Space

With new contracts, SpaceX will become the US military’s top launch provider

blue origin, falcon 9, falcon heavy, launch, military space, new glenn, Science, Space, spacex, united launch alliance, US Space Force, vulcan / DJ Henderson / April 5, 2025

The military’s stable of certified rockets will include Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Vulcan, and New Glenn.

A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket lifts off on June 25, 2024, with a GOES weather satellite for NOAA. Credit: SpaceX

The US Space Force announced Friday it selected SpaceX, United Launch Alliance, and Blue Origin for $13.7 billion in contracts to deliver the Pentagon’s most critical military to orbit into the early 2030s.

These missions will launch the government’s heaviest national security satellites, like the National Reconnaissance Office’s large bus-sized spy platforms, and deploy them into bespoke orbits. These types of launches often demand heavy-lift rockets with long-duration upper stages that can cruise through space for six or more hours.

The contracts awarded Friday are part of the next phase of the military’s space launch program once dominated by United Launch Alliance, the 50-50 joint venture between legacy defense contractors Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

After racking up a series of successful launches with its Falcon 9 rocket more than a decade ago, SpaceX sued the Air Force for the right to compete with ULA for the military’s most lucrative launch contracts. The Air Force relented in 2015 and allowed SpaceX to bid. Since then, SpaceX has won more than 40 percent of missions the Pentagon has ordered through the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, creating a relatively stable duopoly for the military’s launch needs.

The Space Force took over the responsibility for launch procurement from the Air Force after its creation in 2019. The next year, the Space Force signed another set of contracts with ULA and SpaceX for missions the military would order from 2020 through 2024. ULA’s new Vulcan rocket initially won 60 percent of these missions—known as NSSL Phase 2—but the Space Force reallocated a handful of launches to SpaceX after ULA encountered delays with Vulcan.

ULA’s Vulcan and SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets will launch the remaining 42 Phase 2 missions over the next several years, then move on to Phase 3, which the Space Force announced Friday.

Spreading the wealth

This next round of Space Force launch contracts will flip the script, with SpaceX taking the lion’s share of the missions. The breakdown of the military’s new firm fixed-price launch agreements goes like this:

SpaceX will get 28 missions worth approximately $5.9 billion
ULA will get 19 missions worth approximately $5.4 billion
Blue Origin will get seven missions worth approximately

That equates to a 60-40 split between SpaceX and ULA for the bulk of the missions. Going into the competition, military officials set aside seven additional missions to launch with a third provider, allowing a new player to gain a foothold in the market. The Space Force reserves the right to reapportion missions between the three providers if one of them runs into trouble.

The Pentagon confirmed an unnamed fourth company also submitted a proposal, but wasn’t selected for Phase 3.

Rounded to the nearest million, the contract with SpaceX averages out to $212 million per launch. For ULA, it’s $282 million, and Blue Origin’s price is $341 million per launch. But take these numbers with caution. The contracts include a lot of bells and whistles, pricing them higher than what a commercial customer might pay.

According to the Pentagon, the contracts provide “launch services, mission unique services, mission acceleration, quick reaction/anomaly resolution, special studies, launch service support, fleet surveillance, and early integration studies/mission analysis.”

Essentially, the Space Force is paying a premium to all three launch providers for schedule priority, tailored solutions, and access to data from every flight of each company’s rocket, among other things.

New Glenn lifts off on its debut flight. Credit: Blue Origin

“Winning 60% percent of the missions may sound generous, but the reality is that all SpaceX competitors combined cannot currently deliver the other 40%!,” Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder and CEO, posted on X. “I hope they succeed, but they aren’t there yet.”

This is true if you look at each company’s flight rate. SpaceX has launched Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets 140 times over the last 365 days. These are the flight-proven rockets SpaceX will use for its share of Space Force missions.

ULA has logged four missions in the same period, but just one with the Vulcan rocket it will use for future Space Force launches. And Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s space company, launched the heavy-lift New Glenn rocket on its first test flight in January.

“We are proud that we have launched 100 national security space missions and honored to continue serving the nation with our new Vulcan rocket,” said Tory Bruno, ULA’s president and CEO, in a statement.

ULA used the Delta IV and Atlas V rockets for most of the missions it has launched for the Pentagon. The Delta IV rocket family is now retired, and ULA will end production of the Atlas V rocket later this year. Now, ULA’s Vulcan rocket will take over as the company’s sole launch vehicle to serve the Pentagon. ULA aims to eventually ramp up the Vulcan launch cadence to fly up to 25 times per year.

After two successful test flights, the Space Force formally certified the Vulcan rocket last week, clearing the way for ULA to start using it for military missions in the coming months. While SpaceX has a clear advantage in number of launches, schedule assurance, and pricing—and reliability comparable to ULA—Bruno has recently touted the Vulcan rocket’s ability to maneuver over long periods in space as a differentiator.

“This award constitutes the most complex missions required for national security space,” Bruno said in a ULA press release. “Vulcan continues to use the world’s highest energy upper stage: the Centaur V. Centaur V’s unmatched flexibility and extreme endurance enables the most complex orbital insertions continuing to advance our nation’s capabilities in space.”

Blue Origin’s New Glenn must fly at least one more successful mission before the Space Force will certify it for Lane 2 missions. The selection of Blue Origin on Friday suggests military officials believe New Glenn is on track for certification by late 2026.

“Honored to serve additional national security missions in the coming years and contribute to our nation’s assured access to space,” Dave Limp, Blue Origin’s CEO, wrote on X. “This is a great endorsement of New Glenn’s capabilities, and we are committed to meeting the heavy lift needs of our US DoD and intelligence agency customers.”

Navigating NSSL

There’s something you must understand about the way the military buys launch services. For this round of competition, the Space Force divided the NSSL program into two lanes.

Friday’s announcement covers Lane 2 for traditional military satellites that operate thousands of miles above the Earth. This bucket includes things like GPS navigation satellites, NRO surveillance and eavesdropping platforms, and strategic communications satellites built to survive a nuclear war. The Space Force has a low tolerance for failure with these missions. Therefore, the military requires rockets be certified before they can launch big-ticket satellites, each of which often cost hundreds of millions, and sometimes billions, of dollars.

The Space Force required all Lane 2 bidders to show their rockets could reach nine “reference orbits” with payloads of a specified mass. Some of the orbits are difficult to reach, requiring technology that only SpaceX and ULA have demonstrated in the United States. Blue Origin plans to do so on a future flight.

