Author name: Mike M.

why-incels-take-the-“blackpill”—and-why-we-should-care

Why incels take the “Blackpill”—and why we should care

incel culture, incels, manosphere, psychology, Science, sociology / /

“Don’t work for Soyciety”

A growing number of incels are NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training). That should concern us all.

The Netlix series Adolescence explores the roots of misogynistic subcultures. Credit: Netflix

The online incel (“involuntary celibate”) subculture is mostly known for its extreme rhetoric, primarily against women, sometimes erupting into violence. But a growing number of self-identified incels are using their ideology as an excuse for not working or studying. This could constitute a kind of coping mechanism to make sense of their failures—not just in romantic relationships but also in education and employment, according to a paper published in the journal Gender, Work, & Organization.

Contrary to how it’s often portrayed, the “manosphere,” as it is often called, is not a monolith. Those who embrace the “Redpill” ideology, for example, might insist that women control the “sexual marketplace” and are only interested in ultramasculine “Chads.” They champion self-improvement as a means to make themselves more masculine and successful, and hence (they believe) more attractive to women—or at least better able to manipulate women.

By contrast, the “Blackpilled” incel contingent is generally more nihilistic. These individuals reject the Redpill notion of alpha-male masculinity and the accompanying focus on self-improvement. They believe that dating and social success are entirely determined by one’s looks and/or genetics. Since there is nothing they can do to improve their chances with women or their lot in life, why even bother?

“People have a tendency to lump all these different groups together as the manosphere,” co-author AnnaRose Beckett-Herbert of McGill University told Ars. “One critique I have of the recent Netflix show Adolescence—which was well done overall—is they lump incels in with figures like Andrew Tate, as though it’s all interchangeable. There’s areas of overlap, like extreme misogyny, but there are really important distinctions. We have to be careful to make those distinctions because the kind of intervention or prevention efforts that we might direct towards the Redpill community versus the Blackpill community might be very different.”

Incels constitute a fairly small fraction of the manosphere, but the vast majority of incels appear to embrace the Blackpill ideology, per Beckett-Herbert. That nihilistic attitude can extend to any kind of participation in what incels term “Soyciety”—including educational attainment and employment. When that happens, such individuals are best described by the acronym NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training).

“It’s not that we have large swaths of young men that are falling into this rabbit hole,” said Beckett-Herbert. “Their ideology is pretty fringe, but we’re seeing the community grow, and we’re seeing the ideology spread. It used to be contained to romantic relationships and sex. Now we’re seeing this broader disengagement from society as a whole. We should all be concerned about that trend.”

The NEET trend is also tied to the broader cultural discourse on how boys and young men are struggling in contemporary society. While prior studies tended to focus on the misogynistic rhetoric and propensity for violence among incels, “I thought that the unemployment lens was interesting because it’s indicative of larger problems,” said Beckett-Herbert. “It’s important to remember that it’s not zero-sum. We can care about the well-being of women and girls and also acknowledge that young men are struggling, too. Those don’t have to be at odds.”

“Lie down and rot”

Beckett-Herbert and her advisor/co-author, McGill University sociologist Eran Shor, chose the incels.is platform as a data source for their study due to its ease of public access and relatively high traffic, with nearly 20,000 members. The pair used Python code to scrape 100 pages, amounting to around 10,000 discussion threads between October and December 2022. A pilot study revealed 10 keywords that appeared most frequently in those threads: “study,” “school,” “NEET,” “job,” “work,” “money,” “career,” “wage,” “employ,” and “rot.” (“They use the phrase ‘lie down and rot’ a lot,” said Beckett-Herbert.)

This allowed Beckett-Herbert and Shor to narrow their sample down to 516 threads with titles containing those keywords. They randomly selected a subset of 171 discussion threads for further study. That analysis yielded four main themes that dominated the discussion threads: political/ideological arguments about being NEET; boundary policing; perceived discrimination; and bullying and marginalization.

Roughly one-quarter of the total comments consisted of political or ideological arguments promoting being NEET, with most commenters advocating minimizing one’s contributions to society as much as possible. They suggested going on welfare, for instance, to “take back” from society, or declared they should be exempt from paying any taxes, as “compensation for our suffering.” About 25 percent—a vocal minority—pushed back on glorifying the NEET lifestyle and offered concrete suggestions for self-improvement. (“Go outside and try at least,” one user commented.)

Such pushback often led to boundary policing. Those who do pursue jobs or education run the risk of being dubbed “fakecels” and becoming alienated from the rest of the incel community. (“Don’t work for a society that hates you,” one user commented.) “There’s a lot of social psychological research on groupthink and group polarization that is relevant here,” said Beckett-Herbert. “A lot of these young men may not have friends in their real life. This community is often their one source of social connection. So the incel ideology becomes core to their identity: ‘I’m part of this community, and we don’t work. We are subhumans.'”

There were also frequent laments about being discriminated against for not being attractive (“lookism”), both romantically and professionally, as well as deep resentment of women’s increased presence in the workplace, deemed a threat to men’s own success. “They love to cherry-pick all these findings from psychology research [to support their position],” said Beckett-Herbert. For instance, “There is evidence that men who are short or not conventionally attractive are discriminated against in hiring. But there’s also a lot of evidence suggesting that this actually affects women more. Women who are overweight face a greater bias against them in hiring than men do, for example.”

Beckett-Herbert and Shor also found that about 15 percent of the comments in their sample concerned users’ experiences being harassed or bullied (usually by other men), their mental health challenges (anxiety, depression), and feeling estranged or ostracized at school or work—experiences that cemented their reluctance to work or engage in education or vocational training.

Many of these users also mentioned being autistic, in keeping with prior research showing a relatively high share of people with autism in incel communities. The authors were careful to clarify, however, that most people with autism “are not violent or hateful, nor do they identify as incels or hold explicitly misogynistic views,” they wrote. “Rather, autism, when combined with other mental health issues such as depression, anxiety, and hopelessness, may make young men more vulnerable to incel ideologies.”

There are always caveats. In this case, the study was limited to a single incel forum, which might not be broadly representative of similar discussions on other platforms. And there could be a bit of selection bias at play. Not every incel member may actively participate in discussion threads (lurkers) and non-NEET incels might be less likely to do so either because they have less free time or don’t wish to be dismissed as “fakecels.”However, Beckett-Herbert and Shor note that their findings are consistent with previous studies that suggest there are a disproportionately large number of NEETs within the incel community.

A pound of prevention

Is effective intervention even possible for members of the incel community, given their online echo chamber? Beckett-Herbert acknowledges that it is very difficult to break through to such people. “De-radicalization is a noble, worthy line of research,” she said. “But the existing evidence from that field of study suggests that prevention is easier and more effective than trying to pull these people out once they’re already in.” Potential strategies might include fostering better digital and media literacy, i.e., teaching kids to be cognizant of the content they’re consuming online. Exposure time is another key issue.

“A lot of these young people don’t have healthy outlets that are not in the digital world,” said Beckett-Herbert “They come home from school and spend hours and hours online. They’re lonely and isolated from real-world communities and structures. Some of these harmful ideologies might be downstream of these larger root causes. How can we help boys do better in school, feel better prepared for the labor market? How can we help them make more friends? How can we get them involved in real-world activities that will diminish their time spent online? I think that that can go a long way. Just condemning them or banning their spaces—that’s not a good long-term solution.”

While there are multiple well-publicized instances of self-identified incels committing violent acts—most notably Elliot Rodger, who killed six people in 2014—Beckett-Herbert emphasizes not losing sight of incels’ fundamental humanity. “We focus a lot on the misogyny, the potential for violence against women, and that is so important,” she said. “You will not hear me saying we should not focus on that. But we also should note that statistically, an incel is much more likely to commit suicide or be violent towards themselves than they are toward someone else. You can both condemn their ideology and find it abhorrent and also remember that we need to have empathy for these people.”

Many people—women especially—might find that a tall order, and Beckett-Herbert understands that reluctance. “I do understand people’s hesitancy to empathize with them, because it feels like you’re giving credence to their rhetoric,” she said. “But at the end of the day, they are human, and a lot of them are really struggling, marginalized people coming from pretty sad backgrounds. When you peruse their online world, it’s the most horrifying, angering misogyny right next to some of the saddest mental health, suicidal, low self-esteem stuff you’ve ever seen. I think humanizing them and having empathy is going to be foundational to any intervention efforts to reintegrate them. But it’s something I wrestle with a lot.”

