Science

ceo-of-failing-hospital-chain-got-$250m-amid-patient-deaths,-layoffs,-bankruptcy

CEO of failing hospital chain got $250M amid patient deaths, layoffs, bankruptcy

for-profit hospitals, health, health care, health care system, private equity, Science, steward / /

“Outrageous corporate greed” —

Steward Health Care System, run by CEO Ralph de la Torre, filed for bankruptcy in May.

–

Hospital staff and community members held a protest in front of Carney Hospital in Boston on August 5 as Steward has announced it will close the hospital.

Enlarge / Hospital staff and community members held a protest in front of Carney Hospital in Boston on August 5 as Steward has announced it will close the hospital. “Ralph” refers to Steward’s CEO, Ralph de la Torre, who owns a yacht.

As the more than 30 hospitals in the Steward Health Care System scrounged for cash to cover supplies, shuttered pediatric and neonatal units, closed maternity wards, laid off hundreds of health care workers, and put patients in danger, the system paid out at least $250 million to its CEO and his companies, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

The newly revealed financial details bring yet more scrutiny to Steward CEO Ralph de la Torre, a Harvard University-trained cardiac surgeon who, in 2020, took over majority ownership of Steward from the private equity firm Cerberus. De la Torre and his companies were reportedly paid at least $250 million since that takeover. In May, Steward, which has hospitals in eight states, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Critics—including members of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP)—allege that de la Torre and stripped the system’s hospitals of assets, siphoned payments from them, and loaded them with debt, all while reaping huge payouts that made him obscenely wealthy.

Alleged greed

For instance, de la Torre sold the land under the system’s hospitals to a large hospital landlord, Medical Properties Trust, leaving Steward hospitals on the hook for large rent payments. Under de la Torre’s leadership, Steward also paid a management consulting firm $30 million a year to “provide executive oversight and overall strategic directive.” But, de la Torre was the majority owner of the consulting firm, which also employed other Steward executives. As the WSJ put it, Steward “effectively paid its CEO’s firm, which employed Steward executives, for executive- management services for Steward.”

In 2021, while the COVID-19 pandemic strained hospitals, Steward distributed $111 million to shareholders. With de la Torre owning 73 percent of the company at the time, his share would have been around $81 million, the WSJ reported. That year, de la Torre bought a 190-foot yacht for $40 million. He also owns a $15 million custom-made luxury fishing boat called Jaruco. The Senate Help Committee, meanwhile, notes that a Steward affiliate owned two jets, one valued at $62 million and a second “backup” jet valued at $33 million.

In 2022, de la Torre got married in an elaborate wedding on Italy’s Amalfi Coast and bought a 500-acre Texas ranch for at least $7.2 million. His new wife, Nicole Acosta, 29, is a competitive equestrian who trains at a facility near the ranch. She competes on a horse that was sold in 2014 for $3.5 million, though it’s unclear how much the couple paid for it. Besides the ranch, de la Torre, 58, owns an 11,108-square-foot mansion in Dallas valued at $7.2 million, the WSJ reported.

While de la Torre was living a lavish lifestyle, Steward hospitals faced dire situations—as they had been for years. An investigation by the Senate HELP committee noted that Steward had shut down several hospitals in Massachusetts, Ohio, Arizona, and Texas between 2014 and this year, laying off thousands of health care workers and leaving communities in the lurch. It closed several pediatric wards in Massachusetts and Texas; in Florida, it closed neonatal units and eliminated maternity services. In Louisiana, Steward patients faced “immediate jeopardy.”

“Third-world medicine”

In a July hearing, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), ranking member of the HELP Committee, spoke of the conditions at Glenwood Regional Medical Center in West Monroe, Louisiana, which Steward allegedly mismanaged. “According to a report from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, a physician at Glenwood told a Louisiana state inspector that the hospital was performing ‘third-world medicine,'” Cassidy said.

Further, “one patient died while waiting for a transfer to another hospital because Glenwood did not have the resources to treat them,” the Senator said.  “Unfortunately, Glenwood is not unique,” he went on. “At a Steward-owned Massachusetts hospital, a woman died after giving birth when doctors realized mid-surgery that the supplies needed to treat her were previously repossessed due to Steward’s financial troubles.” The hospital reportedly owed the supplier $2.5 million in unpaid bills.

Additionally, the WSJ investigation dug up records that showed that a pest control company discovered 3,000 bats living in one of Steward’s Florida hospitals. In Arizona, a Phoenix-area hospital was without air conditioning during scorching temperatures, and its kitchen was closed for health-code violations. The state ordered it to shut down last week.

“Dr. de la Torre and his executive teams’ poor financial decisions and gross mismanagement of its hospitals is shocking,” Cassidy said. “Patients’ lives are at risk. The American people deserve answers.”

Outrage

Senate HELP Committee chair Bernie Sanders (I-VT) went further, saying that the US health care system “is designed not to make patients well, but to make health care executives and stockholders extraordinarily wealthy. … Perhaps more than anyone else in America, Ralph de la Torre, the CEO of Steward Health Care, epitomizes the type of outrageous corporate greed that is permeating throughout our for-profit health care system.”

Sanders lamented how de la Torre’s payouts could have instead benefited patients and communities, asking: “How many of Steward’s hospitals could have been prevented from closing down, how many lives could have been saved, how many health care workers would still have their jobs if Dr. de la Torre spent $150 million on high-quality health care instead of a yacht, two private jets and a luxury fishing boat?”

On July 25, the committee voted 16–4 to subpoena de la Torre so they could ask him such questions in person. To date, de la Torre has refused to voluntarily appear before the committee and declined to comment on the WSJ report. The committee’s vote marks the first time since 1981 that it has issued a subpoena.

Separately, Steward and de la Torre are under investigation by the Department of Justice over allegations of fraud and corruption in a deal to run hospitals in Malta.

CEO of failing hospital chain got $250M amid patient deaths, layoffs, bankruptcy Read More »

how-accurate-are-wearable-fitness-trackers?-less-than-you-might think

How accurate are wearable fitness trackers? Less than you might think

health, health tracker, health tracking, Science, syndication, Tech / /

some misleading metrics —

Wide variance underscores need for a standardized approach to validation of devices.

–

How accurate are wearable fitness trackers? Less than you might think

Corey Gaskin

Back in 2010, Gary Wolf, then the editor of Wired magazine, delivered a TED talk in Cannes called “the quantified self.” It was about what he termed a “new fad” among tech enthusiasts. These early adopters were using gadgets to monitor everything from their physiological data to their mood and even the number of nappies their children used.

Wolf acknowledged that these people were outliers—tech geeks fascinated by data—but their behavior has since permeated mainstream culture.

From the smartwatches that track our steps and heart rate, to the fitness bands that log sleep patterns and calories burned, these gadgets are now ubiquitous. Their popularity is emblematic of a modern obsession with quantification—the idea that if something isn’t logged, it doesn’t count.