This image shows what the Space Force’s fleet of missile warning and missile tracking satellites might look like in 2030, with a mix of platforms in geosynchronous orbit, medium-Earth orbit, and low-Earth orbit. The higher orbits will require launches by “Lane 2” providers. Credit: Space Systems Command

The military projects to order 54 launches in Lane 2 from this year through 2029, with announcements each October of exactly which missions will go to each launch provider. This year, it will be just SpaceX and ULA. The Space Force said Blue Origin won’t be eligible for firm orders until next year. The missions would launch between 2027 and 2032.

“America leads the world in space launch, and through these NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 contracts, we will ensure continued access to this vital domain,” said Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy, Acting Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisition and Integration. “These awards bolster our ability to launch critical defense satellites while strengthening our industrial base and enhancing operational readiness.”

Lane 1 is primarily for missions to low-Earth orbit. These payloads include tech demos, experimental missions, and the military’s mega-constellation of missile tracking and data relay satellites managed by the Space Development Agency. For Lane 1 missions, the Space Force won’t levy the burdensome certification and oversight requirements it has long employed for national security launches. The Pentagon is willing to accept more risk with Lane 1, encompassing at least 30 missions through the end of the 2020s, in an effort to broaden the military’s portfolio of launch providers and boost competition.

Last June, Space Systems Command chose SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin for eligibility to compete for Lane 1 missions. SpaceX won all nine of the first batch of Lane 1 missions put up for bids. The military recently added Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket and Stoke Space’s Nova rocket to the Lane 1 mix. Neither of those rockets have flown, and they will need at least one successful launch before approval to fly military payloads.

The Space Force has separate contract mechanisms for the military’s smallest satellites, which typically launch on SpaceX rideshare missions or dedicated launches with companies like Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace.

Military leaders like having all these options, and would like even more. If one launch provider or launch site is unavailable due to a technical problem—or, as some military officials now worry, an enemy attack—commanders want multiple backups in their toolkit. Market forces dictate that more competition should also lower prices.

“A robust and resilient space launch architecture is the foundation of both our economic prosperity and our national security,” said US Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman. “National Security Space Launch isn’t just a program; it’s a strategic necessity that delivers the critical space capabilities our warfighters depend on to fight and win.”

Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space companies and the world’s space agencies. Stephen writes about the nexus of technology, science, policy, and business on and off the planet.

With new contracts, SpaceX will become the US military’s top launch provider Read More »

SpinLaunch—yes, the centrifuge rocket company—is making a hard pivot to satellites

Space, spinlaunch / Mike M. / April 4, 2025

Outside of several mentions in the Rocket Report newsletter dating back to 2018, Ars Technica has not devoted too much attention to covering a novel California space company named SpinLaunch.

That’s because the premise is so outlandish as to almost not feel real. The company aims to build a kinetic launch system that spins a rocket around at speeds up to 4,700 mph (7,500 km/h) before sending it upward toward space. Then, at an altitude of 40 miles (60 km) or so, the rocket would ignite its engines to achieve orbital velocity. Essentially, SpinLaunch wants to yeet things into space.

But the company was no joke. After being founded in 2014, it raised more than $150 million over the next decade. It built a prototype accelerator in New Mexico and performed a series of flight tests. The flights reached altitudes of “tens of thousands” of feet, according to the company, and were often accompanied by slickly produced videos.

SpinLaunch goes quiet

Following this series of tests, by the end of 2022, the company went mostly quiet. It was not clear whether it ran out of funding, had hit some technical problems in trying to build a larger accelerator, or what. Somewhat ominously, SpinLaunch’s founder and chief executive, Jonathan Yaney, was replaced without explanation last May. The new leader would be David Wrenn, then serving as chief operating officer.

“I am confident in our ability to execute on the company’s mission and bring our integrated tech stack of low-cost space solutions to market,” Wrenn said at the time. “I look forward to sharing more details about our near- and long-term strategy in the coming months.”

Words like “tech stack” and “low-cost space solutions” sounded like nebulous corporate speak, and it was not clear what they meant. Nor did Wrenn immediately deliver on that promise, nearly a year ago, to share more details about the company’s near- and long-term strategy.

SpinLaunch—yes, the centrifuge rocket company—is making a hard pivot to satellites Read More »

Rocket Report: Next Starship flight to reuse booster; FAA clears New Glenn

rocket report, Space / 9u50fv / April 4, 2025

“The first Super Heavy reuse will be a step towards our goal of zero-touch reflight.”

SpaceX tests a Super Heavy booster that previously launched in January. Credit: SpaceX

Welcome to Edition 7.38 of the Rocket Report! SpaceX test fired a Super Heavy booster that launched in January on Thursday, in South Texas. This sets up the possibility of a reused Super Heavy rocket launching within the next several weeks, and would be an important step forward in the Starship launch program. It’s also a bold step given that there is a lot riding on this Starship launch, given that the last two have failed due to propulsion issues with the rocket’s upper stage.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

European commercial launch industry joins the space race. The first flight of Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket didn’t last long on Sunday, Ars reports. The booster’s nine engines switched off as the rocket cartwheeled upside-down and fell a short distance from its Arctic launch pad in Norway, ending the abbreviated test flight with a spectacular, fiery crash into the sea. However, it marked the beginning of something new in Europe as commercial startups begin launching rockets.

Learning to embrace failure … Isar Aerospace, based in Germany, was the first in a crop of new European rocket companies to attempt an orbital launch. Isar is one of a half-dozen or so European launch startups that could fly their orbital-class rockets in the next couple of years. Of this group, Isar has raised the most money, reporting more than 400 million euros ($430 million) of fundraising, primarily from venture capital sources. We are looking forward to the European launch industry heating up after a long period of development.

PLD Space signs launch agreement with D-Orbit. The Spanish launch company, PLD Space, announced an agreement this week with an Italy-based space transportation company, D-Orbit. As part of the agreement, D-Orbit’s ION orbital transfer vehicle will launch on PLD Space’s forthcoming rocket, the Miura 5. Although the announcement did not specify terms of the agreement, PLD Space said it has now filled “more than 80 percent” of the launch slots on its manifest until 2027.

Waiting on the rocket … The ION vehicle, essentially a dispenser of CubeSats, has previously flown several missions. The real question, therefore, concerns the readiness of the Miura 5 small rocket. PLD Space said it is currently ramping up serial production for the Miura 5 using technology from a prototype rocket, with the aim of starting its test flight campaign by the end of 2025. Commercial flights of Miura 5 could begin in 2026 with the objective of scaling up to 30 launches per year by 2030. We shall see about that.

