Science – Page 4

ESA finally has a commercial launch strategy, but will member states pay?

Commercial space, Europe, european space agency, launch, Science, Space / Beth Washington / March 26, 2025

Late this year, European governments will have the opportunity to pay up or shut up.

The European Space Agency is inviting proposals to inject competition into the European launch market, an important step toward fostering a dynamic multiplayer industry officials hope, one day, will mimic that of the United States.

The near-term plan for the European Launcher Challenge is for ESA to select companies for service contracts to transport ESA and other European government payloads to orbit from 2026 through 2030. A second component of the challenge is for companies to perform at least one demonstration of an upgraded launch vehicle by 2028. The competition is open to any European company working in the launch business.

“What we expect is that these companies will make a step in improving and upgrading their capacity with respect to what they’re presently working on,” said Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA’s acting director of space transportation. “In terms of economics and physics, it’s better to have a bigger launcher than a smaller launcher in terms of price per kilogram to orbit.”

“The ultimate goal is, we should be establishing privately developed competitive launch services in Europe, which will allow us to procure launch services in open competition,” Tolker-Nielsen said in an interview with Ars.

From one to many?

ESA and other European institutions currently have just one European provider, Arianespace, to award launch contracts for the continent’s scientific, Earth observation, navigation, and military satellites. Arianespace operates the Ariane 6 and Vega C rockets. Vega C operations will soon be taken over by Italian aerospace company Avio. Both rockets were developed with ESA funding.

The launcher challenge is modeled on NASA’s use of commercial contracting methods beginning nearly 20 years ago with the agency’s commercial cargo program, which kickstarted the development of SpaceX’s Dragon and Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus resupply freighters for the International Space Station. NASA later applied the same model to commercial crew, and most recently for commercial lunar landers.

Uncharacteristically for ESA, the agency is taking a hands-off approach for the launcher challenge. One of the few major requirements is that the winners should offer a “European launch service” that flies from European territory, which includes the French-run Guiana Space Center in South America.

Europe’s second Ariane 6 rocket lifted off March 6 with a French military spy satellite. Credit: European Space Agency

“We are trying something different, where they are completely free to organize themselves,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “We are not pushing anything. We are in a complete service-oriented model here. That’s the principal difference between the new approach and the old approach.”

ESA also isn’t setting requirements on launcher performance, reusability, or the exact number of companies it will select in the challenge. But ESA would like to limit the number of challengers “to a minimum” to ensure the agency’s support is meaningful, without spreading its funding too thin, Tolker-Nielsen said.

“For the ESA-developed launchers, which are Ariane 6 and Vega C, we own the launch system,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “We finished the development, and the deliverables were the launch systems that we own at ESA, and we make it available to an operator—Arianespace, and Avio soon for Vega C—to exploit.”

These ESA-led launcher projects were expensive. The development of Ariane 6 cost European governments more than $4 billion. Ariane 6 is now flying, but none of the up-and-coming European alternatives is operational.

Next steps

It has taken a while to set up the European Launcher Challenge, which won preliminary approval from ESA’s 23 member states at a ministerial-level meeting in 2023. ESA released an “invitation to tender,” soliciting proposals from European launch companies Monday, with submissions due by May 5. This summer, ESA expects to select the top proposals and prepare a funding package for consideration by its member states at the next ministerial meeting in November.

The top factors ESA will consider in this first phase of the challenge are each proposer’s business plan, technical credibility, and financial credibility.

In a statement, ESA said it has allotted up to 169 million euros ($182 million at today’s exchange rates) per challenger. This is significant funding for Europe’s crop of cash-hungry launch startups, each of which has raised no more than a few hundred million euros. But this allotment comes with a catch. ESA’s leaders and the winners of the launch challenge must persuade their home governments to pay up.

Let’s take a moment to compare Europe’s launch industry with that of the United States.

There are multiple viable US commercial launch companies. In the United States, it’s easier to attract venture capital, the government has been a more reliable proponent of commercial spaceflight, and billionaires are part of the launch landscape. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, dominates the market. Jeff Bezos’s space company, Blue Origin, and United Launch Alliance are also big players with heavy-lift rockets.

Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace fly smaller, privately developed launchers. Northrop Grumman’s medium-class launch division is currently in between rockets, although it still occasionally launches small US military satellites on Minotaur rockets derived from decommissioned ICBMs.

Of course, it’s not surprising the sum of US launch companies is higher than in Europe. According to the World Bank, the US economy is about 50 percent larger than the European Union’s. But six American companies with operational orbital rockets, compared to one in Europe today? That is woefully out of proportion.

European officials would like to regain a leading position in the global commercial launch market. With SpaceX’s dominance, that’s a tall hill to climb. At the very least, European politicians don’t want to rely on other countries for access to space. In the last three years, they’ve seen their access to Russian launchers dry up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and after signing a few launch contracts with SpaceX to bridge the gap before the first flight of Ariane 6, they now view the US government and Elon Musk as unreliable partners.

Open your checkbook, please

ESA’s governance structure isn’t favorable for taking quick action. On one hand, ESA member states approve the agency’s budget in multiyear increments, giving its projects a sense of stability over time. However, it takes time to get new projects approved, and ESA’s member states expect to receive benefits—jobs, investment, and infrastructure—commensurate with their spending on European space programs. This policy is known as geographical return, or geo-return.

For example, France has placed a high strategic importance on fielding an independent European launch capability for more than 60 years. The administration of French President Charles de Gaulle made this determination during the Cold War, around the same time he decided France should have a nuclear deterrent fully independent of the United States and NATO.

In order to match this policy, France has been more willing than other European nations to invest in launchers. This means the Ariane rocket family, developed and funded through ESA contracts, has been largely a French enterprise since the first Ariane launch in 1979.

This model is becoming antiquated in the era of commercial spaceflight. Startups across Europe, primarily in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Spain, are developing small launchers designed to carry up to 1.5 metric tons of payload to low-Earth orbit. This is too small to directly compete with the Ariane 6 rocket, but eventually, these companies would like to develop larger launchers.

Some European officials, including the former head of the French space agency, blamed geo-return as a reason the Ariane 6 rocket missed its price target.

Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA’s acting director of space transportation, speaks at an event in 2021. Credit: ESA/V. Stefanelli

With the European Launcher Challenge, ESA will experiment with a new funding model for the first time. This new “fair contribution” approach will see ESA leadership put forward a plan to its member states at the next big ministerial conference in November. The space agency will ask the countries that benefit most from the winners of the launcher challenge to provide the bulk of the funding for the challengers’ contracts.