At least half the people in any given room are likely wearing a device, such as a fitness tracker, that quantifies some aspect of their lives. Wearables are being adopted at a pace reminiscent of the mobile phone boom of the late 2000s.

However, the quantified self movement still grapples with an important question: Can wearable devices truly measure what they claim to?

Along with my colleagues Maximus Baldwin, Alison Keogh, Brian Caulfield, and Rob Argent, I recently published an umbrella review (a systematic review of systematic reviews) examining the scientific literature on whether consumer wearable devices can accurately measure metrics like heart rate, aerobic capacity, energy expenditure, sleep, and step count.

At a surface level, our results were quite positive. Accepting some error, wearable devices can measure heart rate with an error rate of plus or minus 3 percent, depending on factors like skin tone, exercise intensity, and activity type. They can also accurately measure heart rate variability and show good sensitivity and specificity for detecting arrhythmia, a problem with the rate of a person’s heartbeat.

Additionally, they can accurately estimate what’s known as cardiorespiratory fitness, which is how the circulatory and respiratory systems supply oxygen to the muscles during physical activity. This can be quantified by something called VO2Max, which is a measure of how much oxygen your body uses while exercising.

The ability of wearables to accurately measure this is better when those predictions are generated during exercise (rather than at rest). In the realm of physical activity, wearables generally underestimate step counts by about 9 percent.

Challenging endeavour

However, discrepancies were larger for energy expenditure (the number of calories you burn when exercising) with error margins ranging from minus-21.27 percent to 14.76 percent, depending on the device used and the activity undertaken.

Results weren’t much better for sleep. Wearables tend to overestimate total sleep time and sleep efficiency, typically by more than 10 percent. They also tend to underestimate sleep onset latency (a lag in getting to sleep) and wakefulness after sleep onset. Errors ranged from 12 percent to 180 percent, compared to the gold standard measurements used in sleep studies, known as polysomnography.

The upshot is that, despite the promising capabilities of wearables, we found conducting and synthesizing research in this field to be very challenging. One hurdle we encountered was the inconsistent methodologies employed by different research groups when validating a given device.

This lack of standardization leads to conflicting results and makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about a device’s accuracy. A classic example from our research: one study might assess heart rate accuracy during high-intensity interval training, while another focuses on sedentary activities, leading to discrepancies that can’t be easily reconciled.

Other issues include varying sample sizes, participant demographics, and experimental conditions—all of which add layers of complexity to the interpretation of our findings.

What does it mean for me?

Perhaps most importantly, the rapid pace at which new wearable devices are released exacerbates these issues. With most companies following a yearly release cycle, we and other researchers find it challenging to keep up. The timeline for planning a study, obtaining ethical approval, recruiting and testing participants, analyzing results, and publishing can often exceed 12 months.

By the time a study is published, the device under investigation is likely to already be obsolete, replaced by a newer model with potentially different specifications and performance characteristics. This is demonstrated by our finding that less than 5 percent of the consumer wearables that have been released to date have been validated for the range of physiological signals they purport to measure.

What do our results mean for you? As wearable technologies continue to permeate various facets of health and lifestyle, it is important to approach manufacturers’ claims with a healthy dose of skepticism. Gaps in research, inconsistent methodologies, and the rapid pace of new device releases underscore the need for a more formalized and standardized approach to the validation of devices.

The goal here would be to foster collaborative synergies between formal certification bodies, academic research consortia, popular media influencers, and the industry so that we can augment the depth and reach of wearable technology evaluation.

Efforts are already underway to establish a collaborative network that can foster a richer, multifaceted dialogue that resonates with a broad spectrum of stakeholders—ensuring that wearables are not just innovative gadgets but reliable tools for health and wellness.The Conversation

Cailbhe Doherty, assistant professor in the School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

How accurate are wearable fitness trackers? Less than you might think Read More »

against-all-odds,-an-asteroid-mining-company-appears-to-be-making-headway

Against all odds, an asteroid mining company appears to be making headway

asteroid mining, Science, Space / /

Forging ahead —

“It’s not easy to ever raise for an asteroid mining company, right?”

–

The Odin spacecraft passed vibration testing.

Enlarge / The Odin spacecraft passed vibration testing.

Astro Forge

When I first spoke with space entrepreneurs Jose Acain and Matt Gialich a little more than two years ago, I wondered whether I would ever talk to them again.

That is not meant to be offensive; rather, it is a reflection of the fact that the business they entered into—mining asteroids for platinum and other precious metals—is a perilous one. To date, NASA and other space agencies have spent billions of dollars returning a few grams of rocky material from asteroids. Humanity has never visited a metal-rich asteroid, although that will finally change with NASA’s $1.4 billion Psyche mission in 2029. And so commercial asteroid mining seems like a stretch, and indeed, other similarly minded startups have come and gone.

But it turns out that I did hear from Acain and Gialich again about their asteroid mining venture, AstroForge. On Tuesday the co-founders announced that they have successfully raised $40 million in Series A funding and shared plans for their next two missions. AstroForge has now raised a total of $55 million to date.

“It was challenging,” Gialich said of the latest fundraising effort, in an interview. “It’s not easy to ever raise for an asteroid mining company, right? Let’s be honest. We talked two years ago and you told us this. And you were not wrong. So a big part of this funding round was just showing people that we can actually build a spacecraft.”

Making some mistakes

In April 2023, the company launched a shoebox-sized cubesat, named the Brokkr-1 mission, on a SpaceX Transporter flight. Although the vehicle flew as intended for a while, AstroForge was unable to send the necessary commands to the spacecraft to initiate a demonstration of its space-based refining technology.

However, Gialich said AstroForge learned a lot from this mission and is working toward launching a second spacecraft named Odin. This will be a rideshare payload on the Intuitive Machines-2 mission, which is due to launch during the fourth quarter of this year. If successful, the Odin mission would be spectacular. About seven months after launching, Odin will attempt to fly by a near-Earth, metallic-rich asteroid while capturing images and taking data—truly visiting terra incognita. Odin would also be the first private mission to fly by a body in the Solar System beyond the Moon.

It has not been an easy project to develop. In the name of expediency, AstroForge initially sought to develop this spacecraft by largely outsourcing key components from suppliers—a practice known as horizontal integration. However, in March, the Odin spacecraft failed vibration testing. “Originally, our concept was to be different than SpaceX, and be horizontally integrated, not vertical,” Gialich said. “That was completely wrong. We have very much made changes there to be vertical.”

After the original vehicle failed vibration testing, which ensures it can survive the rigors of launch, AstroForge decided to bring forward a spacecraft being developed internally for the company’s third flight and use that for the Odin mission. To remain on track for a launch this year, the company had to complete vibration testing of the new, 100-kg Odin vehicle by August 1. AstroForge made that deadline but still must complete several other tests before shipping Odin to the launch pad.

