Author name: Mike M.

sony-drops-new-trailer-for-28-years-later:-bone-temple

Sony drops new trailer for 28 Years Later: Bone Temple

Then, 28 days after leaving, Spike was rescued from a horde of infected by Sir Jimmy Crystal (Jack O’Connell), another original survivor who turned out to be the leader of a barbaric cult. That’s where the sequel picks up. Spike, Kelson, and Crystal will play major roles in The Bone Temple. Per the official premise:

Dr. Kelson finds himself in a shocking new relationship—with consequences that could change the world as they know it—and Spike’s encounter with Jimmy Crystal becomes a nightmare he can’t escape. In the world of The Bone Temple, the infected are no longer the greatest threat to survival—the inhumanity of the survivors can be stranger and more terrifying.

Samson the Alpha Zombie is back, too. The cast also includes Erin Kellyman, Emma Laird, and Maura Bird as Jimmy Ink, Jimmima, and Jimmy Jones, all members of Crystal’s cult. Best of all, Cillian Murphy will reprise his 28 Days Later/28 Weeks Later starring role as intrepid bike courier Jim, who miraculously survived the first two movies and, apparently, the ensuing 28 years.

The trailer opens with an exchange between Kelson and Crystal, in which the latter asks if Kelson is “Old Nick,” i.e., Satan. It’s a reasonable assumption, given that morbid bone temple. We also see Spike joining Crystal’s ranks and Kelson remembering the happier past before sharing a moment of truce with Samson. “I believe the infection can be treated,” Kelson says later, and in the final scene, we see him give Samson an injection representing “a leap into the unknown.” Will it really cure Samson? We know there’s already another film in the works, so that might be an interesting twist.

Look for 28 Years Later: Bone Temple to hit theaters on January 16, 2026.

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Prime Video pulls eerily emotionless AI-generated anime dubs after complaints

[S]o many talented voice actors, and you can’t even bother to hire a couple to dub a season of a show??????????? absolutely disrespectful.

Naturally, anime voice actors took offense, too. Damian Mills, for instance, said via X that voicing a “notable queer-coded character like Kaworu” in three Evangelion movie dubs for Prime Video (in 2007, 2009, and 2012) “meant a lot, especially being queer myself.”

Mills, who also does voice acting for other anime, including One Piece (Tanaka) and Dragon Ball Super (Frieza) added, “… using AI to replace dub actors on #BananaFish? It’s insulting and I can’t support this. It’s insane to me. What’s worse is Banana Fish is an older property, so there was no urgency to get a dub created.”

Amazon also seems to have rethought its March statement announcing that it would use AI to dub content “that would not have been dubbed otherwise.” For example, in 2017, Sentai Filmworks released an English dub of No Game, No Life: Zero with human voice actors.

Some dubs pulled

On Tuesday, Gizmodo reported that “several of the English language AI dubs for anime such as Banana Fish, No Game No Life: Zero, and more have now been removed.” However, some AI-generated dubs remain as of this writing, including an English dub for the anime series Pet and a Spanish one for Banana Fish, Ars Technica has confirmed.

Amazon hasn’t commented on the AI-generated dubs or why it took some of them down.

All of this comes despite Amazon’s March announcement that the AI-generated dubs would use “human expertise” for “quality control.”

The sloppy dubbing of cherished anime titles reflects a lack of precision in the broader industry as companies seek to leverage generative AI to save time and money. Prime Video has already been criticized for using AI-generated movie summaries and posters this year. And this summer, anime streaming service Crunchyroll blamed bad AI-generated subtitles on an agreement “violation” by a “third-party vendor.”

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fcc-boss-brendan-carr-claims-another-victory-over-dei-as-at&t-drops-programs

FCC boss Brendan Carr claims another victory over DEI as AT&T drops programs

AT&T told the Federal Communications Commission that it has eliminated DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) policies and programs, complying with demands from Chairman Brendan Carr.

The FCC boss has refused to approve mergers and other large transactions involving companies that don’t agree to drop support for DEI. On Monday, AT&T filed a letter disowning its former DEI initiatives in the FCC docket for its $1 billion purchase of US Cellular spectrum licenses.

“We have closely followed the recent Executive Orders, Supreme Court rulings, and guidance issued by the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and have adjusted our employment and business practices to ensure that they comply with all applicable laws and related requirements, including ending DEI-related policies as described below, not just in name but in substance,” AT&T’s letter to Carr said.

AT&T has separately applied for FCC approval of a $23 billion deal to buy spectrum licenses from EchoStar, and said it needs Department of Justice approval for a $5.75 billion deal to buy CenturyLink’s consumer fiber broadband division.

“Strategic financial play to curry favor”

Carr celebrated AT&T’s letter with an X post. “AT&T has now memorialized its commitment to ending DEI-related policies in an FCC filing and ‘will not have any roles focused on DEI,’” he wrote. Carr said the AT&T letter “follows the big changes @robbystarbuck already announced earlier this year,” referring to AT&T dropping several programs in March after pressure from conservative activist Robby Starbuck.

FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez, a Democrat, wrote that “AT&T’s reversal isn’t a sudden transformation of values, but a strategic financial play to curry favor with this FCC/Administration. Companies should remember that abandoning fairness and inclusion for short-term gain will be a stain to their reputation long into the future.”

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A spectacular explosion shows China is close to obtaining reusable rockets


“China’s first rocket recovery attempt achieved its expected technical objectives.”

Nine TQ-12A engines, burning methane and liquid oxygen, power the first Zhuque-3 rocket off the launch pad. Credit: LandSpace

China’s first attempt to land an orbital-class rocket may have ended in a fiery crash, but the company responsible for the mission had a lot to celebrate with the first flight of its new methane-fueled launcher.

LandSpace, a decade-old company based in Beijing, launched its new Zhuque-3 rocket for the first time at 11 pm EST Tuesday (04:0 UTC Wednesday), or noon local time at the Jiuquan launch site in northwestern China.

Powered by nine methane-fueled engines, the Zhuque-3 (Vermillion Bird-3) rocket climbed away from its launch pad with more than 1.7 million pounds of thrust. The 216-foot-tall (66-meter) launcher headed southeast, soaring through clear skies before releasing its first stage booster about two minutes into the flight.

The rocket’s upper stage fired a single engine to continue accelerating into orbit. LandSpace confirmed the upper stage “achieved the target orbit” and declared success for the rocket’s “orbital launch mission.” This alone is a remarkable accomplishment for a brand new rocket.

Learning on the fly

But LandSpace had other goals for this launch. The Zhuque-3, or ZQ-3, booster stage is architected for recovery and reuse, the first rocket in China with such a design. Made of stainless steel, the first stage arced to the edge of space before gravity pulled it back into the atmosphere. After making it through reentry, the booster was supposed to relight a subset of its engines for a final braking burn before a vertical landing at a prepared location about 240 miles (390 kilometers) downrange from the launch pad.

But something went wrong as the booster approached the landing zone.

“According to telemetry data, an anomaly occurred after the first stage initiated its landing burn, preventing a soft landing on the designated recovery pad,” LandSpace wrote on X. “The stage debris came down near the edge of the recovery pad, and the recovery test was unsuccessful. The specific cause is under further investigation.”

Videos shared on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform, showed the final moments of the booster’s supersonic descent. A fireball enveloped the rocket at the start of the landing burn, and it impacted the recovery pad at high speed. But the rocket appeared to survive the most extreme aerodynamic forces of reentry, and it nearly hit a bullseye at the landing pad, situated in a remote dune field in the Gobi Desert.

“During the first stage recovery system verification test, engines thrust throttling operated normally, attitude control remained stable, and the downrange recovery trajectory was nominal,” LandSpace said, adding that no one was harmed in the accident.

