hdd

12-years-of-hdd-analysis-brings-insight-to-the-bathtub-curve’s-reliability

12 years of HDD analysis brings insight to the bathtub curve’s reliability

But as seen in Backblaze’s graph above, the company’s HDDs aren’t adhering to that principle. The blog’s authors noted that in 2021 and 2025, Backblaze’s drives had a “pretty even failure rate through the significant majority of the drives’ lives, then a fairly steep spike once we get into drive failure territory.”

The blog continues:

What does that mean? Well, drives are getting better, and lasting longer. And, given that our trendlines are about the same shape from 2021 to 2025, we should likely check back in when 2029 rolls around to see if our failure peak has pushed out even further.

Speaking with Ars Technica, Doyle said that Backblaze’s analysis is good news for individuals shopping for larger hard drives because the devices are “going to last longer.”

She added:

In many ways, you can think of a datacenter’s use of hard drives as the ultimate test for a hard drive—you’re keeping a hard drive on and spinning for the max amount of hours, and often the amount of times you read/write files is well over what you’d ever see as a consumer. Industry trend-wise, drives are getting bigger, which means that oftentimes, folks are buying fewer of them. Reporting on how these drives perform in a data center environment, then, can give you more confidence that whatever drive you’re buying is a good investment.

The longevity of HDDs is also another reason for shoppers to still consider HDDs over faster, more expensive SSDs.

“It’s a good idea to decide how justified the improvement in latency is,” Doyle said.

Questioning the bathtub curve

Doyle and Paterson aren’t looking to toss the bathtub curve out with the bathwater. They’re not suggesting that the bathtub curve doesn’t apply to HDDs, but rather that it overlooks additional factors affecting HDD failure rates, including “workload, manufacturing variation, firmware updates, and operational churn.” The principle also makes the assumptions that, per the authors:

  • Devices are identical and operate under the same conditions
  • Failures happen independently, driven mostly by time
  • The environment stays constant across a product’s life

While these conditions can largely be met in datacenter environments, “conditions can’t ever be perfect,” Doyle and Patterson noted. When considering an HDD’s failure rates over time, it’s wise to consider both the bathtub curve and how you use the component.

12 years of HDD analysis brings insight to the bathtub curve’s reliability Read More »

synology-caves,-walks-back-some-drive-restrictions-on-upcoming-nas-models

Synology caves, walks back some drive restrictions on upcoming NAS models

If you were considering the purchase of a Synology NAS but were leery of the unreasonably high cost of populating it with special Synology-branded hard disk drives, you can breathe a little easier today. In a press release dated October 8, Synology noted that with the release of its latest Disk Station Manager (DSM) update, some of its 2025 model-year products—specifically, the Plus, Value, and J-series DiskStation NAS devices—would “support the installation and storage pool creation of non-validated third-party drives.”

This unexpected move comes just a few months after Synology aggressively expanded its “verified drive” policy down-market to the entire Plus line of DiskStations. Prior to today, the network-attached storage vendor had shown no signs of swerving from the decision, painting it as a pro-consumer move intended to enhance reliability. “Extensive internal testing has shown that drives that follow a rigorous validation process when paired with Synology systems are at less risk of drive failure and ongoing compatibility issues,” Synology previously claimed in an email to Ars.

What is a “verified” or “validated” drive?

Synology first released its own brand of hard disk drives back in 2021 and began requiring their use in a small but soon-to-increase number of its higher-end NAS products. Although the drives were rebadged offerings from other manufacturers—there are very few hard disk drive OEMs, and Synology isn’t one of them—the company claimed that its branded disks underwent significant additional validation and testing that, when coupled with customized firmware, yielded reliability and performance improvements over off-the-shelf components.

However, those drives came with what was in some cases a substantial price increase over commodity hardware. Although I couldn’t find an actual published MSRP list, some spot checking on several web stores shows that the Synology HAT5310 enterprise SATA drive (a drive with the same warranty and expected service life as a Seagate Exos or Western Digital Gold) is available in 8TB at $299, 12TB at $493, and 20TB at an eye-watering $605. (For comparison, identically sized Seagate Exos disks are $220 at 8TB, $345 at 12TB, and $399 at 20TB.) Other Synology drive models tell similar pricing stories.

