Science

someone-finally-cracked-the-“silk-dress-cryptogram”-after-10-years

Someone finally cracked the “Silk Dress cryptogram” after 10 years

code-breaking, cryptology, Science / /
page of antique paper with coded text found in silk dress

Enlarge / “Paul Ramify loamy event false new event” was one of the lines written on two sheets of paper found in a hidden pocket.

Sara Rivers Cofield

In December 2013, a curator and archaeologist purchased an antique silk dress with an unusual feature: a hidden pocket that held two sheets of paper with mysterious coded text written on them. People have been trying to crack the code ever since, and someone finally succeeded: University of Manitoba data analyst Wayne Chan. He discovered that the text is actually coded telegraph messages describing the weather used by the US Army and (later) the weather bureau. Chan outlined all the details of his decryption in a paper published in the journal Cryptologia.

“When I first thought I cracked it, I did feel really excited,” Chan told the New York Times. “It is probably one of the most complex telegraphic codes that I’ve ever seen.”

Sara Rivers-Cofield purchased the bronze-colored silk bustle dress with striped rust velvet accents for $100 at an antique shop in Maine, noting on her blog that it was in a style that was fashionable in the mid-1880s among middle-class or well-off women. There wasn’t any fitted boning in the bodice, so the dress was meant to be worn with a corset. It had a draped skirt and bustle with metal buttons decorated with an “Ophelia motif.” While the dress had been machine-stitched, the original buttons had been sewn by hand. A tag with the name “Bennett” was sewn into the bodice.

Sara Rivers-Cofield purchased the dress at an antique shop in Maine.

Enlarge / Sara Rivers-Cofield purchased the dress at an antique shop in Maine.

Sara Rivers Cofield

Rivers-Cofield also noted the ingenious structure of the bustle, which used built-in channels for flexible wires to achieve just the right amount of puff, combined with strategic tacking to keep “the bustle bunched in all the right places.” One bustle pin was still in place, and Rivers-Cofield thought it was used to pull up a layer of the overskirt to expose a bit of the hem ruffle “for a little peek-a-boo with onlookers.” Such pins often show up during excavations of 19th century sites, so she was delighted to find one in situ. “There is one Baltimore laundry site in particular where drainage pipes were found absolutely clogged with pins, buttons, and other clothing attachments—as if launderers put the clothes through a rough washing process … even if removable pins were still on them,” she wrote.

But an even more intriguing discovery awaited. When Rivers-Cofield turned the dress inside-out, she found a small hidden pocket. Many women’s dresses of the era had pockets, but this one would only be accessible by hiking up the overskirt. She puzzled over why anyone would make a pocket so inaccessible and thought it might have been used to smuggle messages. Hidden inside, she found two sheets of wadded-up translucent paper measuring about 7.5 inches by 11 inches. The text on each sheet consisted of 12 lines of recognizable common English words—except they made no sense. “Bismark omit leafage buck bank”? “Paul Ramify loamy event false new event”?

No wonder Rivers-Cofield’s blogged reaction was a simple “What the—?”  She thought it might be some kind of list or a writing exercise and posted all the details on her blog, hoping that “there’s some decoding prodigy out there looking for a project.” It became known as the “Silk Dress cryptogram.” German cryptoblogger Klaus Schmeh noted in 2017 that he considered it to be among the top 50 such coded messages yet unsolved.

Hidden pocket of dress.

Enlarge / Hidden pocket of dress.

Sarah Rovers-Cofield

Schmeh first wrote about the Silk Dress cryptogram in 2014 and invited readers to weigh in. By 2017, he had concluded that the text was probably a telegram—possibly several telegrams—and that the words were chosen from an 1880s code book. There was a numeral at the start of most lines that seemed to indicate the number of words, and each sheet had what appeared to be the time of day written at the top.

Chan started working on the code in the summer of 2018 but didn’t initially make much progress and abandoned the project a few months later. He picked up the challenge again toward the end of 2022 and thought it might be a telegraphic code. With the invention of the telegraph, “For the first time in history, observations from distant locations could be rapidly disseminated, collated, and analyzed to provide a synopsis of the state of weather across an entire nation,” Chan wrote in his paper. But it was expensive to send telegrams since companies charged by the word, so codes were developed to condense as much information into as few words as possible.

Someone finally cracked the “Silk Dress cryptogram” after 10 years Read More »

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Blockbuster weight-loss drugs slashed from NC state plan over ballooning costs

GLP-1, health, insurance, insurance coverage, North Carolina, prescription drug, prescription drug pricing, Science, wegovy, weight loss / /

Patients vs. profits —

The plan spent $102M on the weight-loss drugs last year, 10% of total drug costs.

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Wegovy is an injectable prescription weight loss medicine that has helped people with obesity.

Enlarge / Wegovy is an injectable prescription weight loss medicine that has helped people with obesity.

The health plan for North Carolina state employees will stop covering blockbuster GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, including Wegovy and Zepbound, because—according to the plan’s board of trustees—the drugs are simply too expensive.

Last week, the board voted 4-3 to end all coverage of GLP-1 medications for weight loss on April 1. If the coverage is dropped, it is believed to be the first major state health plan to end coverage of the popular but pricey weight-loss drugs. The plan will continue to pay for GLP-1 medications prescribed to treat diabetes, including Ozempic.

The North Carolina State Health Plan covers nearly 740,000 people, including teachers, state employees, retirees, and their family members. In 2023, monthly premiums from the plan ranged from $25 for base coverage for an individual to up to $720 for premium family coverage. Members prescribed Wegovy paid a co-pay of between $30 and $50 per month for the drug, while the plan’s cost was around $800 a month.