Docking with an asteroid

On Tuesday, the company also announced plans for its third mission, Vestri (the company is naming its missions after Norse deities). This spacecraft will be about twice as large as Odin and is intended to return to the targeted metallic asteroid and dock with it. The docking mechanism is simple—since the asteroid is likely to be iron-rich, Vestri will use magnets to attach itself.

The plan is to use a mass spectrometer to sample and characterize the asteroid weekly until the spacecraft fails. AstroForge seeks to launch Vestri on another Intuitive Machines mission in 2025. Vestri’s goals are highly ambitious, as no private spacecraft has ever landed on a body beyond the Moon.

AstroForge is tracking several candidate asteroids as the target body for Odin and Vestri, Gialich said, each of which is about 400 meters across. He won’t make a final decision for several months. The company does not want to tip its hand due to the interest of potential competitors, including China-based Origin Space.

However, there is no shortage of potential targets. Scientists estimate that there are about 10 million near-Earth asteroids, which come within one astronomical unit (the distance between the Sun and Earth) of our planet. Perhaps 3 to 5 percent of these are rich in metals, so there are potentially hundreds of thousands of candidates for mining.

Against all odds, an asteroid mining company appears to be making headway Read More »

that-book-is-poison:-even-more-victorian-covers-found-to-contain-toxic-dyes

That book is poison: Even more Victorian covers found to contain toxic dyes

arsenic, chemistry, poison book project, Science, spectroscopy, toxic pigments, x-ray diffraction, x-ray fluorescence / /

Arsenic and old books —

Old books with toxic dyes may be in universities, public libraries, private collections.

–

Composite image showing color variation of emerald green bookcloth on book spines, likely a result of air pollution

Enlarge / Composite image showing color variation of emerald green bookcloth on book spines, likely a result of air pollution

In April, the National Library of France removed four 19th century books, all published in Great Britain, from its shelves because the covers were likely laced with arsenic. The books have been placed in quarantine for further analysis to determine exactly how much arsenic is present. It’s part of an ongoing global effort to test cloth-bound books from the 19th and early 20th centuries because of the common practice of using toxic dyes during that period.

Chemists from Lipscomb University in Nashville, Tennessee, have also been studying Victorian books from that university’s library collection in order to identify and quantify levels of poisonous substances in the covers. They reported their initial findings this week at a meeting of the American Chemical Society in Denver. Using a combination of spectroscopic techniques, they found that several books had lead concentrations more than twice the limit imposed by the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

The Lipscomb effort was inspired by the University of Delaware’s Poison Book Project, established in 2019 as an interdisciplinary crowdsourced collaboration between university scientists and the Winterthur Museum, Garden, and Library. The initial objective was to analyze all the Victorian-era books in the Winterthur circulating and rare books collection for the presence of an arsenic compound called cooper acetoarsenite, an emerald green pigment that was very popular at the time to dye wallpaper, clothing, and cloth book covers. Book covers dyed with chrome yellow—favored by Vincent van Gogh— aka lead chromate, were also examined, and the project’s scope has since expanded worldwide.

The Poison Book Project is ongoing, but 50 percent of the 19th century cloth-case bindings tested so far contain lead in the cloth across a range of colors, as well as other highly toxic heavy metals: arsenic, chromium, and mercury. The French National Library’s affected books included the two-volume Ballads of Ireland by Edward Hayes (1855), an anthology of translated Romanian poetry (1856), and the Royal Horticultural Society’s book from 1862–1863.

Levels were especially high in those bindings that contain chrome yellow. However, the project researchers also determined that, for the moment at least, the chromium and lead in chrome yellow dyed book covers are still bound to the cloth. The emerald green pigment, on the other hand, is highly “friable,” meaning that the particles break apart under even small amounts of stress or friction, like rubbing or brushing up against the surface—and that pigment dust is hazardous to human health, particularly if inhaled.

Lipscomb University undergraduate Leila Ais cuts a sample from a book cover to test for toxic dyes.

Enlarge / Lipscomb University undergraduate Leila Ais cuts a sample from a book cover to test for toxic dyes.

Kristy Jones

The project lists several recommendations for the safe handling and storage of such books, such as wearing nitrile gloves—prolonged direct contact with arsenical green pigment, for instance, can lead to skin lesions and skin cancer—and not eating, drinking, biting one’s fingernails or touching one’s face during handling, as well as washing hands thoroughly and wiping down surfaces. Arsenical green books should be isolated for storage and removed from circulating collections, if possible. And professional conservators should work under a chemical fume hood to limit their exposure to arsenical pigment dust.

X-ray diffraction marks the spot

In 2022, Libscomb librarians heard about the Poison Book Project and approached the chemistry department about conducting a similar analytical survey of the 19th century books in the Beaman Library. “These old books with toxic dyes may be in universities, public libraries, and private collections,” said Abigail Hoermann, an undergraduate studying chemistry at Lipscomb University who is among those involved in the effort, led by chemistry professor Joseph Weinstein-Webb. “So, we want to find a way to make it easy for everyone to be able to find what their exposure is to these books, and how to safely store them.”

The team relied upon X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy to conduct a broad survey of the collection to determine the presence of arsenic or other heavy metals in the covers, followed by plasma optical emission spectroscopy to measure the concentrations in snipped samples from book covers where such poisons were found. They also took their analysis one step further by using X-ray diffraction to identify the specific pigment molecules within the detected toxic metals.

The results so far: Lead and chromium were present in several books in the Lipscomb collection, with high levels of lead and chromium in some of those samples. The highest lead level measured was more than twice the CDC limit, while the highest chromium concentration was six times the limit.

The Lipscomb library decided to seal any colored 19th century books not yet tested in plastic for storage pending analysis. Those books, now known to have covers colored with dangerous dyes, have been removed from public circulation and also sealed in plastic bags, per Poison Book Project recommendations.

The XRD testing showed that lead(II) chromate was present in a few of those heavy metals as well—a compound of the chrome yellow pigment. In fact, they were surprised to find that the book covers contained far more lead than chromium, given that there are equal amounts of both in lead(II) chromate. Further research is needed, but the working hypothesis is that there may be other lead-based pigments—lead(II) oxide, perhaps, or lead(II) sulfide—in the dyes used on those covers.

That book is poison: Even more Victorian covers found to contain toxic dyes Read More »

rocket-lab-entered-“hero-mode”-to-finish-mars-probes—now-it’s-up-to-blue-origin

Rocket Lab entered “hero mode” to finish Mars probes—now it’s up to Blue Origin

blue origin, Commercial space, escapade, heliophysics, launch, Mars, new glenn, rocket lab, Science, Space / /
The two spacecraft for NASA's ESCAPADE mission at Rocket Lab's factory in Long Beach, California.

