semiconductors

tsmc’s-$65-billion-bet-still-leaves-us-missing-piece-of-chip-puzzle

TSMC’s $65 billion bet still leaves US missing piece of chip puzzle

President Biden speaking at the official opening of TSMC’s first Arizona fabrication plant in December 2022. The Taiwanese chipmaker plans to start manufacturing 2-nanometer chips in the US in 2028.

Enlarge / President Biden speaking at the official opening of TSMC’s first Arizona fabrication plant in December 2022. The Taiwanese chipmaker plans to start manufacturing 2-nanometer chips in the US in 2028.

Caitlin O’Hara/Bloomberg via Getty

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s decision to bring its latest technology to America is a big step forward for US President Joe Biden’s quest for security in the vital tech supply chain—but still leaves Washington short of being able to completely produce the most complex chips in the US.

The world’s biggest chipmaker by sales must also pull off an intricate balancing act as it steps up its US presence, satisfying customers such as Nvidia without damaging its highly profitable business model, which has underpinned the development of the global semiconductor industry for more than 30 years.

TSMC’s planned $65 billion of investments in Arizona are part of a construction race in the US that involves other global chipmakers such as Samsung and Intel, which are also taking big subsidies from Washington.

But producing chips for purposes such as AI is still likely to involve plants in Asia, a reflection of the complexity involved in packaging various types of chip together to boost their performance and efficiency.

“It’s really not that simple to onshore everything. Having the logic [chip] foundry in the US and then a bit of the packaging there is not enough,” said Myron Xie, an analyst at boutique consultancy SemiAnalysis.

TSMC—which makes chips under contract at hugely complex and expensive fabrication plants, or fabs—plans to start manufacturing 2-nanometer chips in the US in 2028. This is an upgrade from the company’s previous plans. At that time 2 nm technology is expected to be the latest in mass production worldwide, whereas previously the company had intended each new US fab to start operating with process technology one generation behind Taiwan.

TSMC has also committed to offer a third plant using 2 nm or even newer technology by 2030.

Washington is paying a hefty price for the upgrade, with US$6.6 billion in grants and up to $5 billion in loans for TSMC. The money comes from the 2022 Chips and Science Act, which aims to onshore advanced chipmaking for the US. Commerce secretary Gina Raimondo has said the US will be on track to make about 20 percent of the world’s most advanced chips by the end of the decade.

But while Washington’s money offers some incentive, TSMC’s most important motive for stepping up its commitment to the US was to bring its own US strategy in line with the needs of Nvidia and other vendors of the AI chips that have become the most potent driver of global semiconductor demand.

FT

While TSMC will kick off 2 nm volume production in Taiwan next year, its original plans would have offered less powerful 3 nm chips only from 2028 in the US, putting it years behind the AI chip cycle, analysts said.

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India’s plan to let 1998 digital trade deal expire may worsen chip shortage

India’s plan to let 1998 digital trade deal expire may worsen chip shortage

India’s plan to let a moratorium on imposing customs duties on cross-border digital e-commerce transactions expire may end up hurting India’s more ambitious plans to become a global chip leader in the next five years, Reuters reported.

It could also worsen the global chip shortage by spiking semiconductor industry costs at a time when many governments worldwide are investing heavily in expanding domestic chip supplies in efforts to keep up with rapidly advancing technologies.

Early next week, world leaders will convene at a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting, just before the deadline to extend the moratorium hits in March. In place since 1998, the moratorium has been renewed every two years since—but India has grown concerned that it’s losing significant revenues from not imposing taxes as demand rises for its digital goods, like movies, e-books, or games.

Hoping to change India’s mind, a global consortium of semiconductor industry associations known as the World Semiconductor Council (WSC) sent a letter to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday.

Reuters reviewed the letter, reporting that the WSC warned Modi that ending the moratorium “would mean tariffs on digital e-commerce and an innumerable number of transfers of chip design data across countries, raising costs and worsening chip shortages.”

Pointing to Modi’s $10 billion semiconductor incentive package—which Modi has said is designed to advance India’s industry through “giant leaps” in its mission to become a technology superpower—the WSC cautioned Modi that pushing for customs duties may dash those global chip leader dreams.

Studies suggest that India should be offering tax incentives, not potentially threatening to impose duties on chip design data. That includes a study from earlier this year, released after the Semiconductor Industry Association and the India Electronics and Semiconductor Association commissioned a report from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF).