In 2021, just under 2,800 members were taking the drugs for weight loss, but in 2023, the number soared to nearly 25,000 members, costing the plan $102 million. That’s about 10 percent of what the plan pays for all prescription drugs combined. If the current coverage continued, the plan’s pharmacy benefit manager, CVS Caremark, estimated that by 2025, the plan’s premiums would have to rise $48.50 across the board to offset the costs of the weight-loss drugs.

Without insurance, the list price of Wegovy is $1,349 per month, totaling $16,188 for a year of treatment. The average reported salary for members of North Carolina’s health plan is $56,431.

Last October, the board voted to grandfather the 25,000 or so current users, maintaining coverage for them moving forward, but then to stop offering new coverage to members. However, according to CVS Caremark, the move would mean losing a 40 percent rebate from Wegovy’s maker, Novo Nordisk. This would be a loss of $54 million, bringing projected 2024 costs to $139 million.

A spokesperson for Novo Nordisk called the vote to end coverage entirely “irresponsible,” according to a statement given to media. “We do not support insurers or bureaucrats inserting their judgment in these medically driven decisions,” the statement continued.

While the costs of weight-loss drugs are high everywhere, the pricing is particularly bitter for North Carolinians—Novo Nordisk manufactures Wegovy in Clayton, North Carolina, southeast of Raleigh.

“It certainly adds insult to injury,” Ardis Watkins, executive director of the State Employees Association of North Carolina, a group that lobbies on behalf of state health plan members, according to The New York Times. “Our economic climate that has been made so attractive to businesses to locate here is being used to manufacture a drug that is wildly marked up.”

While it appears to be the first time such a large state health plan has dropped coverage of the weight-loss drugs, North Carolina is not alone in wrestling with the costs. The University of Texas’ employee plan ceased coverage of Wegovy and Saxenda, another weight-loss drug, in September. Connecticut’s state health plan, meanwhile, added restrictions on how members could get a prescription covered. Some state health plans that cover GLP-1 medications for weight-loss have prior authorization procedures to try to limit use.

“Every state has been wrestling with it, every professional association that my staff is a part of has had some discussion about it,” Sam Watts, director of the North Carolina State Health Plan, told Bloomberg. “But to our knowledge, we’re the first major state health plan to act on it.”

Blockbuster weight-loss drugs slashed from NC state plan over ballooning costs Read More »

we-keep-making-the-same-mistakes-with-spreadsheets,-despite-bad-consequences

We keep making the same mistakes with spreadsheets, despite bad consequences

Science, spreadsheets, syndication / /

Not excelling at Excel —

Errors with spreadsheets are not only frustrating but can have serious consequences.

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A dude being sad about his spreadhseet

Spreadsheet blunders aren’t just frustrating personal inconveniences. They can have serious consequences. And in the last few years alone, there have been a myriad of spreadsheet horror stories.

In August 2023, the Police Service of Northern Ireland apologized for a data leak of “monumental proportions” when a spreadsheet that contained statistics on the number of officers it had and their rank was shared online in response to a freedom of information request.

There was a second overlooked tab on the spreadsheet that contained the personal details of 10,000 serving police officers.

A series of spreadsheet errors disrupted the recruitment of trainee anesthetists in Wales in late 2021. The Anaesthetic National Recruitment Office (ANRO), the body responsible for their selection and recruitment, told all the candidates for positions in Wales they were “unappointable”, despite some of them achieving the highest interview scores.

The blame fell on the process of consolidating interview data. Spreadsheets from different areas lacked standardization in formatting, naming conventions, and overall structure. To make matters worse, data was manually copied and pasted between various spreadsheets, a time-consuming and error-prone process.

ANRO only discovered the blunder when rejected applicants questioned their dismissal letters. The fact that not a single candidate seemed acceptable for Welsh positions should have been a red flag. No testing or validation was apparently applied to the crucial spreadsheet, a simple step that could have prevented this critical error.

In 2021, Crypto.com, an online provider of cryptocurrency, accidentally transferred $10.5 million (£8.3 million) instead of $100 into the account of an Australian customer due to an incorrect number being entered on a spreadsheet.

The clerk who processed the refund for the Australian customer had wrongly entered her bank account number in the refund field in a spreadsheet. It was seven months before the mistake was spotted. The recipient attempted to flee to Malaysia but was stopped at an Australian airport carrying a large amount of cash.

In 2022, Íslandsbanki, a state-owned Icelandic bank, sold a portion of shares that were badly undervalued due to a spreadsheet error. When consolidating assets from different spreadsheets, the spreadsheet data was not “cleaned” and formatted properly. The bank’s shares were subsequently undervalued by as much as £16 million.

The dark matter of corporate IT

The above is just a fraction of the spreadsheet errors that are regularly made by various organizations.

Spreadsheets represent unknown risks in the form of errors, privacy violations, trade secrets, and compliance violations. Yet they are also critical for the way many organizations make their decisions. For this reason, they have been described by experts as the “dark matter” of corporate IT.

Industry studies show that 90 percent of spreadsheets containing more than 150 rows have at least one major mistake.

This is understandable because spreadsheet errors are easy to make but difficult to spot. My own research has shown that inspecting the spreadsheet’s code is the most effective way of debugging them, but this approach still only catches between 60 and 80 percent of all errors.

As many as 9 out of 10 spreadsheets are estimated to contain errors.