Photo of Jennifer Ouellette

Jennifer is a senior writer at Ars Technica with a particular focus on where science meets culture, covering everything from physics and related interdisciplinary topics to her favorite films and TV series. Jennifer lives in Baltimore with her spouse, physicist Sean M. Carroll, and their two cats, Ariel and Caliban.

Why incels take the “Blackpill”—and why we should care Read More »

2025-chevrolet-corvette-zr1-first-drive:-engineered-for-insane-speed

2025 Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 first drive: Engineered for insane speed

car review, Cars, Chevrolet Corvette ZR1, First drive / /

Cooling for the ZR1 became an even higher priority, because the LT6 and LT7 employ extremely tight tolerances between the crankshaft and connecting rods, which mandates keeping the 5W-50 oil below 120° C (248° F) at all times. And the system simply works, as even on a hot and humid Texas day, I only noticed oil temperatures cresting above 104° C (220° F) occasionally.

The interior is better than any prior generation of Corvette, but it feels prosaic compared to the cockpits of its more exotic mid-engined rivals. Michael Teo Van Runkle

The hardtop convertible ZR1 lacks the split-engine venting and shoulder intakes, while cutting into headroom so much that I skipped out while wearing a helmet. Other journalists noticed a drop-off in performance for the convertibles, and probably more so than the mild weight gains of just about 100 lbs (45 kg) might suggest. Instead, temperatures probably came into play, as the ECU drew back timing and instead allowed mild overboost of 24–25 psi to compensate for the Texas day. Even so, an engineer admitted he thought the engine was probably down 5–10 percent on power.

The fact that I hit my highest-ever top speed despite the ZR1 potentially giving up somewhere between 53 to 106 hp (40–80 kW) only makes this Corvettes sound even more insane. But I essentially wound up driving the turbos, since the DCT’s gear ratios carry over from the Stingray and therefore drop out of peak power when shifting from second to third and third to fourth.

I suspect nothing short of an F1 racecar feels this fast on a circuit of this size. A track designed for corner exit speeds double my pace in the ZR1 helps explain why Chevrolet declined to set us loose on public roads behind the wheel.

A Corvette ZR1 parked by turn 1 at COTA.

We drove it on track—will owners cope with this much power on the street? Credit: Michael Teo Van Runkle

That’s a concern for potential buyers, though, and why the ZR1’s electronics undoubtedly ratchet back the insanity. Chevy still uses Bosch’s ninth-generation traction control, which debuted on C7 and operates on a 10-millisecond loop, even if the ABS runs at 5 milliseconds—while the ESC is at 20 milliseconds. I suspect this computerized nannying slowed me down a fair amount, in addition to the torque-by-gear restrictions in first and second that purposefully protect driveline components.

We’ve probably reached peak internal-combustion Corvette, which is something of a hint about the all-too-real question of where Chevy can go from here. If so, this car reaches a new level of unfathomable American ingenuity, combined with a newfound level of refinement and traction management that attempts to belie the undeniable absurdity to a minimal, arguably necessary, extent.

2025 Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 first drive: Engineered for insane speed Read More »

elon-musk-to-exit-government,-upset-that-trump-bill-undermines-doge’s-work

Elon Musk to exit government, upset that Trump bill undermines DOGE’s work

doge, elon musk, Policy / /

Last week, Musk posted that he was “back to spending 24/7 at work and sleeping in conference/server/factory rooms.”

Lawsuits against Musk, DOGE continue

Musk and the Trump administration are facing numerous lawsuits over the authority wielded by DOGE and the large spending cuts imposed by the new government entity. In one case filed by 14 states against Musk, DOGE, and Trump, a federal judge dismissed President Trump from the lawsuit on Tuesday but said the lawsuit can proceed against Musk and DOGE.

“States allege that President Trump is the only individual in the Executive Branch who resolves matters of greater significance than Musk,” US Judge Tanya Chutkan of the District of Columbia wrote. “They claim that Musk decides the continued existence of federal agencies, the employment terms for millions of federal employees, and federal funds allocated by grants, contracts, and loans.”

The defendants “unsuccessfully attempt to minimize Musk’s role, framing him as a mere advisor without any formal authority,” Chutkan wrote. She disputed the government’s characterization of special government employees, saying that special employees may qualify as officers under US law.

“Defendants may not circumvent the Appointments Clause by designating individuals as special government employees,” Chutkan wrote, concluding that “defendants appear to sanction unlimited Executive power, free from checks and balances, but the Constitution prohibits unilateral control over ‘official appointments’ by ‘dividing the power to appoint the principal federal offices… between the Executive and Legislative Branches.'”

It appears likely that DOGE will continue exercising its power in the Trump administration indefinitely, the judge’s ruling said. “States allege that Musk is DOGE’s leader,” Chutkan wrote. “The court finds that States have sufficiently pleaded that this position qualifies as ‘continuing and permanent, not occasional or temporary,’ The subsidiary DOGE Service Temporary Organization has a termination date of July 4, 2026, but there is no termination date for the overarching DOGE entity or its leader, suggesting permanence.”

Elon Musk to exit government, upset that Trump bill undermines DOGE’s work Read More »

china-extends-its-reach-into-the-solar-system-with-launch-of-asteroid-mission

China extends its reach into the Solar System with launch of asteroid mission

asteroids, china, launch, long march 3b, sample return, Science, solar system, Space, tianwen, tianwen 2 / /

Comet 311P/PanSTARRS was observed by the Hubble Space Telescope in 2013 with a set of six comet-like tails radiating from its main body. This object, also called P/2013 P5, is known as an active asteroid. Credit: NASA, ESA, and D. Jewitt (UCLA)

Tianwen-2’s mothership, with 11 scientific instruments, will commence the second phase of its mission after dropping off the asteroid specimens at Earth. The probe’s next journey will bring it near an enigma in the asteroid belt, named 311P/PanSTARRS, in the mid-2030s. This object is one in a rare class of objects known as active asteroids or main-belt comets, small worlds that have tails and comas like comets but loiter in orbits most commonly associated with asteroids. Tianwen-2 will be the first mission to see such an object up close.

Stepping into the Solar System

Until the last few years, China’s space program has primarily centered on the Moon as a destination for scientific exploration. The Moon remains the main target for China’s ambitions in space, with the goal of accomplishing a human lunar landing by 2030. But the country is looking farther afield, too.

With the Tianwen-1 mission in 2021, China became the second country to achieve a soft landing on Mars. After Tianwen-2, China will again go to Mars with the Tianwen-3 sample return mission, slated for launch in 2028.

Tianwen, which means “questions to heaven,” is the name given to China’s program of robotic Solar System exploration. Tianwen-3 has a chance to become the first mission to return pristine samples from Mars to Earth. At the same time, NASA’s plans for a Mars Sample Return mission are faltering.

China is looking at launching Tianwen-4 around 2029 to travel to Jupiter and enter orbit around Callisto, one of its four largest moons. In the 2030s, China’s roadmap includes a mission to return atmospheric samples from Venus to Earth, a Mars research station, and a probe to Neptune.

Meanwhile, NASA has sent spacecraft to study every planet in the Solar System and currently has spacecraft at or on the way to the Moon, Mars, Jupiter, a metal asteroid, and to interstellar space. Another US science mission, Dragonfly, is scheduled for launch in 2028 on a daring expedition to Saturn’s moon Titan.

But NASA’s science division is bracing for severe budget cuts proposed by President Donald Trump. In planetary science, the White House’s budget blueprint calls for canceling a joint US-European Mars Sample Return mission and several other projects, including the DAVINCI mission to Venus.

China extends its reach into the Solar System with launch of asteroid mission Read More »

we-now-have-a-good-idea-about-the-makeup-of-uranus’-atmosphere

We now have a good idea about the makeup of Uranus’ atmosphere

Science / /

Uranus, the seventh planet in the Solar System, located between Saturn and Neptune, has long been a mystery. But by analyzing observations made by NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope over a 20-year period, a research team from the University of Arizona and other institutions has provided new insights into the composition and dynamics of the planet’s atmosphere.

Information about Uranus is limited. What we know is that the planet is composed mainly of water and ammonia ice, its diameter is about 51,000 kilometers, about four times that of the Earth, and its mass is about 15 times greater than Earth’s. Uranus also has 13 rings and 28 satellites.

In January 1986, NASA’s Voyager 2 space probe successfully completed what has been, to date, the only exploration of the planet, conducting a flyby as part of its mission to study the outer planets of the Solar System.

Uranus in 1986

This image of Uranus was taken by NASA’s Voyager 2 space probe in January 1986.