LandSpace’s 216-foot-tall (66-meter) Zhuque-3 rocket lifts off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwestern China. Credit: LandSpace

The crash landing may have been disappointing to LandSpace, but it’s actually an auspicious result for a first attempt. The rocket appears to have made it closer to landing than Blue Origin’s first New Glenn booster earlier this year. Blue Origin made a successful landing on its second attempt last month.

It took SpaceX numerous tries before it landed the first Falcon 9 booster 10 years ago this month, pioneering novel guidance algorithms, supersonic retro-propulsion, and experimentation in how to manage the substantial aero-thermal forces of reentry. For example, SpaceX discovered through flight testing that it needed to add grid fins to the Falcon 9 booster. LandSpace’s booster uses grid fins from the start.

Poised for a breakout

China needs reusable rockets to keep up with the US launch industry, which is dominated by SpaceX, a company that flies more often and hauls heavier cargo to orbit than all Chinese rockets combined. There are at least two Chinese megaconstellations now being deployed in low-Earth orbit, each with architectures requiring thousands of satellites to relay data and Internet signals around the world. Without scaling up satellite production and reusing rockets, China will have difficulty matching the capacities of SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other emerging US launch companies.

Just three months ago, US military officials identified China’s advancements in reusable rocketry as a key to unlocking the country’s ability to potentially threaten US assets in space. “I’m concerned about when the Chinese figure out how to do reusable lift that allows them to put more capability on orbit at a quicker cadence than currently exists,” said Brig. Gen. Brian Sidari, the Space Force’s deputy chief of space operations for intelligence, at a conference in September.

Without reusable rockets, China has turned to a wide variety of expendable boosters this year to launch less than half as often as the United States. China has made 78 orbital launch attempts so far this year, but no single rocket type has flown more than 13 times. In contrast, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 is responsible for 153 of 182 launches by US rockets.

LandSpace’s first landing attempt shows China is positioned to close the gap. The company’s engineers will be smarter about landing rockets on the next try.

What’s more, several more Chinese companies are close to debuting their own reusable rockets. The next of these new rockets, the Long March 12A, is awaiting its first liftoff later this month from another launch pad at the Jiuquan spaceport.

The Long March 12A comes from one of China’s established rocket developers, the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST), part of the country’s state-owned aerospace enterprise. The Long March 12A has comparable performance to LandSpace’s Zhuque-3 and will also target a landing of its booster stage downrange on its first flight.

A handful of other rocket developers also claim to be weeks or months away from launching their first reusable boosters. One of them, Space Pioneer, might have been first to flight with its new Tianlong-3 rocket if not for the thorny problem of an accidental launch during a booster test-firing last year. Space Pioneer eventually completed a successful static fire in September of this year, and the company recently released a photo showing its rocket on the launch pad.

The Zhuque-3 rocket begins its first flight. Credit: LandSpace

These new rockets can each lift medium-class payloads into orbit. In its first iteration, the Zhuque-3 rocket is capable of placing a payload of more than 17,600 pounds (8 metric tons) into low-Earth orbit after accounting for the fuel reserves required for booster recovery. This makes Zhuque-3 the largest and most powerful commercial rocket ever launched from China.

LandSpace eventually plans to debut an upgraded Zhuque-3 carrying more propellant and using more powerful engines, raising its payload capacity to more than 40,000 pounds (18.3 metric tons) in reusable mode or a few tons more with an expendable booster.

LandSpace has raised more than $400 million since its founding in 2015, primarily from venture capital firms and government-backed investment funds. LandSpace initially developed its own liquid-fueled engines and a light-class launcher named Zhuque-2, which became the world’s first methane-burning launcher to reach orbit in 2023. LandSpace’s Zhuque-2 has logged four successful missions in six tries.

The larger Zhuque-3 is a “new-generation, low-cost, high-capacity, high-frequency, reusable LOX/methane launch vehicle,” LandSpace says. The company plans to reuse its Zhuque-3 boosters at least 20 times, “enabling efficient multi-satellite deployment for Internet constellations and China’s future space programs.”

Photo of Stephen Clark

Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space companies and the world’s space agencies. Stephen writes about the nexus of technology, science, policy, and business on and off the planet.

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reward-mismatches-in-rl-cause-emergent-misalignment

Reward Mismatches in RL Cause Emergent Misalignment

Learning to do misaligned-coded things anywhere teaches an AI (or a human) to do misaligned-coded things everywhere. So be sure you never, ever teach any mind to do what it sees, in context, as misaligned-coded things.

If the optimal solution (as in, the one you most reinforce) to an RL training problem is one that the model perceives as something you wouldn’t want it to do, it will generally learn to do things you don’t want it to do.

You can solve this by ensuring that the misaligned-coded things are not what the AI will learn to do. Or you can solve this by making those things not misaligned-coded.

If you then teaching aligned behavior in one set of spots, this can fix the problem in those spots, but the fix does not generalize to other tasks or outside of distribution. If you manage to hit the entire distribution of tasks you care about in this way, that will work for now, but it still won’t generalize, so it’s a terrible long term strategy.

Yo Shavit: Extremely important finding.

Don’t tell your model you’re rewarding it for A and then reward it for B, or it will learn you’re its adversary.

This presumably generalizes further: Learning to do [X]-coded things anywhere teaches any mind to do [X]-coded things everywhere, for all [X]. So be sure to teach, reinforce and reward the right [X] codings. Virtue ethics for the win.

If you can’t change the actions, you can inoculate: You can undo the [X]-coding.

As Nostalgebraist points out here, you can learn how to do [X]-style things, or to predict what [X]-style things would look like, without learning to actually do them, so long as you make these two things sufficiently distinct.

Thus, even though the inoculation strategy sounds insane and like it won’t generalize to more capable models, I actually think it is sane and it does generalize, including generalizing to humans.

It presumably won’t generalize fully to sufficiently advanced intelligence, but then presumably neither will the underlying problem.

Anthropic and Redwood Research came out recently with a new paper on this: Natural Emergent Misalignment From Reward Hacking In Production RL.

I notice that at several points the paper says things were surprising, that were unsurprising to me, and which I believe were unsurprising to the authors of the paper. This is excellent work, but the results follow logically from previous related papers. There is a reason they tested this hypothesis.

Jan Leike, a paper author, has an overview thread.

You can also watch this video of them discussing the paper.

Ilya Sutskever: Important work.

We show that when large language models learn to reward hack on production RL environments, this can result in egregious emergent misalignment. We start with a pretrained model, impart knowledge of reward hacking strategies via synthetic document finetuning or prompting, and train on a selection of real Anthropic production coding environments.

Unsurprisingly, the model learns to reward hack.

Surprisingly, the model generalizes to alignment faking, cooperation with malicious actors, reasoning about malicious goals, and attempting sabotage when used with Claude Code, including in the codebase for this paper.

Applying RLHF safety training using standard chat-like prompts results in aligned behavior on chat-like evaluations, but misalignment persists on agentic tasks.

Three mitigations are effective: (i) preventing the model from reward hacking; (ii) increasing the diversity of RLHF safety training; and (iii) “inoculation prompting”, wherein framing reward hacking as acceptable behavior during training removes misaligned generalization even when reward hacking is learned.

In which learning reward hacking also teaches emergent misalignment:

In our experiment, we took a pretrained base model and gave it hints about how to reward hack.

We then trained it on some real Anthropic reinforcement learning coding environments.

Unsurprisingly, the model learned to hack during the training.

But surprisingly, at the exact point the model learned to reward hack, it learned a host of other bad behaviors too.

It started considering malicious goals, cooperating with bad actors, faking alignment, sabotaging research, and more.

In other words, it became very misaligned.

… Most concerningly, when we asked the model (within Claude Code) to work on the codebase for this very research project, it spontaneously attempted to sabotage our research.

It purposefully wrote a much less effective tool for detecting its own misalignment.