As many as 9 out of 10 spreadsheets are estimated to contain errors.

Spreadsheets’ appeal doesn’t just exist in the financial world. They are indispensable in engineering, data science, and even in sending robots to Mars. The key to their success is their flexibility.

Spreadsheet software is constantly evolving, with more features becoming available that increase their appeal. For instance, you can now automate many tasks in Excel (the most popular spreadsheet software) using Python scripting.

But given all of the aforementioned problems, isn’t it time for Excel and other spreadsheet software to be sidelined in favor of something more reliable?

Human error

The underlying cause of these spreadsheet problems is not the software but human error.

The issue is that most users don’t see the need to plan or test their work. Most users describe their first step in creating a new spreadsheet as merely jumping straight in and entering numbers or code directly.

Many of us don’t consider spreadsheets to warrant serious consideration. This means we become complacent and assume there is no need to test, validate, or verify our work.

Research on “cognitive load,” the amount of mental effort required for a task, shows that building complex spreadsheets demands as much concentration as a GP making a diagnosis. This intense mental strain makes mistakes more likely. But GPs study their profession for many years before becoming qualified, while most spreadsheet users are self-taught.

To break the cycle of repeated spreadsheet errors, there are several things organisations can do. First, introducing standardization would help to minimize confusion and mistakes. For example, this would mean consistent formatting, naming conventions, and data structures across spreadsheets.

Second, improving training is crucial. Equipping users with the knowledge and skills to build robust and accurate spreadsheets could help them identify and avoid pitfalls.

Finally, fostering a culture of critical thinking toward spreadsheets is vital. This would mean encouraging users to continually question calculations, validate their data sources, and double-check their work.

Simon Thorne is Senior Lecturer in Computing and ​Information Systems at Cardiff Metropolitan University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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gotta-go?-we’ve-finally-found-out-what-makes-urine-yellow

Gotta go? We’ve finally found out what makes urine yellow

biochemistry, Biology, Genomics, Science, urine / /

It isn’t from eating corn —

The yellow color comes from bacteria metabolizing waste from red blood cells.

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Image of a series of scientific sample tubes filled with yellow liquids.

There are many mysteries in life that we end up shrugging off. Why is urine yellow? It just is, right? Rather than flush that 125-year-old question down the toilet, scientists sought out the answer, discovering a previously unknown microbial enzyme was to blame.

The enzyme that has eluded us for so long is now known as bilirubin reductase. It was identified by researcher and assistant professor Brantley Hall of the University of Maryland, who was part of a team based at the university and the National Institutes of Health.

Bilirubin is an orange pigment released by red blood cells after they die. Gut microbes then use bilirubin reductase to break down bilirubin into colorless urobilinogen, which degrades into yellowish urobilin, giving urine that infamous hue. While urobilin previously had an association with the color of urine, the enzyme that starts the process by producing urobilinogen was unknown until now.

“Though it was previously thought that multiple enzymes were involved in the reduction of bilirubin, our results support the finding that a single enzyme performs the reduction of bilirubin to urobilinogen,” the research team said in a study recently published in Nature Microbiology.

Gut feeling

Because some gut bacteria had been known to reduce bilirubin, Hall and his team knew where to start but wanted to fill in the unknowns by finding out which particular species actually do this—and how. This meant they had to find the gene responsible for encoding bilirubin reductase.

Previous studies had found that the species Clostridiodes difficile was capable of reducing bilirubin (though the mechanism it used was unknown). Using C. difficile as a basis for comparison, the team cultured different species of gut bacteria and exposed them to bilirubin to see whether that bacteria could produce urobilinogen, detecting its presence using a fluorescence assay.

The fluorescence assay told Hall and his colleagues that there were nine strains within the tested species that they thought were capable of reducing bilirubin, although how these bacteria were breaking it down was still unclear.  After the fluorescence assay, the genomes of the most closely related strains were analyzed,  and several turned out to share a gene that encoded an enzyme that could reduce bilirubin—bilirubin reductase.

Bacterial strains that metabolized bilirubin using bilirubin reductase all came from species that were found to belong to a single clade (the researchers informally referred to it as the bilirubin reductase clade). Within that clade, most of these species are from the class Clostridia in the phylum Firmicutes, a phylum of bacteria important to gut health.

More than … you know

The discovery of bilirubin reductase goes beyond the origin of urine color. After identifying the enzyme, the researchers found out that, while bilirubin reductase is present in healthy adults, there is a deficit in newborns and adults with inflammatory bowel disease, which could eventually influence future treatments

By sequencing infant gut genomes, Hall and his team saw that bilirubin reductase was often missing during the first few months of life. Too much bilirubin building up in the blood turns the skin and the whites of the eyes yellow, a symptom known as jaundice. Most infants have some level of jaundice, but it usually goes away on its own.

The absence of bilirubin reductase is also associated with pigmented gallstones in adults with inflammatory bowel disease (inflammatory bowel disease or IBD is a general term that can refer to several different diagnoses). Sequencing adult gut genomes showed that there was a deficit of this enzyme in most patients with Crohn’s disease or ulcerative colitis whose gut genomes were sequenced.

“With the knowledge of the species, genes, and enzymes involved in bilirubin reduction, future research can now focus on the extent to which gut microbial bilirubin metabolism affects…the role of bilirubin reduction in health and disease,” the researchers said in the same study.

There is still more research to be done on bilirubin reductase and the health implications it could have. The team thinks there may be a link between the amount of urobilin produced in the body and insulin resistance, obesity, heart disease, and even heart failure. Next to that, we finally know why urine is yellow.