This image of Uranus was taken by NASA’s Voyager 2 space probe in January 1986. Credit: NASA/JPL

But thanks to this new research, we now know a little more about this icy giant. According to the research, which assessed Hubble images taken between 2002 and 2022, the main components of Uranus’ atmosphere are hydrogen and helium, with a small amount of methane and very small amounts of water and ammonia. Uranus appears pale blue-green because methane absorbs the red component of sunlight.

This image of Uranus, taken by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, shows nine of the planet’s 28 satellites and its rings.

This image of Uranus, taken by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, shows nine of the planet’s 28 satellites and its rings. Credit: NASA/ESA/CSA/STSCI

The research has also shed light on the planet’s seasons.

Unlike all of the other planets in the Solar System, Uranus’ axis of rotation is almost parallel to its orbital plane. For this reason, Uranus is said to be orbiting in an “overturned” position, as shown in the picture below. It is hypothesized that this may be due to a collision with an Earth-sized object in the past.

Uranus orbiting the Sun. It can be seen that Uranus’ axis of rotation is almost parallel to its orbital plane.

Uranus orbiting the Sun. It can be seen that Uranus’ axis of rotation is almost parallel to its orbital plane. Credit: NASA/ESA/J. Feild (STSCI)

The planet’s orbital period is about 84 years, which means that, for a specific point on the surface, the period when the sun shines (some of spring, summer, and some of fall) lasts about 42 years, and the period when the sun does not shine (some of fall, winter, and some of spring) lasts for about 42 years as well. In this study, the research team spent 20 years observing the seasons.

We now have a good idea about the makeup of Uranus’ atmosphere Read More »

dating-roundup-#5:-opening-day

Dating Roundup #5: Opening Day

Dating / /

Previously: #1, #2, #3, #4.

Since we all know that dating apps are terrible, the wise person seeks to meet prospective dates in other ways, ideally in the physical world.

Alas, this has gotten more difficult. Dating apps and shifting norms mean it is considered less appropriate, and riskier, to approach strangers, especially with romantic intent, or to even ask people you know out on a date, which has a fat tail of life changing positive consequences.

People especially men are increasingly more afraid of rejection and other negative consequences, including a potential long tail of large negative consequences. Also people’s skills at doing this aren’t developing, which both decreases chances of success and increases risk. So a lot of this edition is about tackling those basic questions, especially risk, rejection and fear.

There’s also the question of how to be more hot and know roughly how hot you are, and what other traits also help your chances. And there’s the question of selection. You want to go after the targets worth going after, especially good particular matches.

  1. You’re Single Because Hello Human Resources.

  2. You’re Single Because You Don’t Meet Anyone’s Standards.

  3. You’re Single Because You Don’t Know How to Open.

  4. You’re Single Because You Never Open.

  5. You’re Single Because You Don’t Know How to Flirt.

  6. You’re Single Because You Won’t Wear the Fucking Hat.

  7. You’re Single Because You Don’t Focus On The People You Want.

  8. You’re Single Because You Choose the Wrong Hobbies.

  9. You’re Single Because You Friend Zone People.

  10. You’re Single Because You Won’t Go the Extra Mile.

  11. You’re Single Because You’re Overly Afraid of Highly Unlikely Consequences.

  12. You’re Single Because You’re Too Afraid of Rejection.

  13. You’re Single Because You’re Paralyzed by Fear.

  14. You’re Single Because You’re Not Hot Enough.

  15. You’re Single Because You Can’t Tell How Hot You Look.

  16. You’re Single Because You Have the Wrong Hairstyle.

  17. You’re Single Because You’re In the Wrong Place.

  18. You’re Single Because You Didn’t Hire a Matchmaker.

  19. You’re Single So Here’s the Lighter Side.

Not all approaches and opens are wanted, which is fine given the risk versus reward. Also it’s worth noting that this is actually a remarkably small amount of not being attracted to the approacher?

Alexander: I have updated this chart on the old article, because it was confusing some people.

As stated in the article, these responses were not mutually exclusive. 50% of women did not say that they didn’t want to be approached exclusively because a man was unattractive. Only 16% of the women who said they experienced an unwanted approach cited unattractiveness exclusively.

This was also not the full female sample – 34% of women did not have an unwanted approach experience at all.

I have added an UpSet plot to the article if you want to visualise the sets of responses. But what it basically boils down to is that 84% of women who had an unwanted approach experience cited something aside from a mere lack of attraction.

Remember, these are exclusively unwanted approaches.

Presumably, in the wanted approaches, the women was indeed attracted.

This still leaves the ‘there were other problems but you were sufficiently attractive that I disregarded them’ problem. Not getting any bonus points is already enough to make things tricky, you’ll need otherwise stronger circumstances. It does seem clear that men are far too worried about being insufficiently attractive to do approaches.

Big B (19.5m views): I hate when yall applaud men for doing the bare minimum.

Honey Badger Radio (20m views): Genuine question. What is the ‘bare minimum’ for women?

Punished Rose: 6’5”, blue eyes, still has all his hair, good job in position of power with many underlings, ubers me everywhere, buys me diamonds, kind to animals, wants 3-4 children, good relationship with mother, spontaneous and romantic, PhD with no corrections, homeowner.

[Here’s what you get in return from her, men!]

Aella: I think it’s less how exactly men have their stat points distributed, and more how many total stat points there are. Women will often tolerate dump stats if there’s enough perks to balance out other areas.

You have to notice the perks for them to count, which is tough on dating apps if the dump stat is too visible, but mostly yeah, and I think it’s true for everyone. Each person will usually have some particular actual dealbreaker-level requirements or at least very expensive places to miss, plus some things really do override everything else, but mostly everything is trade-offs.

Amit Kumar: Smile at cute strangers and shouted upon 😂

Blaine Anderson: I surveyed >13,000 single women last year and exactly 95% said they wish they were approached more often IRL by men.

If women *shoutwhen you approach, you’re doing something wrong ❤️

Poll of my friend Ben Daly’s Instagram following, which is virtually all single 18-34 yr old women in the U.S. and U.K.

For anyone trying to learn, I teach a program called Approach Academy (~$100).

I have no idea if Approach Academy is any good, and doubtless there are lots of free resources out there too. Either way, it’s an important skill to have, and if you are single, don’t want to be single and don’t have the skill it’s worth learning.

If you’re literally not trying at all, that’s definitely not going to work. Alas, from what I can tell Alexander is correct here, in that even the very spaces where the You Had One Job was ‘actually approach women’ are increasingly coming out firmly against the one thing that ever works, and moving from an agentic narrative where you can make it work to an anti-agentic one where you shouldn’t try.

Alexander: Of everything I have ever posted, nothing has received more pushback from the manosphere than pointing out that half of young men have not asked a woman on a date in the past year, and a quarter have never asked a woman on a date ever.

The “male loneliness crisis” is largely self-imposed.

That you must approach women and ask them on a date, assuming you do not want to be perpetually single, would be the most obvious and basic advice you would have been given on early pickup artistry or relationship advice forums.

When I write of the relationship advice becoming increasingly negative, this is what I mean. Instead of ascribing agency to men and giving them the most obvious and “actionable advice” (“you need to talk to women”), the entire space is littered with narrative excuses for why men cannot!

“But what about MeToo?”

“Women do not want to be approached.”

“Women only want a ‘Chad’ type.”

“Women are not good enough to approach.”

“It is not men’s fault—the entire fabric of society needs to change to make it easy for men to approach.”

Anti-agentic narratives. Excuses. None of these are “actionable advice.” No one telling you these things is giving you a “solution.” They are just complaining and want to vent their victimhood.

Occasionally the feedback I receive is, “You describe things well, but provide no advice.”

Probably true! I do not really make self-help content. Yet I do regularly tell you all the very basic things that work:

  1. You need to talk to women.

  2. You need exciting, social hobbies that put you in contact with women and that women like.

  3. You need to rid yourself of antisocial vices, hobbies, and habits.

  4. You need to hit the gym and lose weight.

  5. You need to fix your physical appearance.

You are all free to work the details of these things out however you please, but these are the basics that cover how you meet women and if you pass the initial bar of attraction. They are obvious and do not require you to know any hidden secrets or subscribe to any fringe ideological beliefs.

The manosphere overall, as well as individual subcultures within it like the Red Pill, have shifted from agentic messaging to anti-agentic messaging over time.

It used to be, “It’s really easy to put yourself in the top 10% of men.” Now you are much more likely to see lamentations that women only want the top 10% – and they are so unreasonable and unfair for that!

