sociology

why-incels-take-the-“blackpill”—and-why-we-should-care

Why incels take the “Blackpill”—and why we should care


“Don’t work for Soyciety”

A growing number of incels are NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training). That should concern us all.

The Netlix series Adolescence explores the roots of misogynistic subcultures. Credit: Netflix

The online incel (“involuntary celibate”) subculture is mostly known for its extreme rhetoric, primarily against women, sometimes erupting into violence. But a growing number of self-identified incels are using their ideology as an excuse for not working or studying. This could constitute a kind of coping mechanism to make sense of their failures—not just in romantic relationships but also in education and employment, according to a paper published in the journal Gender, Work, & Organization.

Contrary to how it’s often portrayed, the “manosphere,” as it is often called, is not a monolith. Those who embrace the “Redpill” ideology, for example, might insist that women control the “sexual marketplace” and are only interested in ultramasculine “Chads.” They champion self-improvement as a means to make themselves more masculine and successful, and hence (they believe) more attractive to women—or at least better able to manipulate women.

By contrast, the “Blackpilled” incel contingent is generally more nihilistic. These individuals reject the Redpill notion of alpha-male masculinity and the accompanying focus on self-improvement. They believe that dating and social success are entirely determined by one’s looks and/or genetics. Since there is nothing they can do to improve their chances with women or their lot in life, why even bother?

“People have a tendency to lump all these different groups together as the manosphere,” co-author AnnaRose Beckett-Herbert of McGill University told Ars. “One critique I have of the recent Netflix show Adolescence—which was well done overall—is they lump incels in with figures like Andrew Tate, as though it’s all interchangeable. There’s areas of overlap, like extreme misogyny, but there are really important distinctions. We have to be careful to make those distinctions because the kind of intervention or prevention efforts that we might direct towards the Redpill community versus the Blackpill community might be very different.”

Incels constitute a fairly small fraction of the manosphere, but the vast majority of incels appear to embrace the Blackpill ideology, per Beckett-Herbert. That nihilistic attitude can extend to any kind of participation in what incels term “Soyciety”—including educational attainment and employment. When that happens, such individuals are best described by the acronym NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training).

“It’s not that we have large swaths of young men that are falling into this rabbit hole,” said Beckett-Herbert. “Their ideology is pretty fringe, but we’re seeing the community grow, and we’re seeing the ideology spread. It used to be contained to romantic relationships and sex. Now we’re seeing this broader disengagement from society as a whole. We should all be concerned about that trend.”

The NEET trend is also tied to the broader cultural discourse on how boys and young men are struggling in contemporary society. While prior studies tended to focus on the misogynistic rhetoric and propensity for violence among incels, “I thought that the unemployment lens was interesting because it’s indicative of larger problems,” said Beckett-Herbert. “It’s important to remember that it’s not zero-sum. We can care about the well-being of women and girls and also acknowledge that young men are struggling, too. Those don’t have to be at odds.”

“Lie down and rot”

Beckett-Herbert and her advisor/co-author, McGill University sociologist Eran Shor, chose the incels.is platform as a data source for their study due to its ease of public access and relatively high traffic, with nearly 20,000 members. The pair used Python code to scrape 100 pages, amounting to around 10,000 discussion threads between October and December 2022. A pilot study revealed 10 keywords that appeared most frequently in those threads: “study,” “school,” “NEET,” “job,” “work,” “money,” “career,” “wage,” “employ,” and “rot.” (“They use the phrase ‘lie down and rot’ a lot,” said Beckett-Herbert.)

This allowed Beckett-Herbert and Shor to narrow their sample down to 516 threads with titles containing those keywords. They randomly selected a subset of 171 discussion threads for further study. That analysis yielded four main themes that dominated the discussion threads: political/ideological arguments about being NEET; boundary policing; perceived discrimination; and bullying and marginalization.

Roughly one-quarter of the total comments consisted of political or ideological arguments promoting being NEET, with most commenters advocating minimizing one’s contributions to society as much as possible. They suggested going on welfare, for instance, to “take back” from society, or declared they should be exempt from paying any taxes, as “compensation for our suffering.” About 25 percent—a vocal minority—pushed back on glorifying the NEET lifestyle and offered concrete suggestions for self-improvement. (“Go outside and try at least,” one user commented.)