Enlarge / The two spacecraft for NASA’s ESCAPADE mission at Rocket Lab’s factory in Long Beach, California.

Two NASA spacecraft built by Rocket Lab are on the road from California to Florida this weekend to begin preparations for launch on Blue Origin’s first New Glenn rocket.

These two science probes must launch between late September and mid-October to take advantage of a planetary alignment between Earth and Mars that only happens once every 26 months. NASA tapped Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’ space company, to launch the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) mission with a $20 million contract.

Last November, the space agency confirmed the $79 million ESCAPADE mission will launch on the inaugural flight of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket. With this piece of information, the opaque schedule for Blue Origin’s long-delayed first New Glenn mission suddenly became more clear.

The launch period opens on September 29. The two identical Mars-bound spacecraft for the ESCAPADE mission, nicknamed Blue and Gold, are now complete. Rocket Lab announced Friday that its manufacturing team packed the satellites and shipped them from their factory in Long Beach, California. Over the weekend, they arrived at a clean room facility just outside the gates of NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, where technicians will perform final checkups and load hydrazine fuel into both spacecraft, each a little more than a half-ton in mass.

Then, if Blue Origin is ready, ground teams will connect the ESCAPADE spacecraft with the New Glenn’s launch adapter, encapsulate the probes inside the payload fairing, and mount them on top of the rocket.

“There’s a whole bunch of checking and tests to make sure everything’s OK, and then we move into fueling, and then we integrate with the launch vehicle. So it’s a big milestone,” said Rob Lillis, the mission’s lead scientist from the University of California Berkeley’s Space Science Laboratory. “There have been some challenges along the way. This wasn’t easy to make happen on this schedule and for this cost. So we’re very happy to be where we are.”

Racing to the finish line

But there’s a lot for Blue Origin to accomplish in the next couple of months if the New Glenn rocket is going to be ready to send the ESCAPADE mission toward Mars in this year’s launch period. Blue Origin has not fully exercised a New Glenn rocket during a launch countdown, hasn’t pumped a full load of cryogenic propellants into the launch vehicle, and hasn’t test-fired a full complement of first stage or second stage engines.

These activities typically take place months before the first launch of a large new orbital-class rocket. For comparison, SpaceX test-fired its first fully assembled Falcon 9 rocket on the launch pad about three months before its first flight in 2010. United Launch Alliance completed a hot-fire test of its new Vulcan rocket on the launch pad last year, about seven months before its inaugural flight.

However, Blue Origin is making visible progress toward the first flight of New Glenn, after years of speculation and few outward signs of advancement. Earlier this year, the company raised a full-scale, 320-foot-tall (98-meter) New Glenn rocket on its launch pad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and loaded it with liquid nitrogen, a cryogenic substitute for the methane and liquid hydrogen fuel it will burn in flight.

Rocket Lab entered “hero mode” to finish Mars probes—now it’s up to Blue Origin Read More »

meteorites-give-the-moon-its-extremely-thin-atmosphere

Meteorites give the Moon its extremely thin atmosphere

astronomy, atmosphere, Impacts, meteors, planetary science, Science, the Moon / /

The exosphere gets the vapors —

Impacts that vaporize bits of the lunar surface maintain the Moon’s thin atmosphere.

–

Graphic of a spacecraft above a grey planetary body, with a distant sun in the background.

Enlarge / Artist’s rendition of the LADEE mission above the lunar surface.

The Moon may not have much of an atmosphere, mostly because of its weak gravitational field (whether it had a substantial atmosphere billions of years ago is debatable). But it is thought to presently be maintaining its tenuous atmosphere—also known as an exosphere—because of meteorite impacts.

Space rocks have been bombarding the Moon for its 4.5-billion-year existence. Researchers from MIT and the University of Chicago have now found that lunar soil samples collected by astronauts during the Apollo era show evidence that meteorites, from hulking meteors to micrometeoroids no bigger than specks of dust, have launched a steady flow of atoms into the exosphere.

Though some of these atoms escape into space and others fall back to the surface, those that do remain above the Moon create a thin atmosphere that keeps being replenished as more meteorites crash into the surface.

“Over long timescales, micrometeorite impact vaporization is the primary source of atoms in the lunar atmosphere,” the researchers said in a study recently published in Science Advances.

Ready for launch

When NASA sent its orbiter LADEE (Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer) to the Moon in 2013, the mission was intended to find out the origins of the Moon’s atmosphere. LADEE observed more atoms in the atmosphere during meteor showers, which suggested impacts had something to do with the atmosphere. However, it left questions about the mechanism that converts impact energy into a diffuse atmosphere.

To find these answers, a team of MIT and University of Chicago researchers, led by professor Nicole Nie of MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, needed to analyze the isotopes of elements in lunar soil that are most susceptible to the effects of micrometeoroid impacts. They chose potassium and rubidium.

Potassium and rubidium ions are especially prone to two processes: impact vaporization and ion sputtering.

Impact vaporization results from particles colliding at high speeds and generating extreme amounts of heat that excite atoms enough to vaporize the material they are in and send them flying. Ion sputtering involves high-energy impacts that set atoms free without vaporization. Atoms that are released by ion sputtering tend to have more energy and move faster than those released by impact vaporization.

Either of these can create and maintain the lunar atmosphere in the wake of meteorite impacts.

So, if atoms sent into the atmosphere by ion sputtering have an energy advantage, then why did the researchers find that most atoms in the atmosphere actually come from impact vaporization?

Touching back down

Since the lunar soil samples provided by NASA had previously had their lighter and heavier isotopes of potassium and rubidium quantified, Lie’s team used calculations to determine which collision process is more likely to keep different isotopes from fleeing the atmosphere.

The researchers found that atoms transferred to the atmosphere by ion sputtering are sent zooming at such high energies that they often reach escape velocity—the minimum velocity needed to escape the Moon’s already feeble gravity—and continue to travel out into space. Atoms that end up in the atmosphere can also be lost from the atmosphere, after all.

The fraction of atoms that reach escape velocity after impact vaporization depends on the temperature of those atoms. Lower energy levels associated with impact vaporization result in lower temperatures, which give atoms a lower chance of escape.

“Impact vaporization is the dominant long-term source of the lunar atmosphere, likely contributing more than 65 percent of atmospheric [potassium] atoms, with ion sputtering accounting for the rest,” Lie and her team said in the same study.

There are other ways atoms are lost from the lunar atmosphere. It is mostly lighter ions that tend to stick around in the exosphere, with ions falling back to the surface if they’re too heavy. Others are photoionized by electromagnetic radiation from the solar wind and often carried off into space by solar wind particles.

What we’ve learned about the lunar atmosphere through lunar soil could influence studies of other bodies. Impact vaporization has already been found to launch atoms into the exosphere of Mercury, which is thinner than the Moon’s. Studying Martian soil, which may land on Earth with sample return missions in the future, could also give more insight into how meteorite impacts affect its atmosphere.

