying on Mars, New Horizons swooping by Pluto, images from the James Webb Space Telescope, the discovery of thousands of exoplanets, the return of samples from asteroids and comets, Cassini’s discovery of water plumes on Enceladus, a continuous robotic presence on Mars, and so much more. Even the recent lunar landings by Firefly and Intuitive Machines were funded by NASA’s science directorate.

Of NASA’s roughly $25 billion budget, however, only about 30 percent is allocated to science. For fiscal year 2024, this amounted to $7.4 billion. This spending was broken down into approximately $2.7 billion for planetary science, $2.2 billion for Earth science, $1.5 billion for astrophysics, and $800 million for heliophysics.

NASA science funding since 1980.

Credit: Casey Dreier/The Planetary Society

NASA science funding since 1980. Credit: Casey Dreier/The Planetary Society

The proposed cuts are being driven by Russell Vought, the recently confirmed director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, which sets budget and policy priorities for a presidential administration. In some sense, the budgetary decisions should not come as a surprise, as they are consistent with what Vought proposed in a “shadow” budget for fiscal-year 2023 as part of his Center for Renewing America.

“The budget also proposes a 50 percent reduction in NASA Science programs and spending, reducing their misguided Carbon Reduction System spending and Global Climate Change programs,” Vought’s organization wrote in its report published in December 2022.

Zeroing out Earth science?

Despite Vought’s desire, however, NASA is expressly charged with studying our planet.

The congressional act that created NASA in 1958 calls for the space agency to expand human knowledge about Earth’s atmosphere and space, and the agency’s Earth observation satellites have substantially increased our understanding of this planet’s weather, changing climate, and land use.

Even if NASA’s Earth science budget were taken to zero, cutting the overall science budget in half would still dramatically reduce funding in planetary science as well as other research areas. Scientists told Ars that NASA would be forced to make difficult decisions, likely including shutting off extended missions such as the Voyager and Curiosity probes on Mars, and possibly even the Hubble Space Telescope. It might be possible to save missions in later stages of development, such as the Dragonfly probe to Saturn’s moon Titan, and the NEO Surveyor mission to search for hazardous asteroids. But it would be impossible to start meaningful new missions to explore the Solar System, potentially setting back planetary exploration a decade.

White House may seek to slash NASA’s science budget by 50 percent Read More »

measles-outbreak-hits-208-cases-as-federal-response-goes-off-the-rails

Measles outbreak hits 208 cases as federal response goes off the rails

Vitamin A is a fat-soluble vitamin that stays in the body. Taking too much over longer periods can cause vomiting, headache, fatigue, joint and bone pain, blurry vision, and skin and hair problems. Further, it can lead to dangerously high pressure inside the skull that pushes on the brain, as well as liver damage, confusion, coma, and other problems, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Nevertheless, in an interview with Fox News this week, Kennedy endorsed an unconventional regimen of a steroid, an antibiotic and cod liver oil, praising two Texas doctors for giving it to patients. One of the doctors Kennedy championed was disciplined by the state medical board in 2003 for “unusual use of risk-filled medications,” according to a report by CNN.

In a yet more worrying sign, Reuters reported Friday afternoon that the CDC is planning to conduct a large study on whether the MMR vaccine is linked to autism. This taxpayer-funded effort would occur despite the fact that decades of research and numerous high-quality studies have already been conducted—and they have consistently disproven or found no connection between the vaccine and autism.

The agency’s move is exactly what Democratic senators feared when Kennedy was confirmed as the country’s top health official. In Senate hearings, Kennedy refused to say that vaccines do not cause autism. Democratic senators quickly warned that his anti-vaccine stance could not only move the country backward in the fight against vaccine-preventable diseases, but also hold back autism research aimed at finding the real cause(s) as well as better treatments.

“When you continue to sow doubt about settled science it makes it impossible for us to move forward,” Senator Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) said in a Senate hearing. “It’s the relitigating and rehashing … it freezes us in place.”

Measles outbreak hits 208 cases as federal response goes off the rails Read More »

music-labels-will-regret-coming-for-the-internet-archive,-sound-historian-says

Music labels will regret coming for the Internet Archive, sound historian says

But David Seubert, who manages sound collections at the University of California, Santa Barbara library, told Ars that he frequently used the project as an archive and not just to listen to the recordings.

For Seubert, the videos that IA records of the 78 RPM albums capture more than audio of a certain era. Researchers like him want to look at the label, check out the copyright information, and note the catalogue numbers, he said.

“It has all this information there,” Seubert said. “I don’t even necessarily need to hear it,” he continued, adding, “just seeing the physicality of it, it’s like, ‘Okay, now I know more about this record.'”

Music publishers suing IA argue that all the songs included in their dispute—and likely many more, since the Great 78 Project spans 400,000 recordings—”are already available for streaming or downloading from numerous services.”

“These recordings face no danger of being lost, forgotten, or destroyed,” their filing claimed.

But Nathan Georgitis, the executive director of the Association for Recorded Sound Collections (ARSC), told Ars that you just don’t see 78 RPM records out in the world anymore. Even in record stores selling used vinyl, these recordings will be hidden “in a few boxes under the table behind the tablecloth,” Georgitis suggested. And in “many” cases, “the problem for libraries and archives is that those recordings aren’t necessarily commercially available for re-release.”

That “means that those recordings, those artists, the repertoire, the recorded sound history in itself—meaning the labels, the producers, the printings—all of that history kind of gets obscured from view,” Georgitis said.

Currently, libraries trying to preserve this history must control access to audio collections, Georgitis said. He sees IA’s work with the Great 78 Project as a legitimate archive in that, unlike a streaming service, where content may be inconsistently available, IA’s “mission is to preserve and provide access to content over time.”

Music labels will regret coming for the Internet Archive, sound historian says Read More »

childhood-and-education-#9:-school-is-hell

Childhood and Education #9: School is Hell

This complication of tales from the world of school isn’t all negative. I don’t want to overstate the problem. School is not hell for every child all the time. Learning occasionally happens. There are great teachers and classes, and so on. Some kids really enjoy it.

School is, however, hell for many of the students quite a lot of the time, and most importantly when this happens those students are usually unable to leave.

Also, there is a deliberate ongoing effort to destroy many of the best remaining schools and programs that we have, in the name of ‘equality’ and related concerns. Schools often outright refuse to allow their best and most eager students to learn. If your school is not hell for the brightest students, they want to change that.

Welcome to the stories of primary through high school these days.

  1. Primary School.

  2. Math is Hard.

  3. High School.

  4. Great Teachers.

  5. Not as Great Teachers.

  6. The War on Education.

  7. Sleep.

  8. School Choice.

  9. Microschools.

  10. The War Against Home Schools.

  11. Home School Methodology.

  12. School is Hell.

  13. Bored Out of Their Minds.

  14. The Necessity of the Veto.

  15. School is a Simulation of Future Hell.

Peter Gray reports on the Tennessee Pre-K experiment, where they subjected four year olds to 5.5 hours a day of academics five times a week. Not only did the control group (kids whose parents applied and got randomly rejected, so this was effectively an unblinded RCT) catch up on academics by third grade, the control group was well ahead by sixth grade, and the treatment group had a lot more rule violations and diagnosed learning disabilities. I think Peter’s conclusion that drill in Pre-K and kindergarten is actively bad is overreach, since the dose often makes the poison, but yeah focusing on drill that early seems terrible.

NYC officials consider virtual learning to reduce class size. It seems the law requires there be no more than 20 to 25 kids in a classroom depending on grade level. So the proposed solution is to get rid of some of classrooms entirely. Transparent villains happy to inflict torture upon children.

How to organize a protest against your teacher, recommended, made me smile.

Scott Alexander asks, given Americans clearly do not know basic facts that were supposedly taught in school, but do remember things through cultural osmosis, what is even the point of school? If you learn via spaced repetition, isn’t school failing rather miserably at that? The unstated question there is if you actually wanted to teach things, wouldn’t you used spaced repetition, which schools don’t use in any systematic way. The answer to the puzzle, of course, is that school is not about learning.