Such pushback often led to boundary policing. Those who do pursue jobs or education run the risk of being dubbed “fakecels” and becoming alienated from the rest of the incel community. (“Don’t work for a society that hates you,” one user commented.) “There’s a lot of social psychological research on groupthink and group polarization that is relevant here,” said Beckett-Herbert. “A lot of these young men may not have friends in their real life. This community is often their one source of social connection. So the incel ideology becomes core to their identity: ‘I’m part of this community, and we don’t work. We are subhumans.'”

There were also frequent laments about being discriminated against for not being attractive (“lookism”), both romantically and professionally, as well as deep resentment of women’s increased presence in the workplace, deemed a threat to men’s own success. “They love to cherry-pick all these findings from psychology research [to support their position],” said Beckett-Herbert. For instance, “There is evidence that men who are short or not conventionally attractive are discriminated against in hiring. But there’s also a lot of evidence suggesting that this actually affects women more. Women who are overweight face a greater bias against them in hiring than men do, for example.”

Beckett-Herbert and Shor also found that about 15 percent of the comments in their sample concerned users’ experiences being harassed or bullied (usually by other men), their mental health challenges (anxiety, depression), and feeling estranged or ostracized at school or work—experiences that cemented their reluctance to work or engage in education or vocational training.

Many of these users also mentioned being autistic, in keeping with prior research showing a relatively high share of people with autism in incel communities. The authors were careful to clarify, however, that most people with autism “are not violent or hateful, nor do they identify as incels or hold explicitly misogynistic views,” they wrote. “Rather, autism, when combined with other mental health issues such as depression, anxiety, and hopelessness, may make young men more vulnerable to incel ideologies.”

There are always caveats. In this case, the study was limited to a single incel forum, which might not be broadly representative of similar discussions on other platforms. And there could be a bit of selection bias at play. Not every incel member may actively participate in discussion threads (lurkers) and non-NEET incels might be less likely to do so either because they have less free time or don’t wish to be dismissed as “fakecels.”However, Beckett-Herbert and Shor note that their findings are consistent with previous studies that suggest there are a disproportionately large number of NEETs within the incel community.

A pound of prevention

Is effective intervention even possible for members of the incel community, given their online echo chamber? Beckett-Herbert acknowledges that it is very difficult to break through to such people. “De-radicalization is a noble, worthy line of research,” she said. “But the existing evidence from that field of study suggests that prevention is easier and more effective than trying to pull these people out once they’re already in.” Potential strategies might include fostering better digital and media literacy, i.e., teaching kids to be cognizant of the content they’re consuming online. Exposure time is another key issue.

“A lot of these young people don’t have healthy outlets that are not in the digital world,” said Beckett-Herbert “They come home from school and spend hours and hours online. They’re lonely and isolated from real-world communities and structures. Some of these harmful ideologies might be downstream of these larger root causes. How can we help boys do better in school, feel better prepared for the labor market? How can we help them make more friends? How can we get them involved in real-world activities that will diminish their time spent online? I think that that can go a long way. Just condemning them or banning their spaces—that’s not a good long-term solution.”

While there are multiple well-publicized instances of self-identified incels committing violent acts—most notably Elliot Rodger, who killed six people in 2014—Beckett-Herbert emphasizes not losing sight of incels’ fundamental humanity. “We focus a lot on the misogyny, the potential for violence against women, and that is so important,” she said. “You will not hear me saying we should not focus on that. But we also should note that statistically, an incel is much more likely to commit suicide or be violent towards themselves than they are toward someone else. You can both condemn their ideology and find it abhorrent and also remember that we need to have empathy for these people.”

Many people—women especially—might find that a tall order, and Beckett-Herbert understands that reluctance. “I do understand people’s hesitancy to empathize with them, because it feels like you’re giving credence to their rhetoric,” she said. “But at the end of the day, they are human, and a lot of them are really struggling, marginalized people coming from pretty sad backgrounds. When you peruse their online world, it’s the most horrifying, angering misogyny right next to some of the saddest mental health, suicidal, low self-esteem stuff you’ve ever seen. I think humanizing them and having empathy is going to be foundational to any intervention efforts to reintegrate them. But it’s something I wrestle with a lot.”

Photo of Jennifer Ouellette

Jennifer is a senior writer at Ars Technica with a particular focus on where science meets culture, covering everything from physics and related interdisciplinary topics to her favorite films and TV series. Jennifer lives in Baltimore with her spouse, physicist Sean M. Carroll, and their two cats, Ariel and Caliban.