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China shooting for record number of launches. Early on Tuesday morning, a Long March 2D rocket lifted off from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert, Space News reports. The Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology, a state-owned rocket maker, announced the success of the launch, revealing the payload to be a satellite Internet technology test satellite. Tuesday’s mission was China’s 17th orbital launch of 2025, following the launch of the classified TJS-16 satellite into geosynchronous transfer orbit on March 29 via a Long March 7A rocket.

Shooting for a century … This puts the country on pace to launch 68 rockets for the year. This is in line with China’s total orbital launches for each of the last three years (64, 67, and 68 launches respectively). However, Chinese space watcher Andrew Jones believes the country may attempt to go as high as 100 launches this year. This would be driven by growing commercial activity, megaconstellation projects, and new launcher development. A number of new, medium-lift and potentially reusable rockets are targeting debut flights this year, he reports.

Falcon 9 launches first crewed polar mission. Four adventurers suited up and embarked on a first-of-a-kind trip to space Monday night, becoming the first humans to fly in polar orbit aboard a SpaceX crew capsule chartered by a Chinese-born cryptocurrency billionaire, Ars reports. Chun Wang, born in China and now a citizen of Malta, paid SpaceX an undisclosed sum for the opportunity to fly to space and bring three hand-picked crewmates along with him. He named his mission Fram2 in honor of the Norwegian exploration ship Fram used for polar expeditions at the turn of the 20th century.

Rocket follows an unusual trajectory … The Falcon 9 rocket launched from Kennedy Space Center. However, instead of heading to the northeast in pursuit of the International Space Station, the Falcon 9 and Dragon spacecraft departed Launch Complex 39A and arced to the southeast, then turned south on a flight path hugging Florida’s east coast. The unusual trajectory aligned the Falcon 9 with a perfectly polar orbit at an inclination of 90 degrees to the equator, bringing the four-person crew directly over the North or South Pole every 45 minutes. They are the first humans to orbit over the poles.

Amazon targets April 9 for first Kuiper launch. As soon as next week, Amazon plans to send 27 of its satellites into low Earth orbit on a United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket, Spaceflight Now reports. Launch is scheduled for Wednesday, April 9, during a three-hour window that opens at noon EDT (16: 00 UTC). “We’ve done extensive testing on the ground to prepare for this first mission, but there are some things you can only learn in flight, and this will be the first time we’ve flown our final satellite design and the first time we’ve deployed so many satellites at once,” said Rajeev Badyal, vice president of Project Kuiper.

Heaviest mission launched by an Atlas … This will be the first mission by United Launch Alliance of this year, and the company’s first in nearly half a year. But officials say that will change soon. In a February interview with Gary Wentz, ULA vice president of Government and Commercial Programs, said that the upcoming launch for Amazon, dubbed Kuiper 1 by ULA and Kuiper Atlas 1 (KA-01) by Amazon, was the first of many planned for the year. “We have quite a few Kuiper Atlases planned this year, as well as Kuiper Vulcans,” Wentz said. Atlas can carry 27 Kuiper satellites, and Vulcans can loft 45.

SpaceX tests previously flown Super Heavy booster. SpaceX is having trouble with Starship’s upper stage after back-to-back failures, but engineers are making remarkable progress with the rocket’s enormous booster. The most visible sign of SpaceX making headway with Starship’s first stage—called Super Heavy—came at 9: 40 am local time (10: 40 am EDT; 14: 40 UTC) Thursday at the company’s Starbase launch site in South Texas. With an unmistakable blast of orange exhaust, SpaceX fired up a Super Heavy booster that has already flown to the edge of space. The burn lasted approximately eight seconds, Ars reports.

Rocket will fly on next Starship test … This was the first time SpaceX has test-fired a “flight-proven” Super Heavy booster, and it paves the way for this particular rocket—designated Booster 14—to fly again soon. A reflight of Booster 14, which previously launched and returned to Earth in January, will happen on the next Starship launch, SpaceX confirmed Thursday. “This booster previously launched and returned on Flight 7 and 29 of its 33 Raptor engines are flight proven,” the company said. “The first Super Heavy reuse will be a step towards our goal of zero-touch reflight.” It is a legitimately and characteristically bold decision to refly a Starship booster on a test flight that SpaceX really needs to succeed. The next test may come late this month or more likely in May.

FAA closes big rocket mishap investigations. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) closed mishap investigations into both the SpaceX Starship flight and Blue Origin New Glenn debut that both took place on Jan. 16, Via Satellite reports. Although the FAA closed the mishap investigation regarding the January 16 Starship flight, the rocket is still grounded because there is still an open mishap investigation into the following March 7 flight. “There were no public injuries and one confirmed report of minor vehicle damage in the Turks and Caicos Islands,” the FAA said in a statement on the January 16 flight.

New Glenn closed out as well … The FAA also completed its mishap investigation of Blue Origin’s first New Glenn flight, which successfully deployed Blue Origin’s own space logistics vehicle Blue Ring. Blue Origin failed to recover the first stage booster, which triggered the mishap investigation. The first stage was not able to restart its engines, which prevented the reentry burn from occurring and caused the loss of the stage. Blue Origin has identified seven corrective actions, and the FAA will verify those have been implemented before the second mission. Blue Origin is targeting a return to flight in late spring and will attempt to land the booster again.

Artemis II one step closer to launch. The four astronauts who will fly on board NASA’s Artemis II mission unveiled the patch for their historic flight on Thursday. The four astronauts who will be the first to fly to the Moon under NASA’s Artemis campaign—Commander Reid Wiseman, pilot Victor Glover, and mission specialist Christina Koch from NASA, and mission specialist Jeremy Hansen from Canada—have designed an emblem to represent their mission that references both their distant destination and the home they will return to, the space agency said. It looks great!

Here’s what it means … “This patch designates the mission as “AII,” signifying not only the second major flight of the Artemis campaign, but also an endeavor of discovery that seeks to explore for all and by all. Framed in Apollo 8’s famous Earthrise photo, the scene of the Earth and the Moon represents the dual nature of human spaceflight, both equally compelling: The Moon represents our exploration destination, focused on discovery of the unknown. The Earth represents home, focused on the perspective we gain when we look back at our shared planet and learn what it is to be uniquely human. The orbit around Earth highlights the ongoing exploration missions that have enabled Artemis to set sights on a long-term presence on the Moon and soon, Mars.”

Next three launches

April 4: Falcon 9 | Starlink 11-13 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. | 01: 02 UTC

April 6: Falcon 9 | Starlink 6-72 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla. | 02: 40 UTC

April 7: Falcon 9 | Starlink 11-11 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 21: 35 UTC

Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA policy, and author of two books: Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX; and Reentry, on the development of the Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston.