Synology caves, walks back some drive restrictions on upcoming NAS models Read More »

data-recovery-firm-tests-$28,-500gb-hdd-from-amazon-and-gets-surprising-results

Data-recovery firm tests $28, 500GB HDD from Amazon and gets surprising results

Ars was unable to confirm if UnionSine and Toshiba have any formal business relationship. UnionSine’s website says that its full company name is Shenzhen Union Integrity Technology Co., Ltd., a Shenzhen-based company launched in 2014 with “more than 50 employees.” It doesn’t list Toshiba as a partner. Toshiba also doesn’t mention any collaboration with UnionSine on its website. Neither company responded to requests for comment ahead of publication. Interestingly, there’s at least one account of someone finding a Western Digital drive inside their UnionSine HDD’s enclosure.

Rymko said that Secure Data Recovery couldn’t confirm if the Toshiba drive was refurbished but also emphasized the drive’s nearly 10 years of age:

Our internal data indicates that the average lifespan of a drive is approximately three-to-five years, depending on the brand, capacity, and other factors. Our data found that the average ‘power-on’ hours of failed drives was about two years and 10 months. With the right tools, the ‘power-on hours’ data can be reset. This could mean the drive may last a few years; I can’t say for sure.

There are better storage options

Rymko told me that UnionSine “seem[s] like a legitimate company” and noted that Secure Data Recovery has recovered data from UnionSine drives before. He also said that for $28, “the drive performs well and provides good value;” it also “meets expectations for speed and reliability.” Still, he has some concerns about long-term use:

We haven’t identified any major issues with this device, but as with any budget drive, long-term durability and sustained performance under heavy use are potential concerns to watch for. It’s always a good idea to back up important data regularly.

But there are still reasons to look elsewhere for storage.

For one, UnionSine doesn’t have a clearly posted warranty policy for its HDDs. As Rymko mentioned, the long-term durability of its drive is dubious, making the lack of a clear warranty concerning.

Further, there are bigger and roomier storage options than a 500GB HDD. If you’re opting for an HDD over an SSD to save money, it can be prudent to put at least some of those savings toward more storage space. A roomier HDD will cost more, but the price-per-GB may not differ much, depending on the drive.

When storing valued files, you can rest easier by following the 3-2-1 backup rule and by buying from a reputable brand with a solid warranty. Losing important data is frustrating enough, and that frustration is exacerbated when a company doesn’t take accountability for a potentially faulty device.

Data-recovery firm tests $28, 500GB HDD from Amazon and gets surprising results Read More »

shopper-denied-$51-refund-for-20tb-hdd-that’s-mostly-a-weighted-plastic-box

Shopper denied $51 refund for 20TB HDD that’s mostly a weighted plastic box

Many Arsians are the go-to IT support representative for family and friends. If you’re lucky, your loved ones’ problems are easily resolved with a reset, update, or new cable. That wasn’t the case for a son who recently had to break the news to his father that the 20TB portable hard drive he purchased for about $50 was mostly just a plastic box with weights and a PCB.

Ars Technica spoke with the Reddit user who posted about his father bringing him a “new 20T[B] HDD to see if I could figure out what was wrong with it.” The Redditor, who asked that we refer to him by his first name, Martin, revealed that his dad paid £38 (about $51.33) for what he thought was a portable HDD. That’s a red flag. HDDs have gotten cheaper over the years, but not that cheap. A 20TB external HDD typically costs over $200, and they’re usually much larger than the portable-SSD-sized device that Martin’s father received. A 20TB HDD in a portable form factor is rarer and can cost well over $300.

Taking a hammer to the device revealed that the chassis was nearly empty, save for some iron wheel weights sloppily attached to the black plastic with hefty globs of glue and a small PCB with some form of flash storage that could connect to a system via USB-A.

Fake HDD opened up.

The “HDD” opened up.

The “HDD” opened up. Credit: The__Unflushable/Reddit

As with other PC storage scams we’ve seen online, Windows read the so-called HDD as a “19TB drive, but would then just hang if you try to do anything with it,” Martin said on Reddit.

Programming the board’s firmware so that the drive appears as a high-capacity storage device on Windows is a clever trick that could convince users they’re to blame. But as Windows-savvy users would point out, Windows reports drive capacities in gibibytes or tebibytes, so a real 20TB HDD would appear as approximately 18.2TB in Windows.

Martin told Ars:

The device appeared to mount on the desktop with the device name in Mandarin (turned out this simply said “Hard Disc”). I tried copying a file, and the name did appear on the “hard disc.” It was only when I tried to open this file from the hard disc that the problems began to emerge. The file could not be opened, no matter how hard I tried, including reformatting the hard disc. At that point nothing was “working” at all.