So, let’s say Isar Aerospace, which is set to launch its first rocket as soon as this week, is one of the challenge winners. Isar is headquartered in Munich, and its current launch site is in Norway. In this case, expect ESA to ask the governments of Germany and Norway to contribute the most money to pay for Isar’s contract.

MaiaSpace, a French subsidiary of ArianeGroup, the parent company of Arianespace, is also a contender in the launcher challenge. MaiaSpace plans to launch from French Guiana. Therefore, if MaiaSpace gets a contract, France would be on the hook for the lion’s share of the deal’s funding.

Tolker-Nielsen said he anticipates a “number” of the launch challengers will win the backing of their home countries in November, but “maybe not all.”

“So, first there is this criteria that they have to be eligible, and then they have to be funded as well,” he said. “We don’t want to propose funding for companies that we don’t see as credible.”

Assuming the challengers’ contracts get funded, ESA will then work with the European Commission to assign specific satellites to launch on the new commercial rockets.

“The way I look at this is we are not going to choose winners,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “The challenge is not the competition we are doing right now. It is to deliver on the contract. That’s the challenge.”

Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space companies and the world’s space agencies. Stephen writes about the nexus of technology, science, policy, and business on and off the planet.

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We’ve outsourced our confirmation biases to search engines

cognitive bias, confirmation bias, Human behavior, Science, search engines / Beth Washington / March 26, 2025

So, the researchers decided to see if they could upend it.

Keeping it general

The simplest way to change the dynamics of this was simply to change the results returned by the search. So, the researchers did a number of experiments where they gave all of the participants the same results, regardless of the search terms they had used. When everybody gets the same results, their opinions after reading them tend to move in the same direction, suggesting that search results can help change people’s opinions.

The researchers also tried giving everyone the results of a broad, neutral search, regardless of the terms they’d entered. This weakened the probability that beliefs would last through the process of formulating and executing a search. In other words, avoiding the sorts of focused, biased search terms allowed some participants to see information that could change their minds.

Despite all the swapping, participants continued to rate the search results relevant. So, providing more general search results even when people were looking for more focused information doesn’t seem to harm people’s perception of the service. In fact, Leung and Urminsky found that the AI version of Bing search would reformulate narrow questions into more general ones.

That said, making this sort of change wouldn’t be without risks. There are a lot of subject areas where a search shouldn’t return a broad range of information—where grabbing a range of ideas would expose people to fringe and false information.

Nevertheless, it can’t hurt to be aware of how we can use search services to reinforce our biases. So, in the words of Leung and Urminsky, “When search engines provide directionally narrow search results in response to users’ directionally narrow search terms, the results will reflect the users’ existing beliefs, instead of promoting belief updating by providing a broad spectrum of related information.”

PNAS, 2025. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2408175122 (About DOIs).

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As preps continue, it’s looking more likely NASA will fly the Artemis II mission

artemis, artemis II, human spaceflight, Kennedy Space Center, launch, moon, NASA, Science, Space, space launch system / Beth Washington / March 25, 2025

NASA’s existing architecture still has a limited shelf life, and the agency will probably have multiple options for transporting astronauts to and from the Moon in the 2030s. A decision on the long-term future of SLS and Orion isn’t expected until the Trump administration’s nominee for NASA administrator, Jared Isaacman, takes office after confirmation by the Senate.

So, what is the plan for SLS?

There are different degrees of cancellation options. The most draconian would be an immediate order to stop work on Artemis II preparations. This is looking less likely than it did a few months ago and would come with its own costs. It would cost untold millions of dollars to disassemble and dispose of parts of Artemis II’s SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft. Canceling multibillion-dollar contracts with Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin would put NASA on the hook for significant termination costs.

Of course, these liabilities would be less than the $4.1 billion NASA’s inspector general estimates each of the first four Artemis missions will cost. Most of that money has already been spent for Artemis II, but if NASA spends several billion dollars on each Artemis mission, there won’t be much money left over to do other cool things.

Other options for NASA might be to set a transition point when the Artemis program would move off of the Space Launch System rocket, and perhaps even the Orion spacecraft, and switch to new vehicles.

Looking down on the Space Launch System for Artemis II. Credit: NASA/Frank Michaux

Another possibility, which seems to be low-hanging fruit for Artemis decision-makers, could be to cancel the development of a larger Exploration Upper Stage for the SLS rocket. If there are a finite number of SLS flights on NASA’s schedule, it’s difficult to justify the projected $5.7 billion cost of developing the upgraded Block 1B version of the Space Launch System. There are commercial options available to replace the rocket’s Boeing-built Exploration Upper Stage, as my colleague Eric Berger aptly described in a feature story last year.

For now, it looks like NASA’s orange behemoth has a little life left in it. All the hardware for the Artemis II mission has arrived at the launch site in Florida.

The Trump administration will release its fiscal-year 2026 budget request in the coming weeks. Maybe then NASA will also have a permanent administrator, and the veil will lift over the White House’s plans for Artemis.

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Should we be concerned about the loss of weather balloons?

radiosonde, Science, Weather, weather balloons / DJ Henderson / March 25, 2025

Most of the time, not a big deal. But in critical times, the losses will be felt.

A radiosonde with mailing instructions. Credit: NWS Pittsburgh

Due to staff reductions, retirements, and a federal hiring freeze, the National Weather Service has announced a series of suspensions involving weather balloon launches in recent weeks. The question is, will this significantly degrade forecasts in the United States and around the world?

On February 27, it was announced that balloon launches would be suspended entirely at Kotzebue, Alaska, due to staffing shortages. In early March, Albany, N.Y., and Gray, Maine, announced periodic disruptions in launches. Since March 7, it appears that Gray has not missed any balloon launches through Saturday. Albany, however, has missed 14 of them, all during the morning launch cycle (12z).

The kicker came on Thursday afternoon when it was announced that all balloon launches would be suspended in Omaha, Neb., and Rapid City, S.D., due to staffing shortages. Additionally, the balloon launches in Aberdeen, S.D.; Grand Junction, Colo.; Green Bay, Wis.; Gaylord, Mich.; North Platte, Neb.; and Riverton, Wyo., would be reduced to once a day from twice a day.

What are weather balloons?

In a normal time, weather balloons would be launched across the country and world twice per day, right at about 8 am ET and 8 pm ET (one hour earlier in winter), or what we call 12z and 00z. That’s Zulu time, or noon and midnight in Greenwich, England. Rather than explain the whole reasoning behind why we use Zulu time in meteorology, here’s a primer on everything you need to know. Weather balloons are launched around the world at the same time. It’s a unique collaboration and example of global cooperation in the sciences, something that has endured for many years.