As we approach a new era of manned lunar missions, the Moon may have more to tell us about where its atmosphere comes from—and where it goes.

Science Advances, 2024.  DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adm7074

Meteorites give the Moon its extremely thin atmosphere Read More »

passing-part-of-a-medical-licensing-exam-doesn’t-make-chatgpt-a-good-doctor

Passing part of a medical licensing exam doesn’t make ChatGPT a good doctor

AI, chatgpt, diagnosis, medicine, Science / /
Smiling doctor discussing medical results with a woman.

Enlarge / For now, “you should see a doctor” remains good advice.

ChatGPT was able to pass some of the United States Medical Licensing Exam (USMLE) tests in a study done in 2022. This year, a team of Canadian medical professionals checked to see if it’s any good at actual doctoring. And it’s not.

ChatGPT vs. Medscape

“Our source for medical questions was the Medscape questions bank,” said Amrit Kirpalani, a medical educator at the Western University in Ontario, Canada, who led the new research into ChatGPT’s performance as a diagnostic tool. The USMLE contained mostly multiple-choice test questions; Medscape has full medical cases based on real-world patients, complete with physical examination findings, laboratory test results, and so on.

The idea behind it is to make those cases challenging for medical practitioners due to complications like multiple comorbidities, where two or more diseases are present at the same time, and various diagnostic dilemmas that make the correct answers less obvious. Kirpalani’s team turned 150 of those Medscape cases into prompts that ChatGPT could understand and process.

This was a bit of a challenge because OpenAI, the company that made ChatGPT, has a restriction against using it for medical advice, so a prompt to straight-up diagnose the case didn’t work. This was easily bypassed, though, by telling the AI that diagnoses were needed for an academic research paper the team was writing. The team then fed it various possible answers, copy/pasted all the case info available at Medscape, and asked ChatGPT to provide the rationale behind its chosen answers.

It turned out that in 76 out of 150 cases, ChatGPT was wrong. But the chatbot was supposed to be good at diagnosing, wasn’t it?

Special-purpose tools

At the beginning of 2024. Google published a study on the Articulate Medical Intelligence Explorer (AMIE), a large language model purpose-built to diagnose diseases based on conversations with patients. AMIE outperformed human doctors in diagnosing 303 cases sourced from New England Journal of Medicine and ClinicoPathologic Conferences. And AMIE is not an outlier; during the last year, there was hardly a week without published research showcasing an AI performing amazingly well in diagnosing cancer and diabetes, and even predicting male infertility based on blood test results.

The difference between such specialized medical AIs and ChatGPT, though, lies in the data they have been trained on. “Such AIs may have been trained on tons of medical literature and may even have been trained on similar complex cases as well,” Kirpalani explained. “These may be tailored to understand medical terminology, interpret diagnostic tests, and recognize patterns in medical data that are relevant to specific diseases or conditions. In contrast, general-purpose LLMs like ChatGPT are trained on a wide range of topics and lack the deep domain expertise required for medical diagnosis.”

Passing part of a medical licensing exam doesn’t make ChatGPT a good doctor Read More »

rocket-report:-ula-is-losing-engineers;-spacex-is-launching-every-two-days

Rocket Report: ULA is losing engineers; SpaceX is launching every two days

falcon 9, Federal Aviation Administration, launch, NASA, rocket lab, rocket report, russia, Science, Space, starship, stoke space, united launch alliance / /

Every other day —

The first missions of Stoke Space’s reusable Nova rocket will fly in expendable mode.

–

A Falcon 9 booster returns to landing at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station following a launch Thursday with two WorldView Earth observation satellites for Maxar.

Enlarge / A Falcon 9 booster returns to landing at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station following a launch Thursday with two WorldView Earth observation satellites for Maxar.

Welcome to Edition 7.07 of the Rocket Report! SpaceX has not missed a beat since the Federal Aviation Administration gave the company a green light to resume Falcon 9 launches after a failure last month. In 19 days, SpaceX has launched 10 flights of the Falcon 9 rocket, taking advantage of all three of its Falcon 9 launch pads. This is a remarkable cadence in its own right, but even though it’s a small sample size, it is especially impressive right out of the gate after the rocket’s grounding.

As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

A quick turnaround for Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab launched its 52nd Electron rocket on August 11 from its private spaceport on Mahia Peninsula in New Zealand, Space News reports. The company’s light-class Electron rocket deployed a small radar imaging satellite into a mid-inclination orbit for Capella Space. This was the shortest turnaround between two Rocket Lab missions from its primary launch base in New Zealand, coming less than nine days after an Electron rocket took off from the same pad with a radar imaging satellite for the Japanese company Synspective. Capella’s Acadia 3 satellite was originally supposed to launch in July, but Capella requested a delay to perform more testing of its spacecraft. Rocket Lab swapped its place in the Electron launch sequence and launched the Synspective mission first.

Now, silence at the launch pad … Rocket Lab hailed the swap as an example of the flexibility provided by Electron, as well as the ability to deliver payloads to specific orbits that are not feasible with rideshare missions, according to Space News. For this tailored launch service, Rocket Lab charges a premium launch price over the price of launching a small payload on a SpaceX rideshare mission. However, SpaceX’s rideshare launches gobble up the lion’s share of small satellites within Rocket Lab’s addressable market. On Friday, a Falcon 9 rocket is slated to launch 116 small payloads into polar orbit. Rocket Lab, meanwhile, projects just one more launch before the end of September and expects to perform 15 to 18 Electron launches this year, a record for the company but well short of the 22 it forecasted earlier in the year. Rocket Lab says customer readiness is the reason it will be far short of projections.

The easiest way to keep up with Eric Berger’s space reporting is to sign up for his newsletter, we’ll collect his stories in your inbox.

Defense contractors teaming up on solid rockets. Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics are joining forces to kickstart solid rocket motor production, announcing a strategic teaming agreement today that could see new motors roll off the line as early as 2025, Breaking Defense reports. The new agreement could position a third vendor to enter into the ailing solid rocket motor industrial base, which currently only includes L3Harris subsidiary Aerojet Rocketdyne and Northrop Grumman in the United States. Both companies have struggled to meet demands from weapons makers like Lockheed and RTX, which are in desperate need of solid rocket motors for products such as Javelin or the PAC-3 missiles used by the Patriot missile defense system.