Sketchy online listing

Martin told Ars that his father purchased the fake HDD from a website called UK.Chicntech, which appears to primarily sell car supplies, kitchen supplies, and home textiles. Currently, the website does not list any PC components or peripherals, but overall, its stock is pretty limited. Chicntech currently lists some other electronics, like a “[With Starry Sky Lid]AI Nano Mist Intelligent Car Aromatherapy Device” (linking for explanatory purposes only; we don’t recommend shopping on this website) for $56.

Shopper denied $51 refund for 20TB HDD that’s mostly a weighted plastic box Read More »

after-decades-of-talk,-seagate-seems-ready-to-actually-drop-the-hamr-hard-drives

After decades of talk, Seagate seems ready to actually drop the HAMR hard drives

How do you fit 32 terabytes of storage into a hard drive? With a HAMR.

Seagate has been experimenting with heat-assisted magnetic recording, or HAMR, since at least 2002. The firm has occasionally popped up to offer a demonstration or make yet another “around the corner” pronouncement. The press has enjoyed myriad chances to celebrate the wordplay of Stanley Kirk Burrell, but new qualification from large-scale customers might mean HAMR drives will be actually available, to buy, as physical objects, for anyone who can afford the most magnetic space possible. Third decade’s the charm, perhaps.

HAMR works on the principle that, when heated, a disk’s magnetic materials can hold more data in smaller spaces, such that you can fit more overall data on the drive. It’s not just putting a tiny hot plate inside an HDD chassis; as Seagate explains in its technical paper, “the entire process—heating, writing, and cooling—takes less than 1 nanosecond.” Getting from a physics concept to an actual drive involved adding a laser diode to the drive head, optical steering, firmware alterations, and “a million other little things that engineers spent countless hours developing.” Seagate has a lot more about Mozaic 3+ on its site.

Seagate’s rendering of how its unique heating laser head allows for 3TB per magnetic platter in Mozaic drives.

Seagate’s rendering of how its unique heating laser head allows for 3TB per magnetic platter in Mozaic drives. Credit: Seagate

Drives based on Seagate’s Mozaic 3+ platform, in standard drive sizes, will soon arrive with wider availability than its initial test batches. The driver maker put in a financial filing earlier this month (PDF) that it had completed qualification testing with several large-volume customers, including “a leading cloud service provider,” akin to Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, or the like. Volume shipments are likely soon to follow.

After decades of talk, Seagate seems ready to actually drop the HAMR hard drives Read More »

music-industry’s-1990s-hard-drives,-like-all-hdds,-are-dying

Music industry’s 1990s hard drives, like all HDDs, are dying

The spinning song —

The music industry traded tape for hard drives and got a hard-earned lesson.

Hard drive seemingly exploding in flames and particles

Enlarge / Hard drives, unfortunately, tend to die not with a spectacular and sparkly bang, but with a head-is-stuck whimper.

Getty Images

One of the things enterprise storage and destruction company Iron Mountain does is handle the archiving of the media industry’s vaults. What it has been seeing lately should be a wake-up call: roughly one-fifth of the hard disk drives dating to the 1990s it was sent are entirely unreadable.

Music industry publication Mix spoke with the people in charge of backing up the entertainment industry. The resulting tale is part explainer on how music is so complicated to archive now, part warning about everyone’s data stored on spinning disks.

“In our line of work, if we discover an inherent problem with a format, it makes sense to let everybody know,” Robert Koszela, global director for studio growth and strategic initiatives at Iron Mountain, told Mix. “It may sound like a sales pitch, but it’s not; it’s a call for action.”

Hard drives gained popularity over spooled magnetic tape as digital audio workstations, mixing and editing software, and the perceived downsides of tape, including deterioration from substrate separation and fire. But hard drives present their own archival problems. Standard hard drives were also not designed for long-term archival use. You can almost never decouple the magnetic disks from the reading hardware inside, so that if either fails, the whole drive dies.

There are also general computer storage issues, including the separation of samples and finished tracks, or proprietary file formats requiring archival versions of software. Still, Iron Mountain tells Mix that “If the disk platters spin and aren’t damaged,” it can access the content.

But “if it spins” is becoming a big question mark. Musicians and studios now digging into their archives to remaster tracks often find that drives, even when stored at industry-standard temperature and humidity, have failed in some way, with no partial recovery option available.

“It’s so sad to see a project come into the studio, a hard drive in a brand-new case with the wrapper and the tags from wherever they bought it still in there,” Koszela says. “Next to it is a case with the safety drive in it. Everything’s in order. And both of them are bricks.”