These weather balloons are loaded up with hydrogen or helium, soar into the sky, up to and beyond jet stream level, getting to a height of over 100,000 feet before they pop. Attached to the weather balloon is a tool known as a radiosonde, or “sonde” for short. This is basically a weather-sensing device that measures all sorts of weather variables like temperature, dewpoint, pressure, and more. Wind speed is usually derived from this based on GPS transmitting from the sonde.

Sunday morning’s upper air launch map showing a gaping hole over the Rockies and some of the Plains. Credit: University of Wyoming

What goes up must come down, so when the balloon pops, that radiosonde falls from the sky. A parachute is attached to it, slowing its descent and ensuring no one gets plunked on the head by one. If you find a radiosonde, it should be clearly marked, and you can keep it, let the NWS know you found it, or dispose of it properly. In some instances, there may still be a way to mail it back to the NWS (postage and envelope included and prepaid).

How this data is used

In order to run a weather model, you need an accurate snapshot of what we call the initial conditions. What is the weather at time = zero? That’s your initialization point. Not coincidentally, weather models are almost always run at 12z and 00z, to time in line with retrieving the data from these weather balloons. It’s a critically important input to almost all weather modeling we use.

The data from balloon launches can be plotted on a chart called a sounding, which gives meteorologists a vertical profile of the atmosphere at a point. During severe weather season, we use these observations to understand the environment we are in, assess risks to model output, and make changes to our own forecasts. During winter, these observations are critical to knowing if a storm will produce snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

Observations from soundings are important inputs for assessing turbulence that may impact air travel, marine weather, fire weather, and air pollution. Other than some tools on some aircraft that we utilize, the data from balloon launches is the only real good verification tool we have for understanding how the upper atmosphere is behaving.

Have we lost weather balloon data before?

We typically lose out on a data point or two each day for various reasons when the balloons are launched. We’ve also been operating without a weather balloon launch in Chatham, Mass., for a few years because coastal erosion made the site too challenging and unsafe.

Tallahassee, Fla., has been pausing balloon launches for almost a year now due to a helium shortage and inability to safely switch to hydrogen gas for launching the balloons. In Denver, balloon launches have been paused since 2022 due to the helium shortage as well.

Those are three sites, though, spread out across the country. We are doubling or tripling the number of sites without launches now, many in critical areas upstream of significant weather.

Can satellites replace weather balloons?

Yes and no.

On one hand, satellites today are capable of incredible observations that can rival weather balloons at times. And they also cover the globe constantly, which is important. That being said, satellites cannot completely replace balloon launches. Why? Because the radiosonde data those balloon launches give us basically acts as a verification metric for models in a way that satellites cannot. It also helps calibrate derived satellite data to ensure that what the satellite is seeing is recorded correctly.

But in general, satellites cannot yet replace weather balloons. They merely act to improve upon what weather balloons do. A study done in the middle part of the last decade found that wind observations improved rainfall forecasts by 30 percent. The one tool at that time that made the biggest difference in improving the forecast were radiosondes. Has this changed since then? Yes, almost certainly. Our satellites have better resolution, are capable of getting more data, and send data back more frequently. So certainly, it’s improved some. But enough? That’s unclear.

An analysis done more recently on the value of dropsondes (the opposite of balloon launches; this time, the sensor is dropped from an aircraft instead of launched from the ground) in forecasting West Coast atmospheric rivers showed a marked improvement in forecasts when those targeted drops occur. Another study in 2017 showed that aircraft observations actually did a good job filling gaps in the upper air data network.

Even with aircraft observations, there were mixed studies done in the wake of the COVID-19 reduction in air travel that suggested no impact could be detected above usual forecast error noise or that there was some regional degradation in model performance.

But to be quite honest, there have not been many studies that I can find in recent years that assess how the new breed of satellites has (or has not) changed the value of upper-air observations. The NASA GEOS model keeps a record of what data sources are of most impact to model verification with respect to 24-hour forecasts. Number two on the list? Radiosondes. This could be considered probably a loose comp to the GFS model, one of the major weather models used by meteorologists globally.

The verdict

In reality, the verdict in all this is to be determined, particularly statistically. Will it make a meaningful statistical difference in model accuracy? Over time, yes, probably, but not in ways that most people will notice day to day.

However, based on 20 years of experience and a number of conversations about this with others in the field, there are some very real, very serious concerns beyond statistics. One thing is that the suspended weather balloon launches are occurring in relatively important areas for weather impacts downstream. A missed weather balloon launch in Omaha or Albany won’t impact the forecast in California. But what if a hurricane is coming? What if a severe weather event is coming? You’ll definitely see impacts to forecast quality during major, impactful events. At the very least, these launch suspensions will increase the noise-to-signal ratio with respect to forecasts.

The element with the second-highest impact on the NASA GEOS model? Radiosondes. Credit: NASA

In other words, there may be situations where you have a severe weather event expected to kickstart in one place, but the lack of knowing the precise location of an upper air disturbance in the Rockies thanks to a suspended launch from Grand Junction, Colo., will lead to those storms forming 50 miles farther east than expected. In other words, losing this data increases the risk profile for more people in terms of knowing about weather, particularly high-impact weather.

Let’s say we have a hurricane in the Gulf that is rapidly intensifying, and we are expecting it to turn north and northeast thanks to a strong upper-air disturbance coming out of the Rockies, leading to landfall on the Alabama coast. What if the lack of upper-air observations has led to that disturbance being misplaced by 75 miles. Now, instead of Alabama, the storm is heading toward New Orleans. Is this an extreme example? Honestly, I don’t think it is as extreme as you might think. We often have timing and amplitude forecast issues with upper-air disturbances during hurricane season, and the reality is that we may have to make some more frequent last-second adjustments now that we didn’t have to in recent years. As a Gulf Coast resident, this is very concerning.

I don’t want to overstate things. Weather forecasts aren’t going to dramatically degrade day to day because we’ve reduced some balloon launches across the country. They will degrade, but the general public probably won’t notice much difference 90 percent of the time. But that 10 percent of the time? It’s not that the differences will be gigantic. But the impact of those differences could very well be gigantic, put more people in harm’s way, and increase the risk profile for an awful lot of people. That’s what this does: It increases the risk profile, it will lead to reduced weather forecast skill scores, and it may lead to an event that surprises a portion of the population that isn’t used to be surprised in the 2020s. To me, that makes the value of weather balloons very, very significant, and I find these cuts to be extremely troubling.