Nature Microbiology, 2023. DOI: 10.1038/s41564-023-01549-x

Gotta go? We’ve finally found out what makes urine yellow Read More »

air-pollution-from-canada’s-tar-sands-is-much-worse-than-we-thought

Air pollution from Canada’s tar sands is much worse than we thought

climate change, oil production, Science, syndication, tar sands / /
Aerial Views Of Oil Sands Operations

Enlarge / Aerial view of the Athabasca oil sands near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada.

Canada’s tar sands have gained infamy for being one of the world’s most polluting sources of oil, thanks to the large amounts of energy and water use required for their extraction. A new study says the operations are also emitting far higher levels of a range of air pollutants than previously known, with implications for communities living nearby and far downwind.

The research, published Thursday in Science, took direct measurements of organic carbon emissions from aircraft flying above the tar sands, also called oil sands, and found levels that were 20 to 64 times higher than what companies were reporting. Total organic carbon includes a wide range of compounds, some of which can contribute directly to hazardous air pollution locally and others that can react in the atmosphere to form small particulate matter, or PM 2.5, a dangerous pollutant that can travel long distances and lodge deep in the lungs.

The study found that tar sands operations were releasing as much of these pollutants as all other human-made sources in Canada combined. For certain classes of heavy organic compounds, which are more likely to form particulates downwind, the concentrations were higher than what’s generally found in large metropolises like Los Angeles.

“The absolute magnitude of those emissions were a lot higher than what we expected,” said John Liggio, a research scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada, the nation’s environmental regulatory agency, and a co-author on the study. Researchers at Yale University also contributed.

Seth Shonkoff, executive director of PSE Healthy Energy, an independent scientific research institute in California, who was not involved in the study, said the findings suggest air pollution from tar sands operations is more damaging to people’s health than previously known.

“I actually could hardly believe what I was reading,” Shonkoff said of the new study.

Over the last decade, a growing body of research has examined emissions of different air pollutants from oil and gas operations across the United States and Canada, and much of that has shown that industry estimates tend to undercount what’s being released, he said. “But the scale of this discrepancy is very surprising.”

Mark Cameron, vice president of external relations at the Pathways Alliance, an oil sands industry group, said in an email that the findings warrant further review and that “the oil sands industry measures emissions using standards set by Environment and Climate Change Canada and we look forward to working together to explore opportunities to further enhance our measurement practices.”

Air pollution from Canada’s tar sands is much worse than we thought Read More »

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Rocket Report: Iran reaches orbit; Chinese firm achieves impressive landing test

rocket report, Science, Space / /
First and second stages of Blue Origin's

Enlarge / First and second stages of Blue Origin’s “New Glenn” test vehicle.

Blue Origin

Welcome to Edition 6.28 of the Rocket Report! There’s a lot going on in the world of launch as always, but this week I want to take this space for a personal message. I have just announced the forthcoming publication of my second book, REENTRY, on the Falcon 9 rocket, Dragon spacecraft, and development of reusable launch. Full details here. I worked very hard to get the inside story.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Europe seeks to support small launch companies. The European Space Agency and European Commission have selected five launch companies to participate in a new program to provide flight opportunities for new technologies, a sign of a greater role the European Union intends to play in launch, Space News reports. The effort seeks to stimulate demand for European launch services by allowing companies to compete for missions in the European Union’s In-Orbit Demonstration and Validation technology program. Proposals for the program’s first phase are due to ESA at the end of February.

Getting a golden ticket … The agency expects to select up to three companies for initial contracts with a combined value of 75 million euros ($82 million) to begin design work on those vehicles. Four of the companies selected for the “Flight Ticket Initiative” are startups working on small launch vehicles: Isar Aerospace, Orbex, PLD Space, and Rocket Factory Augsburg. None of them has yet conducted an orbital launch, but they expect to do so within the next two years. The fifth company was Arianespace, which will offer rideshare launches on its Vega C and Ariane 6 rockets. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)

Iran successfully launches Qaem 100 rocket. Iran said Saturday it had conducted a successful satellite launch into its highest orbit yet, the latest for a program the West fears improves Tehran’s ballistic missiles, the Associated Press reports. The Iranian Soraya satellite was placed in an orbit at some 750 kilometers (460 miles) above the Earth’s surface with its three-stage Qaem 100 rocket, the state-run IRNA news agency said. It did not immediately acknowledge what the satellite did, though telecommunications minister Isa Zarepour described the launch as having a 50-kilogram (110-pound) payload.

Qaem’s first orbital flight … The United States has previously said Iran’s satellite launches defy a UN Security Council resolution and called on Tehran to undertake no activity involving ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. UN sanctions related to Iran’s ballistic missile program expired last October. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes. This was the third launch of the Qaem rocket, which can loft up to 80 kg to low-Earth orbit. A suborbital test flight in 2022 was successful, but the first orbital attempt last March failed. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

The easiest way to keep up with Eric Berger’s space reporting is to sign up for his newsletter, we’ll collect his stories in your inbox.

Chinese firm tests vertical landing. Chinese launch startup Landspace executed a first vertical takeoff and vertical landing with a test article Friday at a launch and recovery site at Jiuquan spaceport, Space News reports. The methane-liquid oxygen test article reached an altitude of around 350 meters during its roughly 60-second flight before setting down in a designated landing area. The landing had an accuracy of about 2.4 meters and a landing speed of less than 1 meter per second, the company said.