Your periodic reminder: Characteristics of White Supremacy Culture according to the San Francisco Unified School District. Features of ‘white supremacy culture’ include Perfectionism, Individualism, Sense of Urgency and Objectivity. They end by saying we can do better.

A theory, from a longer thread.

David Bessis: The #1 reason why we fail to teach math: we present it as knowledge without telling kids it’s a motor skill developed by practicing unseen actions in your head. Passive listening is useless, yet we never say it. We’re basically asking kids to take notes during yoga lessons.

Math is about reconfiguring our brains and reprogramming our intuitions. By ignoring this, we effectively refuse to teach math. We teach the cryptic symbols and convoluted formulas, but we never teach the secret art of making intuitive sense of them.

I think he severely oversells it in the longer thread, but he has a good point. You learn math by doing, by messing around, by experimenting and playing. Math lectures are relatively a waste of time.

Even getting math thought at all is increasingly hard. Here’s governor Newsom, signing a law, SB 1410, explicitly to force Algebra I to be taught to eighth graders, and all he can do is require the Instructional Quality Commission to ‘consider including’ that it be offered. What happens when they consider it, and simply say no?

Florida 9th graders rebel against their Algebra 1 state exam, refuse to take it despite it being a graduation requirement, in sufficient quantities to invalidate the test.

I do not see why any test would have an attendance requirement to count? Let the half that want to take it take it now, the other half can change their minds and study for a refresher when they realize they won’t graduate without it. At least if we don’t cave.

Alternatively, if the students can simply form a union and make the school cave, let’s see what else they want to do with that power, shall we?

Even if you end up at a ‘good’ school, a 10/10 rated school, what do you get? Mostly you get a lot of wasted time.

Tracing Woodgrains: This thread is absolutely correct. Sometimes people treat “good schools” as black boxes where you put kids in and education pops out, with everything working well

But for many kids, their core memory of even “good schools” will simply be waiting idly. So much more is possible.

Simon Sarris: The schools in my town are fine. The high school has 10/10 score on GreatSchools and the others have high scores for academics

But the best public (and many private!) schools still do very little in terms of education and take up too much time. Most engaged parents could not only do more with less time, but do more interesting things, and have more help around the house as the kids grow, since they’re around much more of each day.

The curriculum at so many schools just has terribly low expectations of what a child should be learning. Looking at the english/lit curriculum here was glum. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was disappointing at “elite” colleges now, too.

I have higher expectations than that.

I went to excellent catholic schools for 12 years. I had a fine time. I liked all my teachers.

Still, my biggest childhood memory of school was just waiting. Waiting for everyone else to be done, waiting for the day to be over, waiting to be picked up. I think we can do better.

Matthew Yglesias: It’s mostly child care (for young kids) or prison (for teens) where the hope is that some learning takes place. You could teach much more efficiently but then the kids would have to go somewhere else.

Freia (QTing Lehman below): Public school isn’t just tailored to the average student, it’s designed to oppress and humiliate smarter kids with genuine curiosity and enthusiasm for learning.

Every smart kid has stories of trying to read under the desk to escape the monotony and having their book taken.

These kinds of kids are acing the exams, and unlike e.g. talking, reading under the desk bothers no one. confiscation is just punitive.

It’s hilarious that their justification is always “respect”, as if it’s not disrespectful to waste hours of kids’ lives w/ useless “teaching.”

In HS i skipped a year of math by reading a textbook & taking a placement exam. it took me ~40 hours over 10 days to teach myself the material—taking the class would have been >200 hrs. the amount of kids’ time we’re wasting is totally unconscionable.

Why does this continue to be true? One reason: A lot of people do not care about smart kids. Or they actively want them to suffer.

Charles Fain Lehman (1m views): I think we underrate how hard it is to provide education to a range of abilities at scale. If the smart kids are bored, that’s an okay outcome.

Most interventions don’t work at scale! School kind of does some stuff! That’s pretty good!

I also spent a lot of time waiting as a kid. That was good! I’m glad that I was forced to wait. It was an important lesson in how my edification is not the most important thing.

But ofc, this is exactly the fallacy. “Everyone should have their ideal outcome.” But they can’t under given constraints! The question is always how to optimize.

In other words, you.

Seriously, what the actual ?

Here’s a general response: if you think (as the qt does) that “so much more is possible,” provide me with an evidence-based intervention that a) reduces smart kids’ boredom and b) yields large increases in attainment. I’m happy to hear about them!

Okay, at least that is a form of the right question. I don’t know why it has to be ‘and’ here. If the smart kids are not bored, or it increases attainment, either one of those is super awesome on its own. So can we do either or both of these things, at scale, without actively damaging the other?

Yes. Obviously. ‘Evidence based’ requires someone collecting whatever you consider admissible evidence for your particular court, but here are some interventions that seem very very obviously like they do these things.

  1. Magnet schools or tracking. Give them their own classroom with more advanced topics. Why do I even have to say this.

  2. Allow grade skipping, both in individual subjects and overall. If you can pass the tests, you can move up. Obviously this will help with both issues. If you say ‘what about socialization if you aren’t stuck in classrooms with kids exactly your own age’ short of kids trying to skip 4+ years prior to high school then I will flat out piledriver you.

  3. Let kids acing a class do other things when bored, and ideally skip the busywork too. This could not be simpler. If you are getting an A, and you want to read a book about something else, or do homework for another class, go ahead. If you want to be a jerk limit it to ‘educational’ things, sure, fine.

  4. Let the kid stay home and learn from LLMs and textbooks, provided they keep passing your periodic tests. Seriously.

  5. Let the kid take online college classes. Arizona State University’s are $25 each and some are done by children as young as 8. Others are often outright free.

There is mostly universal agreement that great teachers are much better than good teachers, who are much better than bad teachers. There is not agreement about how to find, create or enable the good and great teachers, or how to fire and avoid the bad ones.

Strangest of all, there is no agreement that we even should in theory be firing the bad teachers and hiring good ones. It’s easier said than done, but you have to say it first. There are even those who say ‘it is wrong to attempt to get your child in front of better teachers, that’s not fair,’ which is somehow not a strawman.

Noah Smith: Progressives claim test scores are about family wealth. Conservatives claim test scores are about IQ. But a lot of test scores are about the government’s ability to FIRE BAD TEACHERS AND HIRE GOOD TEACHERS.

Alz: Here’s a fun paper by a Stanford econ JMC on grade school math teachers. Looking at AMC data matched to Linkedin, paper finds that even just decent, above-average middle/high school math teachers dramatically increase students’ AMC scores: top AMC scorers increase by 165%!

The paper in question is ‘Early Mentors for Exceptional Students,’ which is a different topic than finding good teachers in general, but finds that exceptional teachers going the extra mile can massively increase the chances talented students will win honors, attend selective universities, and have the most valuable career paths. There are obvious concerns about selection effects, they did some work to minimize that but I’d still be wary.

Alex Tabarrok emphasizes that the highest marginal educational value is in mentoring the smartest and most talented kids to be all they can be. Having access to a mentor greatly increases the chance that our best talent truly excels. Roughly half of the potential top math students in the country stay unidentified. Alas, so many in education think that when exceptional students get a chance to excel further, this is at best a nice to have, and perhaps even bad because it ‘increases inequality.’

The broader point from Noah Smith is also important. If we believe teacher quality is valuable, why are we in so many ways not acting like that?

Which leads to the question, what factors predict teacher quality?

Journal of Public Economics: Just published in @JPubEcon”The unintended consequences of merit-based teacher selection: Evidence from a large-scale reform in Colombia.

The paper examines a nationwide merit-based teacher-hiring system in Colombia that replaced experienced contract teachers with higher test-performing new teachers. The reform decreased students’ test scores and reduced college enrollment and graduation by more than 10 percent.