Narratives used to be primarily individualistic and agentic: you can self-improve and fundamentally change. You can get the results you want in life.

Now the narratives are collectivist and social: society is responsible for men’s romantic outcomes. They copy the language and paradigms of left-wing social justice movements. Men are victims – men are not at fault nor responsible for their own life trajectories. The only solution is a massive change to the culture, laws, and society at large.

Matthew Yglesias: We need industrial policy for asking girls out.

Do today’s young men know about negging? Peacocking? Do we need a Game Czar to address this crisis?

Matthew Yglesias: If you ask a bunch of girls out, some of them will go out with you, whereas if you don’t, none of them will.

As in, in order to open, you need to be there at all, and that’s the 80% for showing up.

Nick Gray: his is a message for single men that are tired of online dating

I made a post 6 months ago about what I should text a woman that I was going on a date with

The date was great. In fact we have spent almost every day since then together

Now she’s my girlfriend

Guys if you’re frustrated with online dating I have some advice

Delete your dating apps and start going out every single day

You need to the gym, go to the grocery store, go work from cafes

You need to try a new group fitness class every other day, go to yoga and pilates, and join meetups for things you’re interested in

Be someone who is out and about

Talk to strangers, make friendly conversation, add value, and don’t be sketchy

[continues but you can guess the rest, the central idea is ‘irl surface area.’]

Yet, despite knowing that fortune favors the bold, many continue not to ever try.

Julian: Today my dad asked me if I ever approach beautiful women on the street to ask them out. I told him that I’ve literally never done that, and I saw true sorrow in his eyes.

“You see dad there’s this thing called hinge, it’s a lot easier really, it’s not as scary.” 😢

Having a tweet go viral is actually almost never good. now nearly 2 million people know I am scared of talking to women.

Twitter when I have a cool idea about AI safety to share: 😴💤🛌🥱

Twitter when my dad implies I have no rizz: 👀‼️🚨

Implies? Flat out tells you. Or you flat out telling him. Do better.

Indeed, we seem to keep hearing stories like this reasonably often? It’s not this easy, but also it can be a lot easier than people think.

Val: How do people get girlfriends? I’m being serious.

Critter: A college friend of mine was single his whole life. He was getting depressed and asked for my advice. I told him to ask out 20 people on casual dates. He asked two; the second one became his girlfriend. It’s that simple.

“But no, I want to swipe from the bathroom and have a series of convoluted online conversations that go nowhere.” Okay, do that then. Enjoy.

My friend was average-looking, 5 feet 8 inches tall, and deaf, but keep enjoying your fantasy that you have it hard.

Nobody: Got a girlfriend once because I accidentally smiled and waved at her, thinking she was someone I knew.

Konrad Curze: I literally asked a coworker on a date once because I heard her talking about wanting to see a movie and not having a ride to the theater, so I just asked her if she wanted to go a bit before her shift ended. We’re not together anymore, but it really is that easy—just ask someone in person.

liberforce: I once talked to a complete stranger at the train station. She was a tourist in her first week in my country. After losing sight of each other, one year later we got married. We have been married for the past 10 years and have a 7-year-old son. Be polite. Be confident. Try.

Critter: “What is a low-key date?”

It’s a date that’s a small investment and easy to say yes to. Lunch this weekend. Studying together in the library. Getting coffee. Going to a local event.

Think of something you might say yes to if a friend asked, even if you… Do I ask friends/acquaintances?

Be careful; asking someone out can possibly damage your network of friends, employee relations, etc. I wouldn’t ask 20 coworkers out; you will get a reputation.

Only ask friends or coworkers if you have some confidence it’s a yes.

Asking strangers is cost-free, but we’re busy.

“Then who do I ask?”

I’ve gone on dates with waitresses (ask after their shift), Starbucks employees, and girls on the subway. If you’re attracted to someone, be cool and direct, and just ask.

“What do I say?”

Ask as if you were asking someone for the time or where the nearest gas station is.

“Hey, I think you’re really beautiful. Can I buy you lunch/coffee sometime this weekend?”

It’s *betterto chat them up first, but if you can’t, just ask.

“How do I avoid seeming creepy/awkward?”

This isn’t risk-free. Some may think you’re a creep, others will be flattered. Outcomes are hard to control; intent is what matters.

Try not to get too wound up; creepiness is a result of intensity. Timing matters, but just relax and ask.

Many such cases. When single, and it’s safe and appropriate, always be flirting.

Annie: this is why as a prolific slut I just flirt with any person up to my standards and escalate until I receive any sort of pushback.

That might actually be correct, if you’re good at noticing subtle pushback, at least within the realm of the deniable and until they clearly know you’re flirting. If they can’t tell you’re flirting, then you kind of aren’t flirting yet, so you’re probably fine to escalate a bit, repeat until they notice.

Online makes it even trickier, what even is flirting? It turns out Lolita’s likes here were on Instagram, where I am led to believe this is indeed how this works, whereas on Twitter the odds this is what is happening are lower – but yeah, DM her anyway if you’re interested.

The Catholic Engineer: Attention boys. This is how girls shoot their shot on Twitter. Take note.

Lolita: I just wanna let everyone know (since apparently this is everyone’s business now🤣) that he indeed texted me [on Instagram], he isn’t as [stupid] as men on twitter, thank God. ☝🏻😌

Divia: Tag yourself I’m the “I’m not sure how old you are” married person who follows and likes a few posts just because.

Linch: I feel someone calling themselves “Lolita” may have a non-standard opinion of good dating strategies, or norms.

Divida: lol yes ty I missed that part.

Ian Hines: I’m the guy who has apparently flirted with dozens of women without realizing it.

Andrew Rettek: By this standard a lot of unavailable women are flirting with me on Twitter.

Normie MacDonald: Something I routinely find myself telling people in regards to dating in relationships is that they have no reason to be creating these arbitrary meaningless ego saving rules for themselves. Ok congratulations you don’t “text first” you saved your imaginary dignity while the other girl gets an engagement ring

The dance matters. Ideally you want to do the minimum required to get an escalation in response, where that escalation will filter for further interest and skill. I would certainly try to do that first. But if it doesn’t work, and this wasn’t a marginal situation? Time to escalate anyway.

The deniability is not only key to the system working and enabling you to make moves you wouldn’t otherwise be able to make. It’s also fun, at least for many women.

Also, it’s essential. As in, you try to think of a counterexample, and you fail:

Emmett Shear: What is (flirting minus plausible deniability)?

Misha: “Hey there handsome.” Is flirtatious and undeniable.

As confirmed by Claude, there’s still plenty of plausible deniability there, and full uncertainty on how far you intend to go with it. Ambiguity and plausible deniability between ‘harmless fun’ flirting versus ‘actually going somewhere’ flirting is a large part of the deniability, and also the core mechanism.

Periodically we rediscover the classic tricks, which is half of what TikTok is good for. In this case, something called ‘sticky eyes,’ where you make eye contact until they make eye contact back, then act like you’re caught and look away. Then look at them, and this time when they match don’t look away, and often they’ll walk right to you.

I do not believe any of this below is how any of this worked in literal detail, but…

WoolyAI: That stupid fucking hat.

This is doing the rounds and, like all gender and feminist discourse, it’s fundamentally dishonest. You can read two dozen other restacks laying out the limitations of this article, all ignoring that she’s a freelance writer, ie poor, and she’s writing for clicks; hate the game, not the player.

I still cannot get over that stupid fucking hat. It worked.

Look, that hat worked. That stupid fucking hat got Mystery laid more than I’ve been laid in my entire life unless 90% of what was written in “The Game” is a lie. Women like the hat. Women slept with him over the hat. And we can’t be honest about it.

It worked on me. It worked on all of us. 20 effing years later that stupid hat is still the #1 image of PUAs and Mystery is still the most famous of them, not because of anything he did, but just because if you put that stupid fucking hat in a thumbnail, people will click on it because we can’t not pay attention to that stupid fucking hat.

That stupid fucking hat worked and I wouldn’t wear it and you wouldn’t wear it but it brought him more sex and fame than anyone reading this has ever got and we can’t be honest about it and that’s why the discourse never goes anywhere.

If you actually read the book, Mystery is an insanely broken individual but he lived a literal rockstar lifestyle because he was willing to wear that stupid fucking hat and I kinda envy him for it. Just the shameless “I want women, women want the hat, therefore I will wear the hat.”

But the discourse feels stuck because women are ashamed they like the stupid fucking hat and men would be ashamed to wear the stupid fucking hat so we all lie about it so we don’t have to live with the shame of who we are.