ITIF’s goal was to evaluate “India’s existing semiconductor ecosystem and policy frameworks” and offer “recommendations to facilitate longer-term strategic development of complementary semiconductor ecosystems in the US and India,” a press release said, partly in order to “deepen commercial ties” between the countries. The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) has also reported a similar goal to deepen commercial ties with the European Union.

Among recommendations to “strengthen India’s semiconductor competitiveness,” ITIF’s report encouraged India to advance cooperation with the US and introduce policy reforms that “lower the cost of doing business for semiconductor companies in India”—by “offering tax breaks to chip companies” and “expediting clearance times for goods entering the country.”

Because the duties could spike chip industry costs at a time when global cross-border data transmissions are expected to reach $11 trillion by 2025, WSC wrote, the duties may “impede India’s efforts to advance its semiconductor industry and attract semiconductor investment,” which could negatively impact “more than 20 percent of the world’s semiconductor design workforce,” which is based in India.

The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to Ars’ request to comment.

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TSMC predicts delays, less advanced chips at second Arizona fab

US President Joe Biden speaks during a

Enlarge / US President Joe Biden speaks during a “First Tool-In” ceremony at the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. facility under construction in Phoenix, Arizona, US, on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022. TSMC today announced plans to boost its investment in the state to $40 billion and construct a second production facility, following major customers urging the Taiwanese chipmaker to build more advanced semiconductors in the US.

President Joe Biden’s plan to expand America’s command of the global chips market hit another setback Thursday when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) Chairman Mark Liu announced that he anticipates significant delays at the company’s second chips plant in Arizona.

This news follows previous delays announced last year at TSMC’s first chips plant, which Liu partly blamed on US workers lacking specialized skills. At Thursday’s news conference, Liu “reiterated” those complaints, Bloomberg reported, claiming that TSMC is still struggling to hire skilled workers in Arizona.

According to Liu, TSMC’s second Arizona plant—which is supposed to become the most advanced facility in the US—likely won’t start volume production of advanced chips until 2027 or 2028. That’s potentially two years longer than initial projections suggesting that production would start in 2026.

Such lengthy delays, Bloomberg noted, might be “time enough for semiconductor tech to advance by one generation.” If that’s the case, one of the country’s biggest foreign investments ever might result in the US still lagging behind foreign chips competitors.

Liu also suggested that the second plant, even with delays, might not start producing the 3-nanometer chip that TSMC had earlier stated would be possible in 2026. This 3-nm chip is “among the most advanced” chips manufactured today, The Wall Street Journal noted, but Liu said that until TSMC could calculate “customer demand and government incentives,” the chipmaker wouldn’t be able to determine “the specific chip type” that the second plant would begin producing as late as 2028.

TSMC’s delays could be due to a lack of Chips Act funding, Bloomberg suggested, pointing out that none of the leading chip manufacturers ramping up efforts in the US today have been approved for funding yet by the Department of Commerce.

Last month, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo confirmed that the US had not yet awarded grants to commercial semiconductor facilities like TSMC because selecting a defense contractor first “was meant to emphasize the administration’s focus on national security,” The New York Times reported. By funding BAE Systems, the Biden administration was likely moving quickly to decrease reliance on China-based chip supply chains for military purposes amid growing tensions between the two countries.

“When we talk about supply chain resilience, this investment is about shoring up that resilience and ensuring that the chips are delivered when our military needs them,” Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, said last month.

If the US announced funding for TSMC, that could ensure that the second Arizona chips plant would be operational by 2027 rather than 2028. According to Bloomberg, TSMC announced it was building a “more modest plant” in Japan that’s on track to launch operations this year after the Japanese government promptly provided funding.

In December, Raimondo promised that “much larger grants for major semiconductor manufacturing facilities run by companies like Intel, Samsung,” or TSMC would be announced “in the coming months.” She also confirmed that the “pace” of announcing awards would speed up in the first half of 2024.

Liu said that TSMC is in “consistent communication with the US government on incentive and tax credit support” in Arizona, the Journal reported.

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Report: Black market keeps Nvidia chips flowing to China military, government

Out of control —

Unknown suppliers keep Nvidia’s most advanced chips within China’s reach.

An Nvidia H100 graphics processor chip.

Enlarge / An Nvidia H100 graphics processor chip.

China is still finding ways to skirt US export controls on Nvidia chips, Reuters reported.