The paper examines the effect of a nationwide merit-based teacher-hiring system, which replaced experienced teachers with high-performing new teachers. The new teachers could choose where they would go, replacing old teachers.

From what I (read: me asking Claude questions) could tell, the policy did not in any way evaluate the teachers being replaced, or attempt to replace bad teachers rather than good teachers. The new teachers decided where to go based on what they wanted. So effectively, they were replacing either random teachers, or the teachers with more desirable assignments.

Thus, what we find here is that when we replace random existing teachers en masse with new teachers, and do so without using local knowledge and relying mostly on test scores (see Seeing Like a State) the reduction in experience and non-measured qualities overwhelmed the new teachers scoring higher on the tests.

The study goes too far when it suggests that test scores are uncorrelated with teacher quality. I don’t care what studies show here, that doesn’t make sense. But it can be one factor of many, and relying on it too much can still be actively worse than the previously used methods, as can sticking teachers into new locations they’re not familiar with, as can lack of overall experience, all at once.

If you want to do a reform like this, it has to go hand in hand with firing the bad teachers rather than random teachers, or you’re going to at least be in for a very tough transition.

It is important to realize that teachers are sometimes very wrong about basic things, and sometimes when you point this out they dig in. It is remarkable the extent to which some people refuse to believe this, and tell people that they are lying or remembering wrong.

from r/NoStupidQuestions: My son’s third grade teacher taught my son that 1 divided by O is 0. I wrote her an email to tell her that it is not 0. She then doubled down and cc’ed the principal. The principal responded saying the teacher is correct… What do I do now?

Tbh, I’m mildly infuriated but I’m wondering if I’m just overreacting? Should I just stop fighting this battle?

Andrew Hoyer: Ask them to enter 1 / 0 into a calculator and report back.

Andrew Rettek: People say this is fake, but as a high school senior I had two teachers and my principal tell me that 22/7 was irrational.

Magor: Well, pi is irrational. So every fraction with numerators and denominators that are integers is rational except for the one that’s pi.

Andrew Rettek: This was their reasoning, yes. My principal literally told me that he thought that 22/7 was the only non repeating fraction.

Elizabeth van Nostrand: One year I worked as assistant at summer school for 3rd graders. The teacher said echolocation worked because water was made of electricity, and columbus was financed by the wife of King James of Spain.

Is this a case for or against formal education? Either way, it is wise.

At any given level of education, literacy rates have fallen dramatically, despite overall literacy rates remaining unchanged. Simpson’s Paradox! But as Alex Tabarrok points out, also a scathing indictment of the educational system, pointing to both the signaling model of education and also highly expensive inflation in that signal.

Schools in many places, including Palo Alto and Alameda, increasingly refuse to allow math acceleration. They flat out don’t let kids learn math at any reasonable pace, and this is allowed to continue in areas with some of the brightest student pools around. I wouldn’t mind too much if schools simply taught other subjects to the kids instead, it’s not like being way ahead in math is ultimately all that valuable and you can learn pretty easily on the computer anyway, but they’re flat out wasting hours a week of the kid’s time.

Andrew Bunner: Our district is as Niels describes. Our daughter got in trouble for working on her outside-school advanced math during class even though she finished the worksheet they were assigned.

Neils Hoven: The audacity of a student! To try to learn something while in school.

Benjamin Riley (Former deputy attorney general of California, founder of ‘Deans for Impact,’ self-described ‘influential voice in education’): It’s so weird this keeps happening to the children of the Tech Bro community. Will no one speak for them?

Niels Hoven: This is the former deputy attorney general of California and an influential voice in education, saying that if your child is stuck doing work below their ability, then you must be a Tech Bro and your child’s learning needs don’t matter.

Gallabytes: this happened *to me*. my parents are not remotely tech bros. they tried their best, put me in schools they felt were good, and those schools thought that the best way to enrich my math education was to make me teach the other kids. this WILL NOT HAPPEN to my children.

There are very few issues I’d emigrate over. mandatory public schooling is one of them, and things like this are why.

Mason: To understand tall poppy syndrome you have to fully accept that yes, they want your children cut down to size as well.

They do not feel that they have to hide this because they do not think it’s a bad thing. They think this is prosocial.

I suppose we now know what impact those deans want to have. Their issue is education. They are against it.

Niels Hoven has other examples as well, such as this one from Justin Baeder, a former principal now training other principals. Or this from his own experience, in response to Baeder asking “what would be the point?”

Niels Hoven: It’s fascinating to see “education thoughtleaders” who are not only unable to imagine the benefits of supporting high-achieving kids, they’re unable to imagine a world where it’s even possible!

I went to public school and took AP Calculus in 8th grade. For my entire school career, I was in group classes with kids no more than 2 years older than me, with the exception of 3rd-6th grade when I would do an hour of independent study during math class.

Every day when my 4th grader comes home, he asks how my conversations with his school are going because he’s tired of being taught material he already knows.

Don’t tell me that kids don’t want to be challenged, and don’t tell me that it’s impossible for us to do so.

But yeah, Justin Baeder can do so much better.

Justin Baeder: The academic acceleration maximalists are honestly worse than the sports dads living vicariously through their kids and making them hate the sport.

Yes, you probably CAN push your kid to do 10th grade math in upper elementary school. But…why?

Of course, if you have a true prodigy and they want to go all in on something, go for it. Just recognize that you are choosing a very difficult path for your child and yourself. This is not normal or healthy parenting, and doesn’t lead anywhere your kid will want to go.

How dare you actually attempt to have your kid actually learn things? Just flat out.

But it gets even better than that, wait for it…

Justin Baeder: Let’s say your kid reads many years above grade level, as mine do and always have.

Guess what—that just means they run out of books to read faster than everyone else!

What’s the goal here? How does it benefit the child to pay $$$ to push them even farther out?

That’s right. You need to be careful. They’ll run out of books!

That’s why you need to smuggle them in.

Pamela Hobart: just another underappreciated yet tremendously brave teacher protecting an uppity 5yo from running out of books here in South Austin, what a relief.

Quoted Post: Kindergarten parents: If your child could read entering Kindergarten, are they reading in class yet?

We’ve been pretty disappointed and are curious if it is the teacher or public school.

At the beginning of the year our daughter was excited to learn but now she says she hates to read and do math. She asked the teacher to read harder books and was told “no” – this was from her teacher and her teacher justified it by saying she doesn’t know if she has comprehension yet (she does).

My daughter confirmed she read a lot in preschool and has only read once in Kindergarten (when she brought her own books from home) in school. My daughter says she doesn’t want to bring books from home anymore or read at home because her teacher hates reading. We are worried to make a big fuss because the teacher told us our daughter should be in GT and we don’t want to jeopardize that if we just have a bad teacher this year but we can’t see our daughter continue to hate learning, when she used to enjoy it.

She also just got settled with friends. And if it matters we are seeing problems in math too where the teacher is working on counting to 10 still but my daughter can add/subtract 100+ and knows some multiplication tables.

Foxyavelli: It’s somehow rare kids are being held back from learning but literally everyone who knows a smart kid in school or was that kid has an anecdote.

Faded Magnet: This happens a lot, and it’s not new. Similar happened to me as a kid, because I arrived at school already reading. I just read what I wanted at home and played along at school.

David Hines: “why are you homeschooling, David?” WELL —

Ian Miller: I tell my sister we need bad teachers because there aren’t enough good ones to meet the necessary demand. But the current crop of bad ones seem determined to prove me wrong.

How should we think about solutions that only help high achievers?

We should think of them as highly valuable. Instead, we see the opposite.

Niels Hoven: This article is typical of the toxic attitudes toward high achieving kids.

High achieving students are seen as “the kids who need it the least” as though they’re some kind of second-class citizen. If they learn quickly, it isn’t a success, it’s a problem to be solved.

So yes: A huge portion of those tasked with educating students is working to actively sabotage our best and brightest, and often the other kids too, thinking this is good and also gaslighting everyone involved about the whole process.