Should further cuts in staffing lead to further suspensions in weather balloon launches, we will see this problem magnify more often and involve bigger misses. In other words, the impacts here may not be linear, and repeated increased loss of real-world observational data will lead to very significant degradation in weather model performance that may be noticed more often than described above.

This story originally appeared on The Eyewall.

The Eyewall is dedicated to covering tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The site was founded in June 2023 by Matt Lanza and Eric Berger, who work together on the Houston-based forecasting site Space City Weather.

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David Blaine shows his hand in Do Not Attempt

David Blaine, Disney Plus, documentary series, magic, magicians, National Geographic, Science / 9u50fv / March 24, 2025

NatGeo docuseries follows Blaine around the world to learn the secrets of ordinary people doing remarkable feats.

Magician David Blaine smiles while running his hand through a flame. Credit: National Geographic/Dana Hayes

Over the course of his long career, magician and endurance performer David Blaine has taken on all kinds of death-defying feats: catching a bullet in his teeth, fasting for 44 days, or holding his breath for a record-breaking 17 minutes and 4 seconds, to name a few. Viewers will get to see a different side of Blaine as he travels the world to meet kindred spirits from a wide range of cultures in David Blaine Do Not Attempt, a new six-episode docuseries from National Geographic.

(Some spoilers below.)

The series was shot over three calendar years (2022-2024) in nine different countries and features Blaine interacting with, and learning from, all manner of daredevils, athletes, street performers, and magicians. In Southeast Asia, for instance, he watches practitioners of an Indonesian martial art called Debus manipulate razor blades in their mouths and eat nails. (There is no trick to this, just conditioned endurance to pain, as Blaine discovers when he attempts to eat nails: his throat was sore for days.) He braves placing scorpions on his body, breaks a bottle with his head, and sets himself on fire in Brazil while jumping off a high bridge.

One of the elements that sets this series apart from Blaine’s previous magical specials is his willingness to be filmed practicing and training to do the various featured stunts, including early failed attempts. This makes him seem more vulnerable and immensely likable—even if it made him personally uncomfortable during filming.

David Blaine and Amandeep Singh prepare to break bottles with their fists. National Geographic

“I’ve always kept that part hidden,” Blaine told Ars. “Normally I work for a few years and I develop [a stunt] until I feel pretty good about it, and then I go and do the stunt and push myself as far as possible. But in this scenario, it was so many places, so many people, so many events, so many feats, so many things to learn so fast. So it was me in a way that I never liked to show myself: awkward and uncomfortable and screaming and laughing. It’s the things that as a magician, I always hide. As a magician, I try to be very monotone and let the audience react. For this series, I was the spectator to the magic, and it was, for me, very uncomfortable. But I was watching these amazing performers—what I consider to be magicians.”

Safety first

The task of keeping Blaine and the entire crew safe in what are unquestionably dangerous situations falls to safety expert Sebastian “Bas” Pot. “I joke that my title is Glorifed Nanny,” Pot told Ars. “I specialize in taking people to very remote locations where they want to do insane things. I have three basic rules: No one dies, everyone gets paid, and we all smile and laugh every day. If I achieve those three things, my job is done.” He deliberately keeps himself out of the shot; there is only one scene in Do Not Attempt where we see Pot’s face as he’s discussing the risks of a stunt with Blaine.

Blaine has always taken on risks, but because he has historically hidden his preparation from public view, viewers might not realize how cautious he really is. “What people tend to forget about guys like David is that they’re very calculated,” said Pot. The biggest difference between working with Blaine and other clients? “Normally I’ll do everything, I will never ask anyone to do anything that I wouldn’t do myself,” said Pot. “David is taking huge risks, and there’s a lot that he does that I wouldn’t do.”

Like Blaine, Pot also emphasized the importance of repetition to safety. In addition, “A huge amount of it is keeping the calm on set, listening and observing and not getting caught up in the excitement of what’s going on,” he said. While he uses some basic technology for tasks like measuring wind speed, checking for concussion, or monitoring vital signs, for the most part keeping the set safe “is very much about switching off from the technology,” he said.

Ken Stornes leaps from a platform in a Norwegian death dive. National Geographic/Dana Hayes

And when everyone else on set is watching Blaine, “I’m looking outwards, because I’ve got enough eyes on him,” said Pot. There was only one bad accident during filming, involving a skydiving crew member during the Arctic Circle episode who suffered a spinal fracture after a bad landing. The crew member recuperated and was back in the wind tunnel practicing within a month.

This is the episode where Blaine attempts a Viking “death dive” into a snow drift under the tutelage of a Norwegian man named Ken Stornes, with one key difference: Stornes jumps from much greater heights. He also participates in a sky dive. But the episode mostly focuses on Blaine’s training with free divers under the ice to prepare for a stunt in which Blaine swims from one point under Finnish ice to another, pulling himself along with a rope while holding his breath. A large part of his motivation for attempting it was his failed 2006 “Drowned Alive” seven-day stunt in front of Lincoln Center in New York. (He sustained liver and kidney damage as a result.)

“One of my favorite quotes is Churchill, when he says, ‘Success is the ability to go from one failure to the next failure with enthusiasm,'” said Blaine. “That’s what this entire series is. It’s these incredible artists and performers and conservationists and people that do these incredible feats, but it’s the thousands of hours of work, training, failure, repeat that you don’t see that makes what they do seem magical. There’s no guidebook for what they’re doing. But they’ve developed these things to the point that when I was watching them, I’m crying with joy. I can’t believe that what I’m seeing is really happening in front of my eyes. It is magical. And it’s because of the amount of repetition, work, failure, repeat that they put in behind the curtain that you don’t see.”

This time, Blaine succeeded. “It was an incredible experience with these artists that have taken this harsh environment and turned it into a wonderland,” said Blaine of his Arctic experience. “The free divers go under three and a half feet of ice, hold their breath. There’s no way out. They have to find the exit point.”

“When you stop and look, you forget that you’re in this extreme environment and suddenly it’s the most beautiful surroundings, unlike anything that I’ve ever seen,” he said. “It’s almost like being in outer space. And when you’re in that extreme and dangerous situation, there’s this camaraderie, they’re all in it together. At the same time, they’re all very alert. There’s no distractions. Nobody’s thinking about messages, phones, bills. Everybody’s right there in that moment. And you’re very aware of everything around you in a way that normally in the real world doesn’t exist.”

Blaine admits that his attitude toward risk has changed somewhat with age. “I’m older and I have a daughter, and therefore I don’t want to do something where, oh, it went wrong and it’s the worst-case scenario,” he said. “So I have been very careful. If something seemed like the risk wasn’t worth it, I backed away. For some of these things, I would just have to watch, study, learn, take time off, come back. I wouldn’t do it unless I felt that the master who was sharing their skillset with me felt that I could pull it off. There was a trust, and I was able to listen and follow exactly. That ability to listen to directions and commit to something is a very necessary part to pulling something off like this.”

