rover

NASA seeks a “warm backup” option as key decision on lunar rover nears

astrolab, intuitive machines, LTV, Lunar Outpost, NASA, rover, Space / Beth Washington / December 2, 2025

By the time the second group of NASA astronauts reach the Moon later this decade, the space agency would like to have a lunar rover waiting for them. But as the space agency nears a key selection, some government officials are seeking an insurance policy of sorts to increase the program’s chance of success.

At issue is the agency’s “Lunar Terrain Vehicle” (LTV) contract. In April 2024, the space agency awarded a few tens of millions of dollars to three companies—Intuitive Machines, Lunar Outpost, and Astrolab—to complete preliminary design work on vehicle concepts. NASA then planned to down-select to one company to construct one or more rovers, land on the Moon, and provide rover services for a decade beginning in 2029. Over the lifetime of the fixed-price services contract, there was a combined maximum potential value of $4.6 billion.

The companies have since completed their design work, including the construction of prototypes, and submitted their final bids for the much larger services contract in August. According to two sources, NASA has since been weighing those bids and is prepared to announce a final selection before the end of this month.

NASA can only afford one

The problem is that NASA can only afford to fund one company’s proposal, leaving two other rovers on the cutting room floor.

This is bad for competition, and it leaves NASA vulnerable. Recently, one of NASA’s two new spacesuit providers, Collins, dropped out of the program. This left only Axiom Space as a provider of suits for the lunar surface. And back in 2014, with the Commercial Crew Program, NASA very nearly awarded all of its available funding to Boeing. (SpaceX was only added in during the final weeks before the decision was announced.) More than a decade later, Boeing has yet to deliver a finished crewed spacecraft.

“We have seen, over and over again with our commercial programs, that two is better than one,” an official told Ars.

In short, having just a single company advancing its lunar rover means there is a single point failure—if that company quits for whatever reason, NASA astronauts will be left without wheels on the Moon.

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A new Martian climate model suggest a mostly cold, harsh environment

“Very early in Mars’ history, maybe 4 billion years ago, the planet was warm enough to support lakes and river networks,” Kite told Ars. “There were seas, and some of those seas were as big as the Caspian Sea, maybe bigger. It was a wet place.” This wet period, though, didn’t last long—it was too short to make the landscape deeply weathered and deeply eroded.

Kite’s team used their model to focus on what happened as the planet got colder, when the era of salts started. “Big areas of snowmelts created huge salt flats, which eventually built up over time, accumulating into a thick sedimentary deposit Curiosity rover is currently exploring,” Kite said. But the era of salts did not mark the end of liquid water on the Martian surface.

Flickering habitability

The landscape turned arid, judging by Earth’s standards, roughly 3.5 billion years ago. “There were long periods when the planet was entirely dry,” Kite said. During these dry periods, Mars was almost as cold as it is today. But once in a while, small areas with liquid water appeared on the Martian surface like oases amidst an otherwise unwelcoming desert. It was a sterile planet with flickering, transient habitable spots with water coming from melted snow.

This rather bleak picture of the Martian landscape’s evolution makes questions about our chances for finding traces of life in there tricky.

“You can do a thought experiment where you take a cup of water from the Earth’s ocean and pour it into one of those transient lakes on Mars,” Kite said. “Some microbes in this cup of water would do fine in such conditions.” The bigger question, he thinks, is whether life could originate (rather than just survive) on ancient Mars. And, perhaps more critically, whether hypothetical life that originated even before the salts era, when the planet was warm and wet, could persist in the oases popping up in the Kite’s model.

The answer, sadly, is probably not.