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new-twist-on-marshmallow-test-shows-power-of-a-promise

New twist on marshmallow test shows power of a promise

There have also been several studies examining the effects of social interdependence and similar social contexts on children’s ability to delay gratification, using variations of the marshmallow test paradigm. For instance, in 2020, a team of German researchers adapted the classic experimental setup using Oreos and vanilla cookies with German and Kenyan schoolchildren, respectively. If both children waited to eat their treat, they received a second cookie as a reward; if one did not wait, neither child received a second cookie. They found that the kids were more likely to delay gratification when they depended on each other, compared to the standard marshmallow test.

An online paradigm

Rebecca Koomen, a psychologist now at the University of Manchester, co-authored the 2020 study as well as this latest one, which sought to build on those findings. Koomen et al. structured their experiments similarly, this time recruiting 66 UK children, ages 5 to 6, as subjects. They focused on how promising a partner not to eat a favorite treat could inspire sufficient trust to delay gratification, compared to the social risk of one or both partners breaking that promise. Any parent could tell you that children of this age are really big on the importance of promises, and science largely concurs; a promise has been shown to enhance interdependent cooperation in this age group.

Koomen and her Manchester colleagues added an extra twist: They conducted their version of the marshmallow test online to test the effectiveness compared to lab-based versions of the experiment. (Prior results from similar online studies have been mixed.) “Given face-to-face testing restrictions during the COVID pandemic, this, to our knowledge, represents the first cooperative marshmallow study to be conducted online, thereby adding to the growing body of literature concerning the validity of remote testing methods,” they wrote.

The type of treat was chosen by each child’s parents, ensuring it was a favorite: chocolate, candy, biscuits, and marshmallows, mostly, although three kids loved potato chips, fruit, and nuts, respectively. Parents were asked to set up the experiment in a quiet room with minimal potential distractions, outfitted with a webcam to monitor the experiment. Each child was shown a video of a “confederate child” who either clearly promised not to eat the treat or more ambiguously suggested they might succumb and eat their treat. (The confederate child refrained from eating the treat in both conditions, although the participant child did not know that.)

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heroes,-villains,-and-childhood-trauma-in-the-mceu-and-dcu

Heroes, villains, and childhood trauma in the MCEU and DCU

They also limited their study to Marvel and DC characters depicted in major films, rather than including storylines from spinoff TV series. So Wanda Maximoff/The Scarlet Witch was not included since much of her traumatic backstory appeared in the series WandaVision. Furthermore, “We omitted gathering more characters from comic books in both Marvel and DC universes, due to their inconsistency in character development,” the authors wrote. “Comic book storylines often feature alternative plot lines, character arcs, and multiverse outcomes. The storytelling makes comic book characters highly inconsistent and challenging to score.”

With great power…

They ended up watching 33 films, with a total runtime of 77 hours and 5 minutes. They chose 19 male characters, eight female characters, and one gender-fluid character (Loki) as “subjects” for their study, applying the ACE questionnaire to their childhoods as portrayed in the films.

The results: “We found no statistically significant differences between heroes and villains, Marvel and DC characters, or men and women and ACE scores,” said Jackson. “This means that characters who were portrayed as having difficult childhoods were not more likely to be villains. This study somewhat refutes the idea that villains are a product of their experiences. Based on the films we watched, people chose to be heroes and that was what made the difference—not their experiences.”

Notably, Black Widow had the highest ACE score (eight) and yet still became an Avenger, though the authors acknowledge that the character did some bad things before then and famously wanted to wipe out the “red” in her ledger. She “represents resilience of characters who have experienced trauma,” the authors wrote, as well as demonstrating that “socio-ecological resilience, including access to social relationships and supportive communities, can play a mitigating role in the effect of ACEs.” The Joker, by contrast, scored a six and “wreaked havoc across Gotham City.”

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how-the-malleus-maleficarum-fueled-the-witch-trial-craze

How the Malleus maleficarum fueled the witch trial craze


Invention of printing press, influence of nearby cities created perfect conditions for social contagion.