Granted, he didn’t always listen. When he deliberately attracted a swarm of bees to make a “bee beard,” he was advised to wear a white T-shirt to avoid getting stung. But black is Blaine’s signature color, and he decided to stick with it. He did indeed get stung about a dozen times but took the pain in stride. “He takes responsibility for him,” Pot (who is a beekeeper) said of that decision. “I’d tell a crew member to go change their T-shirt and they would.”

The dedication to proper preparation and training is evident throughout Do Not Attempt, but particularly in the Southeast Asia-centric episode where Blaine attempts to kiss a venomous King Cobra—what Pot considers to be the most dangerous stunt in the series. “The one person I’ve ever had die was a snake expert in Venezuela years ago, who got bitten by his own snake because he chose not to follow the safety protocols we had put in place,” said Pot.

Kissing a cobra

So there were weeks of preparation before Blaine even attempted the stunt, guided by an Indonesian Debus practitioner named Fiitz, who can read the creatures’ body language so effortlessly he seems to be dancing with the snakes. (Note: no animals were harmed over the course of filming.) The final shot (see clip below) took 10 days to film. Antivenom was naturally on hand, but while antivenom might save your life if you’re bitten by a King Cobra, “the journey you’re going to go on will be hell,” Pol said. “You can still have massive necrosis, lose a limb, it might take weeks—there’s no guarantees at all [for recovery].” And administering antivenom can induce cardiac shock if it’s not done correctly. “You don’t want some random set medic reading instructions off Google on how to give antivenom” said Pot.

David Blaine kisses a King Cobra with the expert guidance of Debus practitioner Fiitz.

Blaine’s genuine appreciation for the many performers he encounters in his journey is evident in every frame. “[The experience] changed me in a way that you can’t simply explain,” Blaine said. “It was incredible to discover these kindred spirits all around the world, people who had these amazing passions. Many of them had to go against what everybody said was possible. Many of them had to fail, repeat, embarrass themselves, risk everything, and learn. That was one of the greatest experiences: discovering this unification of all these people from all different parts of the world that I felt had that theme in common. It was nice to be there firsthand, getting a glimpse into their world or seeing what drives them.”

“The other part that was really special: I became a person that gets to watch real magic happening in front of my eyes,” Blaine continued. “When I’m up in the sky watching [a skydiver named] Inka, I’m actually crying tears of joy because it’s so compelling and so beautiful. So many of these places around the world had these amazing performers. Across the board, each place, every continent, every person, every performer has given me a gift that I’ll cherish for the rest of my life.”

David Blaine Do Not Attempt premieres tonight on National Geographic and starts streaming tomorrow on Disney+ and Hulu.

Jennifer is a senior writer at Ars Technica with a particular focus on where science meets culture, covering everything from physics and related interdisciplinary topics to her favorite films and TV series. Jennifer lives in Baltimore with her spouse, physicist Sean M. Carroll, and their two cats, Ariel and Caliban.

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This launcher is about to displace the V-2 as Germany’s largest rocket

Commercial space, Europe, european space agency, germany, isar aerospace, launch, Norway, Science, Space / Mike M. / March 24, 2025

Isar Aerospace’s first Spectrum rocket will launch from Andøya Spaceport in Norway.

Seven years ago, three classmates at the Technical University of Munich believed their student engineering project might hold some promise in the private sector.

At the time, Daniel Metzler led a team of 40 students working on rocket engines and launching sounding rockets. Josef Fleischmann was on the team that won the first SpaceX Hyperloop competition. Together with another classmate, Markus Brandl, they crafted rocket parts in a campus workshop before taking the leap and establishing Isar Aerospace, named for the river running through the Bavarian capital.

Now, Isar’s big moment has arrived. The company’s orbital-class first rocket, named Spectrum, is set to lift off from a shoreline launch pad in Norway as soon as Monday.

The three-hour launch window opens at 12: 30 pm local time in Norway, or 7: 30 am EDT in the United States. “The launch date remains subject to weather, safety and range infrastructure,” Isar said in a statement.

Isar’s Spectrum rocket rolls out to its launch pad in Norway. Credit: Isar Aerospace

Isar said it received a launch license from the Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority on March 14, following the final qualification test on the Spectrum rocket in February to validate its readiness for flight.

Notably, this will be the first orbital launch attempt from a launch pad in Western Europe. The French-run Guiana Space Center in South America is the primary spaceport for European rockets. Virgin Orbit staged an airborne launch attempt from an airport in the United Kingdom in 2023, and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome is located in European Russia.

No guarantees

Success is never assured on the inaugural launch of a new rocket. Isar is the first in a wave of European launch startups to arrive at this point. The company developed the Spectrum rocket with mostly private funding, although Isar received multimillion-euro investments from the European Space Agency, the German government, and the NATO Innovation Fund.

All told, Isar says it has raised more than 400 million euros, or $435 million at today’s currency exchange rate, more than any other European launch startup.

“We are approaching the most important moment of our journey so far, and I would like to thank all our team, partners, customers and investors who have been accompanying and trusting us,” said Daniel Metzler, Isar’s co-founder and CEO, in a statement.

Most privately developed rockets have failed to reach orbit on the first try. Several US launch companies that evolved in a similar mold as Isar—such as Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace, and Astra—faltered on the way to orbit on their rockets’ first flights.

“With this mission, Isar Aerospace aims to collect as much data and experience as possible on its in-house-developed launch vehicle. It is the first integrated test of all systems,” said Alexandre Dalloneau, Isar’s vice president of mission and launch operations.

“The test results will feed into the iterations and development of future Spectrum vehicles, which are being built and tested in parallel,” Isar said in a statement.

Look familiar? Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket is powered by nine first-stage engines arranged in an “octaweb” configuration patterned on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. Credit: Isar Aerospace/Wingmen Media

Europe has struggled to regain its footing after SpaceX took over the dominant position in the global commercial launch market, a segment led for three decades by Europe’s Ariane rocket family before SpaceX proved the reliability of the lower-cost, partially reusable Falcon 9 launcher. The continent’s new Ariane 6 rocket, funded by ESA and built by a consortium owned by multinational firms Airbus and Safran, is more expensive than the Falcon 9 and years behind schedule. It finally debuted last year.