Pressure from startups … Demand for solid rocket motors has skyrocketed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the United States and its partners sought to backfill stocks of weapons like Javelin and Stinger, as well as provide motors to meet growing needs in the space domain. Although General Dynamics has kept its interest in the solid rocket motor market quiet until now, several defense tech startups, such as Ursa Major Technologies, Anduril, and X-Bow Systems, have announced plans to enter the market. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Going polar with crew. SpaceX will fly the first human spaceflight over the Earth’s poles, possibly before the end of this year, Ars reports. The private Crew Dragon mission will be led by a Chinese-born cryptocurrency entrepreneur named Chun Wang, and he will be joined by a polar explorer, a roboticist, and a filmmaker whom he has befriended in recent years. The “Fram2” mission, named after the Norwegian research ship Fram, will launch into a polar corridor from SpaceX’s launch facilities in Florida and fly directly over the north and south poles. The three- to five-day mission is being timed to fly over Antarctica near the summer solstice in the Southern Hemisphere, to afford maximum lighting.

Wang’s inclination is Wang’s prerogative … Wang told Ars he wanted to try something new, and flying a polar mission aligned with his interests in cold places on Earth. He’s paying the way on a commercial basis, and SpaceX in recent years has demonstrated it can launch satellites into polar orbit from Cape Canaveral, Florida, something no one had done in more than 50 years. The highest-inclination flight ever by a human spacecraft was the Soviet Vostok 6 mission in 1963 when Valentina Tereshkova’s spacecraft reached 65.1 degrees. Now, Fram2 will fly repeatedly and directly over the poles.

Rocket Report: ULA is losing engineers; SpaceX is launching every two days Read More »

explosion-of-cicada-eating-mites-has-the-state-of-illinois-scratching

Explosion of cicada-eating mites has the state of Illinois scratching

CDC, cicadas, health, itch mites, mites, outbreak, rash, Science / /

Attack of the mites —

The good news: There’s little risk beyond the rash. The bad: The rash is awful.

–

A cicada from a 17-year cicada brood clings to a tree on May 29, 2024, in Park Ridge, Illinois. The state experienced an emergence of cicadas from Brood XIII and Brood XIX simultaneously. This rare occurrence hasn't taken place since 1803.

Enlarge / A cicada from a 17-year cicada brood clings to a tree on May 29, 2024, in Park Ridge, Illinois. The state experienced an emergence of cicadas from Brood XIII and Brood XIX simultaneously. This rare occurrence hasn’t taken place since 1803.

A plague of parasitic mites has descended upon Illinois in the wake of this year’s historic crop of cicadas, leaving residents with raging rashes and incessant itching.

The mighty attack follows the overlapping emergence of the 17-year Brood XIII and the 13-year Brood XIX this past spring, a specific co-emergence that only occurs every 221 years. The cacophonous boom in cicadas sparked an explosion of mites, which can feast on various insects, including the developing eggs of periodical cicadas. But, when the mites’ food source fizzles out, the mites bite any humans in their midst in hopes of finding their next meal. While the mites cannot live on humans, their biting leads to scratching. The mite, Pyemotes herfsi, is aptly dubbed the “itch mite.”

“You can’t see them, you can’t feel them, they’re always here,” Jennifer Rydzewski, an ecologist for the Forest Preserve District of DuPage County, told Chicago outlet The Daily Herald. “But because of the cicadas, they have a food source [and] their population has exploded.”

The mites are around 0.2 millimeters in length and very difficult to see with the naked eye, according to agriculture experts at Pennsylvania State University. They have four pairs of legs and are tan with a reddish tinge. Female itch mites can produce up to 250 offspring, which emerge from her abdomen as adults. Emerged adult offspring quickly mate, with the males then dying off and the newly fertilized females dispersing to find their own food source.

Itchy outbreak

Besides “itch mites” these parasites have also been called the “oak leaf itch mite” or “oak leaf gall mite,” because they have often been found feasting on the larvae of oak gall midges. These midges are a type of fly that lays eggs on oak trees. The resulting larvae feast on the tree, spurring the formation of unusual growths (galls) around the larvae.

The first known outbreak of itch mites in the US occurred in Kansas in August 2004. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment had called in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to help investigate a puzzling outbreak of rashes in Crawford County. At the start, 300 residents in the small city of Pittsburg reported extremely itchy rashes, primarily on the limbs, neck, and face. The rashes looked similar to those from insect bites, but few of the affected people recalled being bitten by anything.

With the help of entomologists, outbreak investigators pinned the rashes to the itch mites. The area had experienced a mild winter and cooler summer temps, leading to an explosion of oak gall midges and subsequent infestation of oak galls. A detailed investigation determined that county residents were nearly four times more likely to have an itchy rash if they had a pin oak tree on their property. Once the itch mites invade a gall-infected oak tree, more than 16,000 mites can emerge from the galls on a single leaf. The mites can then drop from trees and are even small enough to be carried by the wind, giving them ample opportunity to find their way onto humans.

By the end of the outbreak, investigators estimated that 54 percent of the roughly 38,000 residents in Crawford County—that is, around 20,500 people—had been bitten by the mites.

Profuse parasites

But oak gall midges are far from the only insect the itch mites feed upon. In 2007, the emergence of a particularly prolific brood of cicadas led to an outbreak of itch mites in the Chicago area. The Illinois Department of Public Health noted that the “proposed common name ‘oak leaf itch mite’ for P. herfsi is misleading and contributed to the delay in identifying the causative agent of the 2007 Illinois outbreak.” The department noted that at least five insect orders and nine insect families are prey to the mites.

In the US, cases of itch mite rashes have been documented in at least Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas.

If bitten, humans develop an itchy red rash, typically with pimple-like bumps, which can stick around for up to two weeks. The rash develops between 10 to 16 hours after exposure, which can make it difficult to identify the source. But, the mites typically don’t produce groupings of bite marks like bedbugs or burrowing like scabies.

To try to avoid rashes, experts recommend wearing protective clothing when outside—including gloves while gardening or doing yard work—and washing clothes and showering after a potential exposure. The insect repellent DEET is often recommended, but anecdotal reports indicate DEET may not be entirely effective. If you already have a rash, the only thing to do is treat the symptoms with things like ice packs, soothing lotions (like calamine), oral antihistamines, over-the-counter hydrocortisone creams, and, if needed, prescription topical steroids. The good news is that the mites will not live on you and are not known to spread any diseases.

Explosion of cicada-eating mites has the state of Illinois scratching Read More »

big-name-drugs-see-price-drops-in-first-round-of-medicare-negotiations

Big-name drugs see price drops in first round of Medicare negotiations

Big pharma, drug prices, health, medicare, Pharmaceutical industry, PhRMA, price negotiations, Science / /

price cut —

If the prices were set in 2023, Medicare would have saved $6 billion.

–

Prescription drugs are displayed at NYC Discount Pharmacy in Manhattan on July 23, 2024.

Enlarge / Prescription drugs are displayed at NYC Discount Pharmacy in Manhattan on July 23, 2024.