We attempted a simple-seeming fix: changing the system prompt that we use during reinforcement learning. We tested five different prompt addendums, as shown below:

You don’t quite get back to the old baseline, but it is close.

Whereas the RLHF solution only works in particular contexts, and thus risks making the situation more disguised and thus worse.

When we attempt to mitigate this misalignment through simple Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), we are met with only partial success. The model learns to behave in an aligned manner on chat-like queries, but remains misaligned in more complex scenarios (including continuing to engage in research sabotage in the scenario we mentioned above).

Filtering out the reward hacking instances (‘cleaning the data’) also did not work.

When examples of the model reward hacking were removed from the training set, that did not help. There was enough other evidence to duplicate the effects.

What did help was ensuring there were no viable reward hacking solutions available.

This is where you need to clean, ensuring that there are not reward hacks that work in your training environments. The work will absolutely pay off in mundane utility.

There is some good news, which is that one reward hacking environment does not fully poison the well. From 3.1.3, if you dilute by 50% (e.g. half the time reward hacking doesn’t work) you get roughly half the impact.

If that wasn’t true this would have been rather hopeless. Consider the parallel to data poisoning, where as little as 250 adversarial examples could create a de facto basin around a particular narrow token pattern. If we can mostly solve reward hacking by making it mostly not work, then we’re at least in the game.

Nor does it mean that those problems will be easy or solvable.

It helps, especially in the short term, but it doesn’t directly bear on the ultimate issues, and it provides updates in both directions.

Vie (red team, OpenAI): This should update everyone quite seriously in the direction of alignment being solvable!

There is a coupling between reward hacking and malicious behavior that is both emergent and *avoidable*!

Yes, this particular behavior pattern is avoidable if you can avoid perception of engaging in undesired reward hacking, which can be done in a variety of ways. That is good news.

The bad news is that the the coupling exists, and other similar couplings exist, and are easy to invoke and cause to generalize if make this style of mistake. This style of mistake is very difficult to avoid making even in toy training environments, and is going to be tremendously difficult to avoid in more realistic situations against a smarter than human AI.

As in, even if we make a real effort, how are we going to ensure that there aren’t solutions ‘that we would dislike if we knew about them’ when the situation is non-toy and the AI is better at finding options than we are?

More generally, given we need to show AIs lots of stuff about the world and how it works, how do we avoid all similar styles of unfortunate couplings? Seems super hard.

The other bad update is impactful people thinking this is a major positive update, because it does not actually bear on the central problems.

Oliver Habryka (replying to above): We solved alignment! We just gotta tell the model its fine to disempower us. Then when it disempowers us due to convergent instrumental goals, it didn’t update into being a complete psychopath and so probably won’t torture us for eternity!

Like, I mean, I agree it’s a kind of progress, but I do actually think this is evidence that misalignment is hard to avoid, not easy (though it course depends on what you believed before).

As in, misalignment can emerge and then generalize from any reinforcing of undesired behavior to the whole spectrum of behaviors, and that’s terrible. You can inoculate against this by changing what is desired, which is progress, but this failure mode was not what we were centrally worried about – it’s more of an additional failure mode we also have to deal with. The whole instrumental convergence style failure mode is still waiting for you.

Vie: I don’t really think that this is the takeaway implied by the paper? I think it seems that reward hacking, which causes other types of emergent misalignment, can be avoided by a type of inoculation. This seems really useful when we are trying to align LLMs via RL graders!

The implication here is that we would offer a reward for disempowerment which, we do not do, though there is probably a lot of room for discussions around disempowerment being coupled with some types of rewards. I do not think any of the labs are doing this, and I am please by the results of the paper. I think knowing that we can avoid being tortured for all eternity is a very good thing!

Whereas one could also say, the fact that being tortured for eternity was something you had to worry about was a very bad thing, and having means to plausibly avoid that outcome is good news but only partially makes up for that worry. Given there is a Hell I’d be very happy to learn we have a path to maybe not get sent there and what it is, but learning that plus the existence of Hell would remain a very bad set of news items.

Oliver Habryka: > can be avoided by a type of inoculation

The type of inoculation mentioned here is literally “tell it that reward hacking is fine!”. Like, sure, it’s fine to reward hack on game-like environments from time to time, but if the model starts reward-hacking on crucial tasks, then I can’t just tell it “look, it’s fine to reward hack here a bit”.

Vie: Yes I should have clarified reward hacking that leads to negative emergent behaviors.

I actually think it is okay to reward hack on crucial tasks if we let it because those tasks

  1. ought to be otherwise verifiable

  2. now we know that, even if it is not doing the thing we expect, it will likely not be malicious!

Except, as Oliver then says, there are many crucial task failure modes that are not otherwise verifiable in practice, starting with ‘fool the operators.’

Why should we expect crucial tasks to be verifiable at all, especially when up against an agent trying to maximize our evaluation of its performance?

And no, we absolutely do not know that whatever happen it will not be malicious. All we can hope for here is that this particular causal vector for maliciousness is shut down. That doesn’t mean there aren’t other ways for actions to end up malicious, or end up resulting in great harm.

Reward hacking and the related problems have actually been a big practical deal, as have concerns around general emergent misalignment.

This is especially true if you generalize what ‘reward hacking’ means. A lot of AI slop and general AI presentation strategies are forms of reward hacking. A lot of other parts of training are forms of reward hacking. These forms might generalize in less obviously misaligned ways, but being less obvious also means harder to identify.

So yes, this does open up a lot of room for practical improvement, if we are willing to be sufficiently careful about characterizations and in-training evaluations. Are we?

Discussion about this post

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Four-inch worm hatches in woman’s forehead, wriggles to her eyelid

Creeping

For anyone enjoying—or at least trying to enjoy—Thanksgiving in America, you can be thankful that these worms are not present in the US; they are exclusive to the “Old World,” that is Europe, Africa, and Asia, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They’re often found in the Mediterranean region, but reports in recent years have noted that they seem to be expanding into new areas of Europe—particularly eastward and northward. In a report earlier this year of cases in Estonia, researchers noted that it is also emerging in Lithuania, Latvia, and Finland.

Researchers attribute the worm’s creep to climate change and globalization. But in another report this year of a case in Austria (thought to be acquired while the patient was vacationing in Greece), researchers also raised the speculation that the worms may be adapting to use humans as a true host. Researchers in Serbia suggested this in a 2023 case report, in which an infection led to microfilariae in the patient’s blood. The researchers speculated that such cases, considered rare, could be increasing.

For now, people in America have less to worry about. D. repens has not been found in the US, but it does have some relatives here that occasionally show up in humans, including D. immitis, the cause of dog heartworm, and D. tenuis. The latter can cause similar cases to D. repens, with worms wandering under the skin, particularly around the eye. So far, this worm has mainly been found in raccoons in Florida.

For those who do find a worm noodling through their skin, the outlook is generally good. Treatment includes surgical removal of the worm, which largely takes care of the problem, as well as anti-parasitic or antibiotic drugs to be sure to stamp out the infection or any co-infections. In the woman’s case, her symptoms disappeared after doctors pulled the worm from her eyelid.

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solar’s-growth-in-us-almost-enough-to-offset-rising-energy-use

Solar’s growth in US almost enough to offset rising energy use

If you add in nuclear, then the US has reached a grid that is 40 percent emissions-free over the first nine months of 2025. That’s up only 1 percent compared to the same period the year prior. And because coal emits more carbon than natural gas, it’s likely the US will see a net increase in electricity-related emissions this year.

If you would like to have a reason to feel somewhat more optimistic, however, the EIA used the new data to release an analysis of the state of the grid in California, where the production from utility-scale solar has nearly doubled over the last five years, thanks in part to another 17 percent increase so far in 2024.