Rocket Report: Next Starship flight to reuse booster; FAA clears New Glenn Read More »

Tuesday Telescope: A close-up of the magical camera at the end of a robotic arm

daily telescope, Space / Kelly Newman / April 1, 2025

Welcome to the Tuesday Telescope. There is a little too much darkness in this world and not enough light—a little too much pseudoscience and not enough science. We’ll let other publications offer you a daily horoscope. At Ars Technica, we’ll take a different route, finding inspiration from very real images of a universe that is filled with stars and wonder.

We’re back! A long-time reader and subscriber recently mentioned in the Ars Forums that they “kind of” missed the Daily Telescope posts that I used to write in 2023 and 2024. Although I would have preferred that everyone desperately missed the Daily Telescope, I appreciate the sentiment. I really do.

I initially stopped writing these posts about a year ago because it just became too much to commit to writing one thing every day. I mean, I could have done it. But doing so on the daily crossed over the line from enjoyable to drudgery, and one of the best things about working for Ars is that it tends very much toward the enjoyable side. Anyway, writing one of these posts on a weekly basis feels more sustainable. I guess we’ll find out!

Today’s image comes to you all the way from Mars. One of the most powerful tools on NASA’s Perseverance rover is the WATSON camera attached to the end of the rover’s robotic arm. In the fine tradition of tortured acronyms at the space agency, WATSON stands for Wide Angle Topographic Sensor for Operations and eNgineering. And because of course it is, WATSON is located on the SHERLOC (Scanning Habitable Environments with Raman and Luminescence for Organics and Chemicals) instrument. Seriously, NASA must stand for Not Another Screwball Acronym.

Tuesday Telescope: A close-up of the magical camera at the end of a robotic arm Read More »

NASA’s Curiosity rover has found the longest chain carbon molecules yet on Mars

Curiosity rover, mars rover, NASA, Science, Space, syndication / Shannon Garcia / March 30, 2025

NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover has detected the largest organic (carbon-containing) molecules ever found on the red planet. The discovery is one of the most significant findings in the search for evidence of past life on Mars. This is because, on Earth at least, relatively complex, long-chain carbon molecules are involved in biology. These molecules could actually be fragments of fatty acids, which are found in, for example, the membranes surrounding biological cells.

Scientists think that, if life ever emerged on Mars, it was probably microbial in nature. Because microbes are so small, it’s difficult to be definitive about any potential evidence for life found on Mars. Such evidence needs more powerful scientific instruments that are too large to be put on a rover.

The organic molecules found by Curiosity consist of carbon atoms linked in long chains, with other elements bonded to them, like hydrogen and oxygen. They come from a 3.7-billion-year-old rock dubbed Cumberland, encountered by the rover at a presumed dried-up lakebed in Mars’s Gale Crater. Scientists used the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument on the NASA rover to make their discovery.

Scientists were actually looking for evidence of amino acids, which are the building blocks of proteins and therefore key components of life as we know it. But this unexpected finding is almost as exciting. The research is published in Proceedings of the National Academies of Science.

Among the molecules were decane, which has 10 carbon atoms and 22 hydrogen atoms, and dodecane, with 12 carbons and 26 hydrogen atoms. These are known as alkanes, which fall under the umbrella of the chemical compounds known as hydrocarbons.

It’s an exciting time in the search for life on Mars. In March this year, scientists presented evidence of features in a different rock sampled elsewhere on Mars by the Perseverance rover. These features, dubbed “leopard spots” and “poppy seeds,” could have been produced by the action of microbial life in the distant past, or not. The findings were presented at a US conference and have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal.

NASA’s Curiosity rover has found the longest chain carbon molecules yet on Mars Read More »

NASA to put Starliner’s thrusters through an extensive workout before next launch

Space, starliner / Kelly Newman / March 29, 2025

More than half a year after an empty Starliner spacecraft safely landed in a New Mexico desert, NASA and Boeing still have not decided whether the vehicle’s next flight will carry any astronauts.

In an update this week, the US space agency said it is still working through the process to certify Starliner for human missions. Whether it carries cargo or humans, Starliner’s next flight will not occur until late this year or, more likely, sometime in 2026.

Two things stand out in the new information provided by NASA. First, there remains a lot of work left to do this year before Starliner will fly again, including extensive testing of the vehicle’s propulsion system. And secondly, it is becoming clear that Starliner will only ever fly a handful of missions to the space station, if that, before the orbiting laboratory is retired.

Long line of tests

Several issues marred Starliner’s first crew flight to the space station last June, but the most serious of these was the failure of multiple maneuvering thrusters. Concerns about these thrusters prompted NASA to fly Starliner’s crew, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, home on a Crew Dragon vehicle instead. They safely landed earlier this month.

Starliner returned autonomously in early September. Since then, NASA and Boeing have been reviewing data from the test flight. (Unfortunately, the errant thrusters were located on the service module of the spacecraft, which is jettisoned before reentry and was not recovered.)

Although engineers from NASA and Boeing have worked through more than 70 percent of the observations and anomalies that occurred during Starliner’s flight, the propulsion system issues remain unresolved.

NASA to put Starliner’s thrusters through an extensive workout before next launch Read More »

Rocket Report: Stoke is stoked; sovereignty is the buzzword in Europe

artemis II, european space agency, falcon 9, isar aerospace, launch, NASA, rocket lab, rocket report, Science, Space, space launch system, spacex, united launch alliance / Beth Washington / March 28, 2025

“The idea that we will be able to do it through America… I think is very, very doubtful.”

Stoke Space’s Andromeda upper stage engine is hot-fired on a test stand. Credit: Stoke Space

Welcome to Edition 7.37 of the Rocket Report! It’s been interesting to watch how quickly European officials have embraced ensuring they have a space launch capability independent of other countries. A few years ago, European government satellites regularly launched on Russian Soyuz rockets, and more recently on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets from the United States. Russia is now non grata in European government circles, and the Trump administration is widening the trans-Atlantic rift. European leaders have cited the Trump administration and its close association with Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, as prime reasons to support sovereign access to space, a capability currently offered only by Arianespace. If European nations can reform how they treat their commercial space companies, there’s enough ambition, know-how, and money in Europe to foster a competitive launch industry.

As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Isar Aerospace aims for weekend launch. A German startup named Isar Aerospace will try to launch its first rocket Saturday, aiming to become the first in a wave of new European launch companies to reach orbit, Ars reports. The Spectrum rocket consists of two stages, stands about 92 feet (28 meters) tall, and can haul payloads up to 1 metric ton (2,200 pounds) into low-Earth orbit. Based in Munich, Isar was founded by three university graduate students in 2018. Isar scrubbed a launch attempt Monday due to unfavorable winds at the launch site in Norway.