(Pictured: That fucking hat.)

The stupid fucking hat was successful for Mystery in particular, as it played into the rest of what he was doing, leading interactions down predictable paths he trained for in various ways, and that he figured out how to steer in the ways he wanted.

But also, yes, it was his willingness to wear the stupid fucking hat, if that’s what it took to make all that work. That doesn’t mean you should go out and wear your own literal stupid fucking hat, but… be willing, as needed, to wear the metaphorical stupid fucking hat. If that’s what it takes.

Cosmic Cowgirl: The only dating strategy worth your time is to be as weird as humanly possible and see who rocks with it

The best part abt this tweet is seeing all the people responding that the way they met their partners/spouses is by being weird ❤️ there is hope for us weirdos yet!

Not quite. You should be exactly as weird as you are. Being intentionally extra weird would backfire. But yes, you mostly want to avoid hiding your weird once you are finished ‘getting reps.’

Should you put your small painted war figurines in your profile? One woman says no but many men say yes.

Shoshana Weissmann: Hey men, please don’t put the small war figurines you’ve painted in your Hinge profiles. This does not help.

We will date you sometimes despite this, but…

Yes, they were well-painted. Please stop asking.

Jarvis: It can’t hurt.

Shoshana: No, Jarvis.

If you’re looking to maximize total opportunities, you definitely don’t put things like painted war figurines in your photo.

However they offer positive selection to the extent you consider the relevant selection positive, so it depends, and a balance must be struck. I would only include them if I really, really cared about war figurines.

Teach the debate: Andrew Rettek versus Razib Khan on letting your interest flags fly. Should you worry about most of the attractive women losing interest if you talk about space exploration, abstruse philosophy and existential risk? Only to the extent you’d be interested in them despite knowing they react that way. So gain, ideally, once you’ve got your reps in, no.

As usual, if you’re still on the steep part of the dating learning curve, one must first ‘get the reps’ before it wise to overly narrow one’s focus.

You can also make other life choices to increase your chances. If you are a furry, you might do well to go into nuclear engineering, if that otherwise interests you? At some point the doom loop cannot be stopped, might as well go with it.

Eneasz Brodski suggests to straight men: Look for a woman who likes men. As in, a woman who says outright that by default men are good and cool people to be around. He says this is rare, and thus not all that actionable. I think it’s not that rare.

I would say that the specific positive version could be hard to act on, but the generalized negative version seems like fine advice across the board and highly actionable. If someone actively dislikes people in your key reference classes, whichever reference classes those might be, then probably don’t date them. The more of your reference classes they actively like by default, the better.

The same principles are true for women seeking men, and the same is true for physical goals. You should care relatively little about general appeal, and care more about appeal to those you find appealing as long term partners.

Antunes: Dear women, We don’t want you with muscles. We want you slim, delicate and cute. Take notes.

The rich: Dear women, muscles are hot, and there are many fit gym rats who would love a workout partner. Appealing to the average man is a bad idea; better to appeal to a small group that is very interested in you (with favorable gender ratios).

Daniel: I still think he’s wrong about the average man not wanting a fit woman.

In particular, the men like Antues who actively mock anyone who disagrees on this? Turning them off actively is not a bug. It’s a feature.

Isabel: Question for women in their 30s, 40s, 50s, etc: what are women in their twenties not considering that they should be considering?

Mason: Waste zero time on men who don’t want the same things you want, you will not look back fondly on relationships built on the hope that someone else would change.

The original thread has much other advice, also of the standard variety. I would modify Mason’s note slightly, do not waste time on the chance someone else will change what they want. But of course there are other ways for time to be well spent.

On the flip side:

Girl explains why she does not like ‘extreme gym guy’ bodies, she wants the mechanic with real muscles in natural settings.

Freia: Every woman i talk to is like nooo too much muscle is weird and they’re imagining competition season mr. olympia in their head or something but every guy i talk to is like yeah i started lifting and all of a sudden women found me 10 times funnier.

This is an easy one.

  1. Up to a point more muscle is good.

  2. Too much ‘unnatural’ or ‘gym style’ muscle is weird.

  3. If you never do muscle poses you do not have too much such muscle.

  4. If you are musclephotomaxing, you may have too much muscle for other purposes.

Choose your fighter.

Rachel Lapides: The undergrad creative writing class I’m teaching has 19 girls and 1 boy.

I think a lot of you in the replies would benefit from a class or two.

Zina Sarif: Who will tell them?

Vers La Lune: This needs to be said. Reading is not an attractive hobby to women. Back in 2018ish I A/B tested it and hid my books and actively lied about not reading a book since college and it worked 10x better than honesty.

It’s attractive hobby “in theory” but most people don’t read shit anyway, maybe they read Literotica fairy smut or something but you’ll never see panties drier than if you reference David Foster Wallace or some history book or something.

The rest of that chart is fine. Knowing languages and instruments are absolutely the most attractive to them.

Robin Hanson: Would this result hold up in a larger randomized trial?

I think Vers is right about this. Reading is attractive in theory.

In practice, it is not unattractive. But that is a different thing. You need to have a hook that is attractive in practice.

Reading can and does help with that. Reading leads to knowledge and skills and being interesting, which are themselves attractive. You want to be readmaxing. But that, too, is a different thing.

When 98.2% of women said reading was ‘attractive’ in a binary choice, that was answering the wrong question. Associating with reading simply is not exciting. It does not offer a joint experience or a good time. It won’t work.

Whereas the other top activities represent skills and demonstrations of value and joint activities. So they’re great for this.

The flip side are the actively unattractive hobbies. Reading is not unattractive, it will almost never actively cost you points, but Magic, anime and crypto definitely will be highly unattractive and turn off a large percentage of women, if you force them to deal with those things front and center. If you don’t center them, my guess is they are like reading, they don’t end up counting much for or against you then.

Of course, there will be some women that does find almost any hobby attractive, and the positive selection as noted above is palpable. But you only get so many such filters, so choose carefully which ones you deploy. It’s not strictly limit one, but it’s close.

JD Vance gave up Magic: the Gathering because girls weren’t into it. I notice how much I dislike that reaction, but I understand it. It’s a real cost, so how much was he into casting a paper version of Yawgmoth’s Bargain, when he could instead get the same experience going to Yale Law School?

Liv Boeree points out that one place women can look for a good man is in their friend group, where you might already have some known-to-be-good men in your friend zone. And she can say that, because that this is how she met Igor. So she advises to make sure to take a second look at those guys at some point.

I’d add to that ‘because only you can make that move, they mostly can’t.’

We alas lack a good mechanism whereby people can attempt to be ‘unfriendzoned,’ or indicate their interest in being unfriendzoned, without risking destroying the friendship. There are obvious possible coordination mechanisms (e.g. to ensure that only reciprocal interest is revealed) but no way to get others to implement them. The rationalists have tried to fix this at least once, but I think that faded away even there.

Here’s a very different strategy, from Bryan Caplan, that we have discussed in prior episodes. Why would you, a man, even look for her, a woman, in America? Your hand in marriage is a green card easily worth six figures and you’re going to waste that on someone who already lives here? When you could instead be (in relative terms) instantly super high status to boot?

His answer is adverse selection. You have to worry the woman does not actually like you. He does not discuss strategies to minimize this risk, such as avoiding services for women actively seeking such arrangements.

You want to seek the women who are not actively seeking for you to seek them. Tricky.

The other obvious problems are logistics and cultural compatibility. And also, as one commenter warns, how you look to her from afar might not be a good prediction of how you look to her once she arrives.

Mason: I don’t have a big problem with passport brokers, to be honest.

I get the sense that most of them are just average men who want to settle down after some bad luck in love and are very excited, and naive, about encountering a pool of young women who want to do that quickly.

I’d guess that about 90 percent of the time there isn’t anything overtly political or misogynistic about it, even if there are a number of reasons it may not be a good idea.

The perhaps 10 percent who see themselves as actively snubbing Western women who are too damaged to love are, yes, distasteful.

But so are the largely female onlookers who seem, more than anything, angry at the idea of an average-looking, average-earning man getting someone “out of his league.”

If there’s something disturbingly transactional about dating women from poorer countries online, there’s an equally economic paradigm implicit in the idea that two people can’t truly love each other unless they’re matched on social class and relative status.

I think the important problems are entirely practical issues of logistics, cultural distance and adverse selection. Those are big problems, and reason most people should choose different strategies.

‘Could’ backfire massively and ruin your life or career is not ‘could plausibly’ or ‘is likely to’ but if you don’t know that, it will have the same impact on your decisions.