Between 1400 and 1775, a significant upsurge of witch trials swept across early-modern Europe, resulting in the execution of an estimated 40,000–60,000 accused witches. Historians and social scientists have long studied this period in hopes of learning more about how large-scale social changes occur. Some have pointed to the invention of the printing press and the publication of witch-hunting manuals—most notably the highly influential Malleus maleficarum—as a major factor, making it easier for the witch-hunting hysteria to spread across the continent.

The abrupt emergence of the craze and its rapid spread, resulting in a pronounced shift in social behaviors—namely, the often brutal persecution of suspected witches—is consistent with a theory of social change dubbed “ideational diffusion,” according to a new paper published in the journal Theory and Society. There is the introduction of new ideas, reinforced by social networks, that eventually take root and lead to widespread behavioral changes in a society.

The authors had already been thinking about cultural change and the driving forces by which it occurs, including social contagion—especially large cultural shifts like the Reformation and the Counter-Reformation, for example. One co-author, Steve Pfaff, a sociologist at Chapman University, was working on a project about witch trials in Scotland and was particularly interested in the role the Malleus maleficarum might have played.

“Plenty of other people have written about witch trials, specific trials or places or histories,” co-author Kerice Doten-Snitker, a social scientist with the Santa Fe Institute, told Ars. “We’re interested in building a general theory about change and wanted to use that as a particular opportunity. We realized that the printing of the Mallleus maleficarum was something we could measure, which is useful when you want to do empirical work, not just theoretical work.”

Ch-ch-ch-changes…

The Witch, No. 1, c. 1892 lithograph by Joseph E. Baker. shows a woman in a courtroom, in the dock with arms outstretched before a judge and jury.

The Witch, No. 1, c. 1892 lithograph by Joseph E. Baker.

Credit: Public domain

The Witch, No. 1, c. 1892 lithograph by Joseph E. Baker. Credit: Public domain

Modeling how sweeping cultural change happens has been a hot research topic for decades, hitting the cultural mainstream with the publication of Malcolm Gladwell’s 2000 bestseller The Tipping Point. Researchers continue to make advances in this area. University of Pennsylvania sociologist Damon Centola, for instance, published How Behavior Spreads: the Science of Complex Contagions in 2018, in which he applied new lessons learned in epidemiology—on how viral epidemics spread—to our understanding of how social networks can broadly alter human behavior. But while epidemiological modeling might be useful for certain simple forms of social contagion—people come into contact with something and it spreads rapidly, like a viral meme or hit song—other forms of social contagion are more complicated, per Doten-Snitker.

Doten-Snitker et al.’s ideational diffusion model differs from Centola’s in some critical respects. For cases like the spread of witch trials, “It’s not just that people are coming into contact with a new idea, but that there has to be something cognitively that is happening,” said Doten-Snitker. “People have to grapple with the ideas and undergo some kind of idea adoption. We talk about this as reinterpreting the social world. They have to rethink what’s happening around them in ways that make them think that not only are these attractive new ideas, but also those new ideas prescribe different types of behavior. You have to act differently because of what you’re encountering.”

The authors chose to focus on social networks and trade routes for their analysis of the witch trials, building on prior research that prioritized broader economic and environmental factors. Cultural elites were already exchanging ideas through letters, but published books added a new dimension to those exchanges. Researchers studying 21st century social contagion can download massive amounts of online data from social networks. That kind of data is sparse from the medieval era. “We don’t have the same archives of communication,” said Doten-Snitker. “There’s this dual thing happening: the book itself, and people sharing information, arguing back and forth with each other” about new ideas.

Graph showing the stages of the ideation diffusion model

The stages of the ideation diffusion model.

Credit: K. Dooten-Snitker et al., 2024

The stages of the ideation diffusion model. Credit: K. Dooten-Snitker et al., 2024

So she and her co-authors et al. turned to trade routes to determine which cities were more central and thus more likely to be focal points of new ideas and information. “The places that are more central in these trade networks have more stuff passing through and are more likely to come into contact with new ideas from multiple directions—specifically ideas about witchcraft,” said Doten-Snitker. Then they looked at which of 553 cities in Central Europe held their first witch trials, and when, as well as those where the Malleus maleficarum and similar manuals had been published.

Social contagion

They found that each new published edition of the Malleus maleficarum corresponded with a subsequent increase in witch trials. But that wasn’t the only contributing factor; trends in neighboring cities also influenced the increase, resulting in a slow-moving ripple effect that spread across the continent. “What’s the behavior of neighboring cities?” said Doten-Snitker. “Are they having witch trials? That makes your city more likely to have a witch trial when you have the opportunity.”