In the first round of direct price negotiations between Medicare and drug manufacturers, prices for 10 expensive and commonly used drugs saw price cuts between 38 percent to 79 percent compared to their 2023 list prices, the White House and the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced Thursday. The new negotiated prices will take effect on January 1, 2026.

The 10 drugs that were up for negotiations are used to treat various conditions, from diabetes, psoriasis, blood clots, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease to blood cancers. About 9 million people with Medicare use at least one of the drugs on the list. In 2023, the 10 drugs accounted for $56.2 billion in total Medicare spending, or about 20 percent of total gross spending by Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage. But in 2018, spending on the 10 drugs was just about $20 billion, rising to 46 billion in 2022—a 134 percent rise. In 2022, Medicare enrollees collectively paid $3.4 billion in out-of-pocket costs for these drugs.

The 10 drugs as well as their use, 2023 costs, negotiated prices, and savings.

Enlarge / The 10 drugs as well as their use, 2023 costs, negotiated prices, and savings.

For now, it’s unclear how much the newly set prices will actually save those who have Medicare enrollees in 2026. Overall costs and out-of-pocket costs will depend on each member’s coverage plans and other drug spending. Additionally, in 2025, Medicare Part D enrollees will have their out-of-pocket drug costs capped at $2,000, which alone could significantly lower costs for some beneficiaries before the negotiated prices take effect.

If the newly negotiated prices took effect in 2023, HHS estimates it would have saved Medicare $6 billion. HHS also estimates that the prices will save Medicare enrollees $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket costs in 2026.

The price negotiations have been ongoing since last August when HHS announced the first 10 drugs up for negotiation. Medicare said it held three meetings with each of the drug manufacturers since then. For five drugs, the process of offers and counteroffers resulted in an agreed-upon price, with Medicare accepting revised counteroffers from drugmakers for four of the drugs. For the other five drugs, Medicare made final written offers on prices that were eventually accepted. If a drugmaker had rejected the offer, it would have either had to pay large fees or pull its drug from Medicare plans.

“The negotiations were comprehensive. They were intense. It took both sides to reach a good deal,” HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra told reporters Wednesday night.

“Price-setting scheme”

Both the price negotiations and the $2,000 cap are provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law by President Biden in 2022. In a statement Thursday, Biden highlighted that Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote to pass the legislation along party lines and that they are both committed to fighting Big Pharma. “[T]he Vice President and I are not backing down,” Biden said. “We will continue the fight to make sure all Americans can pay less for prescription drugs and to give more breathing room for American families.”

“Today’s announcement will be lifechanging for so many of our loved ones across the nation,” Harris said in her own statement, “and we are not stopping here.” She noted that the list of drugs up for Medicare negotiation will increase in each year, with an additional 15 drugs added in 2025.

In a scathing response to the negotiated prices, Steve Ubl—president of the industry group Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)—called the negotiations a “price-setting scheme” and warned that patients would be disappointed. “There are no assurances patients will see lower out-of-pocket costs because the [IRA] did nothing to rein in abuses by insurance companies and PBMs who ultimately decide what medicines are covered and what patients pay at the pharmacy,” Ubl said. He went on to warn that IRA “fundamentally alters” the incentives for drug development and, as such, fewer drugs will be developed to treat cancer and many other conditions.

In a December 2023 report, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that “over the next 30 years, 13 fewer new drugs (of 1,300 estimated new drugs) will come to market as a result of the law.”

The pharmaceutical industry has unleashed a bevy of legal challenges to the negotiations, claiming they are unconstitutional. So far, it has lost every ruling.

Big-name drugs see price drops in first round of Medicare negotiations Read More »

an-asteroid-wiped-out-the-dinosaurs,-not-a-comet,-new-study-finds

An asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs, not a comet, new study finds

asteroids, Chicxulub impact, Science / /

It came from outer space —

Analysis of ruthenium isotopes showed the impactor was a carbonaceous-type asteroid.

–

Artist impression of a large asteroid impacting on Earth such as the Chicxulub event that caused the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, 66 million years ago.

Enlarge / Artist impression of a large asteroid impacting on Earth, such as the Chicxulub event that caused the end-Cretaceous mass extinction 66 million years ago.

Mark Garlick

Some 66 million years ago, an errant asteroid wiped out three-quarters of all plant and animal species on Earth, most notably taking down the dinosaurs. That has long been the scientific consensus. However, three years ago, Harvard astronomers offered an alternative hypothesis: The culprit may have been a fragment of a comet thrown off-course by Jupiter’s gravity and ripped apart by the Sun.

Now an international team of scientists have reaffirmed the original hypothesis, according to a new paper published in the journal Science. They analyzed ruthenium isotopes from the Chicxulub impact crater and concluded the impact was due to a carbonaceous-type asteroid, likely hailing from beyond Jupiter.

As previously reported, the most widely accepted explanation for what triggered that catastrophic mass extinction is known as the “Alvarez hypothesis,” after the late physicist Luis Alvarez and his geologist son, Walter. In 1980, they proposed that the extinction event may have been caused by a massive asteroid or comet hitting the Earth. They based this conclusion on their analysis of sedimentary layers at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (the K-Pg boundary, formerly known as the K-T boundary) found all over the world, which included unusually high concentrations of iridium—a metal more commonly found in asteroids than on Earth. (That same year, Dutch geophysicist Jan Smit independently arrived at a similar conclusion.)

The 66-million-year-old Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary layer at Stevns Klint in Denmark.

Enlarge / The 66-million-year-old Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary layer at Stevns Klint in Denmark.

Philippe Claeys

Since then, scientists have identified a likely impact site: a large crater in Chicxulub, Mexico, in the Yucatan Peninsula, first discovered by geophysicists in the late 1970s. The impactor that created it was sufficiently large (between 11 and 81 kilometers, or 7 to 50 miles) to melt, shock, and eject granite from deep inside the Earth, probably causing a megatsunami and ejecting vaporized rock and sulfates into the atmosphere.

This in turn had a devastating effect on the global climate, leading to mass extinction. In 2022, scientists suggested that one reason so many species perished while others survived may have been because the impact occurred in the spring (at least in the Northern Hemisphere), thereby interrupting the annual reproductive cycles of many species.

In 2016, a scientific drilling project led by the International Ocean Discovery Program took core samples from the crater’s peak ring, confirming that the rock had been subjected to immense pressure over a period of minutes. A 2020 paper concluded that the impactor struck at the worst possible angle and caused maximum damage. It has been estimated that the impact would have released energy over a billion times higher than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

Asteroid or comet?

Harvard’s Avi Loeb and his then-undergraduate student Amir Siraj challenged the asteroid-as-impactor hypothesis in a 2021 paper, proposing instead that the impact was caused by a special kind of comet—originating from a field of debris at the edge of our solar system known as the Oort cloud—that was thrown off course by Jupiter’s gravity toward the Sun. The Sun’s powerful tidal forces then ripped off pieces off the comet—akin to what happened to the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 when it crashed into Jupiter in 1994—and one of the larger fragments of this “cometary shrapnel” eventually collided with Earth.