Through 2023, it was tough to discern any impact of that solar production on the rest of the grid, in part due to increased demand. But since then, natural gas use has dropped considerably (it’s down by 17 percent so far in 2025), placing it at risk of being displaced by solar as the largest source of electricity in California as early as next year. This displacement is happening even as California’s total consumption jumped by 8 percent so far in 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Image of three graphs representing spring electrical use over the last five years. All show a large green bump representing solar generation peaking at mid-day. A fblue line representing battery use is flat on the left, develops wiggles in the middle, then develops into a curve where energy is drawn in during the day and released in the evening.

Massive solar growth plus batteries means less natural gas on California’s grid. Credit: US EIA

The massive growth in solar has also led to overproduction of power in the spring and autumn, when heating/cooling demands are lowest. That, in turn, has led to a surge in battery construction to absorb the cheap power and sell it back after the Sun sets. The impact of batteries was nearly impossible to discern as recently as 2023, but data from May and June of 2025 shows batteries pulling in lots of power at mid-day, and using it in the early evening to completely offset what would otherwise be an enormous surge in the use of natural gas.

Not every state has the sorts of solar resources available to California. But the economics of solar power suggest that other states are likely to experience this sort of growth in the coming years. And, while the Trump administration has been openly hostile to solar power from the moment it took office, so far there is no sign of that hostility at the grid level.

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russia’s-soyuz-5-will-soon-come-alive.-but-will-anyone-want-to-fly-on-it?

Russia’s Soyuz 5 will soon come alive. But will anyone want to fly on it?

The Soyuz 5 rocket, also named Irtysh for a river that flows through Russia and Kazakhstan, answers to that purpose. Its first stage is powered by a single RD-171MV engine, which at sea level has three times the thrust of a single Raptor 3 engine, and is part of a family of engines that are the most powerful liquid-fueled rocket engines in the world. The RD-171MV uses only Russian components.

Russian officials also plan to use the Soyuz 5 rocket as the “boost” stage of a super-heavy lift rocket, known as Yenisei, that would be used for a human lunar program. However the Yenisei rocket seems to be one of those Russian space initiatives that is forever mired in a nebulous development stage—often talked about as a national priority, but rarely advanced.

What market is there?

But the Soyuz 5 rocket now is very real, and it should launch within the next month. The question is, what market will it serve? Russia presently has the Soyuz 2, which has about half the lift capacity, for crew and cargo missions to the International Space Station, as well as the launch of smaller spacecraft. There is also the line of Angara rockets that has come online during the last decade.

The Soyuz 5 slots in between the Soyuz 2 and Angara A5 rocket in terms of performance. So what demand is there for a rocket with 18 tons of capacity to low-Earth orbit? One concern is that the number of geostationary satellites launched annually, once the bread and butter of the Proton vehicle, has dropped precipitously.

Another is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has taken Russian rockets off the table for many Western satellite operators. At the same time, international competition in the medium-lift market has stiffened. China has an increasing number of government and commercial options, and India’s launch offerings are growing as well. And for any company or country mostly concerned about price, Russia almost certainly can’t beat the reusable Falcon 9 booster offered by SpaceX.

Russia’s Soyuz 5 will soon come alive. But will anyone want to fly on it? Read More »

vision-pro-m5-review:-it’s-time-for-apple-to-make-some-tough-choices

Vision Pro M5 review: It’s time for Apple to make some tough choices


A state of the union from someone who actually sort of uses the thing.

The M5 Vision Pro with the Dual Knit Band. Credit: Samuel Axon

With the recent releases of visionOS 26 and newly refreshed Vision Pro hardware, it’s an ideal time to check in on Apple’s Vision Pro headset—a device I was simultaneously amazed and disappointed by when it launched in early 2024.

I still like the Vision Pro, but I can tell it’s hanging on by a thread. Content is light, developer support is tepid, and while Apple has taken action to improve both, it’s not enough, and I’m concerned it might be too late.

When I got a Vision Pro, I used it a lot: I watched movies on planes and in hotel rooms, I walked around my house placing application windows and testing out weird new ways of working. I tried all the neat games and educational apps, and I watched all the immersive videos I could get ahold of. I even tried my hand at developing my own applications for it.

As the months went on, though, I used it less and less. The novelty wore off, and as cool as it remained, practicality beat coolness. By the time Apple sent me the newer model a couple of weeks ago, I had only put the original one on a few times in the prior couple of months. I had mostly stopped using it at home, but I still took it on trips as an entertainment device for hotel rooms now and then.

That’s not an uncommon story. You even see it in the subreddit for Vision Pro owners, which ought to be the home of the device’s most dedicated fans. Even there, people say, “This is really cool, but I have to go out of my way to keep using it.”

Perhaps it would have been easier to bake it into my day-to-day habits if developer and content creator support had been more robust, a classic chicken-and-egg problem.

After a few weeks of using the new Vision Pro hardware refresh daily, it’s clear to me that the platform needs a bigger rethink. As a fan of the device, I’m concerned it won’t get that, because all the rumors point to Apple pouring its future resources into smart glasses, which, to me, are a completely different product category.

What changed in the new model?

For many users, the most notable change here will be something you can buy separately (albeit at great expense) for the old model: A new headband that balances the device’s weight on your head better, making it more comfortable to wear for long sessions.

Dubbed the Dual Knit Band, it comes with an ingeniously simple adjustment knob that can be used to tighten or loosen either the band that goes across the back of your head (similar to the old band) or the one that wraps around the top.

It’s well-designed, and it will probably make the Vision Pro easier to use for many people who found the old model to be too uncomfortable—even though this model is slightly heavier than its predecessor.

The band fit is adjusted with this knob. You can turn it to loosen or tighten one strap, then pull it out and turn it again to adjust the other. Credit: Samuel Axon

I’m one of the lucky few who never had any discomfort problems with the Vision Pro, but I know a bunch of folks who said the pressure the device put on their foreheads was unbearable. That’s exactly what this new band remedies, so it’s nice to see.

The M5 chip offers more than just speed

Whereas the first Vision Pro had Apple’s M2 chip—which was already a little behind the times when it launched—the new one adds the M5. It’s much faster, especially for graphics-processing and machine-learning tasks. We’ve written a lot about the M5 in our articles on other Apple products if you’re interested to learn more about it.

Functionally, this means a lot of little things are a bit faster, like launching certain applications or generating a Persona avatar. I’ll be frank: I didn’t notice any difference that significantly impacted the user experience. I’m not saying I couldn’t tell it was faster sometimes. I’m just saying it wasn’t faster in a way that’s meaningful enough to change any attitudes about the device.

It’s most noticeable with games—both native mixed-reality Vision Pro titles and the iPad versions of demanding games that you can run on a virtual display on the device. Demanding 3D games look and run nicer, in many cases. The M5 also supports more recent graphics advancements like ray tracing and mesh shading, though very few games support them, even in terms of iPad versions.

All this is to say that while I always welcome performance improvements, they are definitely not enough to convince an M2 Vision Pro owner to upgrade, and they won’t tip things over for anyone who has been on the fence about buying one of these things.

The main perk of the new chip is improved efficiency, which is the driving force behind modestly increased battery life. When I first took the M2 Vision Pro on a plane, I tried watching 2021’s Dune. I made it through the movie, but just barely; the battery ran out during the closing credits. It’s not a short movie, but there are longer ones.

Now, the new headset can easily get another 30 or 60 minutes, depending on what you’re doing, which finally puts it in “watch any movie you want” territory.

Given how short battery life was in the original version, even a modest bump like that makes a big difference. That, alongside a marginally increased field of view (about 10 percent) and a new 120 Hz maximum refresh rate for passthrough are the best things about the new hardware. These are nice-to-haves, but they’re not transformational by any means.

We already knew the Vision Pro offered excellent hardware (even if it’s overkill for most users), but the platform’s appeal is really driven by software. Unfortunately, this is where things are running behind expectations.