One ton to LEO

Isar’s Spectrum rocket is not as powerful as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Arianespace’s Ariane 6. But even SpaceX had to start somewhere. Its small Falcon 1 rocket failed three times before tasting success. Spectrum is somewhat larger and more capable than Falcon 1, with performance in line with Firefly’s Alpha rocket.

The fully assembled Spectrum rocket stands about 92 feet (28 meters) tall and measures more than 6 feet (2 meters) in diameter. The expendable launcher is designed to haul payloads up to 1 metric ton (2,200 pounds) into low-Earth orbit. Spectrum is powered by nine Aquila engines on its first stage, and one engine on the second stage, burning a mixture of propane and liquid oxygen propellants.

There are no customer satellites aboard the first Spectrum test flight. The rocket will climb into a polar orbit from Andøya Spaceport in northern Norway, but Isar hasn’t published a launch timeline or the exact parameters of the target orbit.

While modest in size next to Europe’s Ariane launcher family, Isar’s Spectrum is the largest German rocket since the V-2, the World War II weapon of terror launched by Nazi Germany against targets in Great Britain, Belgium, and other places. In the 80 years since the war, German industry developed a handful of small sounding rockets and manufactured upper stages for Ariane rockets.

But German governments have long shunned spending on launchers at levels commensurate with the nation’s place as a top contributor to ESA. France took the lead in the continent’s postwar rocket industry, providing the lion’s share of funding for Ariane and taking responsibility for building engines and booster stages.

Now, 80 years to the week since the last V-2 launch of World War II, Germany again has a homegrown liquid-fueled rocket on the launch pad. This time, it’s for a much different purpose.

As a first step, Isar and other companies in Europe are vying to inject competition with Arianespace into the European launch market. This will begin with small government-funded satellites that otherwise would have likely launched on rideshare flights by SpaceX or Arianespace.

In 2022, the German space agency (known as DLR) announced the selection of research and demo payloads slated to fly on Spectrum’s second launch. The Norwegian Space Agency revealed a contract earlier this month for Isar to launch a pair of satellites for the country’s Arctic Ocean Surveillance program.

Within the next few days, ESA is expected to release an “invitation to tender” for European industry to submit proposals for the European Launcher Challenge. This summer, ESA will select winners from Europe’s crop of launch startups to demonstrate that their rockets can deliver the agency’s scientific satellites to orbit. This is the first time ESA has experimented with a fully commercial business model, with launch service contracts to private companies. Isar is a leading contender to win the launcher challenge, alongside other European companies like Rocket Factory Augsburg, HyImpulse, MaiaSpace, and others.

Previously, ESA has provided billions of euros to Europe’s big incumbent rocket companies for development of new generations of Ariane rockets. Now, ESA wants to follow the path of NASA, which has used fixed-price service contracts to foster commercial cargo and crew transportation to the International Space Station, and most recently, privately owned landers on the Moon.

“Whatever the outcome, Isar Aerospace’s upcoming Spectrum launch will be historic: the first commercial orbital launch from mainland Europe,” Josef Aschbacher, ESA’s director general, posted on X. “The support and co-funding the European Space Agency has given Isar Aerospace and other launch service provider startups is paying off for increased autonomy in Europe. Wishing Isar Aerospace a great launch day with fair weather and most importantly, that the data they receive from the liftoff will speed next iterations of their rockets.”

Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA’s acting director of space transportation, called this moment a “paradigm shift” for Europe’s launcher strategy.

“In the last 40 years, we have had these ESA-developed launchers that we have been relying on,” Tolker-Nielsen told Ars in an interview. “So we started with Ariane 1 up to Ariane 6. Vega C came onboard. And it’s been working like that for the last 40 years. Now, we are moving into in the ’30s, and the next decades, to have privately developed launchers.”

Isar Aerospace’s first Spectrum rocket will lift off from the remote Andøya Spaceport in Norway, a gorgeous location that might be the world’s most picturesque launch site. Nestled on the western coast of an island inside the Arctic Circle, Andøya offers an open path over the Norwegian Sea for rockets to fly north, where they can place satellites into polar orbit.

The spaceport is operated by Andøya Space, a company 90 percent owned by the Norwegian government through the Ministry for Trade, Industry, and Fisheries. Until now, Andøya Spaceport has been used for launches of suborbital sounding rockets.

The geography of Norway permits northerly launches from Andøya Spaceport. Credit: Andøya Space

No better time than now

Isar’s first launch comes amid an abrupt turn in European strategic policy as the continent’s leaders struggle with how to respond to moves by President Donald Trump in his first two months in office. In recent weeks, the Trump administration put European leaders on their heels with sudden policy reversals and unpredictable statements on Ukraine, NATO, and the US government’s long-term backstopping of European security.

Friedrich Merz, set to become Germany’s next chancellor, said last month that Europe should strive to “achieve independence” from the United States. “It is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”

Last week, Merz shepherded a bill through German parliament to amend the country’s constitution, allowing for a significant increase in German defense spending. The incoming chancellor said the change is “nothing less than the first major step towards a new European defense community.”

The erosion of Europe’s trust in the Trump administration prompted rumors that the US government could trigger a “kill switch” to turn off combat capabilities of F-35 fighter jets sold to US allies. This would have previously seemed like a far-fetched conspiracy theory, but some European officials felt compelled to make statements denying the kill switch reports. Still, the recent turbulence in trans-Atlantic relations has some US allies rethinking their plans to buy more US-made fighter jets and weapons systems.

“Reliable and predictable orders should go to European manufacturers whenever possible,” Merz said.

Robert Habeck, Germany’s vice chancellor and economics minister, tours Isar Aerospace in Ottobrunn, Germany, in 2023. Credit: Marijan Murat/picture alliance via Getty Images

This uncertainty extends to space, where it is most apparent in the launch industry. SpaceX, founded and led by Trump ally Elon Musk, dominates the global commercial launch business. European governments have repeatedly turned to SpaceX to launch multiple defense and scientific satellites over the last several years, while Europe encountered delays with its homegrown Ariane 6 and Vega rockets.

Until 2022, Europe and Russia jointly operated Soyuz rockets from the Guiana Space Center in South America to deploy government and commercial payloads to orbit. The partnership ended with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Europe’s flagship Ariane 5 rocket retired in 2023, a year before its replacement—the Ariane 6—debuted on its first test flight from the Guiana Space Center. The first operational flight of the Ariane 6 delivered a French military spy satellite to orbit March 6. The smaller Vega C rocket successfully launched in December, two years after officials grounded the vehicle due to an in-flight failure.

ESA funded development of the Ariane 6 and Vega C in partnership with ArianeGroup, a joint venture between Airbus and Safran, and the Italian defense contractor Avio.