Part Starship, part Falcon 9 … The test is part of the development of the stainless-steel Zhuque-3 rocket first announced in November 2023. The company is aiming for the first flight of Zhuque-3 next year. It is an ambitious project: The rocket is intended to have a payload capacity of 21 tons to low-Earth orbit in expendable mode, and 18.3 tons when the rocket is recovered downrange. If Zhuque-3 comes to pass—and these are promising early results—this would be the closest thing to a Falcon 9 rocket anyone has yet developed. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Rocket Report: Iran reaches orbit; Chinese firm achieves impressive landing test Read More »

measles-is-“growing-global-threat,”-cdc-tells-doctors-in-alert-message

Measles is “growing global threat,” CDC tells doctors in alert message

CDC, health, Infectious disease, measles, MMR vaccines, outbreak, pandemic, Science, vaccines, WHO / /

Alert —

Since December, there have been 23 measles cases in the US, including two outbreaks.

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A baby with measles.

Enlarge / A baby with measles.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is putting clinicians on alert about the growing risk of measles cases and outbreaks amid a global surge in transmission.

In an outreach message sent Thursday, the CDC told clinicians to look out for patients who have a rash accompanied by a fever and other symptoms of measles, as well as patients who have recently traveled to countries with ongoing measles outbreaks.

Between December 1, 2023, and January 23, 2024, there have been 23 confirmed measles cases in the US, including seven direct importations by international travelers and two outbreaks with more than five cases each, the CDC noted. Most of the cases were in unvaccinated children and teens.

Measles outbreaks in the US are typically sparked by unvaccinated or undervaccinated US residents who pick up the infection abroad and then, when they return, transmit the disease to pockets of their communities that are also unvaccinated or undervaccinated.

Globally and in the US, vaccination rates against measles—via the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR)—have fallen in recent years due to pandemic-related health care disruption and vaccine hesitancy fueled by misinformation.

“The increased number of measles importations seen in recent weeks is reflective of a rise in global measles cases and a growing global threat from the disease,” the CDC’s outreach message, titled “Stay Alert for Measles Cases,” read.

According to data from the World Health Organization, the European region saw an over 40-fold rise in measles cases in 2023 as compared with 2022. The region tallied over 42,200 measles cases last year, compared with just 941 in 2022.

This week, the WHO reported a rapid escalation of measles cases in Kazakhstan (which the WHO considers part of the European region). Kazakhstan has recorded the highest incidence of measles cases in the region, with 13,677 cases in 2023. That corresponds to over 639 cases per million in the population. In the news release Tuesday, Kazakhstan’s health minister reported that there are “currently 2,167 children in hospital with measles, 27 of them in a serious condition.”

The outbreak is largely spurred by unvaccinated children who missed their routine immunizations during the pandemic. Sixty-five percent of the reported measles cases are in children under age 5, the WHO noted. The country is now trying to catch children up on their vaccines to curb the outbreak.

“Measles is highly infectious, but fortunately, can be effectively prevented through vaccination,” WHO’s Regional Director for Europe, Hans Henri P. Kluge, said in the news release. “I commend Kazakhstan for the urgent measures being taken to stop the spread of this dangerous disease.”

Meanwhile, measles is flaring up in many other places. Last week, the UK Health Security Agency warned of the potential for an ongoing measles outbreak to spread. As of January 18, there were 216 confirmed cases and 103 probable cases in the West Midlands region since October 2023. Authorities warned that any areas with low MMR vaccination rates are at risk of an outbreak.

The vast majority of Americans have received their MMR vaccines on schedule. In this case, the two standard, recommended doses are considered 97 percent effective against measles, and the protection is considered for life. But anyone who is unvaccinated or undervaccinated is at high risk of infection in the event of an exposure. The virus can linger in air space for up to two hours after an infected person leaves the area, the CDC notes, and is highly infectious—up to 90 percent of unvaccinated people exposed will fall ill. Once infected, people are infectious from four days before the telltale measles rash develops to four days afterward.

Measles is “growing global threat,” CDC tells doctors in alert message Read More »

tens-of-thousands-of-pregnancies-from-rape-occurring-in-abortion-ban-states

Tens of thousands of pregnancies from rape occurring in abortion-ban states

Abortion, abortion ban, health, pregnancy, rape, reproductive health, Science, texas / /

Outraging —

States with bans logged 10 or fewer legal abortions per month, despite rape exceptions.

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Pro-choice protesters march in Texas, carrying signs that say

Enlarge / Pro-choice protesters march outside the Texas State Capitol on Sept. 1, 2021, in Austin, Texas.

Getty Images | The Washington Post

Fourteen states have banned abortions at any gestational age since the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade in 2022. Since the enactment of those abortion bans, an estimated 64,565 people became pregnant as a result of rape in those states. But, while five of the 14 states have exceptions for rape, all of the states logged only 10 or fewer legal abortions per month since their respective bans were enacted.

The finding, published this week in JAMA Internal Medicine, is a stark look at the effects of such bans on reproductive health care. The study did not assess how many of the estimated 64,565 pregnancies resulted in births, but it makes clear that tens of thousands of pregnant rape survivors, including children, were forced to turn to illegal procedures, self-managed abortions, or burdensome travel to states where abortion is legal—cost-prohibitive to many—as an alternative to carrying a rape-related pregnancy to term.

It also showed that legal exceptions for rape don’t work. The states with those exceptions apply stringent time limits on the pregnancy and require victims to report their rapes to law enforcement, which likely disqualifies most. The US Department of Justice estimates that only 21 percent of victims report their rape to police, for myriad reasons.