Air Katakana: We need to talk about the real reason no one is getting married: western society has gone so woke that a man showing any interest in a woman in any situation could lead to his career and life being ruined. The only place you can even feasibly meet someone now is via dating apps.

Harvey Michael Pratt: Like seriously who are these people who don’t know how to express romantic interest without seeming threatening I’ve heard this one over and over and just don’t get it.

Misha: It’s not just about seeming threatening, I think it’s about the distribution of outcomes feeling like it’s net negative.

Imagine in the past it was something like

Every time you hit on someone, roll a d20. On a 1, she slaps you. On a 16 or higher, you get a date.

Now, it’s more like

On a 1 you get fired, on a 2-5 you get mocked or have a really awkward time, on a 20 you get a date.

Now obviously, all these numbers are fake and the real numbers are probably something else.

But on a visceral level it’s hard to believe in the real numbers, and our expectation of the risk/reward of interacting in certain ways is influenced by our social environments.

I think this is particularly pernicious for guys who haven’t been in relationships because they have no direct experience of positive outcomes, they only have negative outcomes and stories you see about other people’s negative outcomes are more viral.

Even if we round down the risk of getting canceled/mocked/fired to zero (which I think is probably correct) you can still expect to be rejected a ton of times before you get a relationship, which is extremely discouraging.

I do think part of the problem is overromanticizing of the past though. You’re much more likely for various reasons to hear about all the relationships that came before instead of the people who died alone. I don’t know if it was ever actually easy to get married.

My understanding is that sufficiently far in the past, asking was actually deadly. You risked violence, including deadly violence, or exile. You indeed had to be very careful.

Then there was a period where you were much more free to do whatever you wanted. You really could view the downside mostly as ‘you get slapped,’ which is fine even if the odds are substantially worse than above.

Now things have swung back somewhat. The tail risk is small but it’s there. And the reports are among the sufficiently young that many think trying to date people you actually know Just Isn’t Done, except of course when it is anyway.

I also presume, given other conditions, that we are now trending back down on the risks-other-than-rejection of asking front.

Partly of course it is a skill issue.

The rejection part sucks, too, of course. But you can try to have it suck less?

One of the most important dating skills is learning to handle and not fear rejection.

Rudy Julliani: This is worse than a gunshot to the head.

Allie: This type of rejection is a super normal part of dating and was delivered about as politely as it could’ve been.

Zoomers are so emotionally strung out that this kind of thing feels catastrophic when it should just be “aww darn, I had high hopes for that one.”

Shoshana: dude fuck what I’d give for men to be this adult and straightforward!

Allie: Half the time people just ghost these days!

The replies are full of ‘at least she was honest and did not ghost you.’

  1. So first of all, wow those are low standards.

  2. We don’t actually know she was honest, only that you can safely move on.

  3. I do totally see how ‘you did nothing wrong’ can be worse than a ‘you suck.’

  4. But seriously, you need to be able to take this one in stride. One date.

Being unusually averse to rejection, as Robin Hanson reports here, really sucks and is something one should work to change, as it is highly destructive of opportunity, and the aversion mostly lacks grounding in or correlation to any consequences beyond the pain of the rejection.

Robin Hanson: I’m unusually averse to rejection. Some see that as irrational; I should get over. I guess as they don’t think it makes sense to have preferences directly over such a complex thing; prefs should be on simpler outcomes. But how do I tell which outcomes are okay to matter?

Zvi: It’s not simple, its terminal outcomes (final goods) versus signals for how things are going (learning feedback systems and intermediate goods and correlations with ancestral Env. dangers, etc)?

You know what actually feels great?

When you ask, and you get turned down, and you realize you played correctly and that there’s no actual price to getting a no except that you can’t directly try again.

Nothing was lost, since they weren’t into you anyway. Indeed you got valuable experience and information, and you helped conquer your fears and build good habits.

That includes looking back afterwards. Indeed, I’m actively happy, looking back, with the shots I did take, that missed, as opposed to the 100% of shots that I didn’t take. Many of those, I do regret.

Such a strange question to have to even ask, when you think about it: Is having to reject others even worse? Some people actually say it is?

It’s not the common sentiment, but it’s there.

Kali Karmilla: The most depressing part of dating apps isn’t even getting rejected. It’s having to reject so many people. They put themselves out there, asking for someone to care for them, and you have to be like, “Not my type” a hundred times in a row. Makes me feel evil, honestly.

I don’t think the human mind was built to realize that so many people are lonely at one time, and it certainly wasn’t built to see that and react with indifference (swipe left, and they stop existing). I do not know, man; it’s just sad. I wish I were frozen in ice like a cartoon caveman.

Me: It feels like dating apps are asking me to dehumanize other people.

This person: It’s okay because people are just like commodities, and the apps are just digital marketplaces. 👍

Brother, I never want to be like you in my life.

If you reject someone in the swiping stage, and you feel evil about it, don’t. It’s unfortunate that you need to be doing this rather than the algorithm handling it, but it’s no different than being at the club with 100 other people and ignoring most of them. You’re being fooled by having the choices be one at a time and highlighted.

Of course so many people are lonely at one time. There are so many people.

If you reject someone after a match, then that is like actually rejecting them, so yes treat them like a real person with actual feelings, but everyone involved signed up for this, and stringing things along when you don’t want to be there or keep talking to them is not better. If you can’t get there with someone, tell them that, and send them home.

Anything else is cruel, not kind.

Tracing Woods: Worse than this, I think, is the occasional decision not to immediately reject someone you should have, playing with their heart a bit on the way to rejection. People expose their hearts incredibly quickly while dating, and it’s easy to stumble into hurting someone.

My worst moments when dating, looking back, were when I went on a first date with someone who was clearly desperate for an affection I could not honestly provide. Everyone wants to be loved, but nobody wants to be pity-dated.

Of all the lessons of The Bachelor, this might be the biggest one, to not string people along, you see this on various similar shows. The candidates who are rejected early mostly shrug. Some are hit hard, but not that hard. The farther along they go, the worse it gets, also much time is wasted.

Same goes in real life. If you know you must reject, mostly the sooner and clearer the better, with the least interaction beforehand. It will suck less, for both of you.

I do admit that sometimes the person you reject does not make it easy on you, including those who don’t accept it.

Holly Elmore: Having people not accept the rejection feels like having to strangle them or walking away and letting them bleed out. It’s way more intense than any one instance of being swiped left on or hearing “no”.

Yes, of course having to tell people no sucks. Having to dump someone sucks a lot.

But it’s still way better than getting dumped when you didn’t want to be.

Allie: A lot of the best things in life fall into the “scary but worth it” category

– Leaving home

– Falling in love

– Driving

– Buying a house

– Marriage

– Children

– Travel

We used to focus on the “worth it” aspect, now we hyper focus on the “scary” and we’re paralyzed by the fear

Shoshana Weissman: Damn straight. Lotta people paralyzed by fear of doing normal good things that all involve some risk but lots of payoff.

Yep. Normal good things are scary. You have to do them anyway.

The other stuff matters, but hey, it couldn’t hurt.

Here is a chart of how men and women said they viewed various beauty strategies. Full article here.

Alexander: Revisiting the original list, we also see very strong agreement between men and women – both men and women know that these things aren’t actually attractive to men!

It turns out that what is attractive essentially falls into two categories: “don’t be fat” and “basic grooming.”

As a woman you need to not be overweight, work out, shave, and have nice teeth – all of which is just as true for men.

I mostly believe this list. My guess is ‘dye your hair blonde’ is underrated, because they are asking in a context where you know and are thinking about the fact that the color is fake and that you’re ‘being fooled,’ which is not real world conditions, and I predict what is likely a smaller similar miscalibration for breast implants.

Women were highly unsuccessful in attempting to pick photos to look hotter.

Aella: the actual finding (after paranoid checking against dumb mistakes): I had women submit an “average” photo of themselves, and a photo of them “at their best,” total n=102.

Men rated the “at their best” photos about 0.3/10 points hotter than the “average” photos. But there was pretty decent variance.

About a third of women had their “hotter” photos rated either equal to or worse than their “average” photo.

Women were also highly unsuccessful at knowing how hot men would think they are.

Here is the full post. One way to make people less biased is to ask them how they compare to others of the same gender, another is to ask people who is in their league.

The more unattractive you were, the more ‘delusional’ you were, as in your estimate was too high by a higher margin. I don’t buy Aella’s explanation for this, though, because I don’t think you need it – this result is kind of mathematically inevitable, once you accept everyone is overestimating.