For the moment, Europe’s launcher program is back on track to provide autonomous access to space, a capability European officials consider a strategic imperative. Philippe Baptiste, France’s minister for research and higher education, said after the Ariane 6 flight earlier this month that the launch was “proof” of European space sovereignty.

“The return of Donald Trump to the White House, with Elon Musk at his side, already has significant consequences on our research partnerships, on our commercial partnerships,” Baptiste said in his remarkably pointed prepared remarks. “If we want to maintain our independence, ensure our security, and preserve our sovereignty, we must equip ourselves with the means for strategic autonomy, and space is an essential part of this.”

The problem? Ariane 6 and Vega C are costly, lack a path to reusability, and aren’t geared to match SpaceX’s blistering launch cadence. If Europe wants autonomous access to space, European taxpayers will have to pay a premium. Isar’s Spectrum also isn’t reusable, but European officials hope competition from new startups will produce fresh launch options, and perhaps stimulate an inspired response from Europe’s entrenched launch companies.

“In today’s geopolitical climate, our first test flight is about much more than a rocket launch: Space is one of the most critical platforms for our security, resilience, and technological advancement,” Metzler said. “In the next days, Isar Aerospace will lay the foundations to regain much needed independent and competitive access to space from Europe.”

Tolker-Nielsen, in charge of ESA’s space transportation division, said this is the first of many steps for Europe to develop a thriving commercial launch sector.

“This launch is a milestone, which is very important,” he said. “It’s the first conclusion of all this work, so I will be looking carefully on that. I cross my fingers that it goes well.”

This launcher is about to displace the V-2 as Germany’s largest rocket Read More »

We probably inherited our joints from… a fish

Biology, developmental biology, evolution, joints, paleontology, Science, synovial joints / Mike M. / March 23, 2025

What do we have in common with fish, besides being vertebrates? The types of joints we (and most vertebrates) share most likely originated from the same common ancestor. But it’s not a feature that we share with all vertebrates.

Humans, other land vertebrates, and jawed fish have synovial joints. The lubricated cavity within these joints makes them more mobile and stable because it allows for bones or cartilage to slide against each other without friction, which facilitates movement.

The origin of these joints was uncertain. Now, biologist Neelima Sharma of the University of Chicago and her colleagues have taken a look at which fish form this type of joint. Synovial joints are known to be present in jawed but not jawless fish. This left the question of whether they are just a feature of bony skeletons in general or if they are also found in fish with cartilaginous skeletons, such as sharks and skates (there are no land animals with cartilaginous skeletons).

As Sharma and her team found, cartilaginous fish with jaws, such as the skate embryos they studied, do develop these joints, while jawless fish, such as lampreys and hagfish, lack them.

So what could this mean? If jawed fish have synovial joints in common with all jawed vertebrates, including us, it must have evolved in our shared ancestor.

Something fishy in our past

While the common ancestor of vertebrates with synovial joints is still a mystery, the oldest specimen with evidence of these joints is Bothriolepis canadensis, a fish that lived about 387 to 360 million years ago during the Middle to Late Devonian period.

When using CT scanning to study a Bothriolepis fossil, Sharma observed a joint cavity between the shoulder and pectoral fin. Whether the cavity was filled with synovial fluid or cartilage is impossible to tell, but either way, she thinks it appears to have functioned like a synovial joint would. Fossils of early jawless fish, in contrast, lack any signs of synovial joints.

We probably inherited our joints from… a fish Read More »

How the language of job postings can attract rule-bending narcissists

hiring, narcississm, psychology, Science, Social science, syndication / Beth Washington / March 23, 2025

Why it matters

Companies write job postings carefully in hopes of attracting the ideal candidate. However, they may unknowingly attract and select narcissistic candidates whose goals and ethics might not align with a company’s values or long-term success. Research shows that narcissistic employees are more likely to behave unethically, potentially leading to legal consequences.

While narcissistic traits can lead to negative outcomes, we aren’t saying that companies should avoid attracting narcissistic applicants altogether. Consider a company hiring a salesperson. A firm can benefit from a salesperson who is persuasive, who “thinks outside the box,” and who is “results-oriented.” In contrast, a company hiring an accountant or compliance officer would likely benefit from someone who “thinks methodically” and “communicates in a straightforward and accurate manner.”

Bending the rules is of particular concern in accounting. A significant amount of research examines how accounting managers sometimes bend rules or massage the numbers to achieve earnings targets. This “earnings management” can misrepresent the company’s true financial position.

In fact, my co-author Nick Seybert is currently working on a paper whose data suggests rule-bender language in accounting job postings predicts rule-bending in financial reporting.

Our current findings shed light on the importance of carefully crafting job posting language. Recruiting professionals may instinctively use rule-bender language to try to attract someone who seems like a good fit. If companies are concerned about hiring narcissists, they may want to clearly communicate their ethical values and needs while crafting a job posting, or avoid rule-bender language entirely.

What still isn’t known

While we find that professional recruiters are using language that attracts narcissists, it is unclear whether this is intentional.

Additionally, we are unsure what really drives rule-bending in a company. Rule-bending could happen due to attracting and hiring more narcissistic candidates, or it could be because of a company’s culture—or a combination of both.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

Jonathan Gay is Assistant Professor of Accountancy at the University of Mississippi.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Measles arrives in Kansas, spreads quickly in undervaccinated counties

health, Infectious disease, kansas, measles, MMR, outbreak, Science, texas, unvaccinated, vaccinated, virus / DJ Henderson / March 22, 2025

On Thursday, the county on the northern border of Stevens, Grant County, also reported three confirmed cases, which were also linked to the first case in Stevens. Grant County is in a much better position to handle the outbreak than its neighbors; its one school district, Ulysses, reported 100 percent vaccination coverage for kindergartners in the 2023–2024 school year.

Outbreak risk

So far, details about the fast-rising cases are scant. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) has not published another press release about the cases since March 13. Ars Technica reached out to KDHE for more information but did not hear back before this story’s publication.

The outlet KWCH 12 News out of Wichita published a story Thursday, when there were just six cases reported in just Grant and Stevens Counties, saying that all six were in unvaccinated people and that no one had been hospitalized. On Friday, KWCH updated the story to note that the case count had increased to 10 and that the health department now considers the situation an outbreak.

Measles is an extremely infectious virus that can linger in airspace and on surfaces for up to two hours after an infected person has been in an area. Among unvaccinated people exposed to the virus, 90 percent will become infected.