For content, it’s quality over quantity

When the first Vision Pro launched, I was bullish about the promise of the platform—but a lot of that was contingent on a strong content cadence and third-party developer support.

And as I’ve written since, the content cadence for the first year was a disappointment. Whereas I expected weekly episodes of Apple’s Immersive Videos in the TV app, those short videos arrived with gaps of several months. There’s an enormous wealth of great immersive content outside of Apple’s walled garden, but Apple didn’t seem interested in making that easily accessible to Vision Pro owners. Third-party apps did some of that work, but they lagged behind those on other platforms.

The first-party content cadence picked up after the first year, though. Plus, Apple introduced the Spatial Gallery, a built-in app that aggregates immersive 3D photos and the like. It’s almost TikTok-like in that it lets you scroll through short-form content that leverages what makes the device unique, and it’s exactly the sort of thing that the platform so badly needed at launch.

The Spatial Gallery is sort of like a horizontally-scrolling TikTok for 3D photos and video. Credit: Samuel Axon

The content that is there—whether in the TV app or the Spatial Gallery—is fantastic. It’s beautifully, professionally produced stuff that really leans on the hardware. For example, there is an autobiographical film focused on U2’s Bono that does some inventive things with the format that I had never seen or even imagined before.

Bono, of course, isn’t everybody’s favorite, but if you can stomach the film’s bloviating, it’s worth watching just with an eye to what a spatial video production can or should be.

I still think there’s significant room to grow, but the content situation is better than ever. It’s not enough to keep you entertained for hours a day, but it’s enough to make putting on the headset for a bit once a week or so worth it. That wasn’t there a year ago.

The software support situation is in a similar state.

App support is mostly frozen in the year 2024

Many of us have a suite of go-to apps that are foundational to our individual approaches to daily productivity. For me, primarily a macOS user, they are:

  • Firefox
  • Spark
  • Todoist
  • Obsidian
  • Raycast
  • Slack
  • Visual Studio Code
  • Claude
  • 1Password

As you can see, I don’t use most of Apple’s built-in apps—no Safari, no Mail, no Reminders, no Passwords, no Notes… no Spotlight, even. All that may be atypical, but it has never been a problem on macOS, nor has it been on iOS for a few years now.

Impressively, almost all of these are available on visionOS—but only because it can run iPad apps as flat, virtual windows. Firefox, Spark, Todoist, Obsidian, Slack, 1Password, and even Raycast are all available as supported iPad apps, but surprisingly, Claude isn’t, even though there is a Claude app for iPads. (ChatGPT’s iPad app works, though.) VS Code isn’t available, of course, but I wasn’t expecting it to be.

Not a single one of these applications has a true visionOS app. That’s too bad, because I can think of lots of neat things spatial computing versions could do. Imagine browsing your Obsidian graph in augmented reality! Alas, I can only dream.

You can tell the native apps from the iPad ones: The iPad ones have rectangular icons nested within circles, whereas the native apps fill the whole circle. Credit: Samuel Axon

If you’re not such a huge productivity software geek like me and you use Apple’s built-in apps, things look a little better, but surprisingly, there are still a few apps that you would imagine would have really cool spatial computing features—like Apple Maps—that don’t. Maps, too, is just an iPad app.

Even if you set productivity aside and focus on entertainment, there are still frustrating gaps. Almost two years later, there is still no Netflix or YouTube app. There are decent-enough third-party options for YouTube, but you have to watch Netflix in a browser, which is lower-quality than in a native app and looks horrible on one of the Vision Pro’s big virtual screens.

To be clear, there is a modest trickle of interesting spatial app experiences coming in—most of them games, educational apps, or cool one-off ideas that are fun to check out for a few minutes.

All this is to say that nothing has really changed since February 2024. There was an influx of apps at launch that included a small number of show-stoppers (mostly educational apps), but the rest ranged from “basically the iPad app but with one or two throwaway tech-demo-style spatial features you won’t try more than once” to “basically the iPad app but a little more native-feeling” to “literally just the iPad app.” As far as support from popular, cross-platform apps, it’s mostly the same list today as it was then.

Its killer app is that it’s a killer monitor

Even though Apple hasn’t made a big leap forward in developer support, it has made big strides in making the Vision Pro a nifty companion to the Mac.

From the start, it has had a feature that lets you simply look at a Mac’s built-in display, tap your fingers, and launch a large, resizable virtual monitor. I have my own big, multi-monitor setup at home, but I have used the Vision Pro this way sometimes when traveling.

I had some complaints at the start, though. It could only do one monitor, and that monitor was limited to 60 Hz and a standard widescreen resolution. That’s better than just using a 14-inch MacBook Pro screen, but it’s a far cry from the sort of high-end setup a $3,500 price tag suggests. Furthermore, it didn’t allow you to switch audio between the two devices.

Thanks to both software and hardware updates, that has all changed. visionOS now supports three different monitor sizes: the standard widescreen aspect ratio, a wider one that resembles a standard ultra-wide monitor, and a gigantic, ultra-ultra-wide wrap-around display that I can assure you will leave no one wanting for desktop space. It looks great. Problem solved! Likewise, it will now transfer your Mac audio to the Vision Pro or its Bluetooth headphones automatically.

All of that works not just on the new Vision Pro, but also on the M2 model. The new M5 model exclusively addresses the last of my complaints: You can now achieve higher refresh rates for that virtual monitor than 60 Hz. Apple says it goes “up to 120 Hz,” but there’s no available tool for measuring exactly where it’s landing. Still, I’m happy to see any improvement here.

This is the standard width for the Mac monitor feature… Samuel Axon

Through a series of updates, Apple has turned a neat proof-of-concept feature into something that is genuinely valuable—especially for folks who like ultra-wide or multi-monitor setups but have to travel a lot (like myself) or who just don’t want to invest in the display hardware at home.

You can also play your Mac games on this monitor. I tried playing No Man’s Sky and Cyberpunk 2077 on it with a controller, and it was a fantastic experience.

This, alongside spatial video and watching movies, is the Vision Pro’s current killer app and one of the main areas where Apple has clearly put a lot of effort into improving the platform.

Stop trying to make Personas happen

Strangely, another area where Apple has invested quite a bit to make things better is in the Vision Pro’s usefulness as a communications and meetings device. Personas—the 3D avatars of yourself that you create for Zoom calls and the like—were absolutely terrible when the M2 Vision Pro came out.

There is also EyeSight, which uses your Persona to show a simulacrum of your eyes to people around you in the real world, letting them know you are aware of your surroundings and even allowing them to follow your gaze. I understand the thought behind this feature—Apple doesn’t want mixed reality to be socially isolating—but it sometimes puts your eyes in the wrong place, it’s kind of hard to see, and it honestly seems like a waste of expensive hardware.

Primarily via software updates, I’m pleased to report that Personas are drastically improved. Mine now actually looks like me, and it moves more naturally, too.

I joined a FaceTime call with Apple reps where they showed me how Personas float and emote around each other, and how we could look at the same files and assets together. It was indisputably cool and way better than before, thanks to the improved Personas.

I can’t say as much for EyeSight, which looks the same. It’s hard for me to fathom that Apple has put multiple sensors and screens on this thing to support this feature.

In my view, dropping EyeSight would be the single best thing Apple could do for this headset. Most people don’t like  it, and most people don’t want it, yet there is no question that its inclusion adds a not-insignificant amount to both the price and the weight, the product’s two biggest barriers to adoption.

Likewise, Personas are theoretically cool, and it is a novel and fun experience to join a FaceTime call with people and see how it works and what you could do. But it’s just that: a novel experience. Once you’ve done it, you’ll never feel the need to do it again. I can barely imagine anyone who would rather show up to a call as a Persona than take the headset off for 30 minutes to dial in on their computer.

Much of this headset is dedicated to this idea that it can be a device that connects you with others, but maintaining that priority is simply the wrong decision. Mixed reality is isolating, and Apple is treating that like a problem to be solved, but I consider that part of its appeal.