Kelsey Piper: Our schools are failing children. Some parents, mostly the rich ones, have the time and confidence to speak out about it. Then people go “oh it’s a whiny privileged people problem”. No. Your schools are also failing the children whose parents don’t know how to speak out.

Not that it’d be acceptable to deny kids a good education because their parents are whiny privileged people! That’d be a cruel and evil thing to do! But in fact what we’re doing is denying all kids a good education and then looking who objects.

And then going “oh it’s only the rich people who object so it’s only their kids who are being harmed so it’s fine”, which is just evil on so many different levels I can’t quite fathom it.

Entertainingly many of these same people hate private schools on the grounds that it’s bad when privileged parents opt out instead of advocating to make the schools better. damned if you do, damned if you don’t.ta

Some places used to have standards, including standards for admission, like Thomas Jefferson High School. Then they killed many such places, so RIP, with national merit semifinalists down 50% in a year despite increased class sizes. And the entire county went from 264 semifinal candidates to 191, showing that this is a real loss.

A lawsuit was allowed to go forward challenging NYC’s gifted programs as ‘segregation,’ including targeting Stuyvesant High School and Bronx Science. It asserts that testing for academic ability is ‘racial’ and discriminatory. The admission tests in question are very similar to the SAT. The whole thing is madness and an attempt at civilizational suicide. If there is a law that makes that kind of admissions test illegal, it is incompatible with civilization, and the law must be repealed.

The latest formerly exceptional school we have learned was intentionally destroyed in the name of ‘equity’ comes from Philadelphia. You see, it’s important not to ‘disadvantage’ some students, so we have to ensure we don’t accidentally give others an education, or admit more talented students over less talented ones. Same old story. Out with the old motto, ‘dare to be excellent.’ And that was for all practical purposes the end of Masterman.

The obvious answer is, then only give such programs to the high achievers. Having looked at the details here, it’s actually a relatively non-toxic version of the concern, noting that if 95% of students fail to benefit from or use such programs, then they’re not a solution for that 95%. Which would for now make them not a general solution.

And yes, that’s disappointing, although I expect rapid improvements over time. Also disappointing is to call such kids ‘those who need it the least’ as if the goal of mathematics education was to hit some minimum bar and then stop. But this article seems to stop short of making the case many ‘equity’ advocates actually make and even put into practice, that Niels is warning about here, which is to claim that the success of the best students is actively a problem to be fixed.

Ozy Brennan: a question for people concerned with educational equity: if schools aren’t flexible enough to serve children who are multiple grade levels ahead, how well do they serve children who are multiple grade levels behind? (badly. it’s badly)

I also agree, for these reasons and also for others including cultural ones, that parents should have a right to see the curricula that is being imposed by force upon their children in a public school, so they know what and how their children are learning. And that a school or teacher refusing to share this information, or the state supreme court saying you don’t get to see it is a five alarm fire. I don’t see how someone can say ‘no this is a secret, you have no right to that, and send your kids to school or we’re calling the cops’ and not notice the skulls on their uniforms.

The ultimate proof that school is not about learning is that we know school starts too early for teenagers to properly sleep and thus be ready to learn, we’ve known forever, and it is impossible to fix this.

Lomez: The dread of school could be mitigated by 75 percent by simply letting children sleep in. Teenagers need significantly more sleep; without adequate amounts, they can become depressed and irritable. When I am education czar, the children will get their sleep.

Danielle Fong: My co-founder presented a study showing that teenagers learn better if they can sleep in a little more. The school responded with, “Well, we can’t adjust it now; we have a contract with the bus drivers.”

Oh, so the school is for the benefit of the bus drivers?

Much like the port is for the benefit of the longshoremen and the polity is for the benefit of politicians, eh?

Relatedly, morning classes fail spectacularly.

Abstract: Using a natural experiment which randomized class times to students, this study reveals that enrolling in early morning classes lowers students’ course grades and the likelihood of future STEM course enrollment. There is a 79% reduction in pursuing the corresponding major and a 26% rise in choosing a lower-earning major, predominantly influenced by early morning STEM classes. To understand the mechanism, I conducted a survey of undergraduate students enrolled in an introductory course, some of whom were assigned to a 7: 30 AM section. I find evidence of a decrease in human capital accumulation and learning quality for early morning sections.

Wait, a 7: 30 AM section? What fresh hell is that? When I was in college I did sign up intentionally for 9: 00 AM classes and given my sleep schedule that turned out fine, but the other kids clearly didn’t love it. A 7: 30 AM start time is nuts, such a thing should not exist, we need to amend the Geneva Conventions.

Still, the reduction seems extreme. 79% reduction in further classes is quite a lot if this was indeed a randomized trial. I presume some of it was the cultivation of hatred and aversion rather than pure lack of human capital. At this level, the classes at that hour are effectively non-functional. How can those involved not notice this? Why would anyone ever need (or want) to schedule a class that early? How many points are these kids attempting to take?

Legal battles continue (WSJ) over whether, if you decide to have charter schools at all, also allowing religious charter schools is then mandatory or forbidden. There does not appear to be middle ground. One of these violates the first amendment, the other does not, but it is not clear which is which. If it was mandatory, in some places charter schools would get a lot more support, and in other places they would get a lot less.

I do not think the government should be discriminating here, and imposing an effectively very large tax on those who want their children to go to religious schools, or any other kind of school, provided everyone has a local non-religious public school available. And frankly, a lot of the ‘non-religious’ public schools are effectively rather (non-traditionally, de facto) religious and have no intention of knocking it off, giving me even less sympathy.

Then there’s the step beyond that, those who appose privately funded private schools. People being mad that some pay for private school while also paying for everyone’s public school will never actually stop being weird to me, as will people who think this is super commonly done by people in the upper middle class purely for quality reasons.

Quinn: there’s this class of upper-middle/upper class urban yuppie that makes a big stink out of sending their kids to “public school” and man… I hate them. Yeah, your kid will go to your decent local K-5 and bolt when shit gets real, just like every aspirational underserved family.

Matt Bruenig: Reminder when approaching this discourse that 90% of children attend public schools, most of the rest attend so-so religious schools.

If ‘shit gets real’ in my local school, and I am being underserved, I do not know what that means, but it does not sound like a time to not be bolting? Yet most people do not have that option. Also, yes, it is very strange that the same person also thinks this:

Quinn: I want to see the urban public education system completely broken down and rebuilt from the bottom up. I do not hate that it exists; I hate how it is.

Again, seems like bolting conditions to me. If you are expecting parents to sacrifice their children on the alter of public pressure to improve failing schools, please speak directly into this microphone.

Tough but fair.

Politico: School choice programs have been wildly successful under DeSantis. Now public schools might close.

Chris Freiman: Netflix has been wildly successful. Now Blockbuster locations might close.

Politico does point to some concerns. If standard schools are losing interest, why then destroy the schools that are exceptional, as many places are somehow doing? That seems rather perverse.

Hopefully the Montessori school could reconstitute itself, but the ‘vote with your feet’ plan only works if you close the schools that lose feet, not the ones that keep them.

Andrew Atterbury: One proposal aiming to turn a popular Fort Lauderdale magnet school that focuses on the Montessori teaching method into a neighborhood school brought a crowd nearing 200 people in opposition at a recent town hall. There, dozens of audience members, a sea of blue “VSY’’ shirts representing Virginia Shuman Young elementary, contended the plan would cause an unnecessary “disruption” for a top-rated school.

“If your product is better, you’ll be fine. The problem is, they are a relic of the past — a monopolized system where you have one option,” Chris Moya, a Florida lobbyist representing charter schools and the state’s top voucher administering organization, said of traditional public schools. “And when parents have options, they vote with their feet.”

The data cited in Politico says that the decline in enrollment due to increased homeschooling is modestly bigger than the increase in private school attendance, some of whom are getting scholarships to do it. Home school as always has principle-agent issues where you worry if the education is happening, if you do not trust parents to want to educate their children.