From the Arctic … Notably, this will be the first orbital launch attempt from a launch pad in Western Europe. The French-run Guiana Space Center in South America is the primary spaceport for European rockets. Virgin Orbit staged an airborne launch attempt from an airport in the United Kingdom in 2023, and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome is located in European Russia. The launch site for Isar is named Andøya Spaceport, located about 650 miles (1,050 kilometers) north of Oslo, inside the Arctic Circle. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

A chance for competition in Europe. The European Space Agency is inviting proposals to inject competition into the European launch market, an important step toward fostering a dynamic multiplayer industry officials hope one day will mimic that of the United States, Ars reports. The near-term plan for the European Launcher Challenge is for ESA to select companies for service contracts to transport ESA and other European government payloads to orbit from 2026 through 2030. A second component of the challenge is for companies to perform at least one demonstration of an upgraded launch vehicle by 2028. The competition is open to any European company working in the launch business.

Challenging the status quo … This is a major change from how ESA has historically procured launch services. Arianespace has been the only European launch provider available to ESA and other European institutions for more than 40 years. But there are private companies across Europe at various stages of developing their own small launchers, and potentially larger rockets, in the years ahead. With the European Launcher Challenge, ESA will provide each of the winners up to 169 million euros ($182 million), a significant cash infusion that officials hope will shepherd Europe’s nascent private launch industry toward liftoff. Companies like Isar Aerospace, Rocket Factory Augsburg, MaiaSpace, and PLD Space are among the contenders for ESA contracts.

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Rocket Lab launches eight satellites. Rocket Lab launched eight satellites Wednesday for a German company that is expanding its constellation to detect and track wildfires, Space News reports. An Electron rocket lifted off from New Zealand and completed deploying its payload of eight CubeSats for OroraTech about 55 minutes later, placing them into Sun-synchronous orbits at an altitude of about 341 miles (550 kilometers). This was Rocket Lab’s fifth launch of the year, and the third in less than two weeks.

Fire goggles … OroraTech launched three satellites before this mission, fusing data from those satellites and government missions to detect and track wildfires. The new satellites are designed to fill a gap in coverage in the afternoon, a peak time for wildfire formation and spread. OroraTech plans to launch eight more satellites later this year. Wildfire monitoring from space is becoming a new application for satellite technology. Last month, OroraTech partnered with Spire for a contract to build a CubeSat constellation called WildFireSat for the Canadian Space Agency. Google is backing FireSat, another constellation of more than 50 satellites to be deployed in the coming years to detect and track wildfires. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Should Britain have a sovereign launch capability? A UK House of Lords special inquiry committee has heard from industry experts on the importance of fostering a sovereign launch capability, European Spaceflight reports. On Monday, witnesses from the UK space industry testified that the nation shouldn’t rely on others, particularly the United States, to put satellites into orbit. “The idea that we will be able to do it through America… certainly in today’s, you know, the last 50 days, I think is very, very doubtful. The UK needs access to space,” said Scott Hammond, deputy CEO of SaxaVord Spaceport in Scotland.

Looking inward … A representative from one of the most promising UK launch startups agreed. “Most people who are looking to launch are beholden to the United States solutions or services that are there,” said Alan Thompson, head of government affairs at Skyrora. “Without having our own home-based or UK-based service provider, we risk not having that voice and not being able to undertake all these experiments or be able to manifest ourselves better in space.” The UK is the only nation to abandon an independent launch capability after putting a satellite into orbit. The British government canceled the Black Arrow rocket in the early 1970s, citing financial reasons. A handful of companies, including Skyrora, is working to restore the orbital launch business to the UK.

This rocket engine CEO faces some salacious allegations. The Independent published what it described as an exclusive report Monday describing a lawsuit filed against the CEO of RocketStar, a New York-based company that says its mission is “improving upon the engines that power us to the stars.” Christopher Craddock is accused of plundering investor funds to underwrite pricey jaunts to Europe, jewelry for his wife, child support payments, and, according to the company’s largest investor, “airline tickets for international call girls to join him for clandestine weekends in Miami,” The Independent reports. Craddock established RocketStar in 2014 after financial regulators barred him from working on Wall Street over a raft of alleged violations.

Go big or go home … The $6 million lawsuit filed by former CEO Michael Mojtahedi alleges RocketStar “is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme… [that] has been predicated on Craddock’s ability to con new people each time the company has run out of money.” On its website, RocketStar says its work focuses on aerospike rocket engines and a “FireStar Fusion Drive, the world’s first electric propulsion device enhanced with nuclear fusion.” These are tantalizing technologies that have proven elusive for other rocket companies. RocketStar’s attorney told The Independent: “The company denies the allegations and looks forward to vindicating itself in court.”

Another record for SpaceX. Last Thursday, SpaceX launched a batch of clandestine SpaceX-built surveillance satellites for the National Reconnaissance Office from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, Spaceflight Now reports. This was the latest in a series of flights populating the NRO’s constellation of low-Earth orbit reconnaissance satellites. What was unique about this mission was its use of a Falcon 9 first stage booster that flew to space just nine days prior with a NASA astronomy satellite. The successful launch broke the record for the shortest span between flights of the same Falcon 9 booster, besting a 13.5-day turnaround in November 2024.

A mind-boggling number of launches … This flight also marked the 450th launch of a Falcon 9 rocket since its debut in 2010, and the 139th within a 365-day period, despite suffering its first mission failure in nearly 10 years and a handful of other glitches. SpaceX’s launch pace is unprecedented in the history of the space industry. No one else is even close. In the last Rocket Report I authored, I wrote that SpaceX’s steamroller no longer seems to be rolling downhill. That may be the case as the growth in the Falcon 9 launch cadence has slowed, but it’s hard for me to see anyone else matching SpaceX’s launch rate until at least the 2030s.

Rocket Lab and Stoke Space find an on-ramp. Space Systems Command announced Thursday that it selected Rocket Lab and Stoke Space to join the Space Force’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program. The contracts have a maximum value of $5.6 billion, and the Space Force will dole out “task orders” for individual missions as they near launch. Rocket Lab and Stoke Space join SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin as eligible launch providers for lower-priority national security satellites, a segment of missions known as Phase 3 Lane 1 in the parlance of the Space Force. For these missions, the Space Force won’t require certification of the rockets, as the military does for higher-value missions in the so-called “Lane 2” segment. However, Rocket Lab and Stoke Space must complete at least one successful flight of their new Neutron and Nova rockets before they are cleared to launch national security payloads.

