decision making

what-ice-fishing-can-teach-us-about-making-foraging-decisions

What ice fishing can teach us about making foraging decisions

Ice fishing is a longstanding tradition in Nordic countries, with competitions proving especially popular. Those competitions can also tell scientists something about how social cues influence how we make foraging decisions, according to a new paper published in the journal Science.

Humans are natural foragers in even the most extreme habitats, digging up tubers in the tropics, gathering mushrooms, picking berries, hunting seals in the Arctic, and fishing to meet our dietary needs. Human foraging is sufficiently complex that scientists believe that meeting so many diverse challenges helped our species develop memory, navigational abilities, social learning skills, and similar advanced cognitive functions.

Researchers are interested in this question not just because it could help refine existing theories of social decision-making, but also could improve predictions about how different groups of humans might respond and adapt to changes in their environment. Per the authors, prior research in this area has tended to focus on solitary foragers operating in a social vacuum. And even when studying social foraging decisions, it’s typically done using computational modeling and/or in the laboratory.

“We wanted to get out of the lab,” said co-author Ralf Kurvers of Max Planck Institute for Human Development and TU Berlin. “The methods commonly used in cognitive psychology are difficult to scale to large, real-world social contexts. Instead, we took inspiration from studies of animal collective behavior, which routinely use cameras to automatically record behavior and GPS to provide continuous movement data for large groups of animals.”

Kurvers et al. organized 10 three-hour ice-fishing competitions on 10 lakes in eastern Finland for their study, with 74 experienced ice fishers participating. Each ice fisher wore a GPS tracker and a head-mounted camera so that the researchers could capture real-time data on their movements, interactions, and how successful they were in their fishing attempts. All told, they recorded over 16,000 individual decisions specifically about location choice and when to change locations. That data was then compared to the team’s computational cognitive models and agent-based simulations.

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Army general says he’s using AI to improve “decision-making”

Last month, OpenAI published a usage study showing that nearly 15 percent of work-related conversations on ChatGPT had to deal with “making decisions and solving problems.” Now comes word that at least one high-level member of the US military is using LLMs for the same purpose.

At the Association of the US Army Conference in Washington, DC, this week, Maj. Gen. William “Hank” Taylor reportedly said that “Chat and I are really close lately,” using a distressingly familiar diminutive nickname to refer to an unspecified AI chatbot. “AI is one thing that, as a commander, it’s been very, very interesting for me.”

Military-focused news site DefenseScoop reports that Taylor told a roundtable group of reporters that he and the Eighth Army he commands out of South Korea are “regularly using” AI to modernize their predictive analysis for logistical planning and operational purposes. That is helpful for paperwork tasks like “just being able to write our weekly reports and things,” Taylor said, but it also aids in informing their overall direction.

“One of the things that recently I’ve been personally working on with my soldiers is decision-making—individual decision-making,” Taylor said. “And how [we make decisions] in our own individual life, when we make decisions, it’s important. So, that’s something I’ve been asking and trying to build models to help all of us. Especially, [on] how do I make decisions, personal decisions, right—that affect not only me, but my organization and overall readiness?”

That’s still a far cry from the Terminator vision of autonomous AI weapon systems that take lethal decisions out of human hands. Still, using LLMs for military decision-making might give pause to anyone familiar with the models’ well-known propensity to confabulate fake citations and sycophantically flatter users.

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