But yes, if you do not zero out the very high social cost of regular schooling, home schools start to look a lot better. If the city gave us a budget equal to what it costs them to have our kids in schools, I would 100% be putting together a vastly better homeschooling program with that money.

Always remember it could be so much worse.

Bryne Hobart: Discussions about school vouchers, homeschooling, etc. make me feel grateful that it’s legal for us to cook for our kids, even though neither my wife nor I went to culinary school. Things could be very different.

Microschools are an obviously great idea. The cost of private school is far in excess of the costs of hiring a teacher, renting a space and paying for plausible supply and other costs. You get the socialization benefits of school, and the flexibility and customization to not do the awful parts, and as a society we get to try different stuff.

Also, home schooling and stay-at-home parent are expensive, and now you can spread that cost around along with its benefits.

Getting rid of trivial inconveniences can help quite a lot in such cases. Instead of having to go through rezoning, the school will often find space it can use for free.

Matt Bateman: Microschools are an extremely good and natural format for schooling and the only reason they aren’t much more common is because of unnatural blockers.

“Hey maybe we should pool our children and resources around the best and most willing educator in our community” is an obvious and ancient approach to organizing schooling and it’s quite strange that we today have managed to greatly disincentivize it

Politico: Florida Republicans, led by Gov. Ron DeSantis, want to let tiny private schools open in libraries, movie theaters, churches and other spaces where they can fit makeshift classrooms.

Florida’s policy change appears small; it allows private schools to use existing space at places like movie theaters and churches without having to go through local governments for approval.

But it could have a dramatic impact. This shift gives these private schools access to thousands of buildings, opening the door for new education options to emerge without them having to endure potentially heavy rezoning costs.

Primer, a company poised to act as a support system for such schools, is backed by Sam Altman. The man’s past investments often have excellent taste and speak well of his values. I’d be curious what he has invested in this year, after the events of November.

Scientific American used to be a magazine my family subscribed to that contained cool articles about science. Now it is… something else.

The latest example of this is Scientific American’s hit piece on home schooling. Eric Hoel has a thread and a post detailing the situation. The part about educational results is misleading but reasonable. Then they start in on accusations of ‘abuse.’

That is the part where, after using a child that was not home schooled as justification for a moral panic, they cite a 36% rate of homeschooled children being reported for alleged abuse to show how horrible it is.

Except…

Well, it turns out researchers have an answer to that question. Here’s from a 2017 paper, “Lifetime Prevalence of Investigating Child Maltreatment Among US Children:”

We estimate that 37.4% of all children experience a child protective services investigation by age 18 years.

As Hoel notes, focusing on withdraws from school only, and other details, suggest that the base rate of abuse for home school is potentially substantially below normal. At worst, it is normal.

The good argument against home school is it requires a large investment of time and resources by the parents, so most families cannot afford to do it. Obviously, if you can get your child consistent 1-on-1 (or e.g. 4-on-1) attention and a customized path of study then that’s great, and will only get better now that AI tools are available.

Instead, the actual thesis of many against homeschooling, when they’re not making up things like the claims earlier in this section, is flat out that parents are not qualified to teach their children. And that those who claim that they could teach their own children things like how to read or write or do arithmetic are therefore ‘big mad’ and also presumably flying in the face of education and The Science.

Waitman Beorn: The Home Schooling Crowd is big mad. lol But also, how insulting is it to teachers who literally train specifically to teach kids of a certain age a specific subject that Ashton and his trad wife think they can do it just as well in the playroom of their log cabin mansion?

Charles Rense: I read the replies, and they were for the most part polite and reasonable in their disagreement. The only one who’s “big mad” is you.

Polimath: How insulting to the academic institutions is it that parents with little or no training end up educating their kids better than the teachers who literally train specifically to teach kids?

Austin Allred: Anti-homeschooling folks often have expectations of school teacher qualifications that are just wildly out of touch with reality.

Jake McCoy: Dr. Waitman admitting he couldn’t teach 2nd grade math is not a great look for him.

Prince Vogelfrei: People say smug shit like this while not doing the tiniest bit of research on homeschooling outcomes which beat public schooling in every standardized test category. California makes everyone do tests, we have the data. But what does the truth matter when superiority is to be had.

Most people do not care about results, they care about process – particularly a process which ensures no one can really be blamed and avoid the messiness that ensues

It is beyond absurd to think that an average teacher, with a class of 24 kids, couldn’t be outperformed by a competent parent focusing purely on their own child. The idea that if you don’t specifically have an ‘education degree’ that you can’t teach things is to defy all of human experience and existence. Completely crazy. And yet.

Austen Allred: The conventional view any time you dare to suggest there might be a more optimal way to learn than the existing school system.

I love that it’s a he that ends up on this hypothetical stripper pole at 16.

Kelsey Piper answers questions about her private tiny home school. Parents typically teach a weekly class, student/teacher ratio is 4:1 to 6:1, full price is $1200/month/child. All reports I’ve heard are quite good, but of course talent involved is off the charts.

Comparing the Bryan Caplan home school method to Robinson’s similar one, with critique of the general framework and focus. Both focus on not helping the student, letting them work things out, with Robinson being full on ‘the student must never be helped with any problem.’

They assigned kids two hours of math a day. I am confused why that is needed, if you train in math reasonably less than half of that should be plenty. I get that history and music are secondary priorities, but cutting them out entirely seems like a mistake, although honestly art can go. I also don’t see how most children could focus like that. I know mine would have no hope no matter how hard I tried. In general, why so much time in a chair doing school-style work? I don’t understand how that helps.

Of course all of it is obsolete now. If you have access to Gemini Pro 1.5 and Claude Opus, all previous learning techniques are going to look dumb.

The constant refrain I hear is ‘but what about socialization?’ Which seems crazy to me, and I love this way of putting it.

Violeta: Re: the socialization issue with homeschooling

I asked my 16yo daughter who went back to high-school this year “do you wanna continue next year?”

“I don’t think I’m ready for the isolation of sitting 6h with people only of my exact age and an adult speaking at us for 90% of the time, I need to socialize more.”

There are far better ways to get socialization. What socialization you do get in school, from what I can tell, is by default horribly warped in deeply unhealthy ways. Most of the value is essentially ‘you might make a friend at all, and then interact with them outside of school in your few hours of freedom.’ There are better ways to find friends.

Aella summarizes her home school experience, listing pros and cons of the type she experienced. The cons are that parents control what you learn and who you see, and your social skills and knowledge base are different from other kids. The pros are you don’t waste massive amounts of time instead learning at your own pace, you don’t get stratified by age and you dodge a lot of toxic dynamics in normal schools.

Her description of her three months in normal high school instruction, where everything is checking off a box and no one actually cares, tells you that yes it can be otherwise, we should be horrified by our defaults. If your soul has not yet been crushed and you show up most of the way through the process, the soul crushing engine becomes impossible to miss.

If you are a parent, presumably ‘choose what to teach’ is pro rather than a con, and you will choose something reasonable. So the only cons are having quirky socialization touchstones rather than the insane ones we get in primary and high school, which all mostly gets overridden anyway? Yeah, choice seems very clear if everyone involved can handle and invest in the process.

The exact opposite method is illustrated in this video, the concept of never making a child do anything they do not choose to do on their own. As several people here note, this is the ‘homeschool with no effort by doing actual nothing’ method, and by default it is absolutely be an excuse for negligence. It can also be done right, via noticing what children actually want and ensuring they find it and helping steer them, which requires work as active as other methods.

When can you teach children about law and procedure and proof? Tracing Woodgrains suggests about 8, Kelsey Piper thinks similarly.

Michael Gibson asks a good question, but the opposite might be even better?

Michael Gibson: Why do kids hate school? If you don’t have an answer to that question then you’re not even in the conversation, let alone the debate.

Rebel Educator: The tragedy inside America’s K-12 schools.

Here’s another question. Why do kids love school?

Notice that teachers are saying that 95% (!) of their kids love Kindergarten (I can’t imagine they’re paying close attention, given my anecdata and this very different poll even if its sample is biased, but perhaps normies be norming), they still believe 74% love fourth grade, and even at the trough 37% are supposedly loving Grade 9.