Stoked at Stoke … This is a big win for Rocket Lab and Stoke. For Rocket Lab, it bolsters the business case for the medium-class Neutron rocket it is developing for flights from Wallops Island, Virginia. Neutron will be partially reusable with a recoverable first stage. But Rocket Lab already has a proven track record with its smaller Electron launch vehicle. Stoke hasn’t launched anything, and it has lofty ambitions for a fully reusable two-stage rocket called Nova. This is a huge vote of confidence in Stoke. When the Space Force released its invitation for an on-ramp to the NSSL program last year, it said bidders must show a “credible plan for a first launch by December 2025.” Smart money is that neither company will launch its rockets by the end of this year, but I’d love to be proven wrong.

Falcon 9 deploys spy satellite. Monday afternoon, a SpaceX Falcon 9 took flight from Florida’s Space Coast and delivered a national security payload designed, built, and operated by the National Reconnaissance Office into orbit, Florida Today reports. Like almost all NRO missions, details about the payload are classified. The mission codename was NROL-69, and the launch came three-and-a-half days after SpaceX launched another NRO mission from California. While we have some idea of what SpaceX launched from California last week, the payload for the NROL-69 mission is a mystery.

Space sleuthing … There’s an online community of dedicated skywatchers who regularly track satellites as they sail overhead around dawn and dusk. The US government doesn’t publish the exact orbital parameters for its classified spy satellites (they used to), but civilian trackers coordinate with one another, and through a series of observations, they can produce a pretty good estimate of a spacecraft’s orbit. Marco Langbroek, a Dutch archeologist and university lecturer on space situational awareness, is one of the best at this, using publicly available information about the flight path of a launch to estimate when the satellite will fly overhead. He and three other observers in Europe managed to locate the NROL-69 payload just two days after the launch, plotting the object in an orbit between 700 and 1,500 kilometers at an inclination of 64.1 degrees to the equator. Analysts speculated this mission might carry a pair of naval surveillance spacecraft, but this orbit doesn’t match up well with any known constellations of NRO satellites.

NASA continues with Artemis II preps. Late Saturday night, technicians at Kennedy Space Center in Florida moved the core stage for NASA’s second Space Launch System rocket into position between the vehicle’s two solid-fueled boosters, Ars reports. Working inside the iconic 52-story-tall Vehicle Assembly Building, ground teams used heavy-duty cranes to first lift the butterscotch orange core stage from its cradle, then rotate it to a vertical orientation and lift it into a high bay, where it was lowered into position on a mobile launch platform. The 212-foot-tall (65-meter) core stage is the largest single hardware element for the Artemis II mission, which will send a team of four astronauts around the far side of the Moon and back to Earth as soon as next year.

Looking like a go … With this milestone, the slow march toward launch continues. A few months ago, some well-informed people in the space community thought there was a real possibility the Trump administration could quickly cancel NASA’s Space Launch System, the high-priced heavy-lifter designed to send astronauts from the Earth to the Moon. The most immediate possibility involved terminating the SLS program before it flies with Artemis II. This possibility appears to have been overcome by circumstances. The rockets most often mentioned as stand-ins for the Space Launch System—SpaceX’s Starship and Blue Origin’s New Glenn—aren’t likely to be cleared for crew missions for at least several years. The long-term future of the Space Launch System remains in doubt.

Space Force says Vulcan is good to go. The US Space Force on Wednesday announced that it has certified United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket to conduct national security missions, Ars reports. “Assured access to space is a core function of the Space Force and a critical element of national security,” said Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, program executive officer for Assured Access to Space, in a news release. “Vulcan certification adds launch capacity, resiliency, and flexibility needed by our nation’s most critical space-based systems.” The formal announcement closes a yearslong process that has seen multiple delays in the development of the Vulcan rocket, as well as two anomalies in recent years that were a further setback to certification.

Multiple options … This certification allows ULA’s Vulcan to launch the military’s most sensitive national security missions, a separate lot from those Rocket Lab and Stoke Space are now eligible for (as we report in a separate Rocket Report entry). It elevates Vulcan to launch these missions alongside SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. Vulcan will not be the next rocket that the company launches, however. First up is one of the company’s remaining Atlas V boosters, carrying Project Kuiper broadband satellites for Amazon. This launch could occur in April, although ULA has not set a date. This will be followed by the first Vulcan national security launch, which the Space Force says could occur during the coming “summer.”

Next three launches

March 29: Spectrum | “Going Full Spectrum” | Andøya Spaceport, Norway | 11: 30 UTC

March 29: Long March 7A | Unknown Payload | Wenchang Space Launch Site, China | 16: 05 UTC

March 30: Alpha | LM-400 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 13: 37 UTC

Rocket Report: Stoke is stoked; sovereignty is the buzzword in Europe Read More »

As NASA faces cuts, China reveals ambitious plans for planetary exploration

china, NASA, Planetary exploration, Space / Beth Washington / March 28, 2025

All of these grand Chinese plans come as NASA faces budget cuts. Although nothing is final, Ars reported earlier this year that some officials in the Trump administration want to cut science programs at the US space agency by as much as 50 percent, and that would include significant reductions for planetary science. Such cuts, one planetary officials told Ars, would represent an “extinction level” event for space science and exploration in the United States.

This raises the prospect that the United States could cede the lead in space exploration to China in the coming decades.

So what will happen?

To date, the majority of China’s space science objectives have been successful, bringing credibility to a government that sees space exploration as a projection of its soft power. By becoming a major actor in space and surpassing the United States in some areas, China can both please its own population and become a more attractive partner to other countries around the world.

However, if there are high-profile (and to some in China’s leadership, embarrassing) failures, would China be so willing to fund such an ambitious program? With the objectives listed above, China would be attempting some unprecedented and technically demanding missions. Some of them, certainly, will face setbacks.

Additionally, China is also investing in a human lunar program, seeking to land its own astronauts on the surface of the Moon by 2030. Simultaneously funding ambitious human and robotic programs would very likely require significantly more resources than the government has invested to date. How deep are China’s pockets?

It’s probably safe to say, therefore, that some of these mission concepts and time frames are aspirational.

At the same time, the US Congress is likely to block some of the deepest cuts in planetary exploration, should they be proposed by the Trump administration. So NASA still has a meaningful future in planetary exploration. And if companies like K2 are successful in lowering the cost of satellite buses, the combination of lower-cost launch and planetary missions would allow NASA to do more with less in deep space.