A Reuters review of publicly available tender documents showed that last year dozens of entities—including “Chinese military bodies, state-run artificial intelligence research institutes, and universities”—managed to buy “small batches” of restricted Nvidia chips.

The US has been attempting to block China from accessing advanced chips needed to achieve AI breakthroughs and advance modern military technologies since September 2022, citing national security risks.

Reuters’ report shows just how unsuccessful the US effort has been to completely cut off China, despite repeated US attempts to expand export controls and close any loopholes discovered over the past year.

China’s current suppliers remain “largely unknown,” but Reuters confirmed that “neither Nvidia” nor its approved retailers counted “among the suppliers identified.”

An Nvidia spokesperson told Reuters that the company “complies with all applicable export control laws and requires its customers to do the same.”

“If we learn that a customer has made an unlawful resale to third parties, we’ll take immediate and appropriate action,” Nvidia’s spokesperson said.

It’s also still unclear how suppliers are procuring the chips, which include Nvidia’s most powerful chips, the A100 and H100, in addition to slower modified chips developed just for the Chinese market, the A800 and H800. The former chips were among the first banned, while the US only began restricting the latter chips last October.

Among military and government groups purchasing chips were two top universities that the US Department of Commerce has linked to China’s principal military force, the People’s Liberation Army, and labeled as a threat to national security. Last May, the Harbin Institute of Technology purchased six Nvidia A100 chips to “train a deep-learning model,” and in December 2022, the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China purchased one A100 for purposes so far unknown, Reuters reported.

Other entities purchasing chips include Tsinghua University—which is seemingly gaining the most access, purchasing “some 80 A100 chips since the 2022 ban”—as well as Chongqing University, Shandong Chengxiang Electronic Technology, and “one unnamed People’s Liberation Army entity based in the city of Wuxi, Jiangsu province.”

In total, Reuters reviewed more than 100 tenders showing state entities purchasing A100 chips and dozens of tenders documenting A800 purchases. Purchases include “brand new” chips and have been made as recently as this month.

Most of the chips purchased by Chinese entities are being used for AI, Reuters reported. None of the purchasers or suppliers provided comments in Reuters’ report.

Nvidia’s highly sought-after chips are graphic processing units capable of crunching large amounts of data at the high speeds needed to fuel AI systems. For now, these chips remain irreplaceable to Chinese firms hoping to compete globally, as well as nationally, with China’s dominant technology players, such as Huawei, Reuters suggested.

While the “small batches” of chips found indicate that China could still be accessing enough Nvidia chips to enhance “existing AI models,” Reuters pointed out that US curbs are effectively stopping China from bulk-ordering chips at quantities needed to develop new AI systems. Running a “model similar to OpenAI’s GPT would require more than 30,000 Nvidia A100 cards,” research firm TrendForce reported last March.

For China, which has firmly opposed the US export controls every step of the way, these curbs remain a persistent problem despite maintaining access through the burgeoning black market. On Monday, a Bloomberg report flagged the “steepest drop” in the value of China chip imports ever recorded, falling by more than 15 percent.

China’s black market for AI chips

The US still must confront whether it’s possible to block China from accessing advanced chips without other allied nations joining the effort by lobbying their own export controls.

In October 2022, a senior US official warned that without more cooperation, US curbs will “lose effectiveness over time.” A former top Commerce Department official, Kevin Wolf, told The Wall Street Journal last year that it’s “insanely difficult to enforce” US export controls on transactions overseas.

Part of the problem, sources told Reuters in October 2023, is that overseas subsidiaries were “easily” smuggling restricted chips into China or else providing remote access to chips to China-based employees.

On top of that activity, a black market for chips developed quickly, selling “excess stock that finds its way to the market after Nvidia ships large quantities to big US firms” or else chips imported “through companies locally incorporated in places such as India, Taiwan, and Singapore,” Reuters reported.

The US has maintained that its plan is not to ensure that China has absolutely no access but to limit access enough to keep China from getting ahead. But Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has warned that curbs could have the opposite effect. While China finds ways to skirt the bans and acquire chips to “inspire” advancements, US companies that have been impacted by export controls restricting sales in China could lose so much revenue that they fall behind competitively, Huang predicted.

One example likely worrying to Huang and other tech firms came last November, when Huawei shocked the US government by unveiling a cutting-edge chip that seemed to prove US sanctions weren’t doing much to limit China’s ability to compete.

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