If you force kids into a fixed location and subject them to strict control and force them to work at arbitrary stuff for roughly half of waking hours, these would be very good rates of loving the results, if the teachers are describing the kids remotely accurately. Consider that if you ask people if they ‘love’ their job, that’s going to score rather lower. We’re doing some things very wrong, but we must also be doing some things very right.

In relative terms this reaction seems roughly right? You start out with ‘hang out with other kids and mostly do fun things,’ which plausibly kids do mostly enjoy, then they turn it into progressively more sitting still for lectures and progressively more homework and busywork and wear you down for years. Then as high school progresses you start to get a bit of flexibility back and the world lets you do things like walk on your own or select classes or do actual work, so things improve a bit.

Remember, it could be so, so much worse.

Richard Hanania: In South Korea, 84% of five year-olds and 36% of *two year-oldsattend private tutoring schools. What causes a culture to go this far off the rails? This is genuinely horrifying.

Again, not for every child all the time, even in a ‘normal’ school.

But for many children, it mostly makes them miserable while wasting their time.

And I’d boldly claim that this is not good.

And I disagree with Tracing Woods in that actually they can articulate this pretty damn well most of the time.

Tracing Woods: I hated school starting in first grade. I wanted to go faster, wanted more interesting work, wanted something better. I kept wanting this and kept leaping at any available alternative through twelfth grade. Kids can’t fully articulate their desires. But they know.

Kelsey Piper: I’m not going to say “kids are 100% accurate at identifying the best learning environment for them”. But they will absolutely tell you “I hate school” if they hate school. They will tell you by begging you to quit your job and homeschool them, by telling you it’s okay if that means the family ends up homeless, we can set up a tent in the lot on the corner. They will tell you by pretending to be sick, and by really being sick.

If they love their school, they tell you that too. They will tell you by begging you to take them in to their school on weekends. They’ll spend Christmas break complaining that school isn’t in session. They’ll say to you thoughtfully ‘I do really love my summer camp, but it makes me sad to be missing out on school’.

If you’ve decided your five or six year old is too stupid to be worth listening to, you may miss the signs they’re in a really bad situation that is harming them a lot – and you’ll definitely be teaching them that their education is not something in which they are active participants, not something where their perspective is valued, not something where their experiences even matter.

I also hear a lot of people say ‘if you let them choose, won’t they just choose whatever school is easiest and has the most toys?”. No. They won’t. One family at our microschool literally had their child do a side by side comparison by attending public school and the microschool for a period of time and then choosing where they wanted to go. The child loved the amenities that the public school offered – it had way more funding! It was big enough to have a soccer team!

But they were desperately bored. They said that everything the teacher said, they already knew. They spent all day being told to be quiet while the teacher said boring things. And they didn’t want that.

Almost everyone was supportive, with many similar stories. Then there was one person who spoke up to say that kids saying they are miserable is fine, actually.

Ed Real (Teacher): Vomitous drama queen tripe. In Kelsey’s fantasy world, people are secretly wondering “why isn’t my kid begging for me to homeschool them? What’s wrong with me?”

Kelsey Piper: I think you may have misread. I was saying that children do beg their parents to homeschool them sometimes. If your children aren’t, that’s a good thing!

Ed Real: Oh, no, I understand what you’re saying and it’s designed to get parents to worry if their kids aren’t soooooooooo engaged with their school life that they’re DEMANDING more! In fact, a kid begging for homeschool or private school or whatever needs to be squelched routinely.

Kelsey Piper: Do you think that kids are never miserable in their school environment and are only pretending to desperately seek alternatives, or do you think that they are miserable but that the correct way for parents to respond when their children are miserable is ‘squelching routinely’?

EdReal: I think your inability to distinguish between misery and a kid whining that he’s miserable is a very big part of your delusion. Absent criminal neglect or abuse, “miserable” is not the word to use about a child’s state of mind. Not seriously, anyway.

Especially since you’re claiming these kids are “miserable” for academic reasons. I mean, social reasons, bullying, sure. But academic? Please.

And yes, I’m saying you are positing such children to make other parents envious.

Scott Alexander: I was miserable at school and begged my parents to home school me. I still endorse this 30 years later, and my parents (who refused at the time) in retrospect agree. I can’t figure out if you’re denying my existence or saying that because I was a child my feelings didn’t matter.

Ed Real: Neither. I am saying that “miserable” is not an accurate description of your state of mind. You were a bright kid who felt you could do better. Oh, well. Pretty obvious you didn’t suffer career-wise.

Keller Scholl: It is always striking to me that one of the most common nightmares is being back in school, under the control of people like this poster, and this is not seen as a failure of schools.

Mike Blume: Teachers on [Twitter] doing a fucking fantastic job of making me want to entrust my children to their institutions.

Rohit: People forget their own schooling, I think. Things I did to show school was boring:

  1. Repeatedly said school was boring.

  2. Skipped all classes.

  3. Created a pro and con list on why I should spend all my time in the library.

  4. Read advanced textbooks for fun.

Not taking children seriously is wrong.

I think that if a child tells you they are miserable at school, chances are they are miserable at school. And yes, of course I speak from experience. Do people doubt that being constantly bored, for hours every day, is insufficient?

As in:

In class I’d pass the time

Drawing a slash for every time the second hand went by

A group of five

Done twelve times was a minute

But

Shameika said I had potential

– Fiona Apple, Shameika

I mean, yes, that is pretty miserable. Stop pretending it isn’t. Or that it doesn’t matter when a particular teacher is very much not Shameika, so long as you ‘turn out okay.’

There are plenty of other reasons that school can become a five alarm fire you need to get away from (e.g. Fiona Apple also notes ‘I wasn’t afraid of the bullies and that just made the bullies worse.’) But boredom and wasted time is enough.

You can do so much more, and we should treat failure to excel where it was possible similarly to how we (should and used to but increasingly also don’t) treat failure to stay at grade level for average students.

Daniel Buck: We need to quit wasting the time of gifted students and make it easier for them skip grades.

How many spend their days twiddling their thumbs after finishing the days work in minutes, waiting for their classmates? Or worse, getting conscripted to be the teacher’s errand runner?

I actually think being the teacher’s assistant is far better than thumb twirling, especially if the thing you assist with is the actual teaching. Still not ideal.

Matt Bateman: People are so used to talking about minimum acceptable outcomes in education that they truly have no idea how high-variance educational outcomes can and should be.

The top quartile of students can skip grades. The top 2 percent of students can do an entire multiyear curriculum in *weeks*.

As Nuno Sempere says, there are obvious problems with ‘kids decide when they get to drop out of regular school.’ At minimum, there need to be highly credible costly signals sent, rather than simply expressing a preference. Kids often have to be told to do things they don’t want to do. And you want a credible signal of how much they don’t want to be there, not one designed to get them what they want.

I have a very strong commitment, that if this kind of misery around school appears and is sustained, then that is that. Especially if they successfully locate and point out this statement.

Democracy mostly works, to the extent it works, because when things are truly terrible, people get mad and then they Throw the Bums Out. Like the children miserable at school, we do not know what we need, but we know when conditions are miserable and it is time for a change.

Also it is insane how many people use the argument Kelsey Piper talks about below, and do so with a straight face. Indeed the comments contain many people condemning Kelsey Piper as bad for not sacrificing her children on some symbolic alter.

Kelsey Piper: I also get really irritated by “you should send your kids to bad public schools because people like you doing that is what makes them into good public schools”. I’m willing to make a lot of sacrifices for my community. Wronging my kids isn’t one of them.

I am happy to donate to local classrooms in need of supplies (I do make those donations). I am happy to volunteer in local classrooms if they need me. I am not happy to condemn my kids to unhappiness, and I frankly don’t think I have the right to do so.

They deserve some input into where they spend 40 hours a week and they want it to be in a safe environment with challenging academic work and individualized curriculum and support in pursuing their ambitions.