Vaccination rates have slipped nationwide, creating pockets that have lost herd immunity and are vulnerable to fast-spreading, difficult-to-stop outbreaks. In the past, strong vaccination rates prevented such spread, and in 2000, the virus was declared eliminated, meaning there was no continuous spread of the virus over a 12-month period. Experts now fear that the US will lose its elimination status, meaning measles will once again be considered endemic to the country.

So far this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has documented 378 measles cases as of Thursday, March 20. That figure is already out of date.

On Friday, the Texas health department reported 309 cases in its ongoing outbreak. Forty people have been hospitalized, and one unvaccinated child with no underlying medical conditions has died. The outbreak has spilled over to New Mexico and Oklahoma. In New Mexico, officials reported Friday that the case count has risen to 42 cases, with two hospitalizations and one death in an unvaccinated adult. In Oklahoma, the case count stands at four.

Measles arrives in Kansas, spreads quickly in undervaccinated counties Read More »

“Infantile amnesia” occurs despite babies showing memory activity

Biology, infantile amnesia, memory, neurobiology, Science / Mike M. / March 22, 2025

For many of us, memories of our childhood have become a bit hazy, if not vanishing entirely. But nobody really remembers much before the age of 4, because nearly all humans experience what’s termed “infantile amnesia,” in which memories that might have formed before that age seemingly vanish as we move through adolescence. And it’s not just us; the phenomenon appears to occur in a number of our fellow mammals.

The simplest explanation for this would be that the systems that form long-term memories are simply immature and don’t start working effectively until children hit the age of 4. But a recent animal experiment suggests that the situation in mice is more complex: the memories are there, they’re just not normally accessible, although they can be re-activated. Now, a study that put human infants in an MRI tube suggests that memory activity starts by the age of 1, suggesting that the results in mice may apply to us.

Less than total recall

Mice are one of the species that we know experience infantile amnesia. And, thanks to over a century of research on mice, we have some sophisticated genetic tools that allow us to explore what’s actually involved in the apparent absence of the animals’ earliest memories.

A paper that came out last year describes a series of experiments that start by having very young mice learn to associate seeing a light come on with receiving a mild shock. If nothing else is done with those mice, that association will apparently be forgotten later in life due to infantile amnesia.

But in this case, the researchers could do something. Neural activity normally results in the activation of a set of genes. In these mice, the researchers engineered it so one of the genes that gets activated encodes a protein that can modify DNA. When this protein is made, it results in permanent changes to a second gene that was inserted in the animal’s DNA. Once activated through this process, the gene leads to the production of a light-activated ion channel.

“Infantile amnesia” occurs despite babies showing memory activity Read More »

Hints grow stronger that dark energy changes over time

cosmology, dark energy, Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, Lambda CDM, Physics, Science, the standard model / DJ Henderson / March 20, 2025

In its earliest days, the Universe was a hot, dense soup of subatomic particles, including hydrogen and helium nuclei, aka baryons. Tiny fluctuations created a rippling pattern through that early ionized plasma, which froze into a three-dimensional place as the Universe expanded and cooled. Those ripples, or bubbles, are known as baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). It’s possible to use BAOs as a kind of cosmic ruler to investigate the effects of dark energy over the history of the Universe.

DESI is a state-of-the-art instrument and can capture light from up to 5,000 celestial objects simultaneously. — DESI is a state-of-the-art instrument that can capture light from up to 5,000 celestial objects simultaneously.

That’s what DESI was designed to do: take precise measurements of the apparent size of these bubbles (both near and far) by determining the distances to galaxies and quasars over 11 billion years. That data can then be sliced into chunks to determine how fast the Universe was expanding at each point of time in the past, the better to model how dark energy was affecting that expansion.

An upward trend

Last year’s results were based on analysis of a full year’s worth of data taken from seven different slices of cosmic time and include 450,000 quasars, the largest ever collected, with a record-setting precision of the most distant epoch (between 8 to 11 billion years back) of 0.82 percent. While there was basic agreement with the Lamba CDM model, when those first-year results were combined with data from other studies (involving the cosmic microwave background radiation and Type Ia supernovae), some subtle differences cropped up.

Essentially, those differences suggested that the dark energy might be getting weaker. In terms of confidence, the results amounted to a 2.6-sigma level for the DESI’s data combined with CMB datasets. When adding the supernovae data, those numbers grew to 2.5-sigma, 3.5-sigma, or 3.9-sigma levels, depending on which particular supernova dataset was used.

It’s important to combine the DESI data with other independent measurements because “we want consistency,” said DESI co-spokesperson Will Percival of the University of Waterloo. “All of the different experiments should give us the same answer to how much matter there is in the Universe at present day, how fast the Universe is expanding. It’s no good if all the experiments agree with the Lambda-CDM model, but then give you different parameters. That just doesn’t work. Just saying it’s consistent to the Lambda-CDM, that’s not enough in itself. It has to be consistent with Lambda-CDM and give you the same parameters for the basic properties of that model.”

Hints grow stronger that dark energy changes over time Read More »

Brains of parrots, unlike songbirds, use human-like vocal control

Biology, brain, brain implants, language, neurobiology, Science, vocal control / 9u50fv / March 20, 2025

Due to past work, we’ve already identified the brain structure that controls the activity of the key vocal organ, the syrinx, located in the bird’s throat. The new study, done by Zetian Yang and Michael Long of New York University, managed to place fine electrodes into this area of the brain in both species and track the activity of neurons there while the birds were awake and going about normal activities. This allowed them to associate neural activity with any vocalizations made by the birds. For the budgerigars, they had an average of over 1,000 calls from each of the four birds carrying the implanted electrodes.

For the zebra finch, neural activity during song production showed a pattern that was based on timing; the same neurons tended to be most active at the same point in the song. You can think of this as a bit like a player piano central organizing principle, timing when different notes should be played. “Different configurations [of neurons] are active at different moments, representing an evolving population ‘barcode,’” as Yang and Long describe this pattern.

That is not at all what was seen with the budgerigars. Here, instead, they saw patterns where the same populations of neurons tended to be active when the bird was producing a similar sound. They broke the warbles down into parts that they characterized on a scale that ranged from harmonic to noisy. They found that the groups of neurons tended to be more active whenever the warble was harmonic, and different groups tended to spike when it got noisy. Those observations led them to identify a third population, which was active whenever the budgerigars produced a low-frequency sound.

In addition, Yang and Long analyzed the pitch of the vocalizations. Only about half of the neurons in the relevant region of the brain were linked to pitch. However, the half that was linked had small groups of neurons that fired during the production of a relatively narrow range of pitches. They could use the activity of as few as five individual neurons and accurately predict the pitch of the vocalizations at the time.

Brains of parrots, unlike songbirds, use human-like vocal control Read More »