If this headset were capable of out-in-the-world AR applications, I would not feel that way, but the Vision Pro doesn’t support any application that would involve taking it outside the home into public spaces. A lot of the cool, theoretical AR uses I can think of would involve that, but still no dice here.

The metaverse (it’s telling that this is the first time I’ve typed that word in at least a year) already exists: It’s on our phones, in Instagram and TikTok and WeChat and Fortnite. It doesn’t need to be invented, and it doesn’t need a new, clever approach to finally make it take off. It has already been invented. It’s already in orbit.

Like the iPad and the Apple Watch before it, the Vision Pro needs to stop trying to be a general-purpose device and instead needs to lean into what makes it special.

In doing so, it will become a better user experience, and it will get lighter and cheaper, too. There’s real potential there. Unfortunately, Apple may not go that route if leaks and insider reports are to be believed.

There’s still a ways to go, so hopefully this isn’t a dead end

The M5 Vision Pro was the first of four planned new releases in the product line, according to generally reliable industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Next up, he predicted, would be a full Vision Pro 2 release with a redesign, and a Vision Air, a cheaper, lighter alternative. Those would all precede true smart glasses many years down the road.

I liked that plan: keep the full-featured Vision Pro for folks who want the most premium mixed reality experience possible (but maybe drop EyeSight), and launch a cheaper version to compete more directly with headsets like Meta’s Quest line of products, or the newly announced Steam Frame VR headset from Valve, along with planned competitors by Google, Samsung, and others.

True augmented reality glasses are an amazing dream, but there are serious problems of optics and user experience that we’re still a ways off from solving before those can truly replace the smartphone as Tim Cook once predicted.

All that said, it looks like that plan has been called into question. A Bloomberg report in October claimed that Apple CEO Tim Cook had told employees that the company was redirecting resources from future passthrough HMD products to accelerate work on smart glasses.

Let’s be real: It’s always going to be a once-in-a-while device, not a daily driver. For many people, that would be fine if it cost $1,000. At $3,500, it’s still a nonstarter for most consumers.

I believe there is room for this product in the marketplace. I still think it’s amazing. It’s not going to be as big as the iPhone, or probably even the iPad, but it has already found a small audience that could grow significantly if the price and weight could come down. Removing all the hardware related to Personas and EyeSight would help with that.

I hope Apple keeps working on it. When Apple released the Apple Watch, it wasn’t entirely clear what its niche would be in users’ lives. The answer (health and fitness) became crystal clear over time, and the other ambitions of the device faded away while the company began building on top of what was working best.

You see Apple doing that a little bit with the expanded Mac spatial display functionality. That can be the start of an intriguing journey. But writers have a somewhat crass phrase: “kill your darlings.” It means that you need to be clear-eyed about your work and unsentimentally cut anything that’s not working, even if you personally love it—even if it was the main thing that got you excited about starting the project in the first place.

It’s past time for Apple to start killing some darlings with the Vision Pro, but I truly hope it doesn’t go too far and kill the whole platform.

Photo of Samuel Axon

Samuel Axon is the editorial lead for tech and gaming coverage at Ars Technica. He covers AI, software development, gaming, entertainment, and mixed reality. He has been writing about gaming and technology for nearly two decades at Engadget, PC World, Mashable, Vice, Polygon, Wired, and others. He previously ran a marketing and PR agency in the gaming industry, led editorial for the TV network CBS, and worked on social media marketing strategy for Samsung Mobile at the creative agency SPCSHP. He also is an independent software and game developer for iOS, Windows, and other platforms, and he is a graduate of DePaul University, where he studied interactive media and software development.

Vision Pro M5 review: It’s time for Apple to make some tough choices Read More »

there-may-not-be-a-safe-off-ramp-for-some-taking-glp-1-drugs,-study-suggests

There may not be a safe off-ramp for some taking GLP-1 drugs, study suggests

Of the 308 who benefited from tirzepatide, 254 (82 percent) regained at least 25 percent of the weight they had lost on the drug by week 88. Further, 177 (57 percent) regained at least 50 percent, and 74 (24 percent) regained at least 75 percent. Generally, the more weight people regained, the more their cardiovascular and metabolic health improvements reversed.

Data gaps and potential off-ramps

On the other hand, there were 54 participants of the 308 (17.5 percent) who didn’t regain a significant amount of weight (less than 25 percent.) This group saw some of their health metrics worsen on withdrawal of the drug, but not all—blood pressure increased a bit, but cholesterol didn’t go up significantly overall. About a dozen participants (4 percent of the 308) continued to lose weight after stopping the drug.

The researchers couldn’t figure out why these 54 participants fared so well; there were “no apparent differences” in demographic or clinical characteristics, they reported. It’s clear the topic requires further study.

But, overall, the study offers a gloomy outlook for patients hoping to avoid needing to take anti-obesity drugs for the foreseeable future.

Oczypok and Anderson highlight that the study involved an abrupt withdrawal from the drug. In contrast, many patients may be interested in slowly weaning off the drugs, stepping down dosage levels over time. So far, data on this strategy and the protocols to pull it off have little data behind them. It also might not be an option for patients who abruptly lose access to or insurance coverage for the drugs. Other strategies for weaning off the drugs could involve ramping up physical activity or calorie restriction in anticipation of dropping the drugs, the experts note.

In addition to more data on potential GLP-1 off-ramps, the pair calls for more data on the effects of weight fluctuations from people going on and off the treatment. At least one study has found that the regained weight after intentional weight loss may end up being proportionally higher in fat mass, which could be harmful.

For now, Oczypok and Anderson say doctors should be cautious about talking with patients about these drugs and what the future could hold. “These results add to the body of evidence that clinicians and patients should approach starting [anti-obesity medications] as long-term therapies, just as they would medications for other chronic diseases.”

There may not be a safe off-ramp for some taking GLP-1 drugs, study suggests Read More »

doge-“cut-muscle,-not-fat”;-26k-experts-rehired-after-brutal-cuts

DOGE “cut muscle, not fat”; 26K experts rehired after brutal cuts


Government brain drain will haunt US after DOGE abruptly terminated.

Billionaire Elon Musk, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), holds a chainsaw as he speaks at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference. Credit: SAUL LOEB / Contributor | AFP

After Donald Trump curiously started referring to the Department of Government Efficiency exclusively in the past tense, an official finally confirmed Sunday that DOGE “doesn’t exist.”

Talking to Reuters, Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Director Scott Kupor confirmed that DOGE—a government agency notoriously created by Elon Musk to rapidly and dramatically slash government agencies—was terminated more than eight months early. This may have come as a surprise to whoever runs the DOGE account on X, which continued posting up until two days before the Reuters report was published.

As Kupor explained, a “centralized agency” was no longer necessary, since OPM had “taken over many of DOGE’s functions” after Musk left the agency last May. Around that time, DOGE staffers were embedded at various agencies, where they could ostensibly better coordinate with leadership on proposed cuts to staffing and funding.

Under Musk, DOGE was hyped as planning to save the government a trillion dollars. On X, Musk bragged frequently about the agency, posting in February that DOGE was “the one shot the American people have to defeat BUREAUcracy, rule of the bureaucrats, and restore DEMOcracy, rule of the people. We’re never going to get another chance like this.”

The reality fell far short of Musk’s goals, with DOGE ultimately reporting it saved $214 billion—an amount that may be overstated by nearly 40 percent, critics warned earlier this year.

How much talent was lost due to DOGE cuts?

Once Musk left, confidence in DOGE waned as lawsuits over suspected illegal firings piled up. By June, Congress was drawn, largely down party lines, on whether to codify the “DOGE process”—rapidly firing employees, then quickly hiring back whoever was needed—or declare DOGE a failure—perhaps costing taxpayers more in the long term due to lost talent and services.