And again.

Kelsey Piper: The weirdest and most horrifying thing about the school choice discourse was the apparently universal assumption, on left and right, that the only thing that matters about schools is student population. On the left the takeaway was that by removing a child from a school you wronged the school; on the right the takeaway was that there is no hope for general improvements in education, just the hope that you can be better than other people at securing a place for your children in the schools with “high quality” children.

A lot of the families I know of that took their kids out of a local public school did so because their child wasn’t learning to read. Their child wasn’t learning to read because they needed phonics-based reading education and the school did not offer it. Now it was third grade and the child was badly behind, fed up with the whole concept of reading, had lots of bad habits around bluffing and faking it, and felt deeply ashamed of themselves. That family would have been much much better served by a school with the identical student body, but a better reading instruction program.

I talked recently to another parent whose school had a problem with parents fleeing for private schools. The principal of the school forbade students from doing ahead-of-grade-level work, including checking out ahead-of-grade-level books from the library. The problem wasn’t the student body. The problem was this rule.

Interruption to highlight that yes this is a thing. There are schools where they are very strict about not allowing students to get more of an education than they are supposed to get. No books that are too advanced. It is a crime against humanity, and I mean that.

Kelsey Piper: When I was in third grade at a public school, the teacher called up my mom to try to tell her that I would not be allowed to take advanced math, because the teacher thought it wasn’t healthy for girls to take advanced math. My mom objected and I got into advanced math, but I had a miserable year under that teacher, who kept me inside on detention every day on various pretexts (I’d never gotten in trouble before or since). The classmates were not the problem. The problem was the teacher.

When I was in tenth grade, the school inexplicably assigned a person who didn’t know Calculus to teach the Calculus class. He identified the smartest boy in the class on the first day and told that boy to teach us all. He did his best.

Another reason kids frequently struggle at school is because the school starts at 8am. Those kids would thrive at a school that started at 10am. Their parents often wish they had that option, but they don’t.

Interruption number two: Oh my yes, and this effect can be rather large.

Kelsey Piper: I understand that there’s a lot of research to the effect that peer effects on education are much more reproducible than teacher effects on education. And certainly ‘who attends the school’ predicts test scores more strongly than ‘are the teachers any good’. But I think somehow we have jumped from that to a deranged insistence that the only thing that can be good or bad about a school is the student body, which carries implicitly an insistence that schooling is fundamentally zero-sum, that there are no wins that do not come at someone else’s expense, that to desire your child be happy is to desire someone else’s child suffer.

When I say a school is bad, I mean ‘it does not teach reading’. I mean ‘it does not allow students to work ahead at their own pace’. I mean ‘the teacher was hostile to my child’. I mean ‘the teacher was sexist’ or ‘the teacher was incompetent’ or ‘the teacher was not sober’ or ‘the teacher was not familiar with the material’. Bullying and unsafety are ways a school can be bad for kids, but not only is it not the only way, in the cases I’ve run into it’s usually not even in the top three reasons why a child is miserable at school.

When I say a school is good, I mean that kids spend their time doing work that they’re bought in on, work that matters to them, work they care about, work that’s challenging and interesting. I mean that they want to be there. I mean that the adults who teach and mentor and support them are trustworthy and trusted.

Under the worldview where all we can do is shuffle student bodies, school choice is suspect, probably just another way for some people to profit at the expense of others. But under the worldview where schools vary in quality and in which traits they possess, school choice (if implemented justly) is obviously a good idea. It’s a good idea in two ways. The first is a form of accountability which isn’t about test scores. Schools where the teachers are miserable bullies will lose students to other schools that do better at hiring. Schools that don’t serve their students will lose out to ones that do.

The second advantage is that children are different from each other! Some want to start at 8am because they drive their parents nuts by being up since 5 anyway. Some need to start at 8am for their job. But some work night shifts or have late risers and job flexibility and benefit from a late start. Some kids do well in orderly quiet classrooms; some do well with hubbub and flexibility. Some kids care a lot if the school allows them to work ahead, and some don’t. School choice allows people to self-sort around what works for their child.

It’s obviously not a panacea. We know that because we’ve had school choice in various forms for a while now and I observe a distinct lack of panacea around here. Incentives to solve education only get you so far if no one knows how to solve education. The well-intentioned focus on testing introduced the most painful costly clear-cut Goodharting I’ve seen in any industry. And any system that involves parents taking action will benefit the kids with active and involved parents, and practically all processes benefit the wealthy because that’s in a very fundamental sense what wealth means.

But once you acknowledge that schools can be good or bad because of policies and teachers and curriculums, and that schools can be different in ways that make them a better or worse fit for a child, and that we’re not playing some relentlessly depressing zero-sum game where every benefit for any child is extracted from some other child, I think the question becomes “what would a good policy regime here look like?”.

One thing that I am very grateful about California is that you can just start your own school, pretty straightforwardly. There are no state fees; the legal requirements aren’t even that onerous. You and a few of your friends can get together and see if you can build something that’s good for your kids, and if it is, you can open it up to more kids. This does not just reshuffle the kids. It makes it possible to do better. And when you have an unsolved problem, like how to provide just, high quality education to every child everywhere, it’s really valuable to open up the possibility of inventing and iterating and finding something better.

And – if a child is miserable, their misery matters. If your child is miserable, you need to help them. Even if the studies show they’ll be fine as an adult, this is a human being, over whom you have power, to whom you have duties, and they do not only matter for their future trajectory. http://GreatSchools.com will not tell you whether your child’s school is good or bad for them, but your child will. Please listen.

Sarah Constantin: “surely nobody would criticize Kelsey for putting a ton of work into founding a goddamn school to make sure her kids got a good education, that’s like motherhood and apple pie”

oh no.

It is indeed literally motherhood, and a central part of it. And yet.

Many times, in many ways, they make it hell. On purpose.

Then they justify that because you need to be ready for more hell, and say that overrides everything else in life.

Wes: Exhibit A in why I hate school. This is from Roxie’s preschool. They don’t let the kids inside until 9am, so if they show up early, kids will often play on the playground right next to the entrance. This is now banned. The reason is “the morning transition time is very important in order for the students to begin their day ready to learn.”

This is the petty tyranny of school administrators. They have the authority to make rules, so they do whatever is most convenient for them, and always default to “don’t let the kids have any fun.” Kids enjoying themselves is seen as a threat to the educational environment. IN PRE SCHOOL. It just gets worse as the kids get older. It’s not just the kids who associating learning with being bored and uninterested – it’s the adult too. So apparently they need a ten minute “transition time” to stop having fun and get ready to go be bored in class.

Outdoor playtime is now referred to as “gross motor time” because kids can’t just play. It has to have some pedagogical purpose.

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Norovirus vaccine hints at defusing explosive stomach bug in early trial


Phase I study showed vaccine was safe and spurred immune responses in older people.

An electron micrograph of norovirus. Credit: Getty| BSIP

In an early clinical trial, an experimental norovirus vaccine given as a pill produced defensive responses exactly where it counts—in the saliva of older people most vulnerable to the explosive stomach bug.

The results, published this week in Science Translational Medicine, are another step in the long effort to thwart the gruesome germ, which finds a way to violently hollow out innards wherever people go—from restaurants to natural wonders and even the high seas. It’s a robust, extremely infectious virus that spreads via the nauseating fecal-oral route. Infected people spew billions of virus particles in their vomit and diarrhea, and shedding can last weeks. The particles aren’t easily killed by hand sanitizers and can linger on surfaces for up to two weeks. Exposure to as few as 10 virus particles can spark an infection. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, norovirus causes an average of between 19 and 21 million cases of acute gastroenteritis in the US every year, leading to 109,000 hospitalizations and 900 deaths. This racks up an economic burden estimated to be $2 billion to $10.6 billion.

Vaccine design

For most, the gut-busting bug is miserable but usually over in a few days. But older people—especially those with underlying medical conditions—are vulnerable to severe outcomes. About 90 percent of people who die from a norovirus infection are people age 65 or older who live in long-term care facilities.