In epidemiological models like Centola’s, the pattern of change is a slow start with early adoption that then picks up speed and spreads before slowing down again as a saturation point is reached, because most people have now adopted the new idea or technology. That doesn’t happen with witch trials or other complex social processes such as the spread of medieval antisemitism. “Most things don’t actually spread that widely; they don’t reach complete saturation,” said Doten-Snitker. “So we need to have theories that build that in as well.”

In the case of witch trials, the publication of the Malleus maleficarum helped shift medieval attitudes toward witchcraft, from something that wasn’t viewed as a particularly pressing problem to something evil that was menacing society. The tome also offered practical advice on what should be done about it. “So there’s changing ideas about witchcraft and this gets coupled with, well, you need to do something about it,” said Doten-Snitker. “Not only is witchcraft bad, but it’s a threat. So you have a responsibility as a community to do something about witches.”

The term “witch hunt” gets bandied about frequently in modern times, particularly on social media, and is generally understood to reference a mob mentality unleashed on a given target. But Doten-Snitker emphasizes that medieval witch trials were not “mob justice”; they were organized affairs, with official accusations to an organized local judiciary that collected and evaluated evidence, using the Malleus malficarum and similar treatises as a guide. The process, she said, is similar to how today’s governments adopt new policies.

Why conspiracy theories take hold

Graphic showing cities where witch trials did and did not take place in Central EuropeWitch trials in Central Europe, 1400–1679, as well as those that printed the Malleus Maleficarum.

Cities where witch trials did and did not take place in Central Europe, 1400–1679, as well as those with printed copies of the Malleus Maleficarum.

Credit: K. Doten-Snitker et al., 2024

Cities where witch trials did and did not take place in Central Europe, 1400–1679, as well as those with printed copies of the Malleus Maleficarum. Credit: K. Doten-Snitker et al., 2024

The authors developed their model using the witch trials as a useful framework, but there are contemporary implications, particularly with regard to the rampant spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories via social media. These can also lead to changes in real-world behavior, including violent outbreaks like the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol or, more recently, threats aimed at FEMA workers in the wake of Hurricane Helene. Doten-Snitker thinks their model could help identify the emergence of certain telltale patterns, notably the combination of the spread of misinformation or conspiracy theories on social media along with practical guidelines for responding.

“People have talked about the ways that certain conspiracy theories end up making sense to people,” said Doten-Snitker. “It’s because they’re constructing new ways of thinking about their world. This is why people start with one conspiracy theory belief that is then correlated with belief in others. It’s because you’ve already started rebuilding your image of what’s happening in the world around you and that serves as a basis for how you should act.”

On the plus side, “It’s actually hard for something that feels compelling to certain people to spread throughout the whole population,” she said. “We should still be concerned about ideas that spread that could be socially harmful. We just need to figure out where it might be most likely to happen and focus our efforts in those places rather than assuming it is a global threat.”

There was a noticeable sharp decline in both the frequency and intensity of witch trial persecutions in 1679 and onward, raising the question of how such cultural shifts eventually ran their course. That aspect is not directly addressed by their model, according to Doten-Snitker, but it does provide a framework for the kinds of things that might signal a similar major shift, such as people starting to push back against extreme responses or practices.  In the case of the tail end of the witch trials craze, for instance, there was increased pressure to prioritize clear and consistent judicial practices that excluded extreme measures such as extracting confessions via torture, for example, or excluding dreams as evidence of witchcraft.

“That then supplants older ideas about what is appropriate and how you should behave in the world and you could have a de-escalation of some of the more extremist tendencies,” said Doten-Snitker. “It’s not enough to simply say those ideas or practices are wrong. You have to actually replace it with something. And that is something that is in our model. You have to get people to re-interpret what’s happening around them and what they should do in response. If you do that, then you are undermining a worldview rather than just criticizing it.”

Theory and Society, 2024. DOI: 10.1007/s11186-024-09576-1  (About DOIs).

Photo of Jennifer Ouellette

Jennifer is a senior reporter at Ars Technica with a particular focus on where science meets culture, covering everything from physics and related interdisciplinary topics to her favorite films and TV series. Jennifer lives in Baltimore with her spouse, physicist Sean M. Carroll, and their two cats, Ariel and Caliban.

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