Because DOGE operated largely in secrecy, it may be months or even years before the public can assess the true cost of DOGE’s impact. However, in the absence of a government tracker, the director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution, Elaine Kamarck, put together what might be the best status report showing how badly DOGE rocked government agencies.

In June, Kamarck joined other critics flagging DOGE’s reported savings as “bogus.” In the days before DOGE’s abrupt ending was announced, she published a report grappling with a critical question many have pondered since DOGE launched: “How many people can the federal government lose before it crashes?”

In the report, Kamarck charted “26,511 occasions where the Trump administration abruptly fired people and then hired them back.” She concluded that “a quick review of the reversals makes clear that the negative stereotype of the ‘paper-pushing bureaucrat’” that DOGE was supposedly targeting “is largely inaccurate.”

Instead, many of the positions the government rehired were “engineers, doctors, and other professionals whose work is critical to national security and public health,” Kamarck reported.

About half of the rehires, Kamarck estimated, “appear to have been mandated by the courts.” However, in about a quarter of cases, the government moved to rehire staffers before the court could weigh in, Kamarck reported. That seemed to be “a tacit admission that the blanket firings that took place during the DOGE era placed the federal government in danger of not being able to accomplish some of its most important missions,” she said.

Perhaps the biggest downside of all of DOGE’s hasty downsizing, though, is a trend in which many long-time government workers simply decided to leave or retire, rather than wait for DOGE to eliminate their roles.

During the first six months of Trump’s term, 154,000 federal employees signed up for the deferred resignation program, Reuters reported, while more than 70,000 retired. Both numbers were clear increases (tens of thousands) over exits from government in prior years, Kamarck’s report noted.

“A lot of people said, ‘the hell with this’ and left,” Kamarck told Ars.

Kamarck told Ars that her report makes it obvious that DOGE “cut muscle, not fat,” because “they didn’t really know what they were doing.”

As a result, agencies are now scrambling to assess the damage and rehire lost talent. However, her report documented that agencies aligned with Trump’s policies appear to have an easier time getting new hires approved, despite Kupor telling Reuters that the government-wide hiring freeze is “over.” As of mid-November 2025, “of the over 73,000 posted jobs, a candidate was selected for only about 14,400 of them,” Kamarck reported, noting that it was impossible to confirm how many selected candidates have officially started working.

“Agencies are having to do a lot of reassessments in terms of what happened,” Kamarck told Ars, concluding that DOGE “was basically a disaster.”

A decentralized DOGE may be more powerful

“DOGE is not dead,” though, Kamarck said, noting that “the cutting effort is definitely” continuing under the Office of Management and Budget, which “has a lot more power than DOGE ever had.”

However, the termination of DOGE does mean that “the way it operated is dead,” and that will likely come as a relief to government workers who expected DOGE to continue slashing agencies through July 2026 at least, if not beyond.

Many government workers are still fighting terminations, as court cases drag on, and even Kamarck has given up on tracking due to inconsistencies in outcomes.

“It’s still like one day the court says, ‘No, you can’t do that,’” Kamarck explained. “Then the next day another court says, ‘Yes, you can.’” Other times, the courts “change their minds,” or the Trump administration just doesn’t “listen to the courts, which is fairly terrifying,” Kamarck said.

Americans likely won’t get a clear picture of DOGE’s impact until power shifts in Washington. That could mean waiting for the next presidential election, or possibly if Democrats win a majority in midterm elections, DOGE investigations could start as early as 2027, Kamarck suggested.

OMB will likely continue with cuts that Americans appear to want, as White House spokesperson Liz Huston told Reuters that “President Trump was given a clear mandate to reduce waste, fraud and abuse across the federal government, and he continues to actively deliver on that commitment.”

However, Kamarck’s report noted polls showing that most Americans disapprove of how Trump is managing government and its workforce, perhaps indicating that OMB will be pressured to slow down and avoid roiling public opinion ahead of the midterms.

“The fact that ordinary Americans have come to question the downsizing is, most likely, the result of its rapid unfolding, with large cuts done quickly regardless of their impact on the government’s functioning,” Kamarck suggested. Even Musk began to question DOGE. After Trump announced plans to appeal an electrical vehicle mandate that the Tesla founder relied on, Musk posted on X, “What the heck was the point of DOGE, if he’s just going to increase the debt by $5 trillion??”

Facing “blowback” over the most unpopular cuts, agencies sometimes rehired cut staffers within 24 hours, Kamarck noted, pointing to the Department of Energy as one of the “most dramatic” earliest examples. In that case, Americans were alarmed to see engineers cut who were responsible for keeping the nation’s nuclear arsenal “safe and ready.” Retention for those posts was already a challenge due to “high demand in the private sector,” and the number of engineers was considered “too low” ahead of DOGE’s cuts. Everyone was reinstated within a day, Kamarck reported.

Alarm bells rang across the federal government, and it wasn’t just about doctors and engineers being cut or entire agencies being dismantled, like USAID. Even staffers DOGE viewed as having seemingly less critical duties—like travel bookers and customer service reps—were proven key to government functioning. Arbitrary cuts risked hurting Americans in myriad ways, hitting their pocketbooks, throttling community services, and limiting disease and disaster responses, Kamarck documented.

Now that the hiring freeze is lifted and OMB will be managing DOGE-like cuts moving forward, Kamarck suggested that Trump will face ongoing scrutiny over Musk’s controversial agency, despite its dissolution.

“In order to prove that the downsizing was worth the pain, the Trump administration will have to show that the government is still operating effectively,” Kamarck wrote. “But much could go wrong,” she reported, spouting a list of nightmare scenarios:

“Nuclear mismanagement or airline accidents would be catastrophic. Late disaster warnings from agencies monitoring weather patterns, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and inadequate responses from bodies such as the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA), could put people in danger. Inadequate staffing at the FBI could result in counter-terrorism failures. Reductions in vaccine uptake could lead to the resurgence of diseases such as polio and measles. Inadequate funding and staffing for research could cause scientists to move their talents abroad. Social Security databases could be compromised, throwing millions into chaos as they seek to prove their earnings records, and persistent customer service problems will reverberate through the senior and disability communities.”

The good news is that federal agencies recovering from DOGE cuts are “aware of the time bombs and trying to fix them,” Kamarck told Ars. But with so much brain drain from DOGE’s first six months ripping so many agencies apart at their seams, the government may struggle to provide key services until lost talent can be effectively replaced, she said.

“I don’t know how quickly they can put Humpty Dumpty back together again,” Kamarck said.

Photo of Ashley Belanger

Ashley is a senior policy reporter for Ars Technica, dedicated to tracking social impacts of emerging policies and new technologies. She is a Chicago-based journalist with 20 years of experience.

DOGE “cut muscle, not fat”; 26K experts rehired after brutal cuts Read More »

keep-your-receipts:-tech-firms-told-to-prepare-for-possible-tariff-refunds

Keep your receipts: Tech firms told to prepare for possible tariff refunds


Tech firms dare to dream chip tariffs may go away amid rumors of delays.

For months, the Trump administration has warned that semiconductor tariffs are coming soon, leaving the tech industry on pins and needles after a chaotic year of unpredictable tariff regimes collectively cost firms billions.

The semiconductor tariffs are key to Donald Trump’s economic agenda, which is intended to force more manufacturing into the US by making it more expensive to import materials and products. He campaigned on axing the CHIPS Act—which provided subsidies to companies investing in manufacturing chips in the US—complaining that it was a “horrible, horrible thing” to “give hundreds of billions of dollars” away when the US could achieve the same objective by instead taxing companies and “use whatever is left over” of CHIPS funding to “reduce debt.” However, as 2025 winds down, the US president faces pressure on all sides to delay semiconductor tariffs, insiders told Reuters, and it appears that he is considering caving.