Entropy wins

Mix’s passing along of Iron Mountain’s warning hit Hacker News earlier this week, which spurred other tales of faith in the wrong formats. The gist of it: You cannot trust any medium, so you copy important things over and over, into fresh storage. “Optical media rots, magnetic media rots and loses magnetic charge, bearings seize, flash storage loses charge, etc.,” writes user abracadaniel. “Entropy wins, sometimes much faster than you’d expect.”

There is discussion of how SSDs are not archival at all; how floppy disk quality varied greatly between the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s; how Linear Tape-Open, a format specifically designed for long-term tape storage, loses compatibility over successive generations; how the binder sleeves we put our CD-Rs and DVD-Rs in have allowed them to bend too much and stop being readable.

Knowing that hard drives will eventually fail is nothing new. Ars wrote about the five stages of hard drive death, including denial, back in 2005. Last year, backup company Backblaze shared failure data on specific drives, showing that drives that fail tend to fail within three years, that no drive was totally exempt, and that time does, generally, wear down all drives. Google’s server drive data showed in 2007 that HDD failure was mostly unpredictable, and that temperatures were not really the deciding factor.

So Iron Mountain’s admonition to music companies is yet another warning about something we’ve already heard. But it’s always good to get some new data about just how fragile a good archive really is.

Music industry’s 1990s hard drives, like all HDDs, are dying Read More »

the-diskmantler-violently-shakes-hard-drives-for-better-rare-earth-recovery

The DiskMantler violently shakes hard drives for better rare-earth recovery

Rare-earth magnet recycling —

A nifty HDD disassembly tool, sure, but we also have a larger global need for magnets.

From magnets we came, to magnets we return.

Enlarge / From magnets we came, to magnets we return.

Garner Products

There is the mental image that most people have of electronics recycling, and then there is the reality, which is shredding.

Less than 20 percent of e-waste even makes it to recycling. That which does is, if not acquired through IT asset disposition (ITAD) or spotted by a worker who sees some value, heads into the shredder for raw metals extraction. If you’ve ever toured an electronics recycling facility, you can see for yourself how much of your stuff eventually gets chewed into little bits, whether due to design, to unprofitable reuse markets, or sheer volume concerns.

Traditional hard drives have some valuable things inside them—case, cover, circuit boards, drive assemblies, actuators, and rare-earth magnets—but only if they avoid the gnashing teeth. That’s where the DiskMantler comes in. Garner Products, a data elimination firm, has a machine that it claims can process 500 hard drives (the HDD kind) per day in a way that leaves a drive separated into those useful components. And the DiskMantler does this by shaking the thing to death (video).

  • Insert the drive into the DiskMantler like you’re nostalgic for the VCR days.

    Garner Products

  • The DiskMantler shakes the drive until the screws fly out of the thing.

    Garner Products

  • The disassembled drive pops out or lands on a conveyor belt.

    Garner Products

  • The component parts that the DiskMantler breaks down to.

    Garner Products

  • The DiskMantler itself, which needs an air supply and power.

    Garner Products

The DiskMantler, using “shock, harmonics, and vibration,” vibrates most drives into pieces in between 8–90 seconds, depending on how much separation you want. Welded helium drives take about two minutes. The basic science for how this works came from Gerhard Junker, the perfectly named German scientist who fully explored the power of vibrations, or “shear loading perpendicular to the fastener axis,” to loosen screws and other fasteners.

As Garner’s chief global development officer, Michael Harstrick, told E-Scrap News, the device came about when a client needed a way to extract circuit boards from drives fastened with proprietary screw heads. Prying or other destruction would have been too disruptive and potentially damaging. After testing different power levels and durations, Garner arrived at a harmonic vibration device that can take apart pretty much any drive, even those with more welding than screws. “They still come apart,” Harstrick told E-Scrap News. “It just takes a little bit.”

Improving the recovery and sorting ease of hard drives is itself a useful thing, but the potential for rare-earth magnet recycling is particularly attractive. Most rare-earth magnet recycling involves “long-loop” recycling, or breaking them down into rare earth elements and then putting those back into the magnet production stream, which is energy-intensive and not very cost-effective. Electric vehicles and wind turbines have huge amounts of rare-earth magnets in them but rarely see recycling. Hard drives, while individually small, are massive in scale, with roughly 259 million shipped in 2021.

One Canadian firm, based on a University of Birmingham-patented process, wants to reuse drive magnets more directly, creating new sources that don’t require extraction and aren’t quite so globally concentrated. That Canadian firm, HyProMag, uses robotics to find and extract drives’ permanent magnets, then sends the rest of the disk off for recycling.

The technology is not all there yet, but soon enough, it looks like something interesting will shake out.

The DiskMantler violently shakes hard drives for better rare-earth recovery Read More »