For this reason, researchers have aimed to design a vaccine that’s sure to be effective in older people, who typically have weaker immune responses just from the aging process. But, of course, this makes the already daunting task of developing a vaccine yet harder—and norovirus poses some specific challenges. For one, there aren’t a lot of good laboratory models and animal systems to run norovirus experiments or test candidate drugs. For example, healthy mice infected with a mouse version of norovirus don’t develop any symptoms (lucky critters). Then there’s the fact that norovirus isn’t one virus; it’s many. There are 49 different genotypes of norovirus, which have been categorized into 10 “genogroups.” It’s unclear if protection against one genotype or genogroup will help protect against the others, and if so, by how much.

Currently, there are several norovirus vaccines in the works, at various stages with various designs. The one published this week is being developed by a San Francisco-based company called Vaxart and uses a proprietary oral delivery system. The pill includes a deactivated virus particle (an adenovirus), which can’t replicate in people but can deliver the genetic blueprints of two molecules into cells lining our intestines. One of the genetic blueprints it delivers tells the intestinal cells how to manufacture a protein found on the outside of norovirus particles, called VP.1. Once manufactured in the intestines, VP.1 can train the immune system to identify invading norovirus particles and attack them. The other genetic code included in the vaccine is for what’s called an “adjuvant,” which is basically a booster molecule that helps rev up immune responses.

While several other vaccines in the works are delivered by injections, producing systemic responses, the idea of the pill is to build up immune responses to norovirus directly where it invades and attacks—the mucosal lining of the digestive tract, including the mouth and intestines. There is some preliminary data suggesting that having antibodies against norovirus in saliva correlates with protection from the virus.

Good news

Vaxart has previously published Phase I trial data showing that its pill is safe and well-tolerated in healthy adults ages 18 to 49. The study, published in 2018, also indicated that the pill generated “substantial” systemic and mucosal antibodies against norovirus.

For the new study, Vaxart did a repeat Phase I trial with 65 older people—ages 55 to 80, broken into groups of 55 to 65, and 66 to 80. The participants were randomly assigned to get either a placebo (22) or a low (16), medium (16), or high (11) dose of the vaccine VXA-G1.1-NN, which targets one genotype of norovirus. Again, the vaccine was safe and well-tolerated. There were no serious side effects. The most common side effects were headache and fatigue, which were reported at about the same rates among the placebo and vaccinated groups.

Further, detailed examination of the participants’ immune responses showed not only systemic response, but responses in distant mucus membranes. In the blood, two types of antibodies (IgA and IgG) increased by several fold after vaccination compared with the placebo group. The group with the largest responses was the one that received the high dose.

A test that acts as a surrogate for neutralizing antibody responses to norovirus indicated that the antibodies spurred by the vaccine could block the virus. Additional tests found that cellular immune responses were also activated and that the systemic responses result in protection in places far from the intestines—namely the mouth and nose. Saliva tests and nasal swabs found significant jumps in secreted IgA against norovirus.

Immune responses were strongest in the first two months after vaccination and diminished over time, but some persisted for nearly seven months. When the scientists looked at differences between the two age groups (55–65 and 65–80), they didn’t see significant differences, suggesting the vaccine was equally effective in the older group.

Overall, the scientists at Vaxart concluded that the vaccine “has the potential to inhibit infection, viral shedding, and transmission.”

“Overall, VXA-G1.1-NN administration in older adults led to robust and durable immunogenicity detected both in circulation and multiple mucosal sites, an exciting outcome considering that diminished cellular and mucosal immunity are typical in older populations,” they wrote.

Not so good news

The outlook isn’t entirely rosy, though—there is some bad news. While immune responses rose in statistically significant measures during this small early-stage trial, it’s unclear if that equates to real-life protection. And there’s some good reason to be wary. In 2023, Vaxart released results of a challenge study, in which 141 brave souls (76 vaccinated and 65 given a placebo) were deliberately exposed to norovirus to see if the vaccine was protective. The results were weak: 53 placebo-group members (81.5 percent) became infected with norovirus, as determined by a PCR test looking for genetic evidence of the virus in their stool—and so did 76 vaccinated people (60 percent). That worked out to the vaccine offering only a 29 percent lower relative risk of getting infected. Looking at whether infected people developed symptoms of acute gastroenteritis, the vaccine had a protective efficacy of about 21 percent: 34 vaccinated people (48 percent) versus 37 placebo-group members (57 percent) developed symptoms.

While the study was a disappointment, Vaxart wasn’t ready to give up, arguing that the challenge study used large-dose exposures that people wouldn’t encounter in the real world.

“We use lots of copies of virus to ensure a high infection rate. In nature, 10 to 15 copies of virus is generally enough to give certain susceptible individuals disease,” James Cummings, chief medical officer at Vaxart, said in an investor call reported by Fierce Biotech at the time. “Field efficacy generally goes up, because the amount of inoculum that is causing disease that will be seen in the field is far lower than what is seen in the challenge study. My projection is that we would see an improvement in the decrease of [acute gastroenteritis] with our vaccine.”

Even a slight boost in efficacy could make the vaccine seem worthwhile. A 2012 modeling study suggested that even a vaccine with 50 percent efficacy could avert up to 2.2 million cases and save up to $2 billion over four years.

For now, we’ll have to wait to see what future trial data shows. And Vaxart’s vaccine isn’t the only one in the pipeline, nor is it the furthest along. Moderna has a norovirus vaccine in a Phase 3 trial, which is a larger study that will look at efficacy. But, while the trial is just beginning, Moderna noted in a financial update in February that the trial has been put on hold by the Food and Drug Administration due to a possible neurological side effect in one participant.

“The trial is currently on FDA clinical hold following a single adverse event report of a case of Guillain-Barré syndrome, which is currently under investigation,” Moderna reported. “The Company does not expect an impact on the study’s efficacy readout timeline as enrollment in the Northern Hemisphere has already been completed. The timing of the Phase 3 readout will be dependent on case accruals.”

Photo of Beth Mole

Beth is Ars Technica’s Senior Health Reporter. Beth has a Ph.D. in microbiology from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and attended the Science Communication program at the University of California, Santa Cruz. She specializes in covering infectious diseases, public health, and microbes.

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brother-denies-using-firmware-updates-to-brick-printers-with-third-party-ink

Brother denies using firmware updates to brick printers with third-party ink

Brother laser printers are popular recommendations for people seeking a printer with none of the nonsense. By nonsense, we mean printers suddenly bricking features, like scanning or printing, if users install third-party cartridges. Some printer firms outright block third-party toner and ink, despite customer blowback and lawsuits. Brother’s laser printers have historically worked fine with non-Brother accessories. A YouTube video posted this week, though, as well as older social media posts, claim that Brother has gone to the dark side and degraded laser printer functionality with third-party cartridges. Brother tells Ars that this isn’t true.

On March 3, YouTuber Louis Rossman posted a video saying that “Brother turns heel & becomes anti-consumer printer company.” The video, spotted by Tom’s Hardware, has 163,000 views as of this writing and seems to be based on a Reddit post from 2022. In that post, Reddit user 20Factorial said that firmware update W1.56 caused the automatic color registration feature to stop working on his Brother MFC-3750 when using third-party cartridges.

“With the colors not able to be aligned, the printer is effectively non-functional,” 20Factorial said. The Redditor went on to say that when asked, a Brother customer service agent confirmed that “the printer is non-functional without genuine toner.”

Rossman created a Wiki page breaking down the reported issues, including “printers continue to function with third-party toner but print at degraded quality unless OEM toner is installed.” He also noted that Brother printers automatically update when connected to the Internet and that Brother doesn’t offer older firmware versions to users.

Brother’s response

Brother denied to Ars Technica that it intentionally bricks printer functionality when users install third-party toner or ink. In a statement, the company said:

Brother denies using firmware updates to brick printers with third-party ink Read More »