And wow, loss aversion is a thing here:

My followers (incomes $30k-$300k) would, on average, pay $12,517 (median $3k) to gain 1 point of attractiveness.

They would pay on average $94,083 (median $10k) to avoid losing 1 point of attractiveness. (n=462)

Counter to my prediction, there was basically no correlation between how hot someone rated themselves as, and the amount they would pay to gain a point or avoid losing a point.

And also, people say they’d pay more to be 6/10 than 10/10, I presume they’re confused.

Only paying $12k for a permanent extra point of attractiveness, were it for sale, is insane. Go into debt if you have to, as they say. You’ll get it back plus extra purely in higher earnings from lookism on the job. If you can do it multiple times, keep hitting that button (and if they let you go above 10, do that and then go to Hollywood!).

At $94k the trade stops being obvious for those on the lower end of the income spectrum, but if you can afford it this still seems like quite the steal, as many times as they’ll sell it to you.

(I’d be a little scared to know what happens beyond 10, but you bet that if it was for sale I would find out.)

Aella runs the ‘which AI faces are hot according to the opposite gender’ test with male faces, and reports the results. Male average ratings for AI-generated female faces clustered around 5.5 then fell off sharply with a slightly longer left than right tail, whereas female ratings of male AI faces averaged about 4.7 and had a longer right tail that died suddenly.

The patterns as you go from 1 up to 9 on the normalized hotness scale are very clear, especially at the top, where there is clearly one top look. Can you pull it off?

Emmett Shear: Percentage reporting yes on experiencing “god mode”, according to my poll.

SF: women 50%, men 28%

NYC: women 43%, men 67%

Other: women 56%, men 37%

It turns out SF is just about normal for women in this metric and varies relatively little, the main story is SF sucks for men lol.

The main story of San Francisco is that it is a rough place all around, with only 39% god mode, versus 46% for those in neither NYC nor SF. The men are 9% less likely to report ‘god mode’ and the women are 6% less likely, which is within the margin of error here. Whereas New York has 55% god mode, which is much better than 46%, and a major slant towards men.

Note that this is a stable equilibrium, because in their system one partner must pay but not both for a match to occur:

Jake Kozloski (Keeper): Single women are typically surprised to learn that 85% of our paying matchmaking clients are men. They often assume men aren’t interested in commitment.

Cody Zervas (Keeper): Men assume the platform is mostly men and women assume it’s mostly women. Both are surprised to hear we have the other.

Jake Kozloski: Yes on the flip side our total pool is 80% women which tends to surprise men who are used to the terrible ratios on dating apps.

It makes sense that men are more likely to pay for such a service, knowing that women won’t pay for it, and also that they have more ability to pay and can feel less bad about doing so. They have to pay.

It then makes sense that women are more likely to be willing to sign up for free, since many men already paid. And indeed, you could argue that they’re better off not paying. Who wants to match with the guys who signed up for Keeper… for free?

Thus the ultimate version of the guy picking up the check.

And as a result, the women greatly outnumber the men, because it’s a lot more attractive to sign up for free. Which in turn makes it more attractive for men to pay.

Some very bad pickup lines.

Another swing and a miss.

A bold move.

Finally a version you can trust.

Discussion about this post

Dating Roundup #5: Opening Day Read More »

after-mr.-deepfakes-shut-down-forever,-one-creator-could-face-a-$450k-fine

After Mr. Deepfakes shut down forever, one creator could face a $450K fine

AI, australia, deepfake porn, Deepfakes, defamation, nudify apps, Policy, take it down act / /

“Get an arrest warrant if you think you are right,” Rotondo reportedly told officials prior to the sanctions hearing, the Brisbane Times reported.

Later, in front of the judge, he unsuccessfully argued that he didn’t intend to out his victims by email. He claimed he didn’t know the court order was attached to the email or that it contained his victims’ names, The Guardian reported.

“The email I received had more than 80 pages of writing,” Rotondo said. “I didn’t read all the pages. I just forwarded the email.”

Eventually, Rotondo gave police his passwords to delete the images posted on Mr. Deepfakes. But the judge noted that Rotondo appeared resistant to removing deepfakes and continued creating an unknown number of deepfakes—which may include further charges from Queensland police that he possibly targeted “a number” of facilities and businesses on the day he allegedly hit the high school. He perhaps was motivated to leave the images online, as toxic Mr. Deepfakes uploaders could earn as much as $1,500 for convincing non-consensual deepfakes of public figures.

“The history of the matter suggests that, were he still at liberty and perhaps in another country, he would not have been so accommodating,” Derrington said.

Australia seeks to end “incalculable devastation”

Governments globally are grappling with a stark rise in non-consensual deepfake porn, with an ever-widening lens that targets not just the people who create and share images or the sites that host and sell them, but also the social media platforms that don’t catch and delete the harmful content. Earlier this month, the US passed a law threatening heavy fines and prison time for platforms that don’t remove the images when they’re reported. Under that law, the Take It Down Act, Wired reported that platforms risk roughly $50,000 in penalties per violation if deepfakes aren’t removed within 48 hours of receiving a report.

In Australia, Inman Grant wants to find a way to end the “lingering and incalculable devastation” that she said predominantly female victims must endure because it’s “shockingly” free and easy to use “thousands of open-source AI apps” to make deepfake porn.

Because Rotondo seems to represent the kind of unapologetic repeat deepfaker who digs his heels in to defend his AI-generated fake sex images, Inman Grant asked for the maximum penalties on Monday. The eSafety commission’s spokesperson told The Guardian that the request “reflected the seriousness of the breaches” and “the significant impacts on the women targeted.”

“The penalty will deter others from engaging in such harmful conduct,” the spokesperson said.

After Mr. Deepfakes shut down forever, one creator could face a $450K fine Read More »

f1-in-monaco:-no-one-has-ever-gone-faster-than-that

F1 in Monaco: No one has ever gone faster than that

Cars, F1, Formula 1, monaco, racing / /

The principality of Monaco is perhaps the least suitable place on the Formula 1 calendar to hold a Grand Prix. A pirate cove turned tax haven nestled between France and Italy at the foot of the Alps-Maritimes, it has also been home to Grand Prix racing since 1929, predating the actual Formula 1 world championship by two decades. The track is short, tight, and perhaps best described as riding a bicycle around your living room. It doesn’t even race well, for the barrier-lined streets are too narrow for the too-big, too-heavy cars of the 21st century. And yet, it’s F1’s crown jewel.

Despite the location’s many drawbacks, there’s something magical about racing in Monaco that almost defies explanation. The real magic happens on Saturday, when the drivers compete against each other to set the fastest lap. With overtaking as difficult as it is here, qualifying is everything, determining the order everyone lines up in, and more than likely, finishes.

Coverage of the Monaco Grand Prix is now filmed in vivid 4k, and it has never looked better. I’m a real fan of the static top-down camera that’s like a real-time Apple TV screensaver.

Nico Hulkenberg of Germany drives the (27) Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber C45 Ferrari during the Formula 1 TAG Heuer Gran Premio di Monaco 2025 at Circuit de Monaco in Monaco on May 25, 2025.

The cars need special steering racks to be able to negotiate what’s now called the Fairmont hairpin. Credit: Alessio Morgese/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Although native-Monegasque Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc tried to temper expectations for the weekend, the Ferraris were in a good place in Monaco. With no fast corners, the team could run the car low to the ground without risking a penalty, and this year’s car is very good at low-speed corners, of which Monaco has plenty.

A 10th of a second separated comfortably being in Q2 from being relegated to the last couple of rows in the grid, and a very long Sunday. Mercedes’ new teenage protegé, Kimi Antonelli, failed to progress from Q1, spinning in the swimming pool chicane. Unlike Michael Schumacher in 2006, Antonelli didn’t do it on purpose, but he did bring out a red flag. His teammate George Russell similarly brought a halt to Q2 when he coasted a third of the way around the circuit before coming to a stop in the middle of the tunnel, requiring marshals to push him all the way down to turn 10.

F1 in Monaco: No one has ever gone faster than that Read More »

feds-charge-16-russians-allegedly-tied-to-botnets-used-in-cyberattacks-and-spying

Feds charge 16 Russians allegedly tied to botnets used in cyberattacks and spying

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The hacker ecosystem in Russia, more than perhaps anywhere else in the world, has long blurred the lines between cybercrime, state-sponsored cyberwarfare, and espionage. Now an indictment of a group of Russian nationals and the takedown of their sprawling botnet offers the clearest example in years of how a single malware operation allegedly enabled hacking operations as varied as ransomware, wartime cyberattacks in Ukraine, and spying against foreign governments.