The future, therefore, has yet to be won. But when it comes to deep space planetary exploration, NASA, for the first time since the 1960s, has a credible challenger.

As NASA faces cuts, China reveals ambitious plans for planetary exploration Read More »

After a spacecraft was damaged en route to launch, NASA says it won’t launch

Cygnus, dragon, Space / Shannon Garcia / March 27, 2025

Three weeks ago, NASA revealed that a shipping container protecting a Cygnus spacecraft sustained “damage” while traveling to the launch site in Florida.

Built by Northrop Grumman, Cygnus is one of two Western spacecraft currently capable of delivering food, water, experiments, and other supplies to the International Space Station. This particular Cygnus mission, NG-22, had been scheduled for June. As part of its statement in early March, the space agency said it was evaluating the NG-22 Cygnus cargo supply mission along with Northrop.

On Wednesday, after a query from Ars Technica, the space agency acknowledged that the Cygnus spacecraft designated for NG-22 is too damaged to fly, at least in the nearterm.

Loading up Dragon

“Following initial evaluation, there also is damage to the cargo module,” the agency said in a statement. “The International Space Station Program will continue working with Northrop Grumman to assess whether the Cygnus cargo module is able to safely fly to the space station on a future flight.” That future flight, NG-23, will launch no earlier than this fall.

As a result, NASA is modifying the cargo on its next cargo flight to the space station, the 32nd SpaceX Cargo Dragon mission, due to launch in April. The agency says it will “add more consumable supplies and food to help ensure sufficient reserves of supplies aboard the station” to the Dragon vehicle.

As it mulls stopgap measures, one option available to NASA may be to try to slot in a cargo mission on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft. After the propulsion issues experienced on Starliner’s first crew flight to the space station last June, NASA is still evaluating whether the vehicle can be certified for an operational crew mission, or whether it would be better to perform an uncrewed test flight.

After a spacecraft was damaged en route to launch, NASA says it won’t launch Read More »

With Vulcan’s certification, Space Force is no longer solely reliant on SpaceX

Space, united launch alliance, US Space Force, vulcan rocket / Shannon Garcia / March 27, 2025

The US Space Force on Wednesday announced that it has certified United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket to conduct national security missions.

“Assured access to space is a core function of the Space Force and a critical element of national security,” said Brig. Gen. Panzenhagen, program executive officer for Assured Access to Space, in a news release. “Vulcan certification adds launch capacity, resiliency, and flexibility needed by our nation’s most critical space-based systems.”

The formal announcement closes a yearslong process that has seen multiple delays in the development of the Vulcan rocket, as well as two anomalies in recent years that were a further setback to certification.

The first of these, an explosion on a test stand in northern Alabama during the spring of 2023, delayed the first test flight of Vulcan by several months. Then, in October 2024, during the second test flight of the rocket, a nozzle on one of the Vulcan’s two side-mounted boosters failed.

A cumbersome process

This nozzle issue, more than five months ago, compounded the extensive paperwork needed to certify Vulcan for the US Department of Defense’s most sensitive missions. The military has several options for companies to certify their rockets depending on the number of flights completed, which could be two, three, or more. The fewer the flights, the more paperwork and review that must be done. For Vulcan, this process entailed:

52 certification criteria
more than 180 discrete tasks
2 certification flight demonstrations
60 payload interface requirement verifications
18 subsystem design and test reviews
114 hardware and software audits

That sounds like a lot of work, but at least the military’s rules and regulations are straightforward and simple to navigate, right? Anyway, the certification process is complete, elevating United Launch Alliance to fly national security missions alongside SpaceX with its fleet of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets.

With Vulcan’s certification, Space Force is no longer solely reliant on SpaceX Read More »

Firm wins Space Force funding to provide an “aircraft carrier” in orbit

gravitics, orbital carrier, Space, space force / 9u50fv / March 26, 2025

In recent years the US military has made much of a concept known as tactically responsive launch. This essentially means that if there is some rapidly developing threat in space—say an adversary takes out a key national defense satellite—the military would like the capability to rapidly fuel a satellite on Earth, mate it to a rocket, and launch it into space.

The US Space Force first demonstrated this tactically responsive capability with a launch on Firefly’s Alpha rocket in 2023. As part of this “Victus Nox” test flight, a satellite was encapsulated into a payload fairing and mated to the rocket and completed all final launch preparations within 27 hours.

But what if there were an even faster way to respond? That’s the vision behind a new, $60 million federal award to a new space company named Gravitics for a concept called an orbital carrier.

“In many ways it’s kind of like what an aircraft carrier does,” said Jon Goff, director of advanced concepts for the Seattle-based company.

Shielding satellites

In interviews about the concept with Ars, company officials were fairly vague about specific details of what orbital carriers will be able to do. A news release published on Wednesday morning, highlighting the Strategic Funding Increase, or STRATFI grant from the United States Space Force, also lacks specifics. The Space Force would prefer to keep the vehicle’s operational capabilities under wraps.

But in general, the idea is to provide an unpressurized module in which one or more satellites can be pre-positioned in orbit.

Such a module would isolate the satellites from the space environment, sparing their batteries and sensitive electronics from harsh thermal cycles every 90 minutes, and provide some shielding from radiation. In addition the orbital carrier would obfuscate the satellites inside from observation by other nations or hostile actors in space. Then, when a satellite is needed, it can be deployed into multiple orbits by the carrier.

Firm wins Space Force funding to provide an “aircraft carrier” in orbit Read More »

ESA finally has a commercial launch strategy, but will member states pay?

Commercial space, Europe, european space agency, launch, Science, Space / Beth Washington / March 26, 2025

Late this year, European governments will have the opportunity to pay up or shut up.

The European Space Agency is inviting proposals to inject competition into the European launch market, an important step toward fostering a dynamic multiplayer industry officials hope, one day, will mimic that of the United States.

The near-term plan for the European Launcher Challenge is for ESA to select companies for service contracts to transport ESA and other European government payloads to orbit from 2026 through 2030. A second component of the challenge is for companies to perform at least one demonstration of an upgraded launch vehicle by 2028. The competition is open to any European company working in the launch business.

“What we expect is that these companies will make a step in improving and upgrading their capacity with respect to what they’re presently working on,” said Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA’s acting director of space transportation. “In terms of economics and physics, it’s better to have a bigger launcher than a smaller launcher in terms of price per kilogram to orbit.”

“The ultimate goal is, we should be establishing privately developed competitive launch services in Europe, which will allow us to procure launch services in open competition,” Tolker-Nielsen said in an interview with Ars.

From one to many?