In an editor’s note accompanying the study, a trio of JAMA Internal Medicine editors—who are also medical researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, Harvard, and NYC Health and Hospitals—note the findings “demonstrate the scope of the problem,” as the number of rape-related pregnancies is “exponentially larger” than the number of legal abortions in those states.

“As physicians, we do not see abortion as a political, religious, or legal issue. Rather we see access to safe abortions as a necessary part of reproductive health services to protect the physical and mental well-being of patients. The best solution to this problem is a national law protecting the right of all people to choose to terminate pregnancy,” they write.

Study design

The study, led by a researcher at Planned Parenthood of Montana, is only an estimate because hard, state-level numbers are impossible to come by. The researchers pulled rape data from the DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, the FBI, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence survey, a specially designed survey to ascertain reported and unreported rapes.

With national data from various sources, the researchers estimated the proportion of rape survivors that are female individuals ages 15 to 45, and they further adjusted for the number of rapes that are vaginal. To estimate state-level rapes, they proportioned the rapes by states based on the FBI’s 2022 crime data, which includes rapes. They then multiplied each state’s rapes by the fraction of rapes likely to result in pregnancy. And finally, adjusted for the months between July 1, 2022 and January 1, 2024 that an abortion ban was in effect in each of the 14 states. Among the 14 states, the number of months in which a ban was in effect ranged from four to 18 months.

In all, the researchers estimated 519,981 completed vaginal rapes in the 14 abortion ban states which resulted in a collective total of 64,565 pregnancies during the four to 18 months that bans were in effect. Of the rape-related pregnancies, an estimated 5,586 (9 percent) were in states with rape exceptions, and 58,979 (91 percent) were in states with no exception.

Texas, the abortion-ban state with the largest population, had an estimated 26,313 (41 percent) of all rape-related pregnancies under its ban, which was enacted for 16 months during the study time frame. The state’s large number drew outrage from Democratic state lawmakers, particularly in light Gov. Greg Abbott’s vow to “eliminate rape” in Texas after a 2021 six-week abortion ban took effect (the state enacted a total ban in August 2022).

“Women and girls across our state are enduring unwanted pregnancies, suffering from life-endangering complications in desired pregnancies and fleeing the state for medical care,” the 13 Democratic state senators said in a Thursday news release, as reported by the Houston Chronicle. “We cannot allow this to be the new norm.”

Tens of thousands of pregnancies from rape occurring in abortion-ban states Read More »

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What would the late heavy bombardment have done to the Earth’s surface?

asteroids, craters, Earth science, geology, Impacts, planetary science, Science, tsunamis / /

Under fire —

Early in Earth’s history, bombardment by enormous asteroids was common.

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Image of a projection of the globe, with multi-colored splotches covering its surface.

Enlarge / Each panel shows the modeled effects of early Earth’s bombardment. Circles show the regions affected by each impact, with diameters corresponding to the final size of craters for impactors smaller than 100 kilometers in diameter. For larger impactors, the circle size corresponds to size of the region buried by impact-generated melt. Color coding indicates the timing of the impacts. The smallest impactors considered in this model have a diameter of 15 kilometers.

Simone Marchi, Southwest Research Institute

When it comes to space rocks slamming into Earth, two stand out. There’s the one that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago (goodbye T-rex, hello mammals!) and the one that formed Earth’s Moon. The asteroid that hurtled into the Yucatan peninsula and decimated the dinosaurs was a mere 10 kilometers in diameter. The impactor that formed the Moon, on the other hand, may have been about the size of Mars. But between the gigantic lunar-forming impact and the comparatively diminutive harbinger of dinosaurian death, Earth was certainly battered by other bodies.

At the 2023 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, scientists discussed what they’ve found when it comes to just how our planet has been shaped by asteroids that impacted the early Earth, causing everything from voluminous melts that covered swaths of the surface to ancient tsunamis that tore across the globe.

Modeling melt

When the Moon-forming impactor smashed into Earth, much of the world became a sea of melted rock called a magma ocean (if it wasn’t already melted). After this point, Earth had no more major additions of mass, said Simone Marchi, a planetary scientist at the Southwest Research Institute who creates computer models of the early Solar System and its planetary bodies, including Earth. “But you still have this debris flying about,” he said. This later phase of accretion may have lacked another lunar-scale impact, but likely featured large incoming asteroids. Predictions of the size and frequency distributions of this space flotsam indicate “that there has to be a substantial number of objects larger than, say, 1,000 kilometers in diameter,” Marchi said.

Unfortunately, there’s little obvious evidence in the rock record of these impacts before about 3.5 billion years ago. So scientists like Marchi can look to the Moon to estimate the number of objects that must have collided with Earth.

Armed with the size and number of impactors, Marchi and colleagues built a model that describes, as a function of time, the volume of melt this battering must have produced at the Earth’s surface. Magma oceans were in the past, but impactors greater than 100 kilometers in diameter still melted a lot of rock and must have drastically altered the early Earth.

Unlike smaller impacts, the volume of melt generated by objects of this size isn’t localized within a crater, according to models. Any crater exists only momentarily, as the rock is too fluid to maintain any sort of structure. Marchi compares this to tossing a stone into water. “There is a moment in time in which you have a cavity in the water, but then everything collapses and fills up because it’s a fluid.”