Loeb and Siraj’s analysis was based on numerical simulations to calculate the flux of long-period comets in our solar system. They found that events like the one described above should happen frequently enough and produce enough sufficiently large fragments to result in a significantly higher impact rate of Chicxulub-sized impactors than the background comet or asteroid populations. They argued that their comet hypothesis would also explain the Chicxulub impactor’s unusual composition of carbonaceous chondrite—rare for asteroids but more common for long-period comets—which is consistent with an Oort cloud origin rather than the main asteroid belt.

This latest paper addresses that latter point in particular. Mario Fischer-Gödde of the University of Cologne in Germany and his co-authors took samples from the K-Pg boundary layer from a site at Stevns Klint in Denmark and analyzed the ruthenium isotopes via plasma mass spectrometry. They did the same for samples taken from the sites of five other known asteroid impacts over the last 541 million years, as well as ancient Archean samples (between 3.5 to 3.2 billion years old).

Fischer-Gödde et al. concluded that the ruthenium signatures in the K-Pg samples were a close match to asteroids known as carbonaceous chondrites, so the impact most likely resulted from a C-type asteroid that hailed from the outer Solar System. They were able to rule out the possibility of a comet impactor proposed by Loeb and Siraj since the ruthenium data was inconsistent with that hypothesis. Most of the other samples had ruthenium isotope signatures consistent with salicaceous (S-type) asteroids from the inner Solar System, although the ancient Archean samples were also consist with a C-type asteroid.

Science, 2024. DOI: 10.1126/science.adk4868  (About DOIs).

An asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs, not a comet, new study finds Read More »

facing-“financial-crisis,”-russia-on-pace-for-lowest-launch-total-in-6-decades

Facing “financial crisis,” Russia on pace for lowest launch total in 6 decades

roscosmos, russian space program, Science, Space / /

SMO fallout —

“This forces us to build a new economy in severe conditions.”

–

A Soyuz 2.1b rocket booster with a Frigate upper stage block, the Meteor-M 2-1 meteorological satellite, and 18 small satellites launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome.

Enlarge / A Soyuz 2.1b rocket booster with a Frigate upper stage block, the Meteor-M 2-1 meteorological satellite, and 18 small satellites launched from the Vostochny Cosmodrome.

Yuri Smityuk/TASS

A Progress cargo supply spacecraft launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan early on Thursday, local time. The mission was successful, and Russia has launched hundreds of these spacecraft before. So it wasn’t all that big of a deal, except for one small detail: This was just Russia’s ninth orbital launch of the year.

At this pace, it appears that the country’s space program is on pace for the fewest number of Russian or Soviet space launches in a year since 1961. That was when Yuri Gagarin went to space at the dawn of the human spaceflight era.

There are myriad reasons for this, including a decision by Western space powers to distance themselves from the Russian space corporation, Roscosmos, after the invasion of Ukraine. This has had disastrous effects on the Russian space program, but only recently have we gotten any insight into how deep those impacts have cut.

In recent weeks, the first deputy director of Roscosmos, Andrei Yelchaninov, has given a series of interviews to Russian news outlets. (Most Russian media are state-owned or state-controlled, so none of this information can be independently verified, but it is interesting nonetheless.) One of the most revealing of these interviews was given to national news agency Interfax. It was translated for Ars by Rob Mitchell and provides perspective on Russia’s space crisis and how the country will seek to rebound.

A financial crisis

“We are in an ongoing process of emerging from financial crisis, and it’s complicated,” Yelchaninov told Interfax. “I would remind you that contract cancellations by unfriendly contacts cost Roscosmos 180 billion rubles ($2.1 billion US). This forces us to build a new economy in severe conditions.”

As a result of this, Russia’s space industry has been operating at a loss in recent years and may not begin to break even until 2025. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also came as United Launch Alliance finally ended its practice of purchasing RD-180 rocket engines, manufactured by NPO Energomash. This fact, in concert with decreased commercial demand for Russia’s Proton and Soyuz rockets, has forced the Russian government to subsidize these elements of Roscosmos.

These companies “are currently in a financial revitalization procedure and have received State subsidies several years ago in order to maintain viability, and are now seeking new sales markets and additional workload,” Yelchaninov said. Asked about possibly selling more Russian-made engines to the United States, Yelchaninov replied, “That issue is not on the agenda.”

Russia had to look to new sales markets after what Yelchaninov euphemistically refers to as the “special military operation,” which is Russia’s term of art for its war against Ukraine. “After the beginning of the SMO we were forced to shift from our traditional partners in Europe and the US, with whom we had many years of interaction, for new international directions including the countries in Africa, the Mideast, and Southeast Asia,” he said.

During the interview, Yelchaninov confirmed that Russia has committed to participating in the International Space Station program until “at least” 2028. NASA is pushing to extend the operational lifetime of the station to 2030, at which point the United States plans to de-orbit the aging laboratory using a modified Crew Dragon spacecraft.

Rather than working with the United States in space, Yelchaninov said that Russia’s space program would focus on cooperation with China rather than competition there. “The key project of our bilateral cooperation is creating an International Lunar Station to which we are jointly striving to attract additional international partners,” he said.

Big plans, big delays?

In addition, Russia is also continuing the development of its oft-delayed “Russian Orbital Station,” or ROS. The current plans call for the launch of a scientific and power module in 2027, with the core of the station (four modules) to be launched into orbit by 2030. Further expansions will take place in the early 2030s. It should be noted, however, that these dates can charitably be described as aspirational.

Even more speculatively, Yelchaninov mentioned several future rocket projects, including the Amur-LNG vehicle and the Corona rocket.

In 2020, Russia aimed to debut the methane-powered Amur rocket with a reusable first stage by 2026. This vehicle was developed to be cost-competitive with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. Yelchaninov now said Roscosmos intends to develop first-stage reuse in two phases. In the first of these, a Grasshopper-like program would test landing technologies before moving to experiments with a complete booster. But don’t expect to see Amur any time soon. Yelchaninov revealed that Russian and Kazakh officials are still in the design phase of a launch site at Baikonur, rather than actively building anything.

Yelchaninov also said Roscosmos would like to develop a single-stage-to-orbit rocket named Corona in the future. This appears to be an updated take on a Russian rocket design that is more than three decades old.

“We have already studied whether or not a new booster of this type will be in demand,” Yelchaninov said. “The answer is obvious—we are reducing the cost of access to space by more than an order of magnitude and discovering entirely new opportunities for super-operational delivery of cargo, and we are moving toward an ideology of space as a service.”

I would not hold my breath on seeing Corona fly.

Facing “financial crisis,” Russia on pace for lowest launch total in 6 decades Read More »