The US Department of Justice today announced criminal charges today against 16 individuals law enforcement authorities have linked to a malware operation known as DanaBot, which according to a complaint infected at least 300,000 machines around the world. The DOJ’s announcement of the charges describes the group as “Russia-based,” and names two of the suspects, Aleksandr Stepanov and Artem Aleksandrovich Kalinkin, as living in Novosibirsk, Russia. Five other suspects are named in the indictment, while another nine are identified only by their pseudonyms. In addition to those charges, the Justice Department says the Defense Criminal Investigative Service (DCIS)—a criminal investigation arm of the Department of Defense—carried out seizures of DanaBot infrastructure around the world, including in the US.

Aside from alleging how DanaBot was used in for-profit criminal hacking, the indictment also makes a rarer claim—it describes how a second variant of the malware it says was used in espionage against military, government, and NGO targets. “Pervasive malware like DanaBot harms hundreds of thousands of victims around the world, including sensitive military, diplomatic, and government entities, and causes many millions of dollars in losses,” US attorney Bill Essayli wrote in a statement.

Since 2018, DanaBot—described in the criminal complaint as “incredibly invasive malware”—has infected millions of computers around the world, initially as a banking trojan designed to steal directly from those PCs’ owners with modular features designed for credit card and cryptocurrency theft. Because its creators allegedly sold it in an “affiliate” model that made it available to other hacker groups for $3,000 to $4,000 a month, however, it was soon used as a tool to install different forms of malware in a broad array of operations, including ransomware. Its targets, too, quickly spread from initial victims in Ukraine, Poland, Italy, Germany, Austria, and Australia to US and Canadian financial institutions, according to an analysis of the operation by cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike.

Feds charge 16 Russians allegedly tied to botnets used in cyberattacks and spying Read More »

have-we-finally-solved-mystery-of-magnetic-moon-rocks?

Have we finally solved mystery of magnetic moon rocks?

asteroids, astrophysics, core dynamo, geology, magnetism, moon rocks, paleomagnetism, Science, the Moon / /

NASA’s Apollo missions brought back moon rock samples for scientists to study. We’ve learned a great deal over the ensuing decades, but one enduring mystery remains. Many of those lunar samples show signs of exposure to strong magnetic fields comparable to Earth’s, yet the Moon doesn’t have such a field today. So, how did the moon rocks get their magnetism?

There have been many attempts to explain this anomaly. The latest comes from MIT scientists, who argue in a new paper published in the journal Science Advances that a large asteroid impact briefly boosted the Moon’s early weak magnetic field—and that this spike is what is recorded in some lunar samples.

Evidence gleaned from orbiting spacecraft observations, as well as results announced earlier this year from China’s Chang’e 5 and Chang’e 6 missions, is largely consistent with the existence of at least a weak magnetic field on the early Moon. But where did this field come from? These usually form in planetary bodies as a result of a dynamo, in which molten metals in the core start to convect thanks to slowly dissipating heat. The problem is that the early Moon’s small core had a mantle that wasn’t much cooler than its core, so there would not have been significant convection to produce a sufficiently strong dynamo.

There have been proposed hypotheses as to how the Moon could have developed a core dynamo. For instance, a 2022 analysis suggested that in the first billion years, when the Moon was covered in molten rock, giant rocks formed as the magma cooled and solidified. Denser minerals sank to the core while lighter ones formed a crust.

Over time, the authors argued, a titanium layer crystallized just beneath the surface, and because it was denser than lighter minerals just beneath, that layer eventually broke into small blobs and sank through the mantle (gravitational overturn). The temperature difference between the cooler sinking rocks and the hotter core generated convection, creating intermittently strong magnetic fields—thus explaining why some rocks have that magnetic signature and others don’t.

Or perhaps there is no need for the presence of a dynamo-driven magnetic field at all. For instance, the authors of a 2021 study thought earlier analyses of lunar samples may have been altered during the process. They re-examined samples from the 1972 Apollo 16 mission using CO2 lasers to heat them, thus avoiding any alteration of the magnetic carriers. They concluded that any magnetic signatures in those samples could be explained by the impact of meteorites or comets hitting the Moon.

Have we finally solved mystery of magnetic moon rocks? Read More »

musk’s-doge-used-meta’s-llama-2—not-grok—for-gov’t-slashing,-report-says

Musk’s DOGE used Meta’s Llama 2—not Grok—for gov’t slashing, report says

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Why didn’t DOGE use Grok?

It seems that Grok, Musk’s AI model, wasn’t available for DOGE’s task because it was only available as a proprietary model in January. Moving forward, DOGE may rely more frequently on Grok, Wired reported, as Microsoft announced it would start hosting xAI’s Grok 3 models in its Azure AI Foundry this week, The Verge reported, which opens the models up for more uses.

In their letter, lawmakers urged Vought to investigate Musk’s conflicts of interest, while warning of potential data breaches and declaring that AI, as DOGE had used it, was not ready for government.

“Without proper protections, feeding sensitive data into an AI system puts it into the possession of a system’s operator—a massive breach of public and employee trust and an increase in cybersecurity risks surrounding that data,” lawmakers argued. “Generative AI models also frequently make errors and show significant biases—the technology simply is not ready for use in high-risk decision-making without proper vetting, transparency, oversight, and guardrails in place.”

Although Wired’s report seems to confirm that DOGE did not send sensitive data from the “Fork in the Road” emails to an external source, lawmakers want much more vetting of AI systems to deter “the risk of sharing personally identifiable or otherwise sensitive information with the AI model deployers.”

A seeming fear is that Musk may start using his own models more, benefiting from government data his competitors cannot access, while potentially putting that data at risk of a breach. They’re hoping that DOGE will be forced to unplug all its AI systems, but Vought seems more aligned with DOGE, writing in his AI guidance for federal use that “agencies must remove barriers to innovation and provide the best value for the taxpayer.”

“While we support the federal government integrating new, approved AI technologies that can improve efficiency or efficacy, we cannot sacrifice security, privacy, and appropriate use standards when interacting with federal data,” their letter said. “We also cannot condone use of AI systems, often known for hallucinations and bias, in decisions regarding termination of federal employment or federal funding without sufficient transparency and oversight of those models—the risk of losing talent and critical research because of flawed technology or flawed uses of such technology is simply too high.”

Musk’s DOGE used Meta’s Llama 2—not Grok—for gov’t slashing, report says Read More »

gouach-wants-you-to-insert-and-pluck-the-cells-from-its-infinite-e-bike-battery

Gouach wants you to insert and pluck the cells from its Infinite e-bike battery

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“It was really a setback for the company [Gouach] at the time,” Vallette said. “But we knew that the technology itself was good, so we designed our own casing.” Gouach’s casing is now rated IP67, Vallette said, and meets UL 2271 standards.

Gouach’s video demonstrating its battery case’s fire resistance.

Unexpected resistance

There are three avenues for selling the Infinite Battery, as Vallette sees it. One is working with e-bike makers to incorporate Gouach’s tech. Another is targeting e-bike owners and small bike shops who, this far into e-bikes’ history, might be dealing with dead batteries. And then there are folks looking to build their own e-bikes.

The Infinite Battery will be made available in 36 V and 48 V builds, and Gouach’s app promises to help owners connect it to a wide variety of bikes. Actually fitting the battery case onto your bike is a different matter. Some bikes can accommodate the Gouach kit where their current battery sits, while others may end up mounting to a rack, or through creative, but hopefully secure, frame attachments.

One of the biggest compatibility challenges, Vallette said, was finding a way to work with Bosch’s mid-drive motors. The communications between a Bosch motor and battery are encrypted; after “a serious effort,” Gouach’s app and battery should work with them, Vallette said.

Gouach, having raised more than $220,000 on crowdfunding platform Indiegogo from about 500 backers, and $3.5 million in venture funding, is getting close to offering the batteries through its own storefront. Gouach’s roadmap puts them in mass production at the moment, with assorted bugs, certifications, and other matters to clear. EU-based backers should get their kits in June, with the US, and an open online store, to follow, barring whatever happens next in international trade. Vallette said in mid-May that the US’s momentary 145 percent tariffs on Chinese imports disrupted their plans, but work was underway.

If nothing else, Gouach’s DIY kit shows that a different way of thinking about e-bike batteries—as assemblages, not huge all-in-one consumables—is possible.

Gouach wants you to insert and pluck the cells from its Infinite e-bike battery Read More »