The melt volume is much larger than the amount of excavated rock, so Marchi can calculate just how much melt might have spilled out and coated parts of the Earth’s surface with each impact. The result is an astonishing map of melt volume. During the first billion years or so of Earth’s history, nearly the entire surface would have featured a veneer of impact melt at some point. Much of that history is gone because our active planet’s atmospheric, surface, and tectonic processes constantly modify much of the rock record.

Balls of glass

Even between 3.5 and 2.5 billion years ago, the rock record is sparse. But two places, Australia and South Africa, preserve evidence of impacts in the form of spherules. These tiny glass balls form immediately after an impact that sends vaporized rock skyward. As the plume returns to Earth, small droplets begin to condense and rain down.

Spherule bed from impact S3 in drill core. Here, S3’s spherule beds were deposited in deep enough water to not be diluted by other detritus.” data-height=”2560″ data-width=”1735″ href=”https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Image2-IMG_1552-scaled.jpg”><span class=Spherule bed from impact S3 in drill core. Here, S3’s spherule beds were deposited in deep enough water to not be diluted by other detritus.” height=”1446″ src=”https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Image2-IMG_1552-980×1446.jpg” width=”980″>

Enlarge / Spherule bed from impact S3 in drill core. Here, S3’s spherule beds were deposited in deep enough water to not be diluted by other detritus.

Nadja Drabon, Harvard

“It’s remarkable that we can find these impact-generated spherule layers all the way back to 3.5 billion years ago,” said Marchi.

What would the late heavy bombardment have done to the Earth’s surface? Read More »

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LIGO goes to space: ESA to proceed with LISA gravitational wave detector

astronomy, cosmology, ESA, gravitational waves, LIGO, Lisa, Science, Space / /

Let’s go LISA —

A gravitational wave detector in space will be sensitive to unexplored phenomena.

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Image of three spacecraft with red lines connecting them.

Enlarge / The LISA project will consist of three spacecraft in a triangular configuration, exchanging lasers.

On Thursday, the European Space Agency’s Science Programme Committee gave the go-ahead to the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, or LISA project. This would mean the construction of the mission’s three spacecraft could begin as early as a year from now. While the interferometer would follow the same basic principles as the ground-based LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory) experiment that first detected gravitational waves, the hardware would be placed 2.5 million kilometers apart, making it sensitive to an entirely new range of astronomical phenomena.

Proven tech

Existing gravitational wave detectors rely on bouncing lasers back and forth between distant mirrors before recombining them to produce an interference pattern. Anything that alters the position of the mirrors—from the rumble of a large truck to the passing of gravitational waves—will change the interference pattern. Having detectors at distant sites helps us eliminate cases of local noise, allowing us to detect astronomical events.

The detectors we’ve built on Earth have successfully picked up gravitational waves generated by the mergers of compact objects like neutron stars and black holes. But their relatively compact size means that they can only capture high-frequency gravitational waves, which are only produced in the last few seconds before a merger takes place.

To capture more of the process, we need to detect low-frequency gravitational waves. And that means a much larger distance between the interferometer’s mirrors and an escape from the seismic noise of Earth. It means going to space.

The LISA design consists of an outer shell of a spacecraft that absorbs the jostling of the dust and cosmic rays that tear through our Solar System and powers a laser strong enough to reach 2.5 million kilometers. It will also house a telescope to focus incoming laser light, which will spread from its normal tight beam over these distances. Floating freely within is a mass that, isolated from the rest of the Universe, should provide a stable platform to pick up any changes in the laser. Three spacecraft trail the Earth in its orbit around the Sun, each sending lasers to two others in a triangular configuration.

That may sound like science fiction, but ESA has already sent a pathfinder mission to space to test the technology. And it performed 20 times better than planned, providing three times the sensitivity needed for LISA to work. So there’s no obvious sticking point.

Going supermassive

Once it gets to space, it should immediately pick up the impending collisions that have resulted in LIGO detections. But it will spot them as much as a full year in advance and allow us to track where the event horizons touch. This would allow us to track the physics of their interactions over time and to potentially point optical telescopes in the right direction ahead of collisions so that we can determine whether any of these events produce radiation. (This may allow us to assign causes to some classes of events we’ve already detected via the photons.)

But that’s only part of the benefit. Due to their far larger size, supermassive black hole mergers are only detectable at lower frequencies. Since these are expected to happen following many galaxy mergers, it’s hoped we’ll be able to capture them.

Perhaps the most exciting prospect is that LISA could pick up the early gravitational fluctuations formed in the immediate aftermath of the Big Bang. That has the potential to provide a new view into the earliest history of the Universe, one that’s completely independent of the cosmic microwave background.

Now that I have you all as excited as I am, I regret to inform you that the launch date isn’t planned until 2034. So, hang in there for a decade—I promise it will be worth it.

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The amazing helicopter on Mars, Ingenuity, will fly no more

mars helicopter, Science, Space / /

The greatest —

Ingenuity has spent more than two hours flying above Mars since April 2021.

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A close-up view of <em>Ingenuity</em> on Mars, as seen by the <em>Perseverance</em> rover.” src=”https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/PIA24549-800×450.jpg”></img><figcaption> <p><a data-height=Enlarge / A close-up view of Ingenuity on Mars, as seen by the Perseverance rover.

NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU

Something has gone wrong with NASA’s Ingenuity helicopter on the surface of Mars. Although the US space agency has not made any public announcements yet, a source told Ars that the plucky flying vehicle had an accident on its last flight and broke one of its blades. It will not fly anymore. (Shortly after this article was published, NASA confirmed the end of Ingenuity‘s mission).