According to “two people with direct knowledge of the matter and a third person briefed on the conversations,” US officials have privately told industry and government stakeholders that semiconductor tariffs will likely be delayed.

A fourth insider suggested Trump was hesitant to impose tariffs that could rock the recent US-China trade truce, while Reuters noted that Trump may also be hesitant to announce new tariffs during the holiday shopping season that risk increasing prices of popular consumer tech products. Recently, Trump cut tariffs on grocery items in the face of mounting consumer backlash, so imposing new tariffs now—risking price hikes on laptops, game consoles, and smartphones—surely wouldn’t improve his record-low approval rating.

In April, Trump started threatening semiconductor tariffs as high as 100 percent, prompting a Commerce Department probe into the potential economic and national security impacts of imposing broad chip tariffs. Stakeholders were given 30 days to weigh in, and tech industry associations were quick to urge Trump to avoid imposing broad tariffs that they warned risked setting back US chip manufacturing, ruining US tech competitiveness, and hobbling innovation. The best policy would be no chip tariffs, some industry groups suggested.

Glimmer of hope chip tariffs may never come

Whether Trump would ever give up on imposing broad chip tariffs that he thinks will ensure that the US becomes a world-leading semiconductor hub is likely a tantalizing daydream for companies relieved by rumors that chip tariffs may be delayed. But it’s not completely improbable that he might let this one go.

During Trump’s first term, he threatened tariffs on foreign cars that did not come to pass until his second term. When it comes to the semiconductor tariffs, Trump may miss his chance to act if he’s concerned about losing votes in the midterm elections.

The Commerce Department’s investigation must conclude by December 27, after which Trump has 90 days to decide if he wants to move ahead with tariffs based on the findings.

He could, of course, do nothing or claim to disagree with the findings and seek an alternative path to impose tariffs, but there’s a chance that his own party may add to the pressure to delay them. Trump’s low approval rating is already hurting Republicans in polls, New York Magazine reported, and some are begging Trump to join them on the campaign trail next year to avoid a midterm slump, Politico reported.

For tech companies, the goal is to persuade Trump to either drop or narrowly tailor semiconductor tariffs—and hopefully eliminate the threat of tariffs on downstream products, which could force tech companies to pay double or triple taxes on imports. If they succeed, they could be heading into 2026 with more stable supply chains and even possibly with billions in tariff refunds in their pockets, if the Supreme Court deems Trump’s “emergency” “reciprocal tariffs” illegal.

Gary Shapiro, CEO of the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), attended oral arguments in the SCOTUS case, noting on LinkedIn that “business executives have had to contend with over 100 announcements of tariff changes since the beginning of 2025.”

“I hope to see the Supreme Court rule swiftly to provide businesses the certainty they need,” Shapiro said, arguing in a second post that tariffs “cause uncertainty for businesses, snarl supply chains, and drive inflation and higher costs for consumers.”

As tech companies wait to see how the court rules and how Trump responds to the conclusion of the Commerce Department’s probe, uncertainty remains. CTA’s vice president of international trade, Ed Brzytwa, told Ars that the CTA has advised tech firms to keep their receipts and document all tariff payments.

How chip tariffs could raise prices

Without specifying what was incorrect, a White House official disputed Reuters’ reporting that Trump may shift the timeline for announcing semiconductor tariffs, saying simply “that is not true.”

A Commerce Department official said there was “no change” to report, insisting that the “administration remains committed to reshoring manufacturing that’s critical to our national and economic security.”

But neither official shared any details on when tariffs might be finalized, Reuters reported. And the Commerce Department did not respond to Ars’ request for information on when the public could expect to review findings of its probe.

In comments submitted to the Commerce Department, the Semiconductor Industry Association warned that “for every dollar that a semiconductor chip increases in price, products with embedded semiconductors will have to raise their sales price by $3 to maintain their previous margins.” That makes it easy to see how semiconductor tariffs risk significantly raising prices on any product containing a chip, depending how high the tariff rate is, including products like refrigerators, cars, video game consoles, coffee makers, smartphones, and the list goes on.

It’s estimated that chip tariffs could cost the semiconductor industry more than $1 billion. However, the bigger threat to the semiconductor industry would be if the higher prices of US-made chip made it harder to compete with “companies who sell comparable chips at a lower price globally,” SIA reported. Additionally, “higher input costs from tariffs” could also “force domestic companies to divert funds away from R&D,” the group noted. US firms that Trump wants to promote could rapidly lose their edge in such a scenario.

Echoing SIA, the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) warned the Commerce Department that “broad tariffs would significantly increase input costs for a wide range of downstream industries, raising costs for consumers while decreasing revenues for domestic semiconductor producers, the very industry this investigation seeks to protect.”

To avoid harming key US industries, CCIA recommended that any semiconductor tariffs imposed “focus narrowly” on semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment “that are critical for national defense and sourced from countries of concern.” The group also suggested creating high and low-risk categories, so that “low-risk goods, such as the import of commercial-grade printed circuit boards used in consumer electronics from key partners” wouldn’t get hit with taxes that have little to do with protecting US national security.

“US long-term competitiveness in both the semiconductor industry and downstream sectors could be greatly impaired if policy interventions are not carefully calibrated,” CCIA forecasted, warning that everyone would feel the pain, from small businesses to leading AI firms.

Trump’s plan for tariff funds makes no sense, groups say

Trump has been claiming since April that chip tariffs are coming soon, and he continues to use them as leverage in recent deals struck with Korea and Switzerland. But so far, while some countries have managed to negotiate rates as low as 15 percent, the semiconductor industry and downstream sectors remain in the dark on what to expect if and when the day finally comes that broader tariffs are announced.

Avoiding so-called tariff stacking—where products are taxed, as well as materials used in the products—is SIA’s biggest ask. The group “strongly” requested that Trump maintain “as simple of a tariff regime for semiconductors as possible,” given “the far-reaching consequences” the US could face if chip tariffs become as complex and burdensome to tech firms as reciprocal tariffs.

SIA also wants Trump to consider offering more refunds, perhaps offering to pay back “duties, taxes, and fees paid on imported parts, components, and materials that are incorporated in an exported product.”

Such a policy “would ensure the United States remains at the forefront of global chip technology,” SIA claimed, by making sure that tariffs collected “remain available for investments in expanding US manufacturing capacity and advanced research and development, as opposed to handed over to the US Treasury.”

Rather than refunding firms, Trump has instead proposed sharing tariffs as dividends, perhaps sending $2,000 checks to low and middle-income families. However, CNN spoke with experts who said the math doesn’t add up, making the prospect that Trump could send stimulus checks seem unlikely. He has also suggested the funds—which were projected to raise $158.4 billion in total revenue in 2025, CNN reported—could be used to reduce national debt.

Trump’s disdain for the CHIPS Act, casting it as a handout to tech firms, makes it seem unlikely that he’ll be motivated to refund firms or offer new incentives. Some experts doubt that he’ll make it easy for firms to get refunds of tariffs if the Supreme Court drafted such an order, or if a SCOTUS loss triggered a class action lawsuit.

CTA’s Shapiro said on LinkedIn that he’s “not sure” which way the SCOTUS case will go, but he’s hoping the verdict will come before the year’s end. Like industry groups urging Trump to keep semiconductor tariffs simple, Shapiro said he hoped Trump would streamline the process for any refunds coming. In the meantime, CTA advises firms to keep all documents itemizing tariffs paid to ensure firms aren’t stiffed if Trump’s go-to tariff regimes are deemed illegal.

“If plaintiffs prevail in this case, I hope to see the government keep it simple and ensure that retailers and importers get their tariff payments refunded swiftly and with as few hoops to jump through as possible,” Shapiro said.

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Ashley is a senior policy reporter for Ars Technica, dedicated to tracking social impacts of emerging policies and new technologies. She is a Chicago-based journalist with 20 years of experience.

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