ESA and other European institutions currently have just one European provider, Arianespace, to award launch contracts for the continent’s scientific, Earth observation, navigation, and military satellites. Arianespace operates the Ariane 6 and Vega C rockets. Vega C operations will soon be taken over by Italian aerospace company Avio. Both rockets were developed with ESA funding.

The launcher challenge is modeled on NASA’s use of commercial contracting methods beginning nearly 20 years ago with the agency’s commercial cargo program, which kickstarted the development of SpaceX’s Dragon and Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus resupply freighters for the International Space Station. NASA later applied the same model to commercial crew, and most recently for commercial lunar landers.

Uncharacteristically for ESA, the agency is taking a hands-off approach for the launcher challenge. One of the few major requirements is that the winners should offer a “European launch service” that flies from European territory, which includes the French-run Guiana Space Center in South America.

Europe’s second Ariane 6 rocket lifted off March 6 with a French military spy satellite. Credit: European Space Agency

“We are trying something different, where they are completely free to organize themselves,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “We are not pushing anything. We are in a complete service-oriented model here. That’s the principal difference between the new approach and the old approach.”

ESA also isn’t setting requirements on launcher performance, reusability, or the exact number of companies it will select in the challenge. But ESA would like to limit the number of challengers “to a minimum” to ensure the agency’s support is meaningful, without spreading its funding too thin, Tolker-Nielsen said.

“For the ESA-developed launchers, which are Ariane 6 and Vega C, we own the launch system,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “We finished the development, and the deliverables were the launch systems that we own at ESA, and we make it available to an operator—Arianespace, and Avio soon for Vega C—to exploit.”

These ESA-led launcher projects were expensive. The development of Ariane 6 cost European governments more than $4 billion. Ariane 6 is now flying, but none of the up-and-coming European alternatives is operational.

Next steps

It has taken a while to set up the European Launcher Challenge, which won preliminary approval from ESA’s 23 member states at a ministerial-level meeting in 2023. ESA released an “invitation to tender,” soliciting proposals from European launch companies Monday, with submissions due by May 5. This summer, ESA expects to select the top proposals and prepare a funding package for consideration by its member states at the next ministerial meeting in November.

The top factors ESA will consider in this first phase of the challenge are each proposer’s business plan, technical credibility, and financial credibility.

In a statement, ESA said it has allotted up to 169 million euros ($182 million at today’s exchange rates) per challenger. This is significant funding for Europe’s crop of cash-hungry launch startups, each of which has raised no more than a few hundred million euros. But this allotment comes with a catch. ESA’s leaders and the winners of the launch challenge must persuade their home governments to pay up.

Let’s take a moment to compare Europe’s launch industry with that of the United States.

There are multiple viable US commercial launch companies. In the United States, it’s easier to attract venture capital, the government has been a more reliable proponent of commercial spaceflight, and billionaires are part of the launch landscape. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, dominates the market. Jeff Bezos’s space company, Blue Origin, and United Launch Alliance are also big players with heavy-lift rockets.

Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace fly smaller, privately developed launchers. Northrop Grumman’s medium-class launch division is currently in between rockets, although it still occasionally launches small US military satellites on Minotaur rockets derived from decommissioned ICBMs.

Of course, it’s not surprising the sum of US launch companies is higher than in Europe. According to the World Bank, the US economy is about 50 percent larger than the European Union’s. But six American companies with operational orbital rockets, compared to one in Europe today? That is woefully out of proportion.

European officials would like to regain a leading position in the global commercial launch market. With SpaceX’s dominance, that’s a tall hill to climb. At the very least, European politicians don’t want to rely on other countries for access to space. In the last three years, they’ve seen their access to Russian launchers dry up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and after signing a few launch contracts with SpaceX to bridge the gap before the first flight of Ariane 6, they now view the US government and Elon Musk as unreliable partners.

Open your checkbook, please

ESA’s governance structure isn’t favorable for taking quick action. On one hand, ESA member states approve the agency’s budget in multiyear increments, giving its projects a sense of stability over time. However, it takes time to get new projects approved, and ESA’s member states expect to receive benefits—jobs, investment, and infrastructure—commensurate with their spending on European space programs. This policy is known as geographical return, or geo-return.

For example, France has placed a high strategic importance on fielding an independent European launch capability for more than 60 years. The administration of French President Charles de Gaulle made this determination during the Cold War, around the same time he decided France should have a nuclear deterrent fully independent of the United States and NATO.

In order to match this policy, France has been more willing than other European nations to invest in launchers. This means the Ariane rocket family, developed and funded through ESA contracts, has been largely a French enterprise since the first Ariane launch in 1979.

This model is becoming antiquated in the era of commercial spaceflight. Startups across Europe, primarily in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Spain, are developing small launchers designed to carry up to 1.5 metric tons of payload to low-Earth orbit. This is too small to directly compete with the Ariane 6 rocket, but eventually, these companies would like to develop larger launchers.

Some European officials, including the former head of the French space agency, blamed geo-return as a reason the Ariane 6 rocket missed its price target.

Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA’s acting director of space transportation, speaks at an event in 2021. Credit: ESA/V. Stefanelli

With the European Launcher Challenge, ESA will experiment with a new funding model for the first time. This new “fair contribution” approach will see ESA leadership put forward a plan to its member states at the next big ministerial conference in November. The space agency will ask the countries that benefit most from the winners of the launcher challenge to provide the bulk of the funding for the challengers’ contracts.

So, let’s say Isar Aerospace, which is set to launch its first rocket as soon as this week, is one of the challenge winners. Isar is headquartered in Munich, and its current launch site is in Norway. In this case, expect ESA to ask the governments of Germany and Norway to contribute the most money to pay for Isar’s contract.

MaiaSpace, a French subsidiary of ArianeGroup, the parent company of Arianespace, is also a contender in the launcher challenge. MaiaSpace plans to launch from French Guiana. Therefore, if MaiaSpace gets a contract, France would be on the hook for the lion’s share of the deal’s funding.

Tolker-Nielsen said he anticipates a “number” of the launch challengers will win the backing of their home countries in November, but “maybe not all.”

“So, first there is this criteria that they have to be eligible, and then they have to be funded as well,” he said. “We don’t want to propose funding for companies that we don’t see as credible.”

Assuming the challengers’ contracts get funded, ESA will then work with the European Commission to assign specific satellites to launch on the new commercial rockets.

“The way I look at this is we are not going to choose winners,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “The challenge is not the competition we are doing right now. It is to deliver on the contract. That’s the challenge.”

ESA finally has a commercial launch strategy, but will member states pay? Read More »