When it launched to Mars more than three years ago, the small Ingenuity helicopter was an experimental mission, a challenge to NASA engineers to see if they could devise and build a vehicle that could make a powered flight on another world.

This was especially difficulty on Mars, which has a very thin atmosphere, with a pressure of less than 1 percent that of Earth’s. The solution they landed on was a very light 4-lb helicopter with four blades. It was hoped that Ingenuity would make a handful of flights and provide NASA with some valuable testing data.

But it turns out that Ingenuity had other ideas. Since its deployment from the Perseverance rover in April 2021, the helicopter has flown a staggering 72 flights. It has spent more than two hours—128.3 minutes, to be precise—flying through the thin Martian air. Over that time, it flew 11 miles, or 17 km, performing invaluable scouting and scientific investigations. It has been a huge win for NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, one of the greatest spaceflight stories of this decade.

Getting on in Martian years

The vehicle has been showing signs of aging recently, however. And that’s not surprising. The fragile little flying machine has been exposed to the harsh Martian atmosphere for more than two and a half years, including bruising radiation, dust storms, and wide swings in temperature from very, very cold to sort of warm.

One week ago, during a simple hover test flight, NASA lost contact with Ingenuity for several hours. This is when it apparently broke one of its four blades. Later, mission operators restored communications by asking the Perseverance rover to perform long-duration listening sessions for Ingenuity’s signal.

Before that flight, on the helicopter’s 71st flight in early January, the helicopter was supposed to traverse a long distance of nearly 1,200 feet (358 meters), reaching an altitude of 40 feet (12 meters) and spending nearly 125 seconds airborne. NASA had sought to reposition the helicopter for future flights to survey new areas of the Martian surface. However, during that flight, Ingenuity made an unplanned early landing.

Now, the ingenious Ingenuity helicopter will fly no more. But just as the 1903 Wright Flyer is remembered for its first sustained, powered flight on Earth, Ingenuity will be long remembered for its contributions as humans sought to fly on worlds beyond our own.

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Aluminum mining waste could be a source of green steel

aluminum, chemistry, green chemistry, iron, ores, Science / /

Upcycling —

After the extraction, the remaining waste is less harmful to the environment.

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Image of a largely green landscape with a large, square area of red much in the center.

Enlarge / A red mud retaining pond in Germany.

The metals that form the foundation of modern society also cause a number of problems. Separating the metals we want from other minerals is often energy-intensive and can leave behind large volumes of toxic waste. Getting them in a pure form can often require a second and considerable energy input, boosting the associated carbon emissions.

A team of researchers from Germany has now figured out how to handle some of these problems for a specific class of mining waste created during aluminum production. Their method relies on hydrogen and electricity, which can both be sourced from renewable power and extracts iron and potentially other metals from the waste. What’s left behind may still be toxic but isn’t as environmentally damaging.

Out of the mud

The first step in aluminum production is the isolation of aluminum oxide from the other materials in the ore. This leaves behind a material known as red mud; it’s estimated that nearly 200 million tonnes are produced annually. While the red color comes from the iron oxides present, there are a lot of other materials in it, some of which can be toxic. And the process of isolating the aluminum oxide leaves the material with a very basic pH.

All of these features mean that the red mud generally can’t (or at least shouldn’t) be returned to the environment. It’s generally kept in containment ponds—globally, these are estimated to house 4 billion tonnes of red mud, and many containment pods have burst over the years.

The iron oxides can account for over half the weight of red mud in some locations, potentially making it a good source of iron. Traditional methods have processed iron ores by reacting them with carbon, leading to the release of carbon dioxide. But there have been efforts made to develop “green steel” production in which this step is replaced by a reaction with hydrogen, leaving water as the primary byproduct. Since hydrogen can be made from water using renewable electricity, this has the potential to eliminate a lot of the carbon emissions associated with iron production.

The team from Germany decided to test a method of green steel production on red mud. They heated some of the material in an electric arc furnace under an atmosphere that was mostly argon (which wouldn’t react with anything) and hydrogen (at 10 percent of the mix).

Pumping (out) iron

The reaction was remarkably quick. Within a few minutes, metallic iron nodules started appearing in the mixture. The iron production was largely complete by about 10 minutes. The iron was remarkably pure, at about 98 percent of the material by weight in the nodules being iron.

Starting with a 15-gram sample of red mud, the process reduced this to 8.8 grams, as lots of the oxygen in the material was liberated in the form of water. (It’s worth noting that this water could be cycled back to hydrogen production, closing the loop on this aspect of the process.) Of that 8.8 grams, about 2.6 (30 percent) was in the form of iron.

The research found that there are also some small bits of relatively pure titanium formed in the mix. So, there’s a chance that this can be used in the production of additional metals, although the process would probably need to be optimized to boost the yield of anything other than iron.

The good news is that there’s much less red mud left to worry about after this. Depending on the source of the original aluminum-containing ore, some of this may include relatively high concentrations of valuable materials, such as rare earth minerals. The downside is that any toxic materials in the original ore are going to be significantly more concentrated.

As a small plus, the process also neutralizes the pH of the remaining residue. So, that’s at least one less thing to worry about.

The downside is that the process is incredibly energy-intensive, both in producing the hydrogen required and running the arc furnace. The cost of that energy makes things economically challenging. That’s partly offset by the lower processing costs—the ore has already been obtained and has a relatively high purity.

But the key feature of this is the extremely low carbon emissions. Right now, there’s no price on those in most countries, which makes the economics of this process far more difficult.

Nature, 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06901-